NFL Grind Down: Week 4
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
| New York Jets | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 9:30 a.m. | London, England | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42 | 21.75 | 1.5 | 42 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 17 | 23 | 18 | Offense | 17.0 | 27 | 6 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.7 | 19 | 15 | 31 | Opp. Defense | 13.7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 18 | 12 | 21 | 21 | New York Jets | 2 | 10 | 9 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 33 | 23 | 3 | 272 | Landry | 35 | 24 | 0 | 249 | |
| Decker | 14 | 10 | 2 | 134 | Jennings | 11 | 4 | 0 | 39 | |
| Smith | 9 | 3 | 0 | 39 | Matthews | 23 | 16 | 3 | 262 | |
| Cumberland | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | Cameron | 19 | 10 | 0 | 151 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eric Decker (NYJ, Knee, Questionable), Chris Ivory (NYJ, Quad, Probable), Chris Owusu (NYJ, Knee, Out)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 5.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 2.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: There are a handful of quarterbacks this season who started off with low salaries, have outproduced those salaries, but who still remain affordable. Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $6,900, DK $5,100) is definitely one of those players. The New York quarterback has scored 14, 17.3 and 17.6 FanDuel points in his first three games of the season, yet remains at a price where 15-17 points would be a nice return on investment. This week they take on a Miami team that ranks in the middle of the pack in the NFL in terms of points allowed to quarterbacks, and that has come against some pretty middling names at the position (Cousins, Bortles and Taylor). Expect 17-20 fantasy points from Fitzpatrick in what should be a somewhat disjointed, ugly win in London, making the Jets QB a secondary option this week.
Running Game: Christopher Ivory (FD $6,900, DK $4,800) continues to deal with a nagging injury, and we know that the Jets won’t hesitate to hold him back with Bilal Powell (FD $5,500, DK $3,700) capable of filling in for him. As a result, it will be hard to trust Ivory without definitive statements that he’ll return to a lead back role. For now, Powell is the preferred play on PPR sites thanks to his involvement in the passing game (he’s run more routes than anyone on the team not named Brandon Marshall), and he’s a secondary option at best.
Pass Catchers: Speaking of Brandon Marshall (FD $7,800, DK $6,800), he is the leading receiver for the Jets, especially with Eric Decker (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) still looking like he’s limited by a knee problem. Marshall has 33 targets through three games, and six of the team’s 15 red zone passes have been thrown his way. If Decker is ruled out, Marshall is once again a top play at receiver against a Miami defense that allowed a huge game to Allen Robinson in Week 2, and gave up solid numbers to a mix of different Buffalo receivers in Week 3. With Decker out last week, Jeremy Kerley (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) and Quincy Enunwa (FD $4,800, DK $3,200) saw the most targets outside of Marshall. With the team looking very thin at tight end, expect lots of three receiver sets, bringing both of these players into view as tournament darts.
The Takeaway: Marshall is the top overall play for New York, while Fitzpatrick, Powell and the secondary receiving options all provide differentiation possibilities in tournaments.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,700, DK $6,200) has been throwing the ball early and often through his first three starts of the season, and has produced decent fantasy point totals in two of those three contests. But the Miami quarterback isn’t looking particularly efficient, and faces a defense that is among the best in the league against the pass. Football Outsiders rank the Jets as the league’s fourth-best defense against the pass according to their DVOA metric, and only the Broncos have allowed fewer points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season than New York. There are countless other options at the QB position this weekend for your consideration.
Running Game: Lamar Miller (FD $6,400, DK $4,700) has been dealing with an injury, limiting his already unstable workload in a pass-heavy offense. He’s not listed on the injury report so far this week, but considering the way his team refuses to use him on a regular basis, combined with the tough defense (top DVOA run defense, 25th in points allowed to backs so far this year), I’m going to avoid this backfield completely.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,200, DK $6,500) is the store-brand version of Antinio Brown, seeing a healthy amount of targets and receptions every week, but without the same explosiveness and potential for huge plays. He’s caught eight passes in each of his first three games, but in two of those contests, his yardage total was under 70. He’s reserved to PPR sites specifically this week in a tough matchup, but it’s hard to imagine him not catching 8-10 passes for 50 or more yards, and if he finds the end zone with one of those catches, he’ll have hit the value we’re looking for. He plays in he slot, a place where top corner Darrelle Revis doesn’t go, and he’ll instead face a lot of Buster Skrine, who is not a player to be scared away by. Revis’ coverage will instead likely be on Rishard Matthews (FD $6,400, DK $4,400), who has been quietly impressive for a couple of weeks, but is not a viable option with such a tough opponent. DeVante Parker (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) increased his role in the offense in Week 3 ahead of a couple of veterans in Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills but the rookie is just a name to keep in mind for later this season, while the experienced receivers he passed on the depth chart should be off your radar unless an injury occurs.
The Takeaway: This is a very tough matchup against a defense projected to be second best in the NFL this season according to Football Outsiders. Jarvis Landry is really the only player worthy of even a minute of consideration, and that’s on PPR sites only.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Lucas Oil Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 48 | 19 | -10 | 48 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.3 | 29 | 24 | 23 | Offense | 18.7 | 23 | 18 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.7 | 22 | 18 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 30.3 | 30 | 26 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 17 | 17 | 25 | 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 26 | 20 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 27 | 11 | 2 | 250 | Hilton | 28 | 15 | 0 | 227 | |
| Hurns | 15 | 11 | 1 | 198 | Johnson | 18 | 7 | 0 | 51 | |
| Lee | 6 | 3 | 0 | 52 | Moncrief | 26 | 17 | 3 | 200 | |
| Lewis | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Fleener | 7 | 5 | 0 | 56 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Julius Thomas (JAC, Hand, Out), Allen Hurns (JAC, Thigh, Probable), Andrew Luck (IND, Shoulder, Questionable), Dwayne Allen (IND, Ankle, Questionable)
JAC Matchup Rating: 4.0
IND Matchup Rating: 7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) doesn’t actually have to do much to hit value this weekend, as the Jacksonville quarterback is priced like a backup thanks to his inconsistency and his team’s constant underdog status. He’s actually posted halfway decent performances in his last two outings, scoring multiple touchdowns and getting close to 300 total yards in Week 2 against Miami. This week he faces a Colts defense that ranks 25th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, and that allowed 367 yards and two scores through the air to Marcus Mariota last weekend. You could do worse with a punt under center than Bortles.
Running Game: The Colts have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing backs so far this year, but Football Outsiders rank them as the tenth-best defense against the run in the NFL. How does that happen? Giving up four rushing touchdowns to opposing runners in three weeks will do the trick. Teams punch in scores on the ground against the Colts, but don’t do much between the 20s with their running backs. We should see more of the same this week, as the Jaguars: 1) Are already fairly pass-happy, 2) Should be behind and looking to pass to keep up 3) Haven’t got much production out of rookie T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,400, DK $4,400) on the ground, and don’t have another healthy, viable option at running back. I’m avoiding this situation altogether.
Pass Catchers: I am not avoiding this situation, however. The Allen and Allen show should continue at receiver for the Jaguars, and that will open up plenty of opportunities for fantasy points against a Colts defense that has one very talented corner, and no other matchups to worry about when targeting receivers against them. Vontae Davis moves around and shadows opponent’s top receivers when they play outside, and very, very rarely follows them into the slot. Presumably, the Jaguars will line up Allen Robinson (FD $6,500, DK $5,500) outside more often than not, and he’s likely to be Davis’ target when he’s shadowing. This will open up room to work for Allen Hurns (FD $5,300, DK $3,900), who will likely play both inside and outside, and avoid Davis either way. Hurns is a great tournament option this week, but I’ll not be taking any chances with Robinson against Davis, and no other pass catchers are worthy of consideration.
The Takeaway: The Jaguars might not seem like an offense to target, but Blake Bortles and Allen Hurns are worth looking at in tournament and qualifier lineups.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Andrew Luck (FD $9,100, DK $7,800) would typically be an easy start against the Jaguars, especially if you can get him at reduced ownership thanks to his poor start to the season. But according to Adam Schefter, Luck is legitimately questionable to play on Sunday. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury and has been limited in practice. This is a similar situation to the one we’ve seen unfold with Drew Brees, and it’s likely the Colts will take a similar level of caution with their franchise quarterback. If he plays, I don’t trust his health enough to pay up for him, even in a good matchup. If he doesn’t play, Matt Hasselbeck (FD $4,800, DK $5,000) will start his first game since 2012, and is a total wild card option in a favorable matchup against a team that allows the tenth-most points to quarterbacks and is tenth-worst in DVOA against the pass. He’s worth a GPP lineup or two if you’re multi-entering, but don’t go crazy.
Running Game: If Luck plays, the Colts will lean on the run to protect him. If Luck doesn’t play, the Colts will lean on the run to hide Hasselbeck’s general lack of production. The Colts are normally a pass-first team, so it won’t be a smooth transition to trying to run behind a subpar offensive line with an aging Frank Gore (FD $7,300, DK $4,700) and a cast of unknown backup runners. The Jaguars are vulnerable to the run as well as the pass, so Gore is worthwhile against a defense that gave up four rushing touchdowns a week ago, but be warned that Josh Robinson (FD $4,900, DK $3,200) has five of the team’s 12 running back rushes inside the opponent’s 20 this season. With overall concerns about how well the Indy offense would run without Luck, I am not interested in their running game outside of some exposure to Gore in tournaments on DraftKings.
Pass Catchers: No matter who is under center, there are two top receivers for the Colts, and they remain in play in either circumstance. T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,600, DK $6,700) has battled through a knee injury to hold the team lead in targets just ahead of Donte Moncrief (FD $6,300, DK $5,000), and both players are viable daily fantasy picks this week. Inside the red zone, Hilton and Moncrief have seven of the team’s 13 targets this year, and two of the other six went to the now-injured Dwayne Allen (FD $5,200, DK $3,100), who is slowly working his way back to the lineup and may not play this week. If the Colts sit Luck out for this week, it relegates these players to secondary tournament options, but they’re still in play. If Luck does go, they’re still just tournament picks, but slightly safer with better passes expected, even if the Stanford product isn’t 100%.
The Takeaway: The quarterback situation for Indy is worth keeping an eye on, as a less-than-healthy Andrew Luck isn’t an ideal fantasy target at such a high salary, and Matt Hasselbeck is a total unknown. The running game doesn’t offer a lot of potential, with Frank Gore providing the only chance for any fantasy success, and the receivers are tournament plays, but are risky considering the issues at quarterback.
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
| New York Giants | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Ralph Wilson Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 45.5 | 20.25 | -5 | 45.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.0 | 9 | 16 | 21 | Offense | 33.3 | 3 | 22 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.7 | 13 | 31 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 16 | 32 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 29 | 6 | 30 | 28 | New York Giants | 20 | 27 | 18 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham Jr. | 29 | 19 | 2 | 269 | Watkins | 13 | 7 | 1 | 99 | |
| Cruz | Harvin | 18 | 16 | 1 | 224 | |||||
| Randle | 14 | 11 | 1 | 144 | Woods | 10 | 9 | 1 | 125 | |
| Donnell | 16 | 10 | 1 | 81 | Clay | 17 | 12 | 2 | 144 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Victor Cruz (NYG, Calf, Out), LeSean McCoy (BUF, Hamstring, Out), Sammy Watkins (BUF, Calf, Out)
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 8.5
New York Giants
Quarterback: Eli Manning (FD $7,800, DK $7,000) is priced like a top-10 quarterback, but in a matchup with Buffalo, I’m not sure we can consider him a top-10 option. The Bills are ranked eighth in DVOA against the pass and 12th in coverage per PFF, but have high fantasy points allowed thanks to matchups with the Colts and Patriots during the first two weeks, and two garbage time scores from Ryan Tannehill in Week 3. At some point, the production in spite of the defensive talent will stop, and the Bills will normalize from a fantasy points allowed standpoint and have “defense versus position” numbers that better reflect how good they are against opposing passing games. Look elsewhere for your expensive quarterbacks, as several of the expensive options have nice matchups this week.
Running Game: The Giants use three running backs in a rotation that renders all three difficult to use even in good matchups. A road game against a defense that has allowed very little production on the ground this season isn’t the right spot to try to pick a back to target. Shane Vereen (FD $5,800, DK $4,300) theoretically is the back to play thanks to his involvement in the passing game, and the Bills did allow Dion Lewis to catch six passes for 98 yards in Week 2. But Vereen’s playing time is too sporadic to trust.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,100, DK $9,100) is capable of scoring a ton of fantasy points in any matchup, but this week’s game against Stephon Gilmore and the Bills isn’t an ideal spot. Rueben Randle (FD $5,700, DK $4,500) and Larry Donnell (FD $5,200, DK $2,900) are the other two receivers likely to see targets, but neither have shown any sort of efficiency this year and can be ignored.
The Takeaway: The Giants are big underdogs on the road against their upstate rivals, and don’t offer a lot of daily fantasy potential.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,600, DK $5,800) has seen his price stay below $6,000 on DraftKings despite repeated performances that should merit a trip up the salary ladder. The Virginia Tech product has completed nearly 75% of his passes this season and scored ten total touchdowns. This week he faces a defense that has allowed 310 or more passing yards in each of their first three games, and that gave up some big rushing numbers to mobile quarterbacks a year ago. Taylor is in play in any format on both sites, as he’ll likely be asked to do just a bit more with the injuries at receiver and running back leaving his offense a bit thin.
Running Game: With LeSean McCoy almost certainly out for this week’s game, Karlos Williams (FD $6,300, DK $3,400) will be one of the most popular picks in daily fantasy football, and his popularity is more than justified. He’s scored in every game this season, and picked up 110 yards on only 12 carries in a blowout win over Miami last week. The Giants have allowed the eighth-most points to opposing backs so far this year, and while their run defense does grade out well at PFF and Football Outsiders, that’s not enough to turn me away from a back who will see 20-25 touches for a good offense as a home favorite. He might be a smart tournament fade to break from the crowd and hope for a mediocre performance, but in cash games, it would be foolish to pass on this value.
Pass Catchers: Percy Harvin (FD $5,700, DK $4,600) will step into the role of top receiver with Sammy Watkins likely out. Harvin’s role with the offense means a couple of handoffs are likely, and his targets are more guaranteed than any other healthy player for Buffalo. Robert Woods (FD $5,400, DK $3,100) is likely to see a boost in usage to help fill the void with Watkins out, and Charles Clay (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) will be featured in the passing game as well. All three make for solid plays this weekend, but Harvin is the top pick thanks to his big play ability.
The Takeaway: The Bills are in a great spot this weekend with cheap prices and big opportunities against a team they should handle easily. Taylor, Williams and Harvin are all viable in cash games, with Taylor and/or Williams standing out as the preferred plays.