NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 43.5 | 18 | -7.5 | 43.5 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 24 | 13 | 15 | Offense | 29.6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.7 | 13 | 24 | 25 | Opp. Defense | 19.4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 11 | 29 | 10 | Denver Broncos | 12 | 1 | 7 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 50 | 30 | 0 | 389 | Hill | 49 | 36 | 3 | 515 | |
| Sanders | 42 | 25 | 2 | 266 | Robinson | 16 | 9 | 0 | 110 | |
| Fowler | 29 | 18 | 2 | 185 | Wilson | 21 | 17 | 2 | 221 | |
| Green | 10 | 8 | 1 | 104 | Kelce | 49 | 37 | 3 | 423 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN WR) – Questionable but unlikely to play (Ankle)
DEN Matchup Rating: 3.0
KC Matchup Rating: 5.5
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Trevor Siemian is still the starting quarterback for the Broncos, but his hold on the job is tenuous at best after the Broncos couldn’t score a single point against the Chargers last week. Now, they have to travel into Kansas City in a tough environment for a Monday night game. Siemian is not a fantasy option in any format, even on the two game slates. There’s way too much risk compared to the potential reward.
Running Backs: C.J. Anderson has been a massive disappointment for two straight weeks now, and he has slowly seen his snaps decline a little bit. He has been at 47% and 59% over the last two games, and the coaching staff has at least paid lip service to getting Jamaal Charles more involved. Maybe that happens this week as Charles faces off with his former team. It’s hard to trust this backfield right now, and on the Sunday/Monday slates, you can’t put this backfield above Le’Veon Bell and/or Kareem Hunt. That said, it’s not like you can just pay up for all the studs and lock in a lineup. Antonio Brown is going to be my big fade on those slates, so I will pay for the RB options. If you have to go for a guy here, Anderson is still the target, but it’s hard to trust him right now.
Pass Catchers: Emmanuel Sanders is not yet practicing as of Thursday, so it would be a surprise to see him suit up this week. That means that we will likely see a heavy dose of Demaryius Thomas, though he disappointed the world with a poor game at high ownership last week. The struggles of Trevor Siemian are a concern, but the Broncos should scheme to keep Thomas away from Marcus Peters (who doesn’t shadow), and Thomas should see double figure targets here. That is especially true with this being a game where the Broncos will likely fall behind. If Sanders is out, perhaps a dart throw for value could be made on a guy like Bennie Fowler or Jordan Taylor, both of whom played heavy snaps last week with Sanders out. It’s hard for me to get behind A.J. Derby at tight end, but he’s there as a low end option if you need it. On the Sunday/Monday slates, it is viable with the only good tight end option being Kelce on the other side of this game.
The Takeaway: Don’t expect miracles here. Denver has a meager 18 point implied team total, and the Chiefs defense is the strongest play from this game. On the full week slates, you can safely avoid the Denver offense. On the shorter slates, Demaryius Thomas stands out as the top play, followed by potential value options with the other members of the pass catching group. Don’t get too carried away here.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: If you are like me, you envision this game as somewhat of a defensive slugfest. However, Vegas has the Chiefs pegged with a mildly high 25 point implied team total, which shocked me a bit. Denver has reversed their defensive course this year. Whereas in past years they were elite against the pass and easier to run on, they have regressed against the pass this year and are almost impossible to run on. When you combine that with the improvement Alex Smith has shown, it’s easier to make a case for Smith as a QB option. I certainly won’t do it on the full week slates, but he is definitely in play on the shorter slates. That’s where I will get my exposure, as the QB options aren’t all that great on those slates this week. On the Sunday/Monday slate, for example, you have Roethlisberger, Stafford (in a tough matchup), Siemian, and Smith. You can definitely vouch for Smith as the top option of the four. It’s not clear-cut, but it’s not a silly idea.
Running Backs: Just how matchup-proof is Kareem Hunt? We are about to find out. Denver’s rush defense has been absolutely elite this year. They are allowing just 3.0 yards per carry and 72 rushing yards per game, and they have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. We are almost through 50% of the season, so that is no small feat. Hunt obviously has huge upside and is capable of making plays in the passing game, too, but he is clearly behind Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott in the top tier of running backs this week based on matchup alone. He’s strictly a tournament option for me.
Pass Catchers: Here are Denver’s DVOA ranks against the various pass catching positions:
Vs. WR1 = 3rd
Vs. WR2 = 21st
Vs. WR3 = 30th
Vs. TE = 29th
Avoid Tyreek Hill. Play everyone else. Since the other wide receivers are poor here, that means “play Travis Kelce Period.
The Takeaway: The Chiefs do have a high team total in this game, and the Smith-to-Kelce combination is my favorite way to approach this game. Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt have GPP-winning upside, but they draw very tough individual matchups. It will be interesting to see how ownership plays out, especially on the shorter slates. With salary likely being an issue, fading Hill and Hunt might be the optimal play.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) Both games on this slate are similar in that we are unlikely to see offensive outbursts. However, both the Bills and Jets have been playing above expectations offensively.
2) Part of the reason why both teams have done well is because of improved quarterback play. Both Tyrod Taylor and Josh McCown are in play as reasonably-priced options here. Taylor gives you a little more upside with his legs, but I don’t have a strong take between the two. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, but the Jets are at home and the Bills are the more banged-up defensive unit right now. Two of their starting defensive backs were sidelined in Week 8. Give me McCown by a nose.
3) LeSean McCoy is the top overall running back option on this two game slate. His volume is right there with Kareem Hunt, and McCoy has the much better matchup. The Jets are allowing 128 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry this season.
4) The Jets ran for just 38 yards as a team against the Falcons, and the snaps are split fairly evenly between Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. Avoid the group if you can, but both are risk/reward GPP options on the cheap.
5) Good luck plucking some wide receivers from this game! Both teams have some of the worst starting wide receivers in football, but there will at least be some value here. Robby Anderson looks like the safest play of the bunch, and he is coming off a solid 6/104/1 line against the Falcons last Sunday, and he has now scored in back-to-back games. He is emerging as the clear WR #1 for the Jets. As for the Bills, well, it’s nothing but a crapshoot. Deonte Thompson was coming off a huge game in Week 7 but caught just one pass last week. Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones continue to disappoint, while Andre Holmes caught a random touchdown against the Raiders. This is nothing more than a guessing game, and we don’t like that in DFS.
6) Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the logical pivot down from Travis Kelce if you need to save some salary at tight end. His targets have been very consistent, and he is a safe play at the position with a good chance to find the end zone.