NFL Primetime Preview: Week 13
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Indianapolis Colts | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 17 | 17 | 26 | Offense | 24.2 | 9 | 5 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 11 | 31 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 23.6 | 17 | 27 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 | 1 | 31 | 29 | Indianapolis Colts | 22 | 21 | 21 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 103 | 51 | 5 | 819 | Brown | 126 | 85 | 5 | 1220 | |
| Moncrief | 83 | 52 | 5 | 584 | Bryant | 55 | 27 | 6 | 541 | |
| Johnson | 53 | 26 | 3 | 323 | Wheaton | 45 | 25 | 2 | 474 | |
| Fleener | 58 | 39 | 2 | 352 | Miller | 56 | 39 | 1 | 390 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andrew Luck (IND, Out), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, Probable), Martavis Bryant (PIT, Questionable), Heath Miller (PIT, Doubtful)
IND Matchup Rating: 5.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.5
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Teams from Pennsylvania have had a tough time stopping the pass lately, as the Steelers joined the Eagles in allowing five passing touchdowns by letting Russell Wilson accomplish the feat this past week. Prior to that, the Steelers had allowed four passing scores to Derek Carr in Week 9, and four to Tom Brady in Week 1. There’s big-game upside against this Steeler pass defense, but is Matt Hasselbeck (FD $6,500, DK $5,300) the right guy to capitalize on a highly volatile matchup like this? The veteran signal caller has two passing scores in each of his last three starts, and went over 300 yards against the Bucs last time out. it’s doubtful that we see four or five scores from the wise old passer, but 300 yards and a couple of scores would be a great return on investment for a cheap price. There are a ton of quarterbacks who can offer a similar outcome this week, but there’s more upside for Hasselbeck than other passers thanks to the recent performances from the Steeler defense, so he’s slightly higher on my list of options for tournaments.
Running Game: Frank Gore (FD $6,200, DK $4,300) is hurting, and Ahmad Bradshaw is done for the year. Dan Herron (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has returned to the Colts and can offer a few useful snaps out of the backfield to spell Gore, but it’s unlikely the Colts find much room to work against a Steeler run defense that ranks first in numberFire’s rankings, and 30th in points allowed to RBs. Stick to the air if you’re targeting the Indy offense this week.
Pass Catchers: Donte Moncrief (FD $6,400, DK $4,600) had a solid day against the Bucs, finding open space against their soft corners, and could have a similar performance against the Steelers. However, according to PFF’s grades, he’ll most frequently have the relatively tough matchup with Ross Cockrell as opposed to lining up against Antwon Blake. That will be the privilege of T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,300, DK $5,700) more often than not, although both corners have allowed plenty of fantasy points this season. John Brown, Doug Baldwin, Torrey Smith A.J. Green and more are among the wideouts with 100+ yards against the Steelers, seven in all, with an additional three receivers and two tight ends going over 80 yards against Mike Tomlin’s team. I can’t trust any Indy tight ends, but Moncrief and Hilton are both strong options this weekend.
The Takeaway: The Colts have a ton of upside against an occasionally disastrous Pittsburgh defense, but the range of outcomes here is very wide. Don’t over-invest in this offense, but don’t ignore it, either.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: When Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,100, DK $6,600) is under center, matchup doesn’t matter for the Steelers. Pittsburgh scored 30 points against the Seahawks last week, and totaled 538 yards of offense against a defense ranked in the top ten of nearly every statistic and metric. The touchdowns weren’t there for Big Ben, and he had to leave the same early due to a concussion, but he looks to be cleared and ready to face a Colts defense that has been decent this season, but certainly not strong against the pass. The Colts rank 17th in DVOA against the throw, and 23rd in numberFire’s rankings, so their status as a tougher-than-average team to score against from a fantasy perspective could come to an end this week. Roethlisberger is a top option in any format.
Running Game: If you’re not rostering Big Ben, you’ll want to roster DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,200, DK $5,600). And in tournaments, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to get both, as this Pittsburgh offense could outscore every non-Patriot offense on the slate this weekend. The Colts have allowed the tenth-most points to opposing backs, but that doesn’t matter much for Williams, who is a volume machine and will get his yards and points via the ground or air depending on how the game unfolds. Indy has allowed big games to backs on the ground (Ingram) and through the air (Foster), so there’s definitely precedent for a 20+ point FanDuel night for Williams.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown (FD $9,000, DK $8,600) and Martavis Bryant (FD $6,900, DK $5,600) will remain the focal points for the Steeler offense, while Markus Wheaton (FD $6,000, DK $3,600) will possibly crash the party for one more week thanks for a favorable matchup. Brown will spend time against Vontae Davis for most of the game, which isn’t the end of the world for any receiver, but is still worthy of noting when considering upside and target distribution. Despite having a subpar season, he still allows fewer fantasy points per route than the other Indy corners. Bryant will see more of Greg Toler who has been very poor this season, while Wheaton will get a chance to run routes against the poor interior defenders in the secondary for the Colts. Brown has a high floor thanks to his role as Ben’s first option and his big-play ability, but Bryant has a great matchup and multi-touchdown potential, and Wheaton could have another big game before he disappears into obscurity yet again, but he has the lowest floor of the three as the least talented wideout of the bunch. Jesse James (FD $4,600, DK $2,500) is a name to watch at tight end, as Heath Miller is looking unlikely to play, and James would step into a bigger role in that situation. He’s not a lock to produce, but he has the size to be a red-zone threat, and could wind up scoring a touchdown and hauling in a couple of passes against the Colts, who have allowed the 12th-most points to tight ends this year.
The Takeaway: The Steelers are an offense to trust when they’re at full strength, and while Le’Veon Bell and possibly Health Miller would be noteworthy absences, there are enough pieces in place to expect a big game from the Pittsburgh offense.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 42 | 18.75 | -4.5 | 42 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.5 | 29 | 27 | 12 | Offense | 21.9 | 21 | 19 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.3 | 20 | 12 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 18 | 5 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 20 | 17 | 25 | 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 27 | 4 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 50 | 23 | 2 | 280 | Garcon | 77 | 49 | 3 | 508 | |
| Williams | 61 | 33 | 3 | 491 | Jackson | 24 | 12 | 2 | 212 | |
| Beasley | 52 | 39 | 3 | 392 | Crowder | 60 | 45 | 1 | 421 | |
| Witten | 71 | 55 | 2 | 508 | Reed | 75 | 55 | 6 | 541 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tony Romo (DAL, Out), Chris Thompson (WAS, Questionable)
DAL Matchup Rating: 2.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.0
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: With Tony Romo sidelined yet again, it will be Matt Cassel (FD $6,200, DK $5,100) taking snaps for the Cowboys. And apart from a solid game against the terrible Eagles, Cassel has thrown just two touchdowns in four other starts, with four interceptions in those games. He’s not a good quarterback, and is only worthy of consideration in a premier matchup. Washington could be considered a premier matchup for opposing QBs lately, having allowed five touchdown passes to Cam Newton in Week 11, and at least two in every game since Week 6. But Cassel is a step below every passer who has thrown a touchdown against Washington this season (with Nick Foles providing the only exception), and we just can’t feel confident that he’s going to be able to succeed even in a good matchup. There are too many good values at QB to roll with Cassel, especially considering how slow the Cowboys and their opponents will play in this contest.
Running Game: Darren McFadden (FD $7,300, DK $5,300) should continue to feature heavily in the Dallas offense, as the all-purpose back will receive check-down targets from Cassel as well as rushing attempts. Washington ranks 21st in run defense according to DVOA, and while they’ve limited rushing touchdowns from opposing backs this year, they have not limited yardage allowed, and are fourth in yards per attempt given up this season. McFadden could rush for 100 yards and haul in a few passes and hit value in a PPR without a touchdown, which he may have to do considering the state of the Dallas offense.
Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant (FD $7,200, DK $7,500) is an incredible talent, but he’s tough to trust even when his Pro Bowl quarterback is under center. He may haul in a jump ball or lucky deep throw from Cassel at some point before the season is over, and there’s certainly no one on the Washington roster who is going to stop him from bringing down a contested catch, but the quality and amount of targets he’ll see doesn’t justify his salary. Cassel really drags down the offense, but his lack of downfield aggression does generate opportunities for Jason Witten (FD $5,600, DK $4,700). He could catch seven or eight passes and be viable in PPR formats, but there are better players to target at tight end this weekend who have actual touchdown aspirations.
The Takeaway: The Cowboys are a limited offense without Tony Romo, and Darren McFadden is the only player worthy of serious consideration this weekend.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NFL, but Washington isn’t far behind, which limits the already unappealing Kirk Cousins (FD $6,600, DK $5,200). Cousins has thrown for one touchdown in all but two of his starts this season, and while he does have two 3+ touchdown pass starts, and a couple of rushing scores, he still has a very boring, unproductive floor. The Cowboys are a better pass defense than the two Cousins has thrown for multiple scores against (New Orleans and Tampa), so I’ll pass on the Washington passer this weekend.
Running Game: Alfred Morris (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) has a very curious game log over the past three weeks, as he carried 15 times for 92 yards in Week 10, then had two rushes for 0 yards in Week 11, followed by 23 attempts and 78 yards last week. The outlier of the three came against Carolina, one of the league’s elite defenses, while the other two came against lesser defenses of the Giants and Saints. Dallas is closer to the latter than the former, especially against the run, so if Morris gets 15-20 touches, he could have a pretty nice day on the ground. Dallas has allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season, but three of those were scored by one man in one game (Freeman), so temper expectations on the touchdown-scoring front. No other Washington back is seeing regular volume, so it’s tough to trust either of the other two options (Thompson, Jones), even if you like their talent.
Pass Catchers: Since Week 4, no wideout for Washington has seen more than nine targets in a game, and that was Jamison Crowder (FD $5,300, DK $3,500), who was stepping up into a bigger role with injuries all around him. Now that the receiving corps is healthier, the wideouts split work and are tough to trust for fantasy purposes. Jordan Reed (FD $5,900, DK $5,300) remains the most reliable player on the offense, but the Cowboys are pretty good at defending tight ends, so his upside is limited. This game will be slow and low scoring, and DeSean Jackson (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) and Pierre Garcon (FD $5,400, DK $4,200) just don’t see enough work to merit a spot in your lineups, so steer clear of this passing game altogether, with Reed providing the best play if you insist upon having a Monday night hammer.
The Takeaway: Washington should pull together enough offense to beat Dallas in what should be an incredibly boring game to watch, but there’s not a lot here to like from a fantasy perspective. Steer clear of this game in DFS, with a couple of tournament exceptions (McFadden, Reed).