NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 9
Hey guys. I have a new DFS-focused column coming out Saturdays on PFF. Make sure you check that out. I’m really excited about it.
Anyway, here are my top plays of the slate:
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB1, FD: QB1]
Through eight weeks Mahomes has scored 243.9 DraftKings fantasy points. Among quarterbacks, only Peyton Manning in his famed 2013 season has ever scored more through the first eight weeks of the season, and just by 3.3 fantasy points. At $7,100, Mahomes is the highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings this week, but that’s also over $2,100 less than Manning’s average salary in 2014. The matchup isn’t ideal but I don’t think that matters. Mahomes has scored over 28.0 DraftKings fantasy points in six of eight games. The two games he didn’t were two of the most difficult matchups a quarterback could have, and he was still highly effective – 25.9 DKFP at Denver and 20.8 DKFP against Jacksonville. Actually, he wasn’t just effective, he was again historically great. His 313 passing yards against Jacksonville was the most they have allowed since the 2016 season. His 304 passing yards against Denver was the most by a road quarterback against them since the 2014 season.
Cam Newton [DK: QB2, FD: QB2] / Ryan Fitzpatrick [DK: QB14, FD: QB16]
The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on pace to be the worst pass defense of the past decade, and it’s not even close. They’re on pace to set records in passing yards allowed (5,323), passing touchdowns allowed (45.7), yards allowed per attempt (8.76), completion percentage allowed (73.7%), interceptions surrendered (2.29), and opposing passer rating (123.5). Now they get Cam Newton – who is just 0.2 fantasy points per game away from his career high from 2015 (when he won the MVP) and ranks third at the position in FanDuel fantasy points per game, behind only Mahomes and… Ryan Fitzpatrick.
If combined into one player, Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston are averaging more fantasy points per game than any single quarterback ever. The 2018 Buccaneers are just four yards away from the record set by the 2000 “Greatest Show On Turf” Rams for most passing yards by a team through their first seven games of the season. Fitzpatrick, of course, has also been the far more efficient one of the two, leading the league in passer rating and ranking second-best in PFF grade, while Winston ranks 29th and 31st, respectively.
Drew Brees [DK: QB5, FD: QB3] / Jared Goff [DK: QB6, FD: QB4]
As Adam Levitan showed here, in games with an over/under this high, it’s really hard for the quarterbacks involved not to “smash”. The over/under being so high as well as the close spread (+/- 1.5) both imply Vegas thinks this is going to be a pass-heavy shootout.
As for Goff, this seems to be the matchup we’ve all been waiting for – one where he’ll finally be forced to pass. Over the past two seasons, Goff ranks fifth-best in fantasy points per dropback and second-best in adjusted net yards per attempt, but just 27th (of 31 quarterbacks) in dropbacks per game. A pass-heavy approach makes sense given New Orleans is the toughest offense they’ve faced all year, or at least since Week 4 against the Vikings (when Goff dropped 465 yards and five touchdowns). The Saints are also the league’s most-egregious pass funnel defense. They rank best in the league in yards per carry allowed (2.87) and rushing yards allowed per game (50.4), while ranking fifth-worst in passing yards allowed per game (315.7). In fact 80% of their yardage allowed has come via the pass (most), and they rank bottom-three in opposing passer rating and fantasy points allowed per dropback.
Brees is a tougher sell, or, at least tough as far as ““Brees favored at home with a 31.0-point total” goes. With Mark Ingram back, New Orleans has shifted back towards their run-heavy approach from 2017, and especially in the red zone (with Taysom Hill also stealing those valuable snaps). Of course, positive game-script played an important factor, but this is also how you’d want to attack the Rams: on the ground. Over the past two seasons, Los Angeles ranks second-worst in yards per carry allowed (4.72) but sixth-best in opposing passer rating (82.6). Still, he’s Drew Brees, favored at home, with a close spread and a 31.0-point total.
Other: Nope
Running Backs
Todd Gurley [DK: RB1, FD: RB1] & Alvin Kamara [DK: RB6, FD: RB4]
In the section above, I wanted to highlight all of the top quarterback plays of the week, because I think that’s the key to this slate. I genuinely think Jared Goff and Drew Brees are great plays, but I personally won’t be going in that direction with my own lineups. Instead, I want most of my exposure to that game through the running backs.
In each of the past two seasons, in addition to fantasy points per game, Gurley also leads all players at all positions in: expected fantasy point market share, yardage market share, touchdown market share, and touchdown market share. Over the past two seasons, he’s seen 35% of the Rams’ total yards and 47% of their total touchdowns. That’s despite missing one game and routinely getting taken out at some point during their league-high eight 20-plus-point victories over this span. What does this mean? It means if you think the Rams hit their 29.25-point total, Gurley is still the one you want to own.
Yes, he’s the highest-priced player on both sites. Okay, that’s true. However, based on his production, he’s still underpriced. He has scored 240.1 fantasy points this season, or the second-most by any player at any position through eight weeks all-time. He’s only $9,500 on DraftKings. I count 27 instances of a player being as-or-more expensive over the past two seasons.
Similarly, Kamara ranks behind only Gurley and Melvin Gordon in fantasy points per game, and behind only Gurley in expected fantasy points per game, expected touchdowns per game, and expected fantasy point market share. Of course, Ingram’s absence plays a role, but maybe by less than you’d think. Over Kamara’s last seven healthy games (didn’t leave early, wasn’t on the injury report) with Ingram in the lineup, he averages 18.2 expected fantasy points, 19.2 actual fantasy points, and 0.77 expected touchdowns per game. Ingram averages only 10.3, 12.0, and 0.30, respectively. Over the past two weeks. Kamara also out-totals Ingram in carries (30 to 25), targets (10 to five), and carries inside the five- (three to zero) and 10-yard-lines (six to two). Ingram is still very in play and might burn me, but I’ll be trying to pay up for Kamara.
Other: Mike Davis (if Chris Carson is out), Austin Ekeler (if Melvin Gordon is out), Phillip Lindsay (if Royce Freeman is out), Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Kareem Hunt, Peyton Barber, Jordan Howard
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers in Improved Situations
Courtland Sutton is going to draw hefty ownership, and it’s not without good reason. Per Ian Rapoport, “It’s Sutton’s time.” Per Jeff Darlington, “Denver believes Sutton is ready to be a star.” With Demaryius Thomas and his 7.0 targets per game now out of the picture, it looks like it’s Sutton’s time to shine. Sutton hasn’t seen great target volume but does rank fifth in end-zone target market share (42%). He also has the matchup in his favor, up against Houston. The Texans are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers lined up to the left, which is where Sutton runs over half of his routes.
One of the secret keys to this slate might be the value boost to Tampa Bay’s wide receivers via Ryan Fitzpatrick. As I’ve ranted about elsewhere, Jameis Winston is one of the league’s most-efficient quarterbacks when targeting tight ends and one of the league’s league efficient quarterbacks when targeting wide receivers. Of course, this carries over to production as well. Since Winston entered the league in 2015, there have been 24 quarterbacks to attempt at least 1,200 passes. Over this span, 30.1% of Winston’s passing fantasy points have come when targeting tight ends, which ranks fourth-most of those 24 quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick ranks last with 8.3%. Meanwhile, 78.4% of Fitzpatrick’s passing fantasy points have come when targeting wide receivers (most), while Winston’s 56.7% ranks sixth-lowest. Using 2018’s numbers, DeSean Jackson averages 21.9- and Mike Evans averages 27.6 fantasy points per 40 pass attempts with Fitzpatrick. That’s, respectively, +13.6 and +14.7 more than with Winston.
Golden Tate ‘s departure is a huge boost to the fantasy stock of both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Both rank top-30 at the position in fantasy points per game, despite Tate soaking up 9.9 targets per game and a 25.5% target market share. Both are very in play, but I lean Golladay due to matchup. Marvin Jones projects to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes for the entirety of Sunday’s game. Yes, Jones caught five balls for 92 yards and two scores when lined up against him last Thanksgiving, but in his other three games against Rhodes, Jones totals only three catches for 50 yards (on 10 targets and 67 routes). Golladay should have the softer draw against Trae Waynes and Jayron Kearse.
Willie Snead [DK: WR39, FD: WR43]
Snead has seen at least seven targets in each of his last five games. Over his last three games he averages a team-high 9.3 targets per game and 16.4 expected fantasy points per game (ninth-most among all wide receivers). He also has one of the best matchups of the week, against a Steelers defense that is giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers (where Snead runs 83% of his routes). I’m pretty sure Snead is one of the most glaring values of the week, and it seems the rest of the industry has missed it. He’s just the 34th-most-tagged player on FanShareSports.
Other: DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Michael Thomas, Devin Funchess, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tre’Quan Smith, Jarvis Landry, Danny Amendola,
Tight Ends
The tight end position has been brutal all year, and is especially brutal this week. That’s why paying up for Kelce makes sense. He leads all main slate tight ends in fantasy points per game by 5.7. He’s the lone dependable option this week and isn’t terribly priced… Despite admitting Fitzpatrick might be a knock to Tampa Bay’s tight ends, I still like O.J. Howard quite a bit. Howard is our single highest-graded tight end this year and averages 14.0 fantasy points per game in games he started and finished (fifth-best). His matchup this week couldn’t be better, against a Carolina defense that ranks last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends… If you wanted to completely punt the position I wouldn’t blame you. If so, I’d be looking at names like Ryan Griffin, Michael Roberts, and Jeff Heuerman …