Risers and Fallers: Volume 5
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
PROSPECT SPOTLIGHT
Steven Moya, OF, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers called up prospect Steven Moya this weekend, and though he hasn’t made a big impact yet, I’m expecting him to. Moya comes with big power. Just crazy, bananas power. THE BAT has his projected home run rate sandwiched between those of Chris Davis and Chris Carter (basically identical to Carter), and his true platoon split is absolutely enormous—the second biggest of any active major leaguer, in fact. Against weak righties, Moya could really do some damage.
The biggest issue is the plate discipline, which is what separates him from most of the successful major league sluggers. He strikes out a lot, but he doesn’t take the walks that most guys do. That lack of discipline creates downside if he winds up being overmatched by major league pitchers and unable to lay off bad pitches, so it will be important to keep an eye on that. However, given his power, if he gets off to a good start, seeing how right-handed the Tigers lineup is, it’s not inconceivable he starts hitting fifth against righties. Even for now while hitting sixth or seventh, he’ll absolutely be a GPP option and maybe even a cash game one in certain matchups when the price is right. And on FanDuel, the price is most certainly right: the minimum $2,000. Even on DraftKings, $3,200 certainly makes him viable. The Tigers will get some weak Minnesota and Tampa Bay righties this week, so Moya will be in play.
RISING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Coming into Sunday, THE BAT had developed a major crush on Gausman, and it’s not very difficult to see why. He comes with a serious pedigree, once one of the best pitching prospects in the game, and still has great stuff. A big, mid-to-high-90s, rising fastball. A splitter that falls off the table. A breaking ball that flashes plus with great depth. Oh, and he has good control and has started generating a few more groundballs this year. All of this culminating in an 8.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 3.00 FIP this year means Gausman is a guy that we should be paying close attention to in good matchups.
He was majorly disappointing against the Tigers (some of it looked like bad luck with a couple bad calls and a ball lost in the sun that wound up being an earned run), but the appeal of the matchup was obvious given how right-handed they are, given great weather, and given the strikeout upside (see: Max Scherzer). He’ll face the Angels with a park boost into Angel Stadium this week, so he’ll absolutely be an option to consider, especially if his price goes down a bit after Sunday. $8,100 on DraftKings is already perfectly fine for a second pitcher, but if he falls into the $7,000 range, he’ll be very appealing.
Travis Jankowski, OF, San Diego Padres
Jankowski’s occasional starts have been a little less occasional lately, finding his name on the lineup card on Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday. Best of all, when he plays, it’s out of the leadoff spot. He’s hardly a household name, which might be why he was barely 10% owned on DraftKings on Sunday despite a great matchup and a $3,200 price tag.
Make no mistake, though, he has serious fantasy appeal… mostly due to his serious wheels. On Sunday his 70-grade speed allowed him to leg out a triple on a routine ball to left field that would be a double for most. He already has six steal attempts in just 31 plate appearances, and THE BAT has him projected to attempt the 11th most steals of second (in a neutral environment) of any active major leaguer—sandwiched between Jarrod Dyson and Eduardo Nunez. And the best part is that steals tend to go up in lower scoring environments as managers try to manufacture runs, which is often the case when the Padres are on the field. In a year where steals are down overall, a guy like Jankowski is very appealing when he’s leading off in good matchups. I don’t see any such matchups in the coming week, but the week after the Pads will be in Chase Field.
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
This one seems pretty obvious to me. It was only a matter of time before Jones started hitting the way we’ve come to expect him to, but now that he has four home runs in six days, he continues to be priced absurdly low on FanDuel. He’s not $2,300 like he was early in the week, but $2,700 is still way too low for a quality hitter who hits in the middle of one of baseball’s best offenses. Power, contact ability, plenty of RBIs and runs. He’s pretty much been a must-play the past few days, and there are some good matchups coming up this week, starting with lefty Wade Miley in Camden Yards on Tuesday.
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Seager seemed to get a lot of love prior to the season, maybe more in the year-long than DFS community, but he seems to be getting lost in the shuffle this year. Coming into the week he had just a.317 wOBA, but I’ve long been saying that this is bound to go up. Outside of the series in Coors, the Dodgers have played in a grand total of ONE hitters’ parks and ONE neutral park. The rest have all heavily favored pitchers, and yet Seager has boosted his wOBA to .344 in just one week. It was bound to happen for a guy as talented as he is. Here’s a list of THE BAT’s favorite shortstops in terms of true talent context-neutral wOBA:
Carlos Correa
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Seager
Trevor Story
Story has gotten all the attention as far as rookie shortstops go, and he’s in play more often because of Coors, but what most people don’t realize is that Seager is comparably talented. If he was on the Rockies he’d be a top play every night too, yet the price gap between them is often over $2,000! Seager will continue to have to deal with pitchers’ park for a couple more weeks (and every home game), but when his overall stats are being impacted by those parks and his salary is set accordingly, he’ll often come at a value when the rest of the matchup is favorable. This week, for instance, he’ll face some terrible Angels and Padres pitchers. His price tag is finally going up a little, reaching $3,800 on DraftKings on Sunday, but for as long as it stays under $4,000 (and even, perhaps, once it goes over) he’ll consistently be an option.
REMAINING LEVEL… AND REMAINING UNDERPRICED
Brad Miller, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
As Seager’s price continues to rise and reaches the point where he’s no longer undervalued, we’ll once again have to start digging deep to find a shortstop. My best guess to take up the “perpetually undervalued” mantle is Miller. He hasn’t done much lately, but I’m very optimistic about his future prospects. If I continue that list of shortstops from before, we find Miller is ranked among guys who are generally thought of more highly than he is:
Francisco Lindor
Xander Bogaerts
Brandon Crawford
Eugenio Suarez
Brad Miller
You’ve surely played one or all of these guys at some point this year, but Miller perhaps not. His .294 wOBA this year is nothing special, but it’s being dragged way down by a .232 BABIP that will surely bounce back. His 18.5% HR/FB and 36% Hard Hit rates are both career highs, and a couple weeks ago Rays manager Kevin Cash moved him up to the two-spot in the order.
It won’t be long before Miller’s stats begin to match the peripherals, and given his $3,200 DraftKings and $2,800 FanDuel price tags, there will be plenty of time for him to deliver value before his price rises to the point of being even value. This week Miller will get out of Tropicana and face some exploitable right-handers from Toronto (R.A. Dickey) and Detroit (Anibal Sanchez, Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann).
RISING… BUT I’M NOT BUYING
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox
JBJ has been the talk of the town lately, triple-slashing .472/.509/.906 with 5 home runs and a .590 wOBA over the past two weeks. You don’t need me to tell how ridiculously good that is. Still, I’m not about to start buying in to Bradley.
Night in and night out, the Red Sox have been in great matchups, and that context has surely played a bit role in Bradley’s hot streak. And while Bradley is showing some power this year, much of his success has been driven by a .400 BABIP, which is completely unsustainable. Consider the park that he plays in: Fenway is the second best park in all of baseball for left-hander BABIP, behind only Coors Field. Not only that, but the difference between Fenway and the third-best park is 2.3 times bigger than the difference between Coors and Fenway—i.e. Fenway is nearly Coors-level good in terms of lefty BABIP. Of course, Bradley will continue to play half of his game in that environment, but this is important context to recognize, especially when Bradley goes on the road.
As a prospect, Bradley was always considered more of a glove-first-bat-second type of guy, and he’s just 7 months of play removed from an absolutely abysmal 2014 season in which he posted an abysmal .243 wOBA in 423 plate appearances with the Sox (and was somehow even worse at Triple-A). Bradley has certainly improved since then, but buying into him as a stud is a bad probability play at this point. On days like Saturday when a guy like Dustin Pedroia gets the day off and JBJ moves up in the order he’ll be a fine option, but as long as he’s hitting in the bottom third of the order and costing $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, I want no part of him in cash games.
FALLING… BUT STILL OVERPRICED
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
While Felix had his first good start in quite a while today against the Angels (I mean, he was in a great park against a bad offense with a great umpire), I’m not overly optimistic about him going forward. He’s still priced like an ace—$11,300 on DraftKings, $10,300 on FanDuel—but he’s not an ace anymore. Felix used to throw in the mid-90s, but he’s down to just 90-mph this year (two ticks off even just last year). His secondary pitches are still there, but he hasn’t learned how to make do with the lessened velocity yet and pitch, as his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate both continue to plummet (6.8 K/9 and 8.7% SwStk%, respectively).
Making matters worse is that his control has eluded him this year. He’s falling behind on hitters a bit more, he’s not finding the zone as often, and he’s walking guys. And working with lesser catchers (Chris Iannetta and Steve Clevenger) this year certainly isn’t helping anything.
For now, we have to treat Felix as an above-average pitcher but nothing more. I’m hoping Sunday is the start of a turnaround for him, but you won’t find me paying five digits for him unless the matchup is elite. Next week he gets the Reds in the National League, so if the price comes down and the weather is right (Great American can be a nightmare when it isn’t) I can see maybe being tempted.