NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 12, Buccaneers at Colts

Week 12 provides an interesting slate of games, with no high-scoring games anticipated, and plenty of closely contested matchups with tough calls to make at various positions. A Sunday afternoon showdown between the Buccaneers and Colts provides one of the best opportunities for fantasy points, as up-tempo offenses and mediocre defenses will try to contain star wideouts in what could be the highest scoring game of the weekend. So who are the top picks for this game? Our experts break it down from every angle.

JMToWin’s Matchup Focus

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That’s right! We are looking at the Bucs and Colts as our “game of the week.”

We are looking at Jameis Winston and Matt Hasselbeck – because it’s just that type of week.

On a week such as this one – with so many difficult things to pick through, and with so little available in the way of “truly obvious plays” – finding an edge in the games where others are unlikely to look deeply can make a big difference. Others are unlikely to “look deeply” into this game, which makes it a great spot for us!

We’ll start with the Bucs’ passing game, and – surprise! – I’m going to start by exercising a little bit of caution. While Jameis Winston threw five touchdown passes in his last game, he had only thrown ten touchdown passes in the previous nine games combined. What’s more, Jameis launched this attack on the scoreboard while throwing only 29 passes – the fifth time this season that he has thrown 29 or fewer passes. I’ve said all year that I feel the Bucs would prefer to “hide” Jameis as he develops, and that continues to be the case. Sometimes, the game that is “most worth talking about” is “most worth talking about” because of a guy others will be on, but that you should consider fading. I don’t dislike Jameis this week, but there are other guys priced around the same place as him whom I like a whole lot more, and this makes me perfectly happy to stay away from him this week.

When a quarterback throws only 29 passes, you need to be able to predict where those passes will go in order to be able to effectively roster players. With Vincent Jackson back and Austin Seferian-Jenkins expected back this week, we will not be able to say for certain where these passes will go. I imagine Vontae Davis will play sides for the Colts (and he has not been the elite corner this year that he was last year anyway), so I’m not going to pull myself off Mike Evans over concerns that he’ll be blanketed in tight coverage, but I will say that I don’t think Evans has bankable enough target volume to roster him at his price, at what is likely to be decent-sized ownership. If you want to target a pass catcher, the smarter place to go – from a strategy standpoint – is Vincent Jackson!). Jackson is not rosterable in cash games, but his high upside and his low ownership make him a strong tournament target. If we played this slate a thousand times and you rostered V-Jax all thousand times, he would lose you money more times than he would make you money… but the times he made you money, he would make you a lot – making him a +EV play overall.

doug martin

Doug Martin is going to be the focal point for the Bucs… and for fantasy owners. In his last seven games, he has seen at least 20 touches six times, which debunks the narrative that his workload is unpredictable and/or dependent on game flow. Indianapolis has a solid run defense, but they are nothing to be scared of. I don’t have anything really enlightening to tell you about Doug Martin: he’ll be highly-owned, he’s in a good-but-not-great-matchup, he makes for a solid cash game play, and although he’ll be popular, I still like him in tourneys as well.

While you could have predicted that I would like Doug Martin, you may have had a harder time predicting that I would like T.Y. Hilton. Hilton saw only four targets last week, but in Matt Hasselbeck’s previous two starts, Hilton saw a combined 22 targets. Squaring off against a Bucs secondary that has a tendency to allow short passes to go for big gains, Hilton is a very, very intriguing tournament play this week. If he sees eight or more targets, I expect him to easily pay off his dropping salary.

There is nowhere else I want to look in the Colts’ pass game, as Matt Hasselbeck has a lower ceiling than some of the other cheap options available at quarterback, and the targets to other receivers will be too inconsistent for me to feel good about going there, but there is one other place on the Colts worth glancing, and that is Ahmad Bradshaw.

frank gore

While the Colts are committed these days to riding Frank Gore pretty heavily, you should pay attention to reports this week to get a feel for Gore’s health. I cannot jump on board with Gore against a really solid run D if he’ll be getting all the work, but if reports indicate that he may not be fully healthy, and that Bradshaw will see a heavier workload, I like Bradshaw quite a bit as a guy who will be heavily utilized out of the backfield, and who can easily pay off his low salary.

This might not be a pretty game – heck, it might not be a pretty weekend – but that’s not what matters. What matters is uncovering the right plays. What matters is making money.

Guys I like in cash games and tournaments: Doug Martin

Guys I like in tournaments only: Vincent Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, Ahmad Bradshaw (contingent on Gore’s health)


LeoTPP’s Grind Down

The Odds

This game currently features an over/under total of 46.5 points, and a narrow three-point spread favoring the Colts. This means Vegas is implying a 24-21 type of final score in what should be a competitive game between what seem to be evenly matched opponents. This weekend features similar point totals and spreads for most of the game, so Vegas lines don’t give us a huge edge on a week like this. Avoiding low-total games like Buffalo/Kansas City and St. Louis/Cincinnati are the only areas where we can gain an edge by understanding Vegas lines, and we’ll have to dig into matchups and tendencies to find the right plays on this slate.

Matchups by the Numbers

According to Football Outsiders’ weighted defense rankings, which consider recent results more heavily than ones from earlier this season, these two defenses are ranked right in the middle of the pack at 14th (Tampa Bay) and 15th (Indianapolis). So why would this be the matchup of the week if two mediocre defenses are squaring off with a middling Vegas total? These teams play at high tempos and have pretty clear targets in the running and passing games, and on a week without a ton of obvious plays, we’ll need to dig into the numbers and find players with a chance to exceed expectations.

As I mentioned, both of these teams play quickly, ranking in the top-ten in pace so far this season. That’s good news for fantasy, as it should produce more plays and more opportunities for fantasy points for the players we roster in this game. It is also likely a contributing factor in the decent Vegas total for a game featuring middling offenses and defenses.

So how do these teams match up? For the passing games, this should be a slightly above-average opportunity for both teams. The Buccaneers rank 20th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass, and have allowed the 13th-most points to the QB position this season. The team has shuffled the players in their defensive backfield all season, and while they’ve settled on a fairly anonymous crew of defensive backs moving forward who seem to be playing fairly well, this is still a favorable matchup for the right kinds of receivers. None of the names who have succeeded against the Buccaneers this season are all that surprising, as Jones, Beckham, Hopkins and Robinson are among those to have great fantasy games against Tampa Bay. And according to Football Outsiders, the Bucs are average or worse at defending all wideouts and tight ends, with their main successes defending the pass come when they cover running backs out of the backfield. Good receivers play well against the Buccaneers, and there are a couple of those available for selection in this contest.

The Colts have allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season, including seven multi-touchdown games out of 10. Vontae Davis was once known as an elite corner, but he’s been dealing with injuries and hasn’t been asked to shadow top receivers often this season, but he’s still the main player to worry about when targeting the pass defense of the Colts. Greg Toler and the other defensive backs all struggle in coverage, so picking on the players likely to avoid Davis is still a smart move, even if Davis isn’t truly elite this season. The numbers back this up, as the Colts rank ninth and eighth when defending WR1 and WR2s this year, per Football Outsiders, but 30th against “other” wide receivers. They have allowed fairly big games to star wideouts, but the final numbers aren’t any higher than you’d expect from big names like DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. Overall, it’s fair to say that you can expect wide receivers to perform up to expectation against the Colts, but with limited upside. In that way, these two defenses are quite similar, and we can look to the star wideouts for both teams as having favorable matchups to do what star receivers often do.

The running games for either team will have a tougher time in this game. The Buccaneers rank fifth in DVOA against the run, and are allowing only 3.7 yards per attempt this season. Backs have rushed for touchdowns only four times this season against the Bucs, with the most recent RB rushing score coming in Week 3. And no back has caught passes for more than 43 yards against Tampa Bay, meaning this isn’t a great matchup for running backs at all. On the other side of the ball, the Colts rank 11th in DVOA against the run, but have allowed 12 total touchdowns to the position on the season, and, therefore, rank more favorably from a fantasy points allowed standpoint. But touchdowns are difficult to predict, and the Colts have a pretty solid run defense apart from the scores they’ve allowed, so there’s reason to tread with caution when picking players against them.

Players to Target

jameis winston

As someone who has covered the Buccaneers in the past, and who still holds a slight rooting interest for the team I grew up supporting, I watch Tampa Bay games more often than any other team. So I’ve seen Jameis Winston throw plenty of passes this year, and he’s confirmed to me what I’ve suspected of him since the pre-draft process: he’s inconsistent, but incredibly talented and confident. He sees the field in a way a lot of quarterbacks can’t, but he also visualizes throws his arm can’t deliver. He’s a lot like Andrew Luck in that way, and even Peyton Manning (especially recently), as these quarterbacks often think faster than they can throw, and get into trouble as a result. With that said, Winston is capable of the spectacular, and is a capable and willing runner as well, which generates fantasy points in bunches when he’s given the opportunities. His game last week will draw attention his way, but he’s still likely to be unpopular with so many good, cheap options at QB this week. I’m just not sure there’s a good chance of a repeat performance, and he’s more likely to return to his 15-18 FanDuel point ways. This is acceptable for cash games, but there are players with similar floors and higher ceilings this weekend.

As for the rest of the Bucs, Doug Martin will be popular, and for good reason. He’s breaking tackles left and right and getting a healthy volume of carries despite splitting snaps with Charles Sims. He’s the more talented Tampa Bay back, and he’s worthy of a spot in your lineups despite a less than ideal matchup. However, he’s going to be popular, and fading him in tournaments is a wise decision, even if you think he does well this weekend. He was owned on about a quarter of the teams in Thursday FanDuel contests, which makes him less appealing for tournaments, but still viable in that format. If Charcandrick West is ruled out, Spencer Ware will see his ownership soar, and that may shrink Martin’s ownership on the weekend slate. Either way, Martin is a secondary cash game option, and a popular but decent cash game play. Both Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are viable, as they’ll split time against Vontae Davis, and should be the leading target receivers for the Bucs. The problem, as JMToWin notes, is that the Bucs would prefer to keep the ball on the ground, so splitting 25-30 passes isn’t the same as splitting the 40-50 attempts some quarterbacks dish out on other teams. That leaves both players in “GPP play” territory, and with Jackson cheaper and still flying under the radar, he makes for a very good contrarian option.

For the Colts, veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has a very limited ceiling, and doesn’t stand out as a worthwhile option in any format. Winston offers rushing upside and a higher ceiling, so if you’re targeting a passer in this game, stay on the Tampa Bay side. As for the running game, Frank Gore is going to struggle to get things going if he plays, and if he doesn’t, Ahmad Bradshaw won’t have much more luck. And considering how well the Bucs have done against backs in the passing game this season, Bradshaw’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is neutralized a bit. If Gore is ruled out, Bradshaw is worth a spot in your lineup in PPR formats, but otherwise, I’ll be sticking to the receiving corps for the Colts.

T.Y. Hilton was owned in just over 2% of lineups in Thursday FanDuel contests, and he has more than a 2% chance of having a big game against the Bucs. There are no athletes at defensive back who can match up with the speedy Hilton, who does have an old, conservative quarterback throwing him the ball, but that only serves to keep down the ownership level of a dynamic receiver. He’s too unreliable for use in head-to-head or 50/50 lineups, but his upside is among the highest on this slate despite his lackluster performances so far this season. And while JMToWin isn’t optimistic about Coby Fleener or Donte Moncrief, I think both are viable in tournaments, as the Bucs have struggled against players at those positions, and they’re two of the “big three” in terms of targets for Hasselbeck this season. The trio of Hilton, Fleener and Moncrief have seen far more targets than anyone else on the offense with the veteran under center, and since the Bucs rank 30th in DVOA against WR2s (like Moncrief) and have allowed Jacob Tamme, Brent Celek and Jordan Reed to have respectable games at tight end in recent weeks, it’s easy to see any of these three players picking up 100 yards and a touchdown through the air.

What Our Experts Are Saying

DraftKings Expert Consensus Rankings

mike evans

Our Expert Consensus Rankings are offered every week, and provide top plays at every position from several top DFS players like Notorious, JMToWin, STLCardinals84 and many others. This week, in the DraftKings rankings, we find that Mike Evans has earned the eighth spot among wideouts thanks in large part to a ranking of fourth from headChopper. Chop believes that, from a point-per-dollar perspective, the Tampa Bay wideout is behind only DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown this weekend.

The expert rankings are kind to Doug Martin, as the crew have combined to rank him fifth among backs on DK this weekend. Only Javorious Allen, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Rawls and Mark Ingram earned a better aggregate score than Martin, who comes in at $5,800 on DK and is ranked as high as second by some of our experts.

FanDuel Projections

According to this week’s FanDuel projections, Doug Martin is a top-ten play among running backs when sorting by point per dollar. Despite a mid-range price tag, Martin’s 15 projected FanDuel points are a nice return on investment, reinforcing the idea that he’s a decent cash game target.

However, the news isn’t as encouraging at QB, where both Jameis Winston and Matt Hasselbeck are ranking in the bottom ten in points per dollar. Despite cheap price tags, The passers are not expected to do much more than provide two points per thousand dollars of salary, which is a significant downgrade from top options like Josh McCown, Carson Palmer and Derek Carr.

And considering their bargain price, the Tampa Bay defense earns a top-ten ranking in points per dollar, as a $4,300 salary on FanDuel would be easily paid off by a respectable performance against an offense dealing with injuries and a lack of depth. Lovie Smith’s team has been playing better defense as of late, and should be able to generate a turnover or two and generate a nice return on investment.

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.