Risers and Fallers: Volume 7
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
RISING… BUT STILL UNDERPRICED
Adam Duvall, OF, Cincinnati Reds
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of cheap power. I’ve long been a fan of Duvall, having drafted him in both Tout Wars and LABR, and now that he’s a regular in Cincinnati and has moved up to the fifth spot in the order, my crush has only gotten bigger. I did a drive-by down his street a couple (okay, six) times last night and slipped an anonymous note into his locker, but I’m finally ready to declare my love for Adam Duvall in front of the whole school DFS community. He’s mashed in the minors for years (as well as during his brief cups of coffee in the majors), and finally he’s getting the chance he deserves to show he’s a quality major league regular.
The power is legit, evidence in part by his 37% hard hit rate, but he’s also very efficient in terms of generating that power. Whereas most hitters hit a lot of their flyballs the opposite way, where they don’t have much of a chance to go out and are usually caught as lazy flies, Duvall has pulled his flies nearly 50% more often than the average right-handed hitter, which is just what you want from a guy with his power. He strikes out a lot and doesn’t draw many walks, so the lack of plate discipline could eventually catch up to him, but this a guy you need to ride for at least the time being. (Ride, giggle)
Alex Wood, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wood was one of my earliest crushes this year, and despite absolutely dominating of late, we still see people shocked by it and wary of him. This is a guy who has a history of being good. This is a guy who has quality stuff. This is a guy who has above average control. This is a guy who has altered his mechanics and release point over the winter to the point that he now more closely resembles the version of himself that was so good for Atlanta in 2014. And now so do his numbers: 9.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.23 xFIP.
I’ve talked about him in this space before, but I have to bring him up again because, as predicted, he’s turned it around after a rough first few starts. His price has risen at times, but on Monday he’ll cost just $7,200 on DraftKings, where he has the most appeal as an SP2. Granted, it’s against the Cubs, and I won’t be playing him because we have good hitting weather in Wrigley, but if he gets rocked then he might be a little cheaper at home against the Braves next weekend, where he’ll pretty much be a must play regardless of the price.
Jurickson Profar, 2B/SS, Texas Rangers
With Rougned Odor serving his suspension, the Rangers have turned to Jurickson Profar as their leadoff hitter. Odor returns on Saturday and should regain his spot atop the order, but until then I’m a big fan of Profar. Profar was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, but his career has been derailed by injuries and a lack of opportunity at the big league level with Elvis Andrus entrenched at short and Odor exceeding expectations and becoming a very good regular keystoner for Texas. There is still plenty of talent here, though. Profar has solid plate discipline, can hit for some contact with a bit of power and a bit of speed. He’s not going to blow you away with any one skill, but he’ll have a chance to contribute across the board while leading off for a good offense and qualifying at two shallow positions.
He’ll get to face a couple of weak pitchers in Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer before Odor returns, and if he happens to hit well this week and get a start next weekend, maybe at shortstop, once Odor comes back, he’d have some nice steal upside against Nate Karns on Saturday.
RISING… AND NOW OVERPRICED
Jonathan Villar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Villar has been one of the most popular cash game plays of late, and for good reason. He’s been a reasonably priced leadoff shortstop in some really good matchups. Don’t take the label above his name to mean that I don’t love me some Villar; I played him on Opening Day before most realized he was a thing. But we have to be honest about who he is. He’s a below-average, maybe average, hitter with great speed. His .410 BABIP is completely unsustainable, even for someone as fast as he is. The added walks this year are nice and will make him above average if they stick, but we can’t assume 100% that they will.
All this isn’t to besmirch Villar in any way—for what he is, he’s fantastic—but it’s to draw attention to the absurdity of a $4,900 DraftKings price tag on Monday against a solid, if struggling, pitcher in Carlos Martinez. He had the same price on Saturday. That’s just too much for Villar. He strikes out at an above average rate and doesn’t have much power, yet he’s going to run the same as Manny Machado, Carlos Correa when he wasn’t cold, and Trevor Story in certain Coors matchups. When he’s in the high-$3,000’s or low-$4,000s in a good stolen base matchups, he’s great. When he’s almost $5,000, in practically any matchup, you simply have to pass. Hopefully we’ll see Villar’s ownership levels drop this week and his price point return to normalcy.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco is in a similar boat as Villar. He’s been getting a lot of play lately, and the price has skyrocketed to $4,200 on FanDuel and has been hovering just under $5,000 on DraftKings. Unlike Villar, I don’t think I’ve played him once and don’t really plan on it. His .395 wOBA is largely BABIP driven, given an unsustainable .358 BABIP, which is well above the .308 and .272 marks he posted the past couple years. He’s shown more power, which is great and more believable than the BABIP, but priced as a top 10 or 15 outfielder most days is ridiculous. He’s above average. There is certainly upside, and the possibility certainly exists that what he’s doing is more real than we can say it is statistically. He was an elite prospect coming up through the minors and still has that pedigree and those tools, but it’s insane to buy into them as much as most people are.
It seems like perhaps people are deluding themselves based on certain misunderstood statistics. Polanco has an excellent 28% line drive rate, and his hard hit rate is up five points to 35% this year. The line drives explain the high BABIP, since they fall in for hits at over a 70% rate, but they’re not actually a very stable skill. It takes close to two years’ worth of contact balls for them to “stabilize,” whereas balls like grounders or flies take a fraction of a single season. If you’re believing the BABIP based on the line drives, you’re making a mistake. And hard hit rate, while more stable, still has variance, and Polanco’s is only a bit above average anyway—which he is. But it’s not great. And he’s not great.
Especially when he’s at home in pitcher-friendly PNC Park in a less-than-ideal stolen base matchup, you simply can’t pay the same price for Polanco as you would for Ryan Braun or Andrew McCutchen. This week he’ll go to Miami to Jose Fernandez and a bunch of lefties, then go home to PNC to face the Angels. Anyone playing him should be considered dead money.
RISING… AND FAIRLY PRICED
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, New York Yankees
I’ve never been a big fan of Eovaldi. He throws harder than almost any other major league starter, but I’ve always thought his fastball was flat and that he lacked good enough command and a quality third pitch to miss bats. He added a splitter a year ago in an attempt to address the latter issue, which caused his K/9 to rise from 6.4 to 7.1, and it’s risen again to 8.2 this year. The splitter looks better to me this year with a bit more depth, and also has a career high 9% swinging strike rate. The splitter has really been what’s allowed Eovaldi to turn things around, as his groundball rate spiked to 52% last year and has remained at a near-elite level (55%) this season. The splitter generates 68% groundballs, and Eovaldi has worked down in the zone more the past couple years, validating this new tendency. All of this has culminated in a 3.37 xFIP this year.
Eovaldi easily looks like an above-average pitcher to me right now, maybe a borderline good one, and he turned in another gem on Sunday against the Rays. At $9,800 on DraftKings, he makes for a fine SP2 in good matchups. He’s not quite talented enough to be a common choice on FanDuel, but at $8,100 he’s a great GPP choice. In Baltimore this week he’ll have plenty of strikeout upside, and after that he’ll get to face the Angels, so be sure to keep Eovaldi on your radar.
ABOUT TO START RISING… AND UNDERPRICED
Devon Travis, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have been struggling all year to find a consistent leadoff hitter, but they may now have their man. Devon Travis had a breakout rookie campaign last year before his year was cut short by a shoulder injury that required surgery and kept him on the DL until this past week. Jays manager John Gibbons insinuated that it won’t be long before Travis moves up to the leadoff spot, and it couldn’t be more perfectly timed with the Jays finally starting to find their groove. Travis is a guy like Profar that doesn’t really excel at any one thing, but he has solid plate discipline, a good contact stroke, some gap-to-gap power (with a little potential for more), and a hint of speed.
The real draw, though, isn’t in any fancy metrics or scouting jargon; it’s in hitting leadoff for a team that has the best two-through-five hitters in baseball. Travis’s price has been falling, down to $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel on Sunday. We don’t know exactly when he’ll lead off his first game, but sometime this week seems like a good bet. He’ll be a great bargain whenever that happens to be, as the Jays will face some weak pitchers (Ivan Nova, Steven Wright) and a bunch of lefties (C.C. Sabathia, David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez) this week, with the Sox games happening in contact-friendly Fenway Park.