Playing on Rosters: Week 11
Coaches lie! Sometimes it’s probably on purpose to gain an edge and other times there is probably no ill intent. Let’s take the curious case of Darren Sproles as an example. Last week in this space I recommended that you play Darren Sproles. This recommendation was based on the fact that Sproles had played 80% of the offensive snaps the two weeks prior. On top of that, the guy who gets to make the decision on snaps came right out and said ‘Darren Sproles is our lead back.’ This looked like an excellent situation to target. Atlanta was giving up the 7.8 receptions and 60.7 receiving yards per game to opposing backs.
What actually happened? Ryan Mathews carried the ball 19 times (for 109 yards) Wendell Smallwood carried it 13 times (for 70 yards) and Darren Sproles carried the ball two times (for 19 yards). I don’t know about you, but next time I think I’ll play the guy who will get the most carries instead of the “lead back.” To be fair to Doug Pederson, he wasn’t lying about Sproles being the lead back if the number of snaps is the measure (not touches). Sproles played 31 offensive snaps while Mathews and Smallwood played 26 and 19 snaps respectively.
There are a couple of important DFS takeaways here. First of all, just because something has been happening doesn’t mean it always will. For example, if a 33-year-old Running Back who has never been a bell cow starts getting 80% of the snaps it may not last forever. Second of all, we should try to listen to what coaches say and determine what they actually meant. Sproles was announced as the starter last week and he did play the most snaps. That’s technically a “lead back.” Doug Pederson never said that Sproles would continue to get 80% of the carries every week. That’s what I heard because that’s what I wanted to hear. This is what I mean when I say that we should evaluate our process in DFS and being willing to admit when that process was flawed.
The other important thing to remember in DFS is that you are never as good as your best call and you are never as bad as your worst. If the overall process is working, only minor tweaks are needed: For example, not trying to predict Philadelphia Eagles RB usage. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Week 11 Rosters slate and see if we can find some plays that won’t disappoint. As a reminder, if you don’t have a Rosters account you can sign up through the RotoGrinders Link and Rosters will add an additional $20 to your account when you deposit $10 or more. (Please note: The bonus is applied manually and could take up to a day to be credited).
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins ($10,800) – This is the first week that I’ve written this article where I haven’t recommended two expensive QBs. I’m not saying you shouldn’t play Andrew Luck or Ben Roethlisberger. What I’m saying is that Cousins and Bortles (who we’ll get to) offer enough savings to get competent Wide Receivers and Running Backs which I think is important. The rest of these recommendations are sort of based on the idea that we’re able to save a little money at QB and TE. I’m doing that because I don’t really have a cheap guy (like Darren Sproles?) to give you this week. That doesn’t mean there isn’t value, I’m just not going that route.
Anyways, that’s enough about lineup construction. Let’s talk about Kirk Cousins. The Packers have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games. If you watched any of the Packers at Titans game last week you saw a defense that simply can’t stop anyone right now. In his last eight games, Cousins has no less than 18.32 Rosters points in every game except one. That one was against a Baltimore defense that’s better than people give credit. For $10,800 you’re buying an awful late of safety for dirt cheap here. Cousins also has the upside to match the guys at the top end.
Blake Bortles ($10,800) – The Lions are a great matchup for any QB. They are 31st against the pass using Football Outsiders DVOA. On top of that, the Lions allow an average of 2 fantasy points per possession to QB and 83.3% of their TDs allowed have been passing TDs. While Blake Bortles isn’t a good real life QB he does put up good fantasy numbers—at least in garbage time. Bortles has at least 12.94 points in every game and most have been closer to 20 or more.
Running Back
LeVeon Bell ($15,800) – Rosters is a site that awards one point-per-reception. I’m sure you are probably aware of that. I’m sure you are also aware that LeVeon Bell is a running back who catches a lot of passes. If Bell were a WR he would rank 15th in the league with 9.3 targets per game. This week Bell faces off against the Cleveland Browns who allow 28.51 points per game to opposing RBs. If you ever doubt the safety of Bell consider this. Last week, Bell scored just his second TD of the season yet he’s averaging 23.05 Rosters points per game which trails only David Johnson.
LeGarrette Blount ($10,100) – This recommendation is sort of the opposite of Bell. Blount catches almost zero passes but he always seems to get a TD. He’s scored in every single game since Tom Brady returned from suspension. This week Blount draws a dream matchup against the league’s worst run defense. The 49ers allow an average of 160.22 rushing yards per game. While there is some concern that James White and Dion Lewis could steal some production here that concern is alleviated by the opponent. When you play the 49ers there are plenty of points to go around. They allow 32.87 points per game to opposing RBs.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans ($15,200) – Sometimes DFS players make the mistake of seeing a team like the Chiefs on the schedule and assuming it is a tough matchup for Mike Evans. Let’s be clear, the Chiefs have one of the best corners in the league in Marcus Peters. He lines up at LCB 92% of the time. On the other side of the field is Phillip Gaines. Peters Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade is 80.9 while Gaines gets a 39.5. Mike Evans typically lines up at LWR (47% per PFF). The Buccaneers will likely line Evans up at LWR almost the entire game to avoid Peters. Last week was only the second week all season Evans did not see double-digit targets. The Chiefs allow 173.2 yards per game to opposing WRs. Most of those are not coming against Peters. I expect Tampa Bay to throw a heavy dose of Evans at the Chiefs and I also expect it to work.
Jamison Crowder ($8,300) – This recommendation is somewhat based health of DeSean Jackson. If Jackson misses another week, then Crowder is an excellent option. On the season, Crowder has just one game he didn’t reach double-digit points. Over the last three weeks, Crowder has been targeted 27 times. In each of those games he has either 100+ yards receiving or a TD. As I mentioned above, the Packers have allowed 30 points in each of their last three games.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($6,600) – Based on early week reports, Rob Gronkowski has a punctured lung. He wasn’t even allowed to fly to a promotional event earlier this week. I find it unlikely that he’ll make the cross-country trip to San Francisco this week. That should open plenty of targets for Martellus Bennett. We’ve already seen what he’s capable of as the main TE in this offense. The expected increase in plays due to facing an up-tempo 49er attack and the additional targets from Gronkowski being out make Bennett an excellent value.
Zach Miller ($6,200) – With Alshon Jeffery beginning his four-game suspension this week there are going to be some targets up for grabs in this Bears offense. Jeffery was averaging 10 targets per game. Zach Miller already has a 19.2% share of the Chicago targets on the season. Zach Miller will face off against a Giants defense that 5.7 receptions and 65 yards per game to opposing TEs.
Defense and Kickers
As I’ve done every week recently instead of recommending a Kicker and Defense I’ll point you to a great place to find one. Stewburtx8 does a great job of selecting defenses each week using a specific criteria. His article is located here. He has seven defense listed for you to take a look at. As far as Kickers go,my strategy has always been to avoid kickers in bad weather and games with a low total. Sportsgrinder does a much better job of analyzing kickers each week and I’ll update this article with a link to his Kicker study which will be posted shortly.
With that, I’m out of here for the week. Good luck on your Rosters lineups this week. As always, if you have any questions feel free to drop me a comment below, send me a message here on RotoGrinders or even just come find me on Twitter. SethayatesDFS is the handle.