Raybon’s Rollout: NFL Week 8
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
Last week was one of the more amazing weeks for the chalk in recent memory, which could lead to some of the more inexperienced DFS players being overly confident in the chalk this week, potentially failing to differentiate their lineups in the process. Rather than aiming for unique lineups strictly by who you play and fade, the best course of action is to pick your spots with chalk and aim to gain differentiation with roster construction and unique pairing of players.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Jameis Winston + RB Jacquizz Rodgers + WR Mike Evans
After the Bucs’ trio dominated the 49ers on the road last week, they get to come home to another birthday-cake-soft matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed the most yards per play (6.7), total yards per game (430.4), and passing yards per game (302.1) in the league. Oakland ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and 27th in run defense DVOA.
What is especially enticing about this stack is how concentrated the Bucs’ offense has been since Doug Martin and Charles Sims went down. Rodgers is averaging 31 touches per game and Evans is averaging 12.5 targets per game in the two games over that span. The duo has accounted for 64% of the team’s touches and 52% of its yardage over that span as well.
QB Brock Osweiler + WR Will Fuller + TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
A wise man once said “be greedy when others are fearful.” Or was it “be greedy despite the fact that Brock Osweiler has epically sucked because the defense he’s facing epically sucks even more”? It’s one of those. Whatever. The point is, the Lions gave up a QB2 finish to Case Keenum the week before last. Taking over for the automotive industry as the most rapidly declining entity in Detroit, the Lions defense ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. Like Cleveland once did in a hastily made tourism video, the rest of the league’s worst defenses see the Lions and think ‘at least we’re not Detroit’.
Osweiler has struggled on the road, but faced three of the toughest road matchups possible: New England, Minnesota, and Denver. At home, Osweiler has been solid, with an average of 255.5 passing yards, 1.75 TDs, and a 63% completion rate. Will Fuller has been banged up as of late and has also fallen victim to the aforementioned tough matchups, but in three home games, his stat lines have been 5-107-1, 4-104-0, and 7-81-1 with a second TD on a punt return. Fiedorowicz has been quietly emerging — he has drawn 7+ targets from Osweiler in three straight games and has caught 4+ passes in four straight games, reaching the end zone twice over that span, good for an average stat line of 4.8-57-0.5. The Lions are 27th in TE DVOA and have allowed a league-leading seven TDs to the position, a problem that extends back to last season when they led the league with 12 TDs allowed to TEs.
QB Matt Ryan + WR Julio Jones + WR Randall Cobb
Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Randall Cobb is not expected to play in Week 8.
Vegas models are expecting a shootout in the Georgia Dome, installing an over/under of 52 for Falcons-Packers. In the second year of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s system that he admittedly struggled to grasp a season ago, Matt Ryan is now performing as good as any quarterback in football. His yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (113.6) are second behind Tom Brady, and his yards per game (335.4) are second behind only Drew Brees.
Julio Jones has been going nuclear as well, leading the NFL in receiving yards per game (118.6). Julio is tops among WRs in DraftKings points per game (22.71) and second in FanDuel points per game (18.14). The Packers defense tends to discourage the run, as they allow only 3.1 yard per carry (first in the NFL) but 7.9 yards per pass attempt (27th), so the Falcons’ aerial assault should continue.
If the Falcons have offensive success and this game approaches its lofty total, the Packers offense will likely move the ball via underneath completions — Jordy Nelson hasn’t yet regained form as a vertical threat — against Atlanta’s 24th-ranked pass defense in DVOA. In three games since their Week 5 bye, Randall Cobb has drawn double-digit targets in each game, good for a team-leading 26.1% target market share. His 37 targets over that span are 10 more than his next closest teammate. With Desmond Trufant roaming the outside and likely to shadow Nelson, Cobb could again make a living on short completions.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick + RB Matt Forte + WR Brandon Marshall
With more attractive games on the slate, a stack of the struggling Jets won’t be popular, even against the Browns’ talent-deficient defense that ranks 30th in both pass and run defense DVOA.
The Browns have permitted 5.15 yards per carry, 12.4 yards per receptions, and four TDs to opposing RBs over the past three weeks. Matt Forte’s usage has been up and down this season, but he already has two 30-carry games, including last week. He set a season-high in touches (34) and percentage of snaps played (83.8%) in last week’s win over Baltimore.
Through the air, the Browns have allowed multiple TDs in all seven games this season and in 15-of-16 games dating back to last season. Back from the doldrums of a benching in favor of former punching bag Geno Smith, #AngryRyan should be able to continue the streak against what will be a much easier opponent than any he’s faced to date.
RB David Johnson + D/ST Arizona Cardinals
Johnson is the league leader in fantasy points at RB by a mile despite facing a defense ranked in the top half of the league by run defense DVOA in 6-of-7 games. Johnson has eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in every game, caught 3+ passes in every game, rushed for 100 yards for three games and counting (including the last two versus top-five run defenses), and handled an obscene 41 touches last week. Vegas lines, matchup — it means nothing to DJ, who has essentially become the new Le’Veon Bell.
The case for the Cardinals defense is a more contrarian one since they are three-point road underdogs in Carolina. However, the Panthers have committed the most turnovers per game in the league (2.67) and have major offensive line issues — just check out the clip of Michael Oher getting taken to IHOP by Danielle Hunter, who then goes on to sack Cam Newton for a safety. At 4for4, we have a signature metric which adjusts fantasy points allowed by strength of schedule, and the Panthers rank 29th in that metric against opposing defenses. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are second in the league in sacks (20) and turnovers forced (16).
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Colts’ Tendency to Pass Near the Goal Line
The average NFL team runs slightly more than it passes inside the 10-yard line, 50.8% to 49.2%. Not the Colts. Indianapolis has passed on 65.6% of its plays inside the 10 — only the Steelers pass more (77.8%). The name of the game in DFS in TDs, and Luck has accounted for 79% of the Colts’ TDs (and 80% of their offensive yardage) overall. This week, Luck will be at home — where he has plus splits over his career — against the Chiefs in a game with the week’s second-highest over/under (50). The chiefs’ raw DVP numbers are somewhat misleading due to a two-game stretch when they held Brock Osweiler and Ryan Fitzpatrick to a combined 39-of-73 for 456 yards with one TD and eight interceptions in Weeks 2 and 3. However, when facing more formidable foes at QB, the Chiefs haven’t fared nearly as well, allowing 300 yards and five TDs to Ben Roethlisberger in Week 4 and 367 yards and three TDs to Drew Brees in Arrowhead last week.
Luck has been the DraftKings QB4 and FanDuel QB5 this season in terms of per game scoring, yet his salary on both sites is lower than it’s been in years. Luck’s FanDuel salary of $7,900 has not been lower since Week 9 of 2012. I don’t have DraftKings data going back before 2014, but Luck’s $6,800 DK price tag is it it’s lowest point since the start of 2014. Further bolstering Luck’s chances of success this week is the fact the Colts are expected to get Donte Moncrief back. Don’t let Luck go overlooked this week.
Injury Situation to Exploit
C.J. Anderson’s Knee Injury
Rookie fourth-rounder Devontae Booker out of Utah will step into the starting role for the Broncos, who are home favorites against the Chargers. Behind the league’s sixth-best offensive line in terms of adjusted line yards, Booker (4.8 yards per carry) has been more productive than Anderson (4.0) this season. Even with Anderson playing a significant role last week, Booker racked up 18 touches for 87 yards and a TD, and is likely to eclipse those numbers this week against a Chargers defense ranked 18th in rush defense DVOA.