Week 1 NFL Preview: DraftKings Pricing Thoughts
Hello again, Grinders! DraftKings has released their Week 1 NFL contests, so it is time to take a quick look at some of the options available on the site. I have already written one of these columns for FanDuel, which you can find here. There will be some overlap between the two articles, as some players are simply under-priced on both sites. Of course, there will be some notable differences as well.
Keep in mind, this is being written as the preseason has not even started yet. Obviously, things will change as we get closer to the opening week of the season. Injuries will open up doors for backups. Some players will surprise in camp and in the preseason games. Depth charts will remain fluid. Given that the pricing has already been released, this will inevitably lead to some value plays. Surprisingly, though, it hasn’t been as bad as you would think over the past couple of seasons. The first reaction is to think that by the time Week 1 rolls around, everyone will have the same lineups. That is not necessarily the case at all.
QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers – $8,500 – In case you have been living under a rock for the last few years, this Rodgers guy is pretty good. Jacksonville has quietly amassed an elite rush defense, but they struggled against the pass a year ago, ranking 29th in the league in pass defense. Some offseason moves have been made in an attempt to bolster the defense, and Myles Jack is a great all-around defender, but don’t expect them to slow down Rodgers in the season opener. The DraftKings salary cap is soft enough where you can spend at the QB spot.
Drew Brees – $8,100 – The hype train is starting to roll for Drew Brees, who obviously has plenty of upside in the New Orleans offense. Another year of experience for Brandin Cooks should help, and the addition of Coby Fleener was quietly one of the better moves of the NFL offseason. Brees loves to use his tight ends, especially in the red zone. He is always a fine option at home, and that should be the case against a mediocre Oakland defense.
Blake Bortles – $7,200 – DraftKings is rolling out a $3 Millionaire Maker for the opening week, in which you have to beat almost 2,000,000 people to win a million dollars. It’s also a very top-heavy GPP. If you want to win this, you increase your odds by being a little contrarian in spots. For this reason, I have my eye on Bortles. He is an underrated quarterback that should have a fine season with some talented receivers at his disposal. Throw in a matchup where the Jaguars should be coming from behind, and he should be chucking it plenty of times in this one.
Jimmy Garoppolo – $6,900 – I am absolutely stunned that he is basically the cheapest starting quarterback on the board.. Garoppolo has been getting a lot of fanfare as a viable fantasy option for the four weeks that Tom Brady is suspended, yet neither DraftKings or FanDuel bumped his price up accordingly. With the most explosive tight end in the league, a reliable top wideout, and good pass-catching running backs, Garoppolo should definitely be able to pay off this bargain basement price in the opener.
RUNNING BACKS
Jamaal Charles – $7,100 – He has largely flown under the radar in fantasy discussions heading into the season, as everyone seems to be talking about the suspension of Le’Veon Bell, the threat of a split workload in Arizona, or the rising stock of rookie Ezekiel Elliott. Meanwhile, we still have Jamaal Charles, arguably the best all-around back in the league when he is healthy. The “when healthy” part is certainly a key, as Charles is already banged up before the preseason even starts. His pass catching ability gives him a boost on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring, and he should be a fine option as long as he gets healthy before the first game.
Lamar Miller – $7,000 – Lamar Miller has always been a fine producer on a per-touch basis, but he never got the chance to be a bell cow running back in Miami. That should change in Houston, where Miller is clearly atop the running back depth chart for a team that loves to run the football. The Bears ranked in the bottom third of the league in rush defense last season, and I expect Houston to control the game flow in this one. Miller isn’t sexy, but he should be a viable option in all formats.
Thomas Rawls – $6,000 – The backfield is his in Seattle with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, and we saw what he is capable of at various points last season. He’s a fine mid-range play at a very reasonable $6,000 salary tag against the Dolphins.
Rashad Jennings – $5,400 – Like Miller, there has never been doubt about Jennings’ ability to produce. There has always been doubt about his workload. It was hard for Jennings to cement his value while losing passing down work to Shane Vereen and goal line work to Andre Williams. It looks like the Giants are ready to shed that plan, as the reports out of camp indicate that Jennings is the clear top dog right now. If that holds up heading into the opener, here’s your no-brainer value play for a RB2.
Keep an eye on depth charts as the preseason goes along, as the salary minimum on DraftKings is much lower than the floor on FanDuel. When you can get a viable player for less than $4,500 (sometimes even at $3,000 or $3,500), it is definitely a choice that can be worthwhile. Guys that could end up fitting into this mold if they get the opportunity include Javorius Allen, Tevin Coleman, Derrick Henry, Chris Johnson, James White, as well as a host of others that could gain value with preseason injuries.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The top guys are all fine options, and you can fit them in your lineup quite easily if you go cheap with a running back pick or two. I like Odell Beckham the most at $9,300, but there’s nothing wrong with similarly priced options like Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins.
A.J. Green – $8,400 – Here is one of my favorite GPP plays of the first week. Darrelle Revis is nowhere near the cover corner that he used to be, but fantasy players still avoid wide receivers against him like the plague. Green is a target monster and is generally safe regardless of the matchup, yet you will get him at a fraction of the ownership of other elite players.
Randall Cobb – $7,600 – I am not convinced that Jordy Nelson is going to be anything close to 100% by the start of the season. He has already had a minor setback and he hasn’t played an NFL down in a full season. Randall Cobb is still the daily fantasy player you want, at least over the first few weeks. He is a fine pairing with Aaron Rodgers if you are looking for a QB/WR stack in a GPP, and of course you can play Cobb by himself if you wish.
Eric Decker – $6,600 – All the guy does is produce. Lock him in for his seven catches and 90 yards week in and week out. He’s a fine cash game option due to his high floor and secure role in the Jets offense. The $6,600 price tag is very reasonable, too.
Mohamed Sanu – $5,100 – He has always been an inconsistent fantasy option, and that will likely continue in Atlanta. Instead of being the clear #2 to A.J. Green, he is now the clear #2 to Julio Jones. However, there are plenty of Matt Ryan targets to go around, and Sanu is incredibly cheap at $5,100. Tampa Bay has an average defense, and Sanu might have the opportunity to see extra targets if they roll extra coverage toward Jones.
Sterling Shepard – $4,900 – The rave reports continue to come out of Giants camp for one of the most accomplished college wide receivers of the last decade. It is clear that he is going to have a big role in the Giants offense, and the playing time should not be a concern right out of the gate — especially since the Giants use a lot of 3-WR and 4-WR sets. The Giants/Cowboys game could easily become a sneaky opening week shootout, and Shepard is a fine WR #3 or flex play on DraftKings at a sub-$5,000 price point.
TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski – $7,400 – He’s really, really good, but he’s really, really expensive. We don’t know what the drop off will be from Brady to Garoppolo. This sets up as a massive risk/reward play that I will like in GPPs if Gronk is low-owned, but I will probably play the fade if the chatter around the industry has him at a high ownership projection.
Jason Witten – $4,100 – Witten never really had much for wheels, and now he is running on old man legs. Despite his aging status, he is still a prime target for Tony Romo. He also gets to open the season against the Giants, who struggled mightily against tight ends last season. In their two meetings last year, Witten put up 8/60/2 and 6/73. Those are definitely numbers you will take from a tight end that is priced at an affordable $4,100 for the season opener.
DEFENSES
We are out of luck for some of the elite defenses if we play the weekend slate, as Denver and Carolina play on Thursday night and Arizona has to face New England.
Seattle – $3,900 – They are the most expensive defense, but they are playing at home, where they always tend to excel. Miami has a talented offense, but Ryan Tannehill is always prone to the occasional mistake, and this is simply a tough matchup for them to start the year. I don’t put much stock into the “east coast team traveling west” narrative on the first week of the season, but that doesn’t help either.
Houston – $3,200 – Jay Cutler is a turnover machine playing on the road against J.J. Watt (if healthy) and an underrated Houston defense. Enough said.
Cleveland – $2,300 – A lot of daily players opt for the “punt at defense” theory on DraftKings, so I present the Browns. Are they a good unit? Of course not. But, it is rare that you see a defense this cheap when they get to face Sam Bradford or whoever the Eagles decide to throw out there. Philadelphia is in a bit of disarray heading into the season, and a lot of the defensive scoring relies on the random touchdown. There are worse ways to save money in Week One, and this really helps open up your cap space.