Week 7, In Which I Am Late For Dinner
Call me anything you want – just don’t call me late to dinner.
Actually, go ahead and call me late to dinner. I usually forget to eat anyway.
This has been a weird week for me. As some of you probably know already, I finished 12th in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker last week, but that’s in the rearview mirror and has zero impact on anything moving forward. What many of you may not know (and what does have an impact on things moving forward) is that I also won the King of the Hill Qualifier this last week.
What is the King of the Hill? You probably don’t know, because DraftKings did not bother to push or promote that contest at all. But basically, by winning the Qualifier last week, I became the “Challenger,” and am taking on the reigning “King” in a head-to-head for $25k. Loser goes home; winner grabs that $25k and remains the “King” to face the next Challenger.
Only…
I found out yesterday that DraftKings has canceled the King of the Hill moving forward (because “there wasn’t enough interest in it” – uhhh, you think?). In one sense, that sucks, as it removes the chance of a multi-week run. In another sense, it’s not so bad at all, as the winner this week will not only win the $25k, but will also win the value of the King of the Hill ticket – an additional $28k. So there you have it: one week, head-to-head, zero dollars on the line…and $53k up for grabs.
As you can imagine, this has been one of the longest weeks of my DFS career. The hours are dragging by slowly, and it is made even worse by the fact that my team is pretty much set already, and there is very little for me to do at this point but challenge every single thing I am thinking this week and see if I can find an even better team than the one I am sitting on at present.
My constant revisitings of my “current team,” however, have set me back in schedule.
I got my Wednesday NFL Edge article into RotoGrinders later than I wanted to.
I am getting my Thursday NFL Feature (this article you are reading right now) into RotoGrinders later than I wanted to.
Heck, I’m also supposed to be wrapping up my main NBA course for RotoAcademy. You know – NBA, that sport that begins next Tuesday? It probably would have been smart to have my RotoAcademy course up early, huh? – maybe capture that initial wave of interest in the courses available for purchase? Now, I’ll be stuck with no one knowing my course is even there.
Forget about “calling me late to dinner” – go ahead and call me just plain late. That’s what I am.
Rather than telling you a story this week or providing an illustration that proves some sort of point, I’m going to be a bit less dynamic in this Week 7 article and a bit more “meat and potatoes.” (What’s with the dinner theme, here? Sheesh!) I am going to touch on three strategy elements that seem to come up a lot – in people asking me for thoughts and opinions – and I am going to tell you what I think.
I am also going to tell you that I might be wrong. Not wrong for me, but wrong for you. After all, I take a very unique approach to NFL DFS – an approach most other writers and/or “well-known players” do not take. I take this approach because it works very well for me, and others take their approach because it works well for them. If you are still searching for “what works well for you,” think about some of these things; consider trying them yourself. Decide on your own “what works for you,” rather than just assuming what I say or what someone else says is automatically right.
You ready?
Let’s go.
Playing with a limited scope of players
As you probably know by now, I am one of the only “single entry” guys among “well-known” DFS players. I rarely build more than one or two teams on any given weekend (with the exception of the Millionaire Maker, where – given the pool 400,000 entries – I usually throw an extra eight or ten teams into the mix; still a small number of entries for most guys with the bankroll to go higher, but plenty of entries for me).
Because this is such a unique approach, it’s worth saying a few words on why I do this – especially because I pretty much take the same approach with my Millionaire Maker teams (building around a core of players, and being fine having either a good weekend across the board or a bad weekend across the board).
I dig into this more deeply in my RotoAcademy course on Roster Construction (yes, that’s a shameless plug, but cut me some slack, okay? – no one is going to read my NBA course on “transitioning from NFL to NBA” now that I’m finishing it so late, so I may as well try to push you toward the most valuable thing I have ever written in regards to daily fantasy sports: my NFL Roster Construction course), but basically, I feel each and every one of us has the ability to narrow “the best plays of the week at each position” down to a very limited scope of guys. And once we have done this, most of us who are aiming to “build a bunch of teams through which we can cover all our bases” end up expanding far beyond this “limited scope of players” into players we do not actually like at all.
If you like to build only one team each week, do what I do: narrow down your list of “favorite players at each position” to as fine a point as you can, then build the absolute best team you can build from that group of guys.
If you want to throw in extra entries, consider giving yourself “an all or nothing” weekend – mixing and matching only among this limited scope of players. Listen: if things go well, they are going to go really, really well.
What is my core?
Do not predetermine what your “core” is!
Instead, build as many practice teams as you can – continually narrowing things down to your favorite players on the weekend. Then, start building the teams you plan to use. Last weekend, I built all 12 of my Millionaire Maker teams before realizing that Matthew Stafford was on eight or nine of them, Chris Ivory was on eight or nine of them, Charcandrick West was on 11 of them (oops), and Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jordan Cameron were on all 12. I did not “decide” that these guys would be my core. These guys became my core because I liked them that much. Allow your core to come together organically – then don’t second-guess it! There was a reason, after all, that you put the same players on so many of your teams.
“Cash game options” versus “tournament options”
Because every team I build – regardless of whether this team is for tournaments or for cash games – aims to carry players across the board who have both a high floor and a high ceiling (again: see my RotoAcademy course on Roster Construction in NFL!), I usually build a team for tournaments, and then use this team in cash games. My thinking? – if I think this team is good enough to win a tournament, it sure as heck better be good enough to cash in a double-up or 50/50!
Now, I will still – in my writing – designate certain guys as “tournament options.” This is typically because I may feel comfortable using that guy in cash games myself, but I do not feel comfortable recommending him to others in cash games. Other times, it may be a player like Lamar Miller (last week) or Terrance Williams (this week) on whom we have to speculate in regards to usage, but for whom the upside is high enough (and the ownership will be low enough) that the “speculation” is worth it in tournaments, while not being worth it in cash games. Generally speaking, though, “tournament options” are “cash game options” for me!
As for this week…
By this point in the week, you know already the chalk plays you should be considering. I don’t need to tell you about guys like Philip Rivers and Todd Gurley and Antonio Gates, because you’ve heard and read about them already (and what would I tell you, anyway? – “Be smart; play these guys”; anyone can say that). I am, however, going to look at a few guys at each position who could “upset” the chalk plays this week by outscoring them, or who could be added to a “chalk play team” in order to create some differentiation.
So, yeah. Play “those guys.” But add these guys to your narrowed-down list as well.
QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck v Saints: Let me tell you a story: In my longtime fantasy league (myself and a group of close friends – a league that has been together for ten years now), we do not put up any money for the season, and there is really no reason beyond “bragging rights” to care too much about winning. We do, however (naturally), all care about winning, and we do have something called “The Ring of Shame”: lowest point total of the week each week has to shave a visible ring of hair in their body (typically, this is done on the forearm or calf, though we have had some creative endeavors that cannot exactly be spoken of here). Because I was so wrapped up in MLB DFS this summer, I had not done any NFL research or prep by the time we had our auction draft in that league. So I thought, “I know what I’ll do. I’ll get a bunch of younger, high-upside guys who will give me a shot at a championship run later in the year, and I’ll pay up for a really good quarterback.” Our league awards six points for passing touchdowns (rather than the standard four), and is non-PPR, so having a top QB can make a huge difference. Mainly, though, I had noticed that the guy in our league who pays up for Aaron Rodgers each year (and usually surrounds Rodgers with an otherwise subpar team) has not had the Ring of Shame in four or five seasons. That “top QB” provides such a high floor for the team, you’re pretty much guaranteed to avoid the Ring of Shame. Unless, of course, that “top QB” is Andrew Luck in 2015, and those “younger, high-upside guys” include Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah, Davante Adams, and Alshon Jeffery. Six weeks into the season, I have a bald stripe shaved down my shin from top to bottom, and a pair of bald rings running through it. Anyhow, much like Alshon Jeffery (and very unlike my chances of making a championship run in that league), Luck is healthy again, and is ready to dominate. He’s playing one of the worst secondaries in football, and the Saints should put up points as well. Luck will go somewhat overlooked as everyone pays down for Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers, and is a very strong option this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick at Patriots: It’s funny to me when the weapons a quarterback will be throwing to are given really high rankings by most “fantasy experts,” but when the quarterback throwing to those wide receivers is ranked very low. How are those wide receivers supposed to accumulate their points? Statistical errors? Fumble recoveries in the end zone? Ryan Fitzpatrick will not dazzle you with his arm strength, but he can get the ball to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. The Jets are likely to, eventually, be playing from behind in this one, and will have to pass to keep up. You’re already toying with the idea of using Brandon Marshall and/or Eric Decker on your teams this week, right? So why not consider Fitzpatrick as a very cheap, very strong, very overlooked tournament option as well?
RUNNING BACKS
Dion Lewis v Jets: If Lewis is healthy, he will be on the field. A lot. Remember when the Patriots played the Bills and threw the ball 59 times? Yeah – that was because the Bills have a great run defense. The Jets have a great run defense, too. And sure, the Jets are also good at stopping the pass (and are good at covering running backs), but this is still the likeliest way for the Pats to attack: short, quick passes to our guys who are good at catching the ball. Dion Lewis is good at catching the ball.
DeMarco Murray at Panthers: Hey, look, it’s DeMarco Murray! Murray is still good (he was good back before the Cowboys’ line was dominant; he was just always hurt), and even though Mathews looks even better in this offense than Murray – to my eyes, at least – Murray is the one getting the work, so Murray is the one who warrants attention. The Panthers are middling against the run, and given the troubles the Eagles are likely to have moving the ball through the air in this one, we may see even more runs than normal. Most importantly, however, Murray is likely to go somewhat overlooked with the other running backs who are available (and are being more heavily talked about) this weekend, and could provide a very solid tournament pivot.
Mark Ingram at Colts: Remember when C.J. Spiller was going to dominate passing down work? Remember when Ingram then averaged five targets per game through the first six weeks of the season? Ingram may not see 20 carries (he has only hit that mark once – last week), and the Colts are certainly much better against the run than they were in the past, but this is still an above-average matchup for Ingram, and I expect him to go severely overlooked this weekend. I would stay away in cash games (you see, there are these guys named Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray and Lamar Miller), but I would not at all argue against using Ingram in tourneys.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Donte Moncrief v Saints: My dad grew up in Louisiana. That’s how I know that “Breaux” is supposed to be pronounced “Bro.” That’s a pretty easy one, sure, but what about when Bobby Hebert was quarterback of the Saints? Did you know at the time that his name was pronounced “Eh-bear,” or were you surprised when you heard it pronounced that way on television? Well, okay, fine. But that’s not what matters. What matters is that Delvin Breaux is beginning to emerge as a borderline-elite corner. Last week, he shadowed Julio Jones and held Jones far below his expected level of production. This week, he is expected to shadow T.Y. Hilton. The more I’ve been reading up and “watching up” on Breaux, the more I’m moving toward Moncrief this week. Moncrief is likely to be squaring off with Brandon Browner. You know how to pronounce Browner’s name without help, and more importantly, you also know he sucks.
Terrance Williams at Giants: Who’s going to roster Williams? No one – that’s who. But listen (don’t laugh – just listen), the Cowboys are moving to Matt Cassel because they want their quarterback to push the ball down the field more. Dez Bryant is still going to be out this week, and Williams is the only guy to whom the Cowboys can really “push the ball downfield” (don’t ask me, “What about Brice Butler – please, just don’t). I expect Williams to receive seven to nine targets. This is a bad pass defense he is facing; therefore, I expect him to turn those targets into a really solid game. No one else will be on Williams. Why not hop aboard yourself?
Rishard Matthews v Texans: Most people, it seems, would rather be “one week late” than “one week early” on a guy whose name they did not know when the season started. Heck, most people would rather be “two weeks late.” No one is looking at Matthews this week; no one is ranking him inside the top 30; no one is giving him fantasy love. But guess what? He played about 90% of the Dolphins’ snaps last week, and while Tannehill is going to be passing less moving forward (thank God!), Matthews is still a solid bet for seven to nine targets. The Texans are banged up at corner, and Matthews is the Dolphins’ best perimeter threat. I like Terrance Williams even a bit more than Matthews, but I like each guy as a strong tournament play.
TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce v Steelers: You remember Travis Kelce, right? Athletic profile like Gronk’s, with the nickname of Zeus? – yeah, that’s the guy. I don’t blame you for forgetting who he is – it seems Andy Reid has forgotten, too. With Jeremy Maclin and Jamaal Charles out this week, though, Reid may be forced to scheme the ball to Zeus, even if they once had a fight at Andy Reid’s favorite dessert bar and haven’t spoken since (disclaimer: that did not actually happen – that I know of). If Kelce can receive eight to ten targets, he is a strong bet to be the highest-scoring tight end on the weekend. He should receive eight to ten targets.
Delanie Walker v Falcons: Remember how the Patriots were “maybe the best team in football” for about ten years…without winning the Super Bowl once? Well, back before that ten-year drought, Benjamin Watson was on the last Patriots team that won a Super Bowl. That’s how old he is, and he shredded the Falcons defense last week to the tune of ten catches for 127 yards and a touchdown! In three of Zach Mettenberger six starts last year, Delanie Walker saw at least seven targets. Walker is good. He’s also facing that same Falcons team that Benjamin Watson torched. Maybe use tight ends against the Falcons?
Even if you don’t use tight ends against the Falcons, and instead use Antonio Gates against the Raiders (duh), let’s make plans to meet up with one another at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.
Also, let’s meet up on the contest page for my King of the Hill head-to-head. I’ll post the link on Twitter on Sunday once games begin, if you want to follow along and offer support and help to keep me sane.
Until then – go build a great team. And win money. And we’ll start over again in Week 8.