Week 1, In Which People Hate The GOAT
He’s still the best.
The absolute best.
I don’t care what you say. I don’t care what nobody says. We’re gonna have a baby.
Wait. Sorry. Let me try that again…
I don’t care what anyone says. You disagree with me? You’re wrong. Plain as that.
And look, I’m not friends with the guy. I don’t even know the guy. We follow each other on Twitter, and if I properly recall, he trolled my DFS username during his speech last year at the DFS Players Conference in New York.
Which, as a side note: Really? JMToWin? Let’s all just be willing to call a spade a spade here: that’s a pretty great DFS name. (Though – as is typical in these articles – I digress…)
Where were we?
Oh – right. Matthew Berry. The absolute best.
The GOAT.
I don’t care what nobody says. I would totally have his baby.
What Is Football, Anyway?
There are numerous, correct answers to that question. But the “most correct” answer goes something like this:
Football is a game in which grown men are paid millions of dollars to wear tight pants and chase each other around a rectangular grassy area, with the action centered around an oblong ball. Other grown men – and a handful of women – watch, and cheer for, these large-men-in-tight-pants as a form of entertainment.
You see? We’re not solving world hunger here. We’re not providing clean drinking water to impoverished countries. We’re not saving all the world’s unloved kittens from the Euthanation Station. We are simply being entertained. It might feel like more than that at times, but it’s not. Football is honestly quite low on the scale of “important things in life.” Think about it – really: if you happen to be fortunate enough (a hundred years from now, of course…) to have an opportunity to reflect back on your life for a few, quiet hours before you die, you are more likely to wish you had spent less time thinking about, caring about, and worrying about football than you are to find yourself thinking, “Man, I didn’t make the most of life! – I wish I had spent more time keeping up with NFL practice reports.”
Entertainment. Nothing more.
And you know what? There is one fantasy sports writer who is more entertaining than any other. It’s not even close.
Oh – sorry. I just now spotted your hand raised – there in the back of the room. You had a question?
“Yeah, a question. Or a comment. Or…I don’t know. It’s just…forget entertainment for a second. I can give you that, no problem, but can’t we admit that there other fantasy football writers who share more valuable information?”
Absolutely! Frankly, that list is quite long. I don’t even think it’s Matthew Berry’s fault, either. I mean, let’s be real – the guy has to do podcasts, write articles, appear on television, make celebrity (“celebrity”) appearances, and who knows what else. The man is a writer, for goodness sake. He’s not a former scout or coach; he’s not an elite NFL strategist or pundit; I don’t even know if the guy ever played a down of football himself.
But I do know that he is a damn good writer. He’s engaging; he’s funny; he’s entertaining. People look forward to reading his article each week – and not because they just can’t hardly wait to find out who he “loves” and “hates” this week. They look forward to the article because it’s enjoyable to read.
“Right, but – you called him the absolute best. Shouldn’t those who give the absolute best insight be labeled the absolute best?”
That’s fair, too. But here’s why I say that man is the best:
You like fantasy football, right? (You must! – otherwise, you’re sure a glutton for punishment, slogging through my overlong article just for the heck of it.)
Well, if you like fantasy football, you should love Matthew Berry. Even if you don’t like his advice, or somehow don’t care for his writing, you should love him, because without Matthew Berry, fantasy football would never have exploded to the extent that it has. He helped turn fantasy football into a week-long event; he grew the pool of participants in a greater way than anyone else has; and he kept those participants engaged until they became entrenched members of this now-massive collection of society that is unembarrassed to talk openly about their “fantasy football” team.
Fantasy football? Just think about how dumb that sounds. “My fantasy team is awesome!” Um, yeah – maybe you need to get outside a bit more…
But that’s not the reaction we, as a society, have to the words “my fantasy team.” Instead, we jump right in and join the discussion.
I thank Matthew Berry. The GOAT.
Love, HateHateHateHateHate, Etc.
It took me 6 minutes to scroll all the way down to the bottom so that I could comment. Dude just typed The Illiad and The Odyssey of fantasy advice. Anyway I’m def a Berry hater not going to sugar coat it. His week to week fantasy advice is garbage.
I skipped the first 800 column inches about Matthew Berry. Since what Matthew Berry loves best is anything about Matthew Berry. That way I could arrive faster to his love/hates- so I can start laughing, and moving the complete opposite direction.
Thanks for giving me a quick list of your “love players” that will now be overdrafted by novice fantasy owners who feel like they can read a few Mathew Berry articles before the draft and outsmart everyone..
Those are just a few of the top comments on Berry’s preseason Love/Hate.
Of course, let’s throw out the fact that it’s just plain comical/crazy/downrightunbelievable these days that there are people who care enough about their season-long leagues to labor over every little decision, and then brag about “winning” their league against 11 friends who also know nothing. (I mean…have you guys not even tried daily fantasy yet? Because it is, you know, quite a bit more awesome than season-long.) Let’s also throw out the fact that all these people still click on his articles every week in order to…what? – skip most of it and post a negative comment? Let’s even throw out the fact that anyone expecting to get the best possible fantasy advice from a free, picks-driven article is pretty far off base. And let’s instead talk about the fact that the Comments section on Berry’s articles almost always looks like that.
Every.
Single.
Week.
Which, By The Way, Brings Us Meandering To…
So far, people still like me.
Not that there is any real reason for people to dislike me. I’m a friendly guy, after all. I’m pretty non-opinionated; I’m accommodating. I try my hardest to make others feel important and accepted. If you’ve met me in person – in New York, in Boston, in the Bahamas, in Nashville, in Toronto, or in some other place – or if you and I have engaged with one another on Twitter or in the forums, you can hopefully attest to that. If you didn’t like me, let me know. But I’m pretty inoffensive. Quite frankly, I’d say it’s pretty difficult to hate me.
But it will happen. Just watch. I’ve had a few tastes of it already (primarily during football season, when readership spikes from those who are not typically involved in the DFS community; Look, this guy is popular! – that’s it, I hate him!), but I know the hate will only increase over time. That’s just the way these things go.
I won’t be any different. I’ll still be me, and I’ll still be doing my best to be a great #DFSAmbassador. I’ll still be making every effort I can to make others around me feel important.
But, hey – it happens.
Heck, it happens to the absolute best. Sometimes, people simply hate.
And you know what? The same thing happens in daily fantasy football.
Look at this list, and tell me if you think these players will go overlooked by anyone this weekend:
Derek Carr
Dak Prescott
Spencer Ware
Amari Cooper
Marvin Jones
If that list looks familiar, well…it should. That list provides a peek behind the door labeled “Week 1 Must Plays.”
As we should all know by now, however, there is almost never such a thing as a true “must play.”
As we should all know by now, Part II: Oftentimes, the best way to win DFS tournaments is to find the players everyone is “hating” for absolutely no reason at all. Any time we can uncover the plays people are too scared to play, or are just plain overlooking, this provides an awesome opportunity for us to take the same upside everyone else is rostering, at far lower ownership.
While it would be easy for me to simply run through a list of obvious, chalk plays in this article, we are going to take a different approach this week – instead examining three players at each position others are either “hating on” or just plain overlooking…and that I believe there is a good chance will be difference-makers this week for those who zig where the rest of the tournament field is zagging.
Quarterbacks
A quick note on quarterbacks: Because we are allowed to roster only one quarterback on most sites, ownership tends to never get too out of hand. As such, you should always feel comfortable rostering the guy you like the most, without worrying a ton about ownership. With that said: those rare instances when you are able to capture a monster game at low ownership – such as the first few big Cam Newton games last year, or the first few big Russell Wilson games, or Eli Manning and Drew Brees the weekend they shot out in New Orleans – can make a huge difference in your standing in a tourney.
Andrew Luck v Lions – $8,300 DK / $8,700 FD
Look, I know. You prefer to take the cheaper quarterback in the shootout. It makes perfect sense – and anyway, all we keep hearing about is the walking MASH unit in the Colts’ secondary, and how there are all these great values available on the other side of the ball. But I’ll let you in on a secret: there aren’t a lot of “shootouts” in the NFL in which one team scores all the points (because that would, you know, not be a “shootout” at all). As everyone labels this game a “shootout” and talks up Stafford, no one is paying attention to Luck. On top of that, he had some “limited” practices this week that are sure to scare away potential owners. I’m not saying the following is going to happen, but what if each team puts up more than 30 points in this game…but Stafford accounts for only three of his team’s touchdowns while Luck accounts for all five of his team’s scores? Luck should be a high-floor play this week – thoroughly unlikely to hurt your team – and he has an outside shot at an explosive week…the kind that could win you a tournament all on its own.
Blake Bortles v Packers – $7,200 DK / $8,400 FD
There has been a lot of preseason preaching this year telling you to be careful with Bortles. “Practically all his touchdowns last year came late in games, with the Jaguars trailing.” True. “The Jaguars’ defense is improved this year.” True. But also true is the fact that the Packers are coming to town. Do you really think this is going to be the game in which Gus Bradley’s unit suddenly turns the corner and starts really slowing down opponents?
Also, I don’t want to be the one who tells you to look if you don’t want to look, but…look at the Jags’ run defense last year. They ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, while finishing 21st in yards per passing attempt and 29th in total passing yards allowed. This secondary is going to begin to improve, but they’re still a ways away from being “there.” I expect the Packers to put up points in this one, and I expect Bortles to do what he did last year: rack up fantasy points when the game matters the least.
Tyrod Taylor at Ravens – $6,900 DK / $7,200 FD
Whatever. I’ll be the only “sharp” not rostering Dak this weekend, and I don’t even care. I (stupidly) have the Giants ranked as my top point-per-dollar defense this weekend in our Consensus Value Rankings, mostly because I’m so sick of the Dak love. (Though honestly, the Giants’ D ain’t a bad play. When else do you get to take a team with a solid pass rush and an underrated, vastly-improved secondary…against a fourth-round rookie quarterback in his first career game?)
But enough about Dak. How about TyGod? I know Baltimore dealt with an unholy number of injuries last year, but they’re still vastly lacking in the whole “talent” department on the back end of their defense after finishing 25th in pass defense DVOA last year. What’s more, they are a classic “funnel” defense – holding up well against the run while getting torched by the pass. Oh – did I mention that the Ravens, under Marc Trestman last year, piled up the eighth-most passing attempts in NFL history? This game could quickly become higher-scoring than most expect, and TyGod will have to throw (and run) in order to keep up. He has more upside than Dak, as well as a higher floor – and on a week with so much value available, it’s not too difficult to make salary space for “last year’s Dak” while everyone else takes the plunge down in Dallas.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy v Ravens – $6,400 DK / $6,900 FD
Okay, so I talked about the Ravens having a solid run defense. I know. But listen: you know who’s going to compete with LeSean McCoy for receptions this year?
“It’s Reggie Bush, right?”
Uh. Yeah. My point exactly.
As much as the Bills want to pretend that they are going to divide up work in the backfield, I expect Shady to be Options 1A, 1B, and 1C to start the season. In Greg Roman’s creative rushing attack, and with the help of TyGod opening lanes for him, I could see Shady piling up a workmanlike 90 to 110 yards on the ground in this one, with four or five targets thrown in. That right there gives you a pretty good game – and if we get a touchdown on top of that, you’re soaring past the field that has no interest in rostering “the man” in the Buffalo backfield.
Ryan Mathews v Browns – $5,700 DK / $6,100 FD
I have been excited for “Mathews in Week 1” for about a month. Why?
1) Widespread biases against Mathews from season-long players lead to very few people ever being willing to roster him. “He always gets hurt!” Sure – so don’t draft him in your league. But still start him in DFS when he’s healthy.
2) The Browns ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and 27th in yards per carry allowed last season. This is largely the same defense as last year, which creates an awesome matchup for Mathews.
3) Not only is Doug Pederson a “ground and pound” coach at heart, but he also just so happens to be starting a raw rookie in this game. This week, in my NFL Edge (which, in case you don’t know, is the article that takes me about 30 hours to write each week – in which I break down every single game from top to bottom; if you’re not a Premium subscriber, you can test-drive Premium for a week to check out that article and everything else we have in there!), I said that it would not at all surprise me if the Week 1 matchup (at home against the Browns) played heavily into Pederson’s decision to run Carson Wentz out there right away, as this is a perfect spot for the kid to build confidence by throwing the ball 25 times, handing the ball off a bunch, and grinding out a win.
Christine Michael v Dolphins – $3,700 DK / $4,800 FD
He’s all yours.
Okay. Maybe he’s all mine, too. Maybe I’ll go cheap/cheap at running back. But I like Michael even more than I like Ware – especially in tourneys.
While everyone has latched onto this idea of Jamaal Charles being out, or – at best – limited, and of Ware collecting all the carries, relatively few people have made the swap over to Michael.
I very much hope the Seahawks continue these efforts to mislead both the Dolphins and the public by making it seem like Thomas Rawls is going to be even a partial-go for Week 1. I’ll be shocked if Rawls sees more than 20 snaps in this game (heck, I’ll be shocked if he sees even that many) – which basically makes Rawls the equivalent of a “change of pace” back, and Michael the bulk-of-the-work starter. I think it is far likelier that Charcandrick West eats into Ware’s work (and that Ware remains under 20 carries – which, by the way, would represent a career high, in spite of the fact that Charles was out for nearly all of last year) than it is that Michael sees a limited workload. To put that another way: I expect Michael to receive more carries than Ware. In an equally good matchup. At a lower price. And at drastically lower ownership.
Wide Receivers
Sammy Watkins v Ravens – $6,900 DK / $7,300 FD
Oh, look! Another player on the Bills.
I swear, that was unintentional.
I also swear I do not envision this turning into a RoethlisbergerAntonioBell situation, where you could roster all three and dominate a tournament. I like TyGod by himself, or with Watkins. Or I like LeSean without the other two. Considering I am almost always a one-lineup guy, I am likelier to roster Watkins than I am to roster McCoy, but there should be low ownership on each guy, and each guy has a pretty clear path to a nice output. Watkins, in particular, has the ability to post a monster game, given the weakness of the Ravens’ secondary and the Bills’ tendency to take some shots downfield. Even with everyone knowing the Ravens’ secondary is weak, no one seems to be talking about Watkins. He has tourney-winning upside in a spot such as this.
Eric Decker v Bengals – $6,600 DK / $6,900 FD
Darqueze Dennard. That’s who mans the slot for the Bengals now that Leon Hall is gone to the Giants (hashtag: the Giants’ secondary will be a lot better than people are expecting this year)…and that’s who Decker will match up with most of this game. Honestly, the matchup on the outside for Brandon Marshall – against Dre Kirkpatrick – is pretty sweet as well. With how narrow the target distribution is on the Jets, and with how talented each of these two guys are, and with how low ownership is sure to be on them, I’ll probably end up with one of them on at least one of my rosters. (Actually: I could say, “I already did end up with one of them on at least one of my rosters,” as Decker – as well as Watkins, for that matter…and Christine Michael – is already locked into my Thursday-lock lineup on FanDuel. So I guess I ought to instead say, “I’ll probably end up with one of them on one of my Sunday rosters – either on DraftKings or on FanDuel, in cash games or in tournaments.)
Lock Decker in for a touchdown and move on with the rest of your roster.
Willie Snead v Raiders – $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD
Here is another spot where the “shootout” is likely to draw lower ownership in a few spots than it will in others. While Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are going to be Chalk City this weekend, the uncertain target distribution on the Saints should lead to lower ownership on this side of the ball. And I get that! I definitely do. Honestly, I probably won’t roster any Saints receivers myself. But while most people will “take a chance” on Brandin Cooks if they stray to this side of the ball, I’ll be looking to Snead if my Roster Construction Travels carry me to New Orleans. Although Snead is not nearly the athlete that Cooks is, he is a polished receiver who can win over the middle, and who can post a monster game from time to time. If you guess right on Snead this week, you’ll be hanging out with very few others in terms of ownership, and you’ll be in excellent shape to soar up the leaderboards.
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron v Colts – $3,900 DK / $5,100
Practice, shmactice.
Okay – not really. Ebron needs all the help he can get – including (though certainly not limited to) practice. But this is sort of a “breakout or bust” year for Ebron, and with Jim Bob Cooter calling the plays, and with the depleted Colts manning the field on the other side, I would not at all be surprised to see Ebron post four or five catches, 40 or 50 yards, and a touchdown.
That’s all I have to say here, so let me add this:
In one of his preseason articles, Matthew Berry used the term “magic Cooter dust.” And you want to tell me he’s not still the best?
Martellus Bennett v Cardinals – $3,400 DK / $5,100
Editor’s Note: Rob Gronkowski has been ruled OUT for Week 1.
“Hahahahahahahaha!”
No, really. I promise. Just watch.
Tyrann Mathieu. Patrick Peterson. That’s who the Cardinals can deploy against Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. (Remember: Edelman does not play in the slot nearly as much as he used to – especially with the Patriots expected to run plenty of two-tight-end sets – which means Peterson can follow him around on the outside; that could easily lead to Mathieu manning up on Gronk for much of the game.) And who does that leave covering Martellus?
No one!
Well, not actually no one – but it may as well be no one.
James Bettcher’s blitz-heavy scheme often leaves the tight end open – and you can be pretty darn certain that the Cardinals will also have a plan to ensure Gronk is not “left open,” making this a great spot for Martellus to begin his Patriots career with a splash.
On a side note: how long until we can get Bettcher a bit more publicity? His name isn’t as great as Cooter’s for dumb jokes, but you can Bettcher bottom dollar we could come up with some good ones.
Clive Walford v Saints – $3,000 DK / $4,700
“Wait and see.”
We hear this a lot in regards to players, and fantasy. (Again: how strange is this world in which we live – that I can say, “We see this a lot in regards to fantasy,” and that’s not considered a weirdo statement?) But while “wait and see” certainly makes sense in season-long – where the goal is to make the playoffs, and then move forward with the best possible team – “wait and see” makes less sense in DFS. In DFS – instead of aiming to “wait and see” – we should attempt to be the ones who cause others to say, “Wow – why didn’t I jump onto that play before anyone else?”
The Saints are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the [fill-in-the-blank – tight end included], and Walford is likely to see five or six targets in this one as the pass-catching tight end. Because we do not yet fully know what to expect from Walford, it is certainly tempting to want to “wait and see” – but we may see a monster game that you will wish you had rostered yourself.
In Closing…
I love to type words.
I hope you don’t hate me for that.
Do you want to hang out this weekend? I’m friendly and inoffensive – and if you do hate me, maybe you’ll change your mind after we spend some time together.
If you want to hang out, you can find me at the top of the leaderboards. You should join me (the view up there is great!). We’ll chill together for a day or two – then we can come right back next week and start all over again.