NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 16th
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes
| Minnesota Wild | Carolina Hurricanes | ||||||||
 | Darcy Kuemper |  | Cam Ward | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 43-19-6 | 28-27-12 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.28 | 2.40 | 20.80% | 83.90% | Team Stats | 2.54 | 2.85 | 17.30% | 84.30% |
Wild 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.6 CF% / 50.9 GF% / 55 xGF%
Hurricanes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.5 CF% / 42.3 GF% / 51 xGF%
The Wild have a favorable matchup on tap against a Hurricanes team that has struggled defensively and in net for much of the past few months. They are starting to play better as their high-danger shot attempts allowed at 5v5 are slowly dropping, but Minnesota has the personnel to take advantage tonight. The Wild are in the top third of the league in generating high-danger shots, and neither Cam Ward nor Eddie Lack has stopped them very well this year. The CF% for Minnesota is ugly, to be sure, but a lot of that is driven by the fact the defense is ceding an elevated number of shot attempts. Minnesota’s offense should have a favorable draw of quality over quantity in Carolina. Eric Staal (#NarrativeStreet alert) will return to his old stomping grounds in great form as he emerges from his slump, having now scored four goals in his past three games. He, Nino Neiderreiter, and Charlie Coyle form an interesting line in this matchup. The line should play pretty well, so they should be able to generate a few scoring chances, and the prices are down on the wingers right now. Zach Parise and Jason Pominville form the low floor, high ceiling duo on the third line. The shot volume has been an issue for these two, but their shots are proportionally higher danger attempts. Carolina is the least penalized team so there is no power play bump for the Wild.
Apparently all the Hurricanes had to do to realize their xGF% potential was to make landfall on Long Island (I have plenty more hurricane related segues). After an eight goal outburst against the Islanders the team only potted two on the second night of a back-to-back, not a surprising result after such a wild game the night before. Their matchup is the opposite of Minnesota’s tonight: they should expect to pump up the shot volume but will likely see a low number of high-danger shots. Minnesota bends but doesn’t break, as they have the eighth worst CA/60 rate while they are among the leaders in fewest scoring chances allowed per 60 and HDCA/60. Devan Dubnyk is coming off two poor starts in a row (early hook at Chicago, four goals allowed on 40 shots versus Washington). Betting against him with a team that has thus far failed to realize their goal potential is risky, to say the least, but there is certainly a valid case to be made for Carolina’s offense. Players with bankable volume like Jeff Skinner and Sebastian Aho are the most likely to come out ahead. Carolina has also seen their defensemen activate a little bit more, but be wary of chasing Jaccob Slavin’s hat trick from Monday night.
Wild Elite Plays:Zach Parise, Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Suter
Wild Secondary Plays:Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle (GPP), Jason Pominville (GPP), Jared Spurgeon
Hurricanes Elite Plays:Jeff Skinner, Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk
Hurricanes Secondary Plays:Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen
Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders
| Winnipeg Jets | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Connor Hellebuyck |  | Thomas Greiss | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-33-7 | 33-25-11 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.94 | 3.19 | 17.30% | 76.40% | Team Stats | 2.94 | 2.99 | 15.50% | 80.70% |
Jets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.4 CF% / 50.7 GF% / 49.9 xGF%
Islanders 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.6 CF% / 47.7 GF% / 47.4 xGF%
After an impressive performance in Nashville, the Winnipeg forwards get a little breather with Tuesday’s game having been postponed. Tonight they’ll go up against a Brooklyn defense playing their third game in four nights, and one that struggled mightily in a home-and-home with the Hurricanes. The Jets are built pretty similarly to the Hurricanes in that they have a top six chock full of quick, young forwards, although Carolina’s system is a bit different. With New York goaltending struggling a bit, look for this to be a volume driven game for Winnipeg forwards. Winnipeg’s offensive team metrics aren’t overly impressive, but I think this has a little more to do with the lack of a quality bottom six – the top six is high end. There aren’t any true matchup worries with the Islanders. The John Tavares line tends to drive play well, but their CA/60 number isn’t anything to shy away from. Again, there is a nice floor with Winnipeg forwards as shot volume should be there, though quality may be something less bankable. The Islanders defense is prone to allowing scoring chances, and Winnipeg’s top six is built to capitalize. Probably starter Thomas Greiss has allowed 14 goals over his past five starts (not including the four he allowed in a relief role against Carolina) and has been battling through inconsistency of late.
New York’s offense has been a bit quiet lately, primarily due to the top line of John Tavares, Anders Lee, and Josh Bailey seeing their production slow some. They are still a pretty dangerous trio though, as they have been generating a solid rate of high-danger shot attempts at 5v5. They also get a fantastic power play advantage here, as the Jets are an undisciplined team and have a very poor penalty kill rate. The Jets are seeing their shot attempts allowed number increase and overall the defense is starting to fade – they were a legitimate 5v5 team for much of the year. New York’s second line will be subject to change based on Brock Nelson’s availability. He was scratched prior to last game and if he is out, Josh Ho-Sang, Andrew Ladd, and Ryan Strome will make up the second unit (with Strome likely sliding down if Nelson plays). This line, with the exception of Andrew Ladd, looked good against Carolina last time out, particularly Ho-Sang who could have realistically had a hat trick (I’m not bitter). Ho-Sang is a strong value play as he finds his footing in the NHL. Ladd was a ghost for the most part and is a low floor option while Strome has interest as a member of the top power play unit going against a weak penalty kill. Likely opposing netminder Connor Hellebuyck has seen his 5v5 save percentage numbers dip from last year almost entirely due to issues stopping high-danger shot attempts. The Tavares lines puts up a healthy amount of such shots, so they in an all around good spot here.
Jets Elite Plays:Patrik Laine, Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler
Jets Secondary Plays:Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien, Josh Morrissey (if Trouba sits)
Islanders Elite Plays:John Tavares, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, Josh Ho-Sang
Islanders Secondary Plays:Ryan Strome (GPP), Nick Leddy
Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals
| Nashville Predators | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 34-24-11 | 45-17-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.94 | 2.78 | 20.50% | 79.80% | Team Stats | 3.19 | 2.16 | 21.20% | 84.00% |
Predators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.7 CF% / 49.7 GF% / 51.8 xGF%
Capitals 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.6 CF% / 60.8 GF% / 51.7 xGF%
The Predators are flying high right now, getting great production from the top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson. This may be a great time to get this trio at reasonable ownership as they play in Washington tonight. Though the Caps don’t allow a heavy volume of shots and they have a Vezina caliber goalie in Braden Holtby, we should see a high event game unfold in the capitol. This would especially be the case if the top line draws out against Washington’s top line, as the puck would figure to resemble less of a puck and more of a pong pixel. (This was a call back attempt to the excellent Ovechkin “unplugged controller” gif.) Washington’s defense has seen their high-danger shot attempts stabilize some, and these types of shots are about the only thing to get by Braden Holtby right now at 5v5 (seriously, Holtby has an adjusted save percentage on low-danger shots of 99.14%) and the top line is consistently generating such shots right now. Eventually Holtby is going to reanimate as the shutdown goalie we all know, so picking players against him is risky. That, however, is what makes the top line interesting in GPPs tonight. Outside of the top trio, things get a bit murkier and risky for a road team in against a high end club on a full sized slate. Nashville’s power play is humming along at 20.5% efficiency, and with Washington being in contention for most times shorthanded this year, there is something of a boost there for the Nashville top unit (though Washington kills penalties well).
Last time the Caps played, Nicklas Backstrom played an outstanding game and even elevated the abilities of his lousy winger named Alex Ovechkin. It was Ovi’s first goal in 10 games, and it’s fair to wonder if we see him go on a run. Even when he wasn’t scoring, his shot attempt effort has been trending upward, so consider buying on him while there is any kind of public discount. With Pekka Rinne in net and Washington at home, the Capitals offense can explode at any time. Rinne has been down right horrible for an extended stretch, and he’s typically better at home anyway. While Nashville’s defense is an all around solid group, the likelihood of this game turning in to something of a track meet increases the outlook for the offense. Focusing on players that sport a solid high-danger Corsi-For at 5v5 seems like the best approach here given Rinne’s struggles against quality shots. Justin Williams could easily get swallowed up by Nashville’s strong defense here, but he sports a HDCF/60 that puts him among the upper echelon of Washington forwards. He’s worth a look in tournaments as he keeps plugging away in his age-35 season. Nashville is middle of the pack in terms of penalties, but they are vulnerable on the penalty kill, especially with Rinne struggling against dangerous shots. That makes Washington’s power play of interest as it usually is. Kevin Shattenkirk will return from suspension tonight so who Barry Trotz puts on the top power play unit for defenders is somewhat unknown. Shattenkirk logged heavy minutes there after his acquisition but then saw John Carlson take back the spot. Keep an eye on the morning skate information here, but Carlson gave back the role (whew) to Shattenkirk before the suspension. Got all that?
Predators Elite Plays:Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson
Predators Secondary Plays:Ryan Johansen, James Neal, Roman Josi
Capitals Elite Plays:Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams (GPP), Kevin Shattenkirk
Capitals Secondary Plays:Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson, Marcus Johansson
Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils
| Philadelphia Flyers | New Jersey Devils | ||||||||
 | Michal Neuvirth |  | Keith Kinkaid | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 32-29-8 | 25-31-12 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.50 | 2.94 | 20.30% | 79.70% | Team Stats | 2.21 | 2.87 | 17.90% | 80.50% |
Flyers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.8 CF% / 38.1 GF% / 46.9 xGF%
Devils 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.2 CF% / 43.5 GF% / 48.3 xGF%
The Flyers played at home against the Penguins last night. While it’s conceivable this is a letdown game after a big performance blanking their cross-state rivals, it is an interesting matchup for the Flyers. On the one hand, their offense will be going against a low talent blueline, and this is theoretically a game in which Philadelphia’s offense can see their goals-for rate improve. On the other hand, the Devils are one of the most boring teams in the league (read: a low event soulsucker) and rivalry games can be wonky. New Jersey is slightly above average at limiting 5v5 shot attempts against, above average in limiting scoring chances, and elite in keeping shots from being high-danger. Of course, the Devils get by on their system (though it’s not your fathers’ trap) and less on talent, so there are areas to exploit. Philadelphia has been pretty good at generating shot attempts of late, but their quality of shots are ever so slowly increasing. They may run into issues generating high-danger scoring chances here, but lucky for them, Cory Schneider is in rough form. The Devils are a one line team and lack a shutdown defensive pairing. They typically put the Taylor Hall line out against opposing number ones at home, so look for Hall to draw out against the Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Jordan Weal (or Brayden Schenn) line. With a potentially difficult on-ice matchup and a low event game likely, there is some risk in deploying this line, especially as Giroux’s price versus production this year is a bit off. This does, however, set up nice for the second and third lines. Travis Konecny is looking healthy again and appears to be up to the second line with Jakub Voracek and Valterri Filpulla. Voracek could see a nice shooting night and Konecny’s speed figures to give the Devils’ defenders troubles should be able to pierce the zone. Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn (if Weal plays) on the third line will also get nice looks, but they are risky plays on a 12 game slate.
If a non-existent offense is ensconced in a winter storm and their game gets postponed, does anyone really notice? If nothing else, the Devils will be well rested against their rivals tonight. As mentioned above, the Devils are a one line team and relying on any forwards outside of Taylor Hall, Adam Henrique or Travis Zajac, and Kyle Palmieri is risky. This line will likely go against the Giroux line, which has seen a fair share of shot attempts with varying quality. With Philly playing last night, the Devils should work against Michal Neuvirth, he of the second worst 5v5 save percentage among all goalies that have played 400 minutes this year. So perhaps there is hope for the Devils tonight? Travis Zajac should be back in the lineup after leaving the team for the birth of a child, and he should slot back in the top line. That would push Adam Henrique down to the second line with Miles Wood, while Pavel Zacha moves to a bottom third role. If Zacha were to swing over to a wing spot, there is some potential value there, but the floor is pretty low.
Flyers Elite Plays:Jakub Voracek
Flyers Secondary Plays:Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere, Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux
Devils Elite Plays:Taylor Hall
Devils Secondary Plays:Kyle Palmieri
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets
| Florida Panthers | Columbus Blue Jackets | ||||||||
 | James Reimer |  | Sergei Bobrovsky | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-27-11 | 44-18-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.45 | 2.79 | 16.80% | 86.10% | Team Stats | 3.19 | 2.34 | 21.90% | 82.80% |
Panthers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 48.9 CF% / 45.9 GF% / 47.5 xGF%
Blue Jackets 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.3 CF% / 54.9 GF% / 51.2 xGF%
Coming off a strong and crucial win over the Leafs, the Panthers should be involved in another high-event game tonight. The offense has ugly year-to-date numbers at 5v5, but the team has the tools necessary to make a lot from a little. Specifically, they have three lines that are useful to us in DFS. Columbus likes to use the line of Brandon Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson, and Boone Jenner against opposing top lines at home. These three have the worst 5v5 CA/60, SCA/60, and HDCA/60 of all members of the Blue Jackets. Therefore, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Jaromir Jagr should get plenty of good looks tonight. The second and third lines should see blended playing time against the second and third lines of the Jackets, and given that Florida doesn’t produce many high-danger scoring chances, this may not be a fruitful night. Sergei Bobrovsky has been about league average against low-danger shots and near the top of the rankings in high-danger saves. This could be a high volume, low danger night for him, which oddly goes against how he’s performed this year, though that’s not to say that Panthers forwards with high shot volumes will cash in.
Florida does not allow many scoring chances or high-danger shot attempts, but with Aaron Ekblad out of the lineup, there is a pretty big number of minutes that need to be reallocated. Columbus is relentless on offense and despite Florida having strong 5v5 defensive numbers, they should be able to generate some quality chances. Fun fact: Scott Hartnell ranks eighth out of 577 skaters (that have played 300 minutes) in 5v5 points/60 (2.8). Of course he only plays about 13 minutes per night, but he’s efficient when he’s out there. Tucked away on the third line, he and linemate Sam Gagner should get some favorable matchups. Florida is generally an unfavorable matchup, though poor goaltending has plagued them for much of the year. James Reimer has taken over as the number one with Roberto Luongo apparently still ailing. Reimer’s overall 5v5 save percentage is middle of the pack; he’s near the top of the pack against low and medium danger shots but about average against high-danger shots. As Columbus generates plenty of high-danger shots, he could struggle in this road draw. With the Atkinson line soaking up the tougher minutes, Brandon Saad could take advantage. He’s near the top of the forwards rank on Columbus in HDCF/60, but he’s been something of a volatile commodity this year. The same goes for his center, Alex Wennberg, who lacks a cash game floor due to low shot volume, but value play Oliver Bjorkstrand looks to have rejoined the top line.
Panthers Elite Plays:Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau
Panthers Secondary Plays:Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Marchessault, Vincent Trocheck
Blue Jackets Elite Plays:Brandon Saad, Scott Hartnell (GPP), Sam Gagner (GPP)
Blue Jackets Secondary Plays:Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, David Savard