NFL Millionaire Maker Ownership Review: Week 11
Welcome to the Week 11 ownership breakdown of DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker. I analyzed the data of all DFSers who submitted 250+ lineups into the big GPP (pros) and compared them against the field, with the analysis focusing on players that were “make-or-break” options.
With over $5,000 at stake, what key players did the pros hone in on and which ones did they fade? The ownership percentages are displayed as an average between all the top players as well as the peak ownership from a single pro’s lineups.
Quarterback
1. Derek Carr $6300, 7.56 points (29.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 15.0 percent, Peak ownership: 31.5 percent
Carr was the chalkiest quarterback play of the week by almost double the next highest ownership (Matthew Stafford: 16.0%) due to his latest production, prime matchup against the Lions, and steady floor with high upside. He was even higher owned in cash games and considered a lock by most pros, online articles, and site projections. The reason to pivot off of Carr was to have a more contrarian lineup, especially when there was a higher than average number of even more amazing value plays on the slate in Charcandrick West, Darren McFadden, Danny Amendola, and Stevie Johnson. The Raiders were traveling from the west coast to the east coast and were only projected to score around their season average, however, nobody expected them to have the game they did (season low passing yards, rushing yards, and first downs).
2. Russell Wilson $5900, 25.40 points (2.3% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 5.6 percent, Peak ownership: 30.0 percent
Wilson had been a steady option this year with a floor of 13.4 points and a ceiling of 23.04 without too much variation from his average of 16.8 points. He hadn’t had the eye popping games we had seen in 2014 where he could run for over 100 yards, one TD while throwing for 200 yards and two TDs. In fact, he hadn’t had a rushing TD all season and had only thrown for 2+ TDs once. Yet, he was still meeting value and going up against a 49ers defense that had given up the 25th most fantasy points to quarterbacks while lacking in the run game as well. With Marshawn Lynch inactive and a Vegas projected total 4.4 points above the Seahawks season average, Wilson was a good contrarian play to have a breakout game.
Running Back
1. DeMarco Murray $6000, 12.1 points (11.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 27.4 percent, Peak ownership: 50.6 percent
Ryan Mathews had been averaging 8.4 carries over the last five games which was limiting DeMarco Murray’s workload. With Mathews declared inactive early in the week, Murray would see a higher than average workload with Darren Sproles picking up a small number of snaps as well. While the Buccaneers have a formidable run defense, the Eagles were projected to score 1.7 points over their season average of 23.6, and were favored at home by 5.5 points. Murray had been increasing his role in the passing game and with the projected game script and increased workload, he was in play to see over 25 carries. However, the Buccaneers went up big and the Eagles abandoned the run-game by the second half.
2. Darren McFadden $5000, 20.9 points (12.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 21.2 percent, Peak ownership: 71.2 percent
After four weeks of being the lead back and receiving an average of 23.25 carries, the only thing holding McFadden back had been his offense and lack of red zone presence. Given the number of carries and his cheap salary, McFadden had been virtually match-up proof. His questionable groin status may have knocked down his ownership numbers, but the news leading up to the game had been positive, even suggesting he would be used as much as possible. Given the positive news and projected +5.4 points above the Cowboys season average with Romo in, the pros piled in on him. He was still left without a TD, but carried it a season-tying 29 times and three receptions for a 4x ratio.
Wide Receiver
1. Larry Fitzgerald $7200, 17.0 points (11.7% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 22.1 percent, Peak ownership: 50.0 percent
Everyone was aware of the production Fitzgerald had put up this season and the height of his ceiling with two multiple TD games. However, the Cardinals had a tough matchup against the Bengals who were in the bottom third of points allowed to wide receivers and the third fewest given up to quarterbacks. The Cardinals were also projected to score 7.1 points less than their season average with key injuries to John Brown and Michael Floyd. Even with the reduced scoring, having Floyd inactive and John Brown limited by his hamstring projected Fitzgerald to see a heavy workload. With a high floor as well as a very high ceiling in line for a heavier than normal workload, Fitzgerald’s ownership by the pros was almost double that of the field.
2. Amari Cooper $6800, 1.4 points (25.4% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 15.7 percent, Peak ownership: 54.5 percent
With second year quarterback Derek Carr playing lights out this season, rookie Cooper had been slotted into the WR1 role and had been productive with a ceiling capable of contributing to a GPP win. However, he also had been shut down by top corners against the Broncos and Jets and the Lions’ Darius Slay had been graded by PFF as one of the top cornerbacks (one position underneath Revis). With the Lions still giving up the 22nd most fantasy points to wide receivers (DVOA: 3% against WR1, 25% against WR2), many pros were still on the Raiders to put up a lot of points on the Lions in lieu to a shootout, albeit through Michael Crabtree.
Tight End
1. Antonio Gates $4800, 1.6 points (6.9% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 11.1 percent, Peak ownership: 44.3 percent
With Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd out with injuries, Gates would be in line with Stevie Johnson to see an inflated number of targets. As he had already averaged 10.75 targets over the four games he had played this season, you might think he was a slam dunk. However, the Chiefs had been giving up the second fewest number of fantasy points to tight ends and Gates had been battling knee and hip injuries over the course of the week, limiting his practice time. Given these factors as well as a banged up offensive line, Gates was not a lock for 100% exposure, but still a great GPP play given the red zone looks and high ceiling he had already demonstrated throughout his short season.
2. Jacob Tamme $3600, 2.6 points (6.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 1.9 percent, Peak ownership: 10.9 percent
Jacob Tamme had received 22 targets over the last two games for a combined 164 yards and one TD. The Colts gave up the 28th most points to tight ends and the Falcons were projected to score the third most points on the slate. While this all looked good on paper, Tamme had just been receiving the targets left by Leonard Hankerson who had been sitting out the last two games with a hamstring injury. With Hankerson in, Tamme had received more than 6 targets just once during this season. With Hankerson cleared Sunday morning, Tamme’s value plummeted.
Defense & Special Teams
1. Raiders $2600, 5.0 points (1.2% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 0.3 percent, Peak ownership: 1.4 percent
The Raiders had only been averaging 5.6 DK points with a ceiling of 11.0 points. They were facing a Lions offense at home who Vegas had projected to score 6.9 more points than their season average (second highest difference this week). Clearly Vegas believed the Lions would continue to mesh with the coaching changes and fair well within the dome. With Aldon Smith out, the Raiders didn’t have the ceiling required to make a deep cash.
2. Texans $2500, 8.0 points (4.8% owned)
Pros’ average ownership: 8.1 percent, Peak ownership: 36.0 percent
The Texans had scored 35 DK points in their last two games, combining for two interceptions, three fumble recoveries, 11 sacks, while only allowing a total of 12 points. The Texans hadn’t been the formidable defense earlier in the season, but clearly they had been on a roll and were playing at home versus a Jets team that were projected to score 2.6 points less than their season average. With a few key players banged up (Brandon Marshall, Antonio Cromartie), the Texans were a nice punt play in GPPs.