NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Three
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
| Kansas City Chiefs | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Paul Brown Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 45 | 20.5 | -4 | 45 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.3 | 8 | 20 | 14 | Offense | 28.3 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 7 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 29.7 | 29 | 29 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 18 | 16 | 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 3 | 32 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 27 | 17 | 1 | 245 | Green | 25 | 18 | 3 | 335 | |
| Wilson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 25 | Jones | 16 | 9 | 2 | 164 | |
| Thomas | 8 | 5 | 0 | 36 | Sanu | 9 | 5 | 0 | 83 | |
| Kelce | 21 | 16 | 2 | 244 | Eifert | 20 | 13 | 3 | 153 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
KC Matchup Rating: 4.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.0
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith (FD $6,500, DK $5,600) started off the season with a surprising three-touchdown effort against the Texans, but has since thrown three interceptions and only one touchdown. He has limited upside thanks to his reluctance to throw the ball down the field, and due to his team’s play calling. The Bengals are a fairly neutral matchup overall for opposing passing games, and certainly not one to target with a mediocre passer like Smith.
Running Game: Jamaal Charles (FD $8,700, DK $7,600) faces a Cincinnati run defense that ranks second in Football Outsiders DVOA against the run, but is in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to backs. Why is that? A two-touchdown effort in garbage time from Marcel Reece in Week 1 drags down what is otherwise a fairly spotless record against backs for the Bengals. This is a strong run defense, and Charles is a PPR tournament option only.
Pass Catchers: Travis Kelce (FD $6,400, DK $5,300) and Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,500, DK $5,800) get most of their team’s targets (21 and 27, respectively), and with Kelce’s red zone threat and Maclin’s big play ability, both are viable in tournaments. Kelce is the preferred play thanks to the scarcity at tight end in a Gronk-less slate.
The Takeaway: The Chiefs face an uphill battle this week, but since they’ll likely play from behind for some portion of this game, and will struggle to run the ball effectively, their passing game targets make for nice tournament plays against a defense that has no matchups to shy away from in the defensive backfield.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Has there been a more surprising player through three weeks than Andy Dalton (FD $7,600, DK $5,900)? And is his continued bargain price not even more surprising? The TCU product has nine total touchdowns and only one interception through three games, and now faces a Kansas City defense that has allowed ten touchdown passes since the season began. They will get a key cog in their defensive backfield back this week in Sean Smith, but Dalton has a matchup-proof receiver, a great tight end, a do-it-all receiving back and some solid second and third receiver options, so he can make it work if Smith has a Pro Bowl-caliber day. Dalton is in play on any site where his price hasn’t shot up thanks to his early season heroics.
Running Game: The Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the Bengals split their carries between two backs. In passing situations they prefer to go with Giovani Bernard (FD $6,700, DK $5,000), and he’s a tournament option should Cincy decide to not slam their head against a wall with the ground game against the league’s third-best DVOA defense against the run. Jeremy Hill (FD $6,700, DK $6,500) has too tough of a matchup on the ground for me to consider him this weekend.
Pass Catchers: A.J. Green (FD $8,400, DK $7,600) is matchup proof and off to a hot start this season. Sean Smith is not Richard Sherman, and any snaps Green spends against Smith should not be seen as a hopeless cause for the wideout. Tyler Eifert (FD $5,700, DK $4,600) had a touchdown catch wrongfully ruled out last week, and remains a key part of his team’s passing game. He has six red zone targets this year, and should continue to catch his quarterback’s eye near the end zone. He’s a strong tournament play. Marvin Jones (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) is also a red zone option for the Bengals, and merits consideration in tournaments after his eight-target, five-catch game a week ago. I think I’d prefer to spend up on Green or use Eifert, but Jones is a fine tournament play.
The Takeaway: Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are top plays, Eifert and Bernard are good tournament options, and Jones is a sneakier way to get exposure to this offense. The Bengals should be a nice source of fantasy production this weekend.
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers
| Cleveland Browns | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.3 | 21 | 19 | 25 | Offense | 22.0 | 18 | 2 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.7 | 24 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 16 | 16 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego Chargers | 6 | 31 | 2 | 18 | Cleveland Browns | 15 | 20 | 24 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 17 | 10 | 4 | 249 | Allen | 39 | 29 | 2 | 315 | |
| Hawkins | 16 | 8 | 0 | 85 | Floyd | 13 | 7 | 1 | 147 | |
| Hartline | 15 | 7 | 0 | 116 | Johnson | 17 | 14 | 2 | 173 | |
| Barnidge | 16 | 10 | 1 | 160 | Green | 12 | 10 | 1 | 121 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Robert Turbin (CLE, Ankle, Doubtful), Ladarius Green (SD, Concussion, Questionable), Antonio Gates (SD, Suspension, Out)
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
SD Matchup Rating: 7.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Josh McCown (FD $6,400, DK $5,100) had a pretty good outing in Week 3 against the Raiders, but faces slightly tougher opposition with San Diego on the schedule this weekend. The Chargers rank 13th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the sixth-fewest points in the league to opposing passers. The Browns are heavy underdogs on the road on the west coast, and with other strong quarterback options at only slightly higher prices, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which I roster McCown this week.
Running Game: Isaiah Crowell (FD $6,400, DK $4,100) leads the way as a runner for this Cleveland team, but Duke Johnson (FD $5,400, DK $3,100) finally got his shot in the receiving game last weekend and responded with six catches for over 30 yards. However, this will only serve to split an already less-than-ideal running back situation, and even in a favorable matchup, I am going to avoid Crowell, and recommend Johnson only on PPR sites as a deep tournament option.
Pass Catchers: After two weeks of big plays on limited targets, the Browns did get Travis Benjamin (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) more involved in Week 3. However, his ten intended passes did only result in four catches for 45 yards, and against a tough pass defense, I’m not going to bank on him breaking another big play and reaching value. Gary Barnidge (FD $5,000, DK $3,100) had a good game against an Oakland defense that has no idea how to stop the pass to tight ends, but should be seen as a risky play against any other team. No one else is appealing in a tough matchup with such a spread out workload among pass catchers.
The Takeaway: The Browns are big underdogs and don’t have a ton of talent on offense. Look elsewhere for value plays this week.
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: Philip Rivers (FD $7,400, DK $6,100) has seen his completion percentage and fantasy point production drop each week after starting the season with 400 yards and two scores against the Lions. Last week’s one-touchdown performance against Minnesota doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but he’ll be back at home for Week 4, which hopefully will inspire a better performance for a player in a decent spot to succeed. The Browns are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but also 18th against the pass according to Football Outsiders, meaning they’re right around average when it comes to defending opponent throws. Joe Haden is no longer a player to fear, as he has the lowest coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus) of any Cleveland defender. The Chargers use very short throws and screen plays often enough to where Haden wouldn’t be a huge concern, anyways. Rivers is a strong tournament option that many may ignore thanks to his lackluster performances over the last two weeks.
Running Game: Melvin Gordon (FD $6,800, DK $4,900) is going to have his breakout eventually. The talented Wisconsin product is averaging over four yards per attempt this season and has shown moments of brilliance, but he hasn’t put it all together quite yet. A matchup with the Browns, who have allowed the third-most points to backs so far this season and who rank 27th against the run according to Football Outsiders, should be the recipe for a showcase game for Gordon. Just don’t be surprised if Danny Woodhead (FD $6,100, DK $4,600) finds the end zone multiple times and “vultures” trips to the end zone from Gordon, as the versatile back is still the only player to register a rushing attempt in the red zone for San Diego this season. Both players are viable in tournaments this week.
Pass Catchers: Keenan Allen (FD $7,700, DK $7,000) sees most of his team’s targets and is the best skill position player on the offense. He’s in play against a weak pass defense in a game the Chargers should win fairly easily. Steve Johnson (FD $5,800, DK $4,400) isn’t getting the amount of targets we expected, and with Ladarius Green (FD $5,600, DK $3,200) possibly out with a concussion yet again, it’s hard to recommend anyone else in this passing game. Green would be an option if he suits up, but otherwise, stick with Allen.
The Takeaway: Rivers, Gordon, Allen and Woodhead should all see a spot or two on tournament lineups, as they are the four players most likely to score points as the Chargers work toward hitting their implied total in the high 20s.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
| Green Bay Packers | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8 | 48.5 | 28.25 | 8 | 48.5 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | Offense | 15.0 | 32 | 30 | 2 | |
| Opp. Defense | 31.0 | 31 | 28 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 22.7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 21 | 28 | 28 | Green Bay Packers | 19 | 24 | 10 | 20 | ||
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 28 | 20 | 4 | 257 | Boldin | 19 | 12 | 1 | 112 | |
| Adams | 15 | 9 | 0 | 92 | Smith | 12 | 7 | 1 | 131 | |
| Jones | 15 | 12 | 4 | 219 | Ellington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Rodgers | 11 | 8 | 1 | 76 | Davis | 15 | 8 | 0 | 109 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Davante Adams (GB, Ankle, Questionable), Eddie Lacy (GB, Ankle, Probable), Vernon Davis (SF, Knee, Doubtful), Reggie Bush (SF, Calf, Probable)
GB Matchup Rating: 8.0
SF Matchup Rating: 3.0
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Coming off of a short week and traveling to the west coast are really the only negatives you can say about Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,200, DK $7,900) and the Green Bay offense in this matchup. Rodgers has ten touchdowns and no interceptions through three weeks, and that includes a game against the tough Seattle defense. This week’s game against the Niners does not offer a similar challenge. San Francisco ranks 29th in the league against the pass according to DVOA, and has allowed the 12th most points to quarterbacks. If you pay up at QB, Rodgers makes the most sense.
Running Game: Eddie Lacy (FD $7,800, DK $6,900) appears to be healthy and ready to go, and his limited workload on Monday night should serve him well on a short week. He now faces a defense that ranks 29th in the league against the run and that has allowed the fifth-most points to backs so far this season, and that’s after a strong showing in Week 1 against Minnesota. Assuming we don’t get any bad news between now and Sunday, Lacy is the top “spend up” option at running back, and James Starks (FD $6,400, DK $3,800) is still worthy of consideration, but may take a back seat to a health Lacy once again.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb (FD $8,200, DK $7,400) is Rodgers’ top target and will be targeted heavily against a team that allows the fifth-most points to opposing wideouts so far this season. With Davante Adams likely out, James Jones (FD $6,000, DK $5,300) and Ty Montgomery (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) represent a chalky cash and tournament play and a somewhat contrarian, interesting upside play, respectively. Montgomery did play nearly every snap in Week 3 and should continue to see his role grow if Adams remains sidelined.
The Takeaway: Pick the passing game or the running game and roster Packers in any format this weekend. The defense seems like it should be a good play, but I am uneasy with a short week, road trip defense. It’s a tournament option at best.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (FD $7,500, DK $5,500) is a very sneaky tournament option this weekend. He could obviously throw multiple interceptions again this week, but he has a couple of huge games against the Packers under his belt, mainly due to his running ability, something he should be able to showcase yet again on Sunday. His floor is Nick Foles but his ceiling is Cam Newton, and at a very affordable price (especially on DraftKings), I’ll take a chance with Kap in a lineup or two.
Running Game: The Packers have a bad run defense so far this season (ranked last in DVOA), but can we trust the Niners to stay competitive enough to get Carlos Hyde (FD $7,400, DK $5,100) enough touches to hit value? With Reggie Bush (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) possibly returning, I’m going to avoid this situation, but may reconsider if Bush is ruled out and Hyde is expected to see virtually every meaningful snap at running back.
Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $6,400, DK $4,800) would be a solid volume option at the receiver position should Vernon Davis (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) be ruled out. Boldin has always been a favored target for Kaepernick, and if you’re rolling with Kap, a stack with Boldin makes sense (although a stack-free Kaepernick lineup also is in play thanks to his running ability). Otherwise, I don’t want to target this passing game against a team that ranks sixth against the pass in DVOA.
The Takeaway: Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin are in play for GPPs, but otherwise, avoid the Niners in what Vegas expects to be a blowout.
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
| St. Louis Rams | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.7 | 28 | 29 | 29 | Offense | 42.0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 12 | 9 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 14 | 3 | 6 | St. Louis Rams | 3 | 30 | 6 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Britt | 17 | 11 | 1 | 183 | Fitzgerald | 28 | 23 | 5 | 333 | |
| Austin | 13 | 8 | 1 | 99 | Floyd | 7 | 2 | 0 | 30 | |
| Quick | Brown | 17 | 12 | 1 | 153 | |||||
| Cook | 16 | 11 | 0 | 139 | Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andre Ellington (ARI, Knee, Questionable),
STL Matchup Rating: 1.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback: Nick Foles (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) led a lot of daily fantasy players on with his Week 1 performance against Seattle, as he’s been a massive letdown ever since. Going against a top pass defense (second in DVOA, second in PFF grades), he’s not an option.
Running Game: Tre Mason (FD $6,000, DK $4,000) and Todd Gurley (FD $5,900, DK $4,300) will likely split carries in a nightmare matchup against a team that has yet to allow a back to go for more than 61 yards on the ground. The Cardinals have allowed backs to catch the ball out of the backfield, which would bring Benny Cunningham (FD $5,400, DK $3,400) into play if his playing time were secure at all.
Pass Catchers: Kenny Britt (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) is hurt, and even if he plays, this matchup doesn’t suit him. The Cardinals have historically given up big games to tight ends, but have allowed only 13 catches for 110 yards to the position this year. Don’t overthink this.
The Takeaway: The Rams are huge underdogs against a top defense. This isn’t a spot to be contrarian.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Carson Palmer (FD $8,200, DK $6,800) has been a surprising fantasy star to start the season, but maybe we shouldn’t be all that surprised? With the exception of his Week 9 game against the Rams last year (during which he was injured), Palmer has at least two touchdowns in nine of his last ten starts dating back to 2013. The Rams do have a strong pass rush, and while the Cardinals have looked pretty good at blocking for Palmer this year, I’m not sold that they can hold up to Aaron Donald and company this week. That leaves Palmer as a tournament play, as he may be under fire in this one.
Running Game: If Andre Ellington (FD $7,000, DK $5,400) returns, this backfield is a mess that I will totally avoid. The Rams have the 12th ranked defense against the run according DVOA, and grade out as the best run D according to PFF. Chris Johnson (FD $6,700, DK $4,500) would be an option based on volume alone if Ellington is ruled out, but otherwise, stick to the passing game for this one.
Pass Catchers: You don’t need to be reminded about what Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $6,500) has done this season. He now faces a Rams defense that does a pretty good job of shutting down opposing passing games, but I still expect a decent performance from the veteran wideout. However, he’ll be popular, and his chances of hitting value may not be worth it compared to his ownership levels, so I’ll be limiting my exposure. John Brown (FD $5,800, DK $5,100) will have a breakout game eventually, as he’s regularly involved in the passing game. He is the only receiver other than Fitzgerald to see more than seven targets this season, and he’s a GPP target this week.
The Takeaway: The Cardinals should win this game easily, and while the Rams’ defense is stout, they’re not going to totally shut down this efficient Arizona offense. However, the blowout risk and the matchup leave the Cards as tournament plays.