NFL Primetime Preview: Week 11
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
| Cincinnati Bengals | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 48.5 | 21.75 | -5 | 48.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 10 | 10 | 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 14 | 9 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 80 | 55 | 4 | 769 | Fitzgerald | 85 | 65 | 7 | 836 | |
| Sanu | 32 | 22 | 1 | 339 | Floyd | 46 | 27 | 5 | 432 | |
| Jones | 58 | 35 | 3 | 458 | Brown | 54 | 37 | 3 | 575 | |
| Eifert | 61 | 40 | 9 | 460 | Fells | 16 | 12 | 2 | 167 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Floyd, John Brown (ARI, Questionable)
CIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: If you looked at the Bengals schedule during this middle portion of the season, you would have never picked the Texans as the team they’d stumble against. Instead, you’d probably point to the Cardinals, who have one of the league’s best defenses, as the most likely source of a loss, and a poor game from Andy Dalton (FD $7,900, DK $6,600). So how will the Bengals respond to their letdown last week? Dalton is starting to show signs of regression, as two of his last three starts have been pretty disappointing in otherwise favorable matchups. The Cardinals rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, and have talented corners and safeties ready to track down errant throws from the TCU product. This isn’t the week for Dalton to get back on track with a big performance, and with several solid options at the position this weekend, he should be avoided.
Running Game: The Cardinals are just as good against the run as they are against the pass, and they haven’t allowed a rusher to gain more than 42 yards on the ground since Week 6. Todd Gurley is the only back to go got a huge game against this defense, and Jeremy Hill (FD $6,500, DK $5,000) and Giovani Bernard (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) are not on that level of talent. Backs have been able to snag a few passes out of the backfield against the Cardinals, including a ten-catch day for Theo Riddick earlier this year, so Bernard holds some appeal as a check-down option in the offense, and he’ll also see a boost in value as the Bengals will likely trail for most of this contest. Bernard is the top option on this offense, but he’s still not very appealing compared to other backs in other matchups this week.
Pass Catchers: The Cardinals shut down tight ends at an elite level, ranking first in DVOA against the position. This rules out Tyler Eifert (FD $6,200, DK $5,900). A.J. Green (FD $8,200, DK $7,700) is never out of consideration, but Patrick Peterson is playing well this year, and should be able to keep up with Green on most passing downs. Marvin Jones (FD $5,400, DK $4,300) will get a more favorable matchup with Jerraud Powers, and is therefore a much better dollar per point option if you think the Bengals get things done through the air in this tough matchup.
The Takeaway: The Bengals are in a tough spot, coming off of their first loss on a short week and facing one of the league’s best defenses. Gio Bernard and Marvin Jones are the top plays, but neither should be used in cash games.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: The Bengals slipped up on offense in recent weeks, but they’re still a formidable foe on defense, ranking eighth in Football Outsiders weighted defensive metric, which favors recent results more heavily. They rank ninth against the pass, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, which is reason for many to worry about the upside of Carson Palmer (FD $8,200, DK $6,700). But with a three-touchdown performance against the Seahawks under his belt, should we really be worried about Palmer in tough matchups? He has great weapons in the passing game and has been playing at an elite level all season, throwing touchdowns at an elite rate and showing excellent efficiency. He leads the league in touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QBR. He’s an option for any format on any weekend, Week 11 against the Bengals included.
Running Game: It’s not always going to be pretty, but the Cardinals are going to continue to feed Chris Johnson (FD $6,800, DK $4,700) the ball and establish the run to keep defenses honest. Johnson has 55 carries in his last two games, and while he’s averaged close to three yards per carry on those attempts, it proves that Bruce Arians and company are going to give him every opportunity to break free on the ground. The Bengals rank tenth in DVOA against the run, and going back a couple of weeks past some cupcake matchups, allowed over 150 total yards to the Pittsburgh backs in Week 8, 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 6, and a huge game for Thomas Rawls in Week 5, and Jamaal Charles in Week 4. There are no guarantees against a talented defense like the one in Cincy, but Johnson has hope for a big game based on this handful of games in recent weeks. He’s a secondary tournament option.
Pass Catchers: The top two wideout performances against the Bengals this year have come from Steve Smith and Jeremy Maclin, which opens the door for a big game from one or both of the outside receivers for the Cardinals. Michael Floyd (FD $6,400, DK $3,800) (if healthy) and John Brown (FD $5,700, DK $5,200) will both likely see a healthy amount of snaps against Dre Kirkpatrick, the below-replacement-level corner opposite Adam Jones, who has been among the best in the league this year according to PFF. If Floyd is out, Brown becomes a much more appealing option, as he’ll see a higher concentration of Palmer’s throws and should play plenty of snaps in favorable matchups. Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $7,200) will spend most of his time locked up against Leon Hall in the slot, and while Hall has played well this year, Fitzgerald will move around and get his chances, and is worthwhile in tournaments thanks to his touchdown upside.
The Takeaway: Palmer, Johnson and Brown are the three top options for the Cardinals, who look likely to perform well, even with less-than-ideal matchups against a decent Bengal defense. Larry Fitzgerald is in play, as well.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
| Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 48 | 20.5 | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.7 | 7 | 27 | 2 | Offense | 33.7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.8 | 4 | 23 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 15 | 16 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 21 | 5 | 29 | 8 | Buffalo Bills | 16 | 15 | 26 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 33 | 22 | 3 | 329 | LaFell | 30 | 13 | 0 | 240 | |
| Woods | 44 | 29 | 2 | 314 | Amendola | 48 | 40 | 2 | 414 | |
| Hogan | 29 | 20 | 2 | 235 | Dobson | 19 | 12 | 0 | 124 | |
| Clay | 58 | 40 | 2 | 408 | Gronkowski | 75 | 49 | 8 | 806 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Julian Edelman (NE, Out)
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.5
NE Matchup Rating: 7.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: The Patriots have a good pass defense, but they play at a high tempo and get out to huge leads, so opposing passers have plenty of chances to pad their stats as they chase the New England lead. We saw that from Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,200, DK $5,200) in Week 2, when the Buffalo signal caller threw for three touchdowns and rushed for another, and despite three interceptions, had a solid all-around game for fantasy purposes. Since then, four quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against New England, and the exceptions (Tannehill, Cousins, Weeden) aren’t that surprising. Taylor’s production has dipped in his two games since returning to the lineup, as he’s not running as well nor throwing with as much volume or production, but an easy win against the Dolphins and a tough test against the Jets aren’t good indicators of future performance for a quarterback. Taylor is a top option in any format thanks to his dual-threat floor and his multi-touchdown upside.
Running Game: The Bills stuck with the running game against New England last time out, giving their backs 21 carries in a back-and-forth shootout. LeSean McCoy (FD $7,500, DK $5,500) ran well, but Karlos Williams (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) stole away the touchdown. This is a fairly common occurrence in the Buffalo offense, as McCoy has run for nice yardage totals over the past six weeks, but has split the touchdowns with Williams. The Patriots have a middle of the road run defense according to the advanced metrics, and while most players will be off of the Buffalo run game, it’s likely that one or both of these backs will score, and McCoy could have a nice all-around stat line as a runner and receiver in what should be a high-scoring game.
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins (FD $6,600, DK $4,800) and Robert Woods (FD $5,100, DK $3,400) lead the way for the Buffalo receiving corps, with Charles Clay (FD $5,200, DK $4,000) at tight end, and these three represent essentially all of the talent at Tyrod’s disposal. Opposing team’s top wideouts have done well against New England this year, as the Patriots rank 23rd in DVOA against WR1 according to Football Outsiders. They also have allowed the third-most points to opposing wideouts, meaning Watkins is very appealing in what could be a back-and-forth game with plenty of passing. Woods is cheaper, but has less upside, and is better suited for PPR sites. Clay doesn’t get as favorable of a matchup, as the Patriots have been strong against tight ends this year, and there are better tight end options in his price range.
The Takeaway: The Bills held their own against the Patriots earlier this year, and should do so again, even with this game taking place in Foxboro. Taylor, McCoy and Watkins are the top overall plays, with Taylor and Watkins viable in cash games as well as tournaments.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady (FD $9,200, DK $8,500) threw the ball 59 times for 466 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills in these two teams’ previous meeting, and he’s continued scoring multiple touchdowns every week since. He’s the best fantasy football asset this season, and is always in play in any format, with his price being the main reason to avoid him on any given week. The Bills have allowed two or more touchdown passes in seven of nine games, and Brady will make that eight of ten this weekend. His floor is higher than any other passer, but he does need a big game to reach value, and fading him in tournaments is a worthwhile strategy if you can identify the cheaper passers who will score 25 or more points and provide better value than Brady.
Running Game: With Dion Lewis out, James White (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) is going to take over the passing down work for the Patriots, while LeGarrette Blount (FD $7,300, DK $5,000) will retain his role as a closer and “running downs” back. In a matchup with the Bills, who rank 29th in DVOA against the run, Blount is the most appealing back. Chris Ivory ran for 99 yards on 18 carries against this defense just last week, and while Blount is not as good as Ivory, he can succeed in the same ways and benefit from a defense that must respect the Patriots’ elite passing attack. Teams don’t run all that often against Buffalo, as they’ve faced the fifth-fewest RB rushing attempts this year, but when they do, they gain 4.3 yards per carry. White is in play on PPR sites, as the Bills have allowed some big plays through the air to opposing backs, but he’s tough to roster on sites that don’t give a full point for a catch, as that will be his primary method of picking up fantasy points.
Pass Catchers: People will flock to Danny Amendola (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) with Julian Edelman out, but Brandon LaFell (FD $6,900, DK $4,300) also holds appeal as the Patriots air the ball out with a depleted set of receivers. Rishard Matthews, Allen Robinson and Marvin Jones all had 95+ yards and at least one touchdown against the Bills earlier this season, and LaFell is cut from a similar cloth as these big-play receivers. Amendola is more of a shifty underneath receiver, which can still find success against the Bills, but LaFell offers a lower ownership percentage and a lot of big play upside. He will see coverage from Stephon Gilmore if the Bills line up how they normally do, but don’t rule out the possibility of Gilmore and other Buffalo defenders moving around to try to keep Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,400, DK $7,700) in check. The Bills have done well against most tight ends this season, but not against Gronk, and they can go all-out to slow him down with limited other options in the passing game for New England. Will that be enough to stop Gronk? Probably not. But it might limit his upside just a bit. He’s still viable in all formats, but his price remains a bit prohibitive for a player seeing sporadic volume in recent weeks.
The Takeaway: The Patriots have several obvious plays this weekend, as Brady, Blount and Amendola are core plays and can be used in all formats. Just don’t ignore LaFell, who has big-play potential, and Gronkowski, who is tough to afford but offers huge upside.