NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 16th - Page Three

by Ben (benwell311) Last Updated 2017-03-16 17:28:31

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St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks

St. Louis Blues					San Jose Sharks
			Carter Hutton					Martin Jones
			Record					Record
			36-28-5					42-20-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.76	2.78	22.00%	84.10%	Team Stats	2.76	2.33	16.70%	82.00%

Blues 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.6 CF% / 54.4 GF% / 50.1 xGF%
Sharks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 52.2 CF% / 60.2 GF% / 51.8 xGF%

The Blues played in Anaheim last night and will continue their California trip with their third game in four nights. The offense predictably struggled last night and they figure to do so again here. San Jose is on a roll right now and they are slightly above average defensively in 5v5 xGA/60. They are also rested and Marc-Edouard Vlasic is healthy. He is one bad hombre to play against and figures to play almost exclusively against the top line. His low CA/60 and HDCA/60 indicate this could be another quiet night for Vladimir Tarasenko and the Blues top line. St. Louis has proven to be unreliable offensively outside of this line and they make for sketchy DFS assets tonight. Only twice in seven March games have San Jose netminders had 30 or more shots get through. The optimism cup runneth over…

San Jose will be playing their fourth game in six nights, and while it’s been a homestand for them, there is some question as to whether the veterans of the group feel fatigued. Joe Pavelski cares not for such ridiculous narratives, though, as he is on an absolute tear at the moment. Pavelski has scored seven times in his last five games, including back-to-back two goal games. Brent Burns hasn’t scored in a calendar month, but the bearded one is still racking up shots. Eventually he will light the lamp again but it’s tough waiting for that when he’s not paying off his exorbitant salary most nights. Jake Allen wasn’t overly busy in Anaheim last night so we could see the Blues turn back to him as opposed to rolling with Carter Hutton. Allen has been a little worse than Hutton stopping high-danger shots whereas Hutton has been weaker on medium-danger attempts. This is a bit nitpicky, of course, and the Blues maintain one of the lowest xGA/60 rates at 5v5. They don’t allow much in the way of shot attempts and they have a strong penalty kill to boot. They are a boring team, and this game could be low event overall. With 11 other games and some with some shootout (the good kind) appeal, a late night Sharks hammer may not be the most cost effective play.

Blues Elite Plays: None
Blues Secondary Plays: None

Sharks Elite Plays:Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns
Sharks Secondary Plays:Logan Couture, Joe Thornton

Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings

Buffalo Sabres					Los Angeles Kings
			Robin Lehner					Jonathan Quick
			Record					Record
			28-30-12					33-29-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.54	2.82	23.60%	76.20%	Team Stats	2.46	2.48	19.40%	85.00%

Sabres 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 46.3 CF% / 43.8 GF% / 48.6 xGF%
Kings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.7 CF% / 44.9 GF% / 52.8 xGF%

Buffalo started their California trip on a high note, scoring the first goal of the game early against the Sharks. They went on to lose 5-1. Tonight they’ll be pitted against a Kings defense that can be suffocating but can’t seem to get out of their own way. The Sabres enter with one of the lowest 5v5 expected goals-for/60 and will matchup with a team that sports one of the lowest expected goals-allowed/60, so it’s hard to get too excited by Buffalo’s top six here. At the same time, we can’t ignore that Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, and to a lesser extent Sam Reinhart have done lately. Jonathan Quick has consistently allowed at least two goals in each of his past four starts, though Quick and Ben Bishop have only seen one game of more than 25 shots faced in their combined past five starts. So, we are looking at a likely low volume effort for the Buffalo forwards tonight. The Kings really stamp out high-danger shots, too, so what Buffalo can get to the net figures to be of diminished quality. To make matters worse, the Kings will likely deploy Anze Kopitar against the Jack Eichel line. While Kopitar is having something of a down year all around, he remains a difficult player to play against and makes red hot Eichel a risky play at his elevated price. The matchup will be better for Kane and O’Reilly, but again, the Kings are a system team. They are loaded with players up and down the lineup with strong Corsi-For percentages whereas Buffalo has just four players above water (50%). The Kings are playing their third game in four nights and couldn’t pick up a much-needed two points against Arizona, but Buffalo is not in a great spot.

After a massive failure against the Coyotes in their last game (and it was at home), the Kings need a strong effort here to keep their dimming playoff hopes alive. Thankfully they have another favorable matchup on tap. The Sabres have one of the highest CA/60 rates in the league and the Kings one of the highest CF/60 numbers. This is a possession mismatch, to put it lightly. In theory, there shouldn’t be anything keeping this from being a Kings-heavy game with plenty of attacking zone time. Buffalo is seeing their high-danger shot attempts allowed creep up at 5v5 too, a poor development for them as Robin Lehner has really struggled stopping such shots. The icing on top is the fact that Buffalo has a horrendous penalty kill, so while they do tend to avoid staying out of the sin bin excessively, the Sabres struggle to kill off the results of said sins. Vegas has the Kings as pretty heavy favorites here and with Tyler Toffoli resurrected in the last game, ownership should be high on That 70’s Line. Marian Gaborik and Jarome Iginla continue to play next to Anze Kopitar and come at a steep discount, but they both have low floors. Gaborik is a sneaky play as despite his limited usage, he has a very respectable HDCF/60 rate at 5v5 (the Kopitar effect). While the Kings have been a letdown at various and numerous times this

Sabres Elite Plays: None
Sabres Secondary Plays: Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane

Kings Elite Plays:Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez
Kings Secondary Plays:Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik, Jarome Iginla

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