NFL Grind Down: Week 13 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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Washington Redskins
Notable injuries and suspensions: Crowder (Questionable – Ankle), Reed (Questionable – Back)
Quarterback: Colt McCoy wasn’t great on Thanksgiving day but nearly pulled off an upset over the Cowboys but ultimately fell short, 31-23. McCoy went 24/38 with 268 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He was also sacked three times and fumbled once, which was recovered. There’s no reason to play McCoy on a full slate but on a Monday Showdown game, he’s not the craziest play. It’s not so much because I think McCoy is a good quarterback, he’s not, but the Eagles have been awful lately defensively and that may be enough for McCoy to provide some value. Over their last four games, they’ve allowed an average passer rating of 106.8 and have now dropped to 18th in pass DVOA. Turnovers have always been an issue with McCoy throughout his career as he owns a career 29:26 touchdown to interception ratio, but it’s nice to see the Redskins let him air it out 38 times and push the offense a bit.
Running Backs: Chris Thompson returned to practice this week, was removed from the injury report and will return for the first time since Week 8. Kapri Bibbs has been filling in for Thompson and did have a rushing touchdown last week, but he hasn’t had more than six touches in a game this season. This news is noteworthy because the Redskins are dogs here and the likely potential negative game script could force the Redskins to use their pass catching backs more. Thompson was a favorite of Alex Smith so it’ll be interesting to see how much McCoy utilizes him. Thompson had reception totals of 6, 6 and 13 in games earlier this season, so he was being utilized as another receiver when the Redskins were in catch-up mode. The negative game script doesn’t bode as well for Adrian Peterson, who has operated as the lead back but isn’t a factor in the passing game and has averaged just 14 carries in his last four games. The Redskins have gone 1-3 during that span and in the one game they won, Peterson had 19 carries while he had just 12, 16 and 9 carries in the three losses. Peterson is going to be a touchdown-dependent option here.
Pass Catchers: McCoy keyed in on the tight end position last week, where Vernon Davis went 2-73-1 and Jordan Reed went 6-75-0. Reed has come alive lately under McCoy as he also went 7-71-1 last week (the touchdown came from McCoy), so perhaps the two are forming a connection here. Reed is officially questionable but all signs point to him playing Josh Doctson led the receivers with a 6-66-0 line off 10 targets, a season-high, and this is a solid matchup against a leaky Eagles defense. I don’t mind Doctson in this spot. If you want to YOLO a bit, the Redskins have been giving more snaps to Trey Quinn aka Trey’Quinn Smith. Quinn had five catches and a touchdown, and has now seen a snap rate of 71% and 73% over the past two weeks. Michael Floyd and Maurice Harris appear to be in a timeshare, allowing Quinn to see more playing time down the stretch. It does sound like Jamison Crowder is set to return here, but it’s hard to trust him in his first game back from injury as I’d expect him to play limited snaps.
The Takeaway: The status of Chris Thompson is worth monitoring as the pass catching back could have a bigger role in this expected negative game script. That makes Adrian Peterson a touchdown-or-bust option. Jordan Reed has looked good lately and is the pass catcher I’m most likely to target here, while Josh Doctson also gets a good matchup and Trey Quinn aka Trey’Quinn Smith is a worthy Showdown dart throw.
Philadelphia Eagles
Notable injuries and suspensions: Adams (Questionable – Hip), Sproles (Questionable – Hamstring)
Quarterback: The Eagles pulled off a 25-22 come-from-behind win over the Giants last week but it’s been a rough two-game stretch for Carson Wentz. After a six-game stretch of throwing multiple touchdowns and scoring at least 22.7 DraftKings points, Wentz has a lowly 1:3 touchdown to interception ratio over his last two games. It doesn’t appear he’s hiding an injury, so I’m still willing to go back to the well with Wentz on a Showdown slate (I think he’s too thin of a play on a full Thursday-Monday slate). He still has all the weapons around him and a surging running back, so I’m not too concerned.
Running Backs: We got news early last Sunday that Josh Adams would lead the committee and be treated as the lead back, similar to how Jay Ajayi was treated last season. Adams proceeded to have a 22-84-1 line on the ground but wasn’t targeted through the air. He remains too cheap for his expected role moving forward. The snaps were distributed as follows: Adams (40), Corey Clement (24), Wendell Smallwood (1). Adams out-carried Clement 22 to 5, and it appears Smallwood has dropped out of the rotation. Darren Sproles did return to practice this week but has been out for the last several games with a hamstring injury, so I doubt they push him and even if he does suit it, I’d be surprised if he got a ton of work. I’d assume he’s just replace Smallwood in the trio. Adams did have three receptions the previous week so I do expect him to have a role in the passing game. It’s worth mentioning that running backs coach Duce Staley said, “It’s still a running back by committee. It’s all about the hot hand.” Given the workload they gave Adams last week, I’m thinking this isn’t entirely true. Adams landed on the injury report with a hip injury from Saturday’s practice, but the team doesn’t sound too concerned. If he has a setback prior to kickoff, that may force Sproles into a larger than expected role. Keep an eye on this.
Pass Catchers: Only six players caught passes last week, with Zach Ertz continuing to lead the team. His 7-91-1 line was a nice rebound from the two-catch dud he had the prior week. Surprisingly, Golden Tate only played on 60% of the snaps, which was actually down from his 71% snap rate from the prior week. He did tie Ertz for the team lead with eight targets, but Jordan Matthews still played on 22% of the snaps. It’s certainly possible the days of Ertz seeing double-digit targets routinely are over with Tate now in the fold, but it seems like Ertz remains atop the pecking order, with Tate and Alshon Jeffrey now next in the order and Nelson Agholor a distant memory. Agholor saw his snap rate drop all the way down to 72% and has just one catch over his last two games.
The Takeaway: I’m not too worried about Carson Wentz and his recent struggles, as he could easily have a bounceback game here. Josh Adams appears to be the clear front runner in this backfield. I still like the idea of pairing Wentz with Zach Ertz, although it appears Golden Tate could be taking away some of Ertz’s work the more Tate gets familiar with this offense.