DFS Alerts
Reds have tonight's top run projection (4.93) against Garza
The Reds start this afternoon with the top run projection on the board, coming at a modest 4.93 runs. It’s rare that we don’t see a single offense projected for more than five runs and especially strange to see the Reds (82 wRC+ at home, 78 wRC+ vs RHP) on top, but that goes to show you have bad Garza has been. Batters from both sides have a wOBA exceeding .350 against him since last season. This is a lineup players will probably want at least some exposure to, even at higher prices, with four of the top five bats in the order costing $4.3K or more on DraftKings, while Adam Duvall (117 wRC+, .320 ISO vs RHP since 2015) being the potential bargain at $3K on FanDuel. The remainder of the lineup comes in at $3.6K or less on either site. With a significant history against Garza, Jay Bruce (124 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP this season) has had the most success with seven extra-base hits, inlcuding three HRs in 35 PAs, but also with nine strikeouts. Joey Votto (158 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of the top overall bats tonight and probably still a decent value at a higher cost.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Garza, Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall
Baseball returns with Friday matinee in Chicago
The Texas Rangers and LHP Martin Perez visit the Chicago Cubs and RHP Kyle Hendricks in the lone Friday afternoon game. The Cubs are large (-179) favorites making Hendricks a safe option to use at SP, especially on sites where the win is a big factor. The Cubs are also a good team to target on offense with Vegas giving them a run total topping 4 1/2 runs. The top four of the order (Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras) are all excellent options and even Russell, Baez, and Almora are worth consideration. Despite hitting eighth, Almora is especially intriguing at his price point – he has a .405 wOBA and .357 ISO vs LHP (however, very small sample size of 28 at bats) this season. The Rangers are for the most part not worth your time but you could make an argument for the LH bats of Rougned Odor (leading off) and Nomar Mazara (batting third).
As reported by: Chicago Cubs official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Rougned Odor
Scott Van Slyke can still hit left-handed pitchers
Van Slyke has been more under the radar this year so far after returning from injury. Still, he has a respectable wRC+ of 140 against LHP, in addition to a 0.313 ISO. Van Slyke will be batting 8th, so perhaps he is best used as a GPP play today with the upside of receiving a couple of free base on balls. Christian Friedrich will be the pitcher Van Slyke faces today, and Friedrich has struggled against RHBs, sporting a xFIP of 5.11. Look to Van Slyke as a punt outfielder with an above average matchup and a below average lineup position.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Christian Friedrich
Ryan Rua will bat cleanup against the left-handed throwing Tommy Milone
Ryan Rua boasts an impressive 152 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this year. His ISO is not as impressive, standing at a respectable 0.197, leaving DFS players to view Rua as a high floor, average ceiling option today against Milone. Rua is striking out 20% of the time against LHPs, so there is some risk in playing him, but Milone is a below average pitcher, sporting a 3.98 xFIP agaisnt RHBs this year. Rua may be better used as part of a Rangers stack, but he can be considered a viable mid-tier option, regardless of his limitations.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Tommy Milone Salvador Perez will bat second today versus Mike Montgomery
Mike Montgomery has a respectable wOBA against LHBs and RHBs and is allowing a FB % under 20% against LHBs and RHBs. In 31 innings pitched, Montgomery has not allowed a home run to right-handed batter, so Perez may look like a more viable option at first glance than he actually will be today. Consider Royals RHBs average plays today and potentially avoid in Royals stacks.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Mike Montgomery Recent Ownership shows DFSers think Giancarlo Stanton is back and he is facing Cody Reed today.
Cody Reed has a 4.76 xFIP versus RHBs this year and is only striking out RHBs 19% of the time. His unbelievably high HR/FB ratio does not seem sustainable (39%), but his hard hit rate allowed to these same RHBs is a substantial 43%, in addition to 31% medium hit contact. Basically, Cody Reed is getting hit extremely hard and that is Giancarlo Stanton’s specialty. Look for the contact Stanton makes today to be leaving his bat at a high velocity and just maybe out of the park….
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Cody Reed Roth's weather report is out and it is good weather around the league
Roth shares that the weather around the league looks pretty fantastic today with a slight bump in wind in the San Francisco game. Check out the full report.
As reported by: RG MLB Weather Report Anibal Sanchez has struggled versus LHB and RHB, making Tulowitzki a fine option at SS
Anibal Sanchez this year against RHBs has a xFIP of 5.64, striking out RHBs only 15% of the time. The Blue Jays lineup is without Encarnacion today, bumping Troy Tulowitzki into the 4th spot. Tulowitzki boasts an impressive 0.244 ISO against right-handed pitching.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Anibal Sanchez Mets load up on left-handed bats to try and get to Nats ace Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer strikes out LHBs at a lower rate, 28.5%, compared to 37% versus RHBs. This can explain why the Mets have stacked up 7 of 8 batters who will be taking swings as LHBs. Yoenis Cespedes will start the game on the bench, while Neil Walker will take over the 3rd spot in the lineup against the Nats ace.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Neil Walker, Max Scherzer Nats RHBs will be chalk, but Logan Verrett has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB
Using Nationals batters may be a chalk strategy in the night slate, but Verrett has been awful in recent starts. His 5.87 xFIP versus right-handed batters makes him an obvious target with players like Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon. Verrett’s only statistic that may give DFS players pause would be his 27% HR/FB ratio on only 32% flyballs to right-handed batters. With a 31% hard hit rate, it seems like this HR/FB rate may be somewhat unsustainable. If you think it can continue for another outing, use the Nats RHBs at will tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon Chad Kuhl is a ticking time bomb, facing the Cubs tonight
Chad Kuhl has been getting away with a egregious fly ball percentage (55%) and a giant xFIP (6.84). Kuhl has somehow avoided giving up a home run with this inflated fly ball figure, so regression is surely lurking around the corner. Look to Anthony Rizzo and his ridiculous 178 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching tonight to end Kuhl’s homer-free stretch against LHBs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl Targeting John Lamb is less automatic at this point in the season, though Marlins RHBs are still viable options
Over his last few starts, John Lamb does still have an xFIP of 4.43, which is nothing to write home about. Still, Lamb has been able to strike out batters at a 25% rate, which has helped him to limit the damage. If for some reason this improvement is a mirage and Lamb’s 1.85 HR/9 is still more of who he really is as a pitcher, then play Giancarlo Stanton and sit back and enjoy the results.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: John Lamb Stack Orioles when they face a pitcher with a low k% and a high fb % (e.g. Nick Tropeano)
Nick Tropeano allows fly balls and does not strike out RHBs at a large rate. This is the perfect recipe for firing up the Baltimore Orioles stack. Tropeano’s 52% fly ball percentage versus LHBs and 45% fly ball percentage to RHBs are likely to be a problem for him playing in a smaller park in Baltimore. Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado have both have identical wRC+ totals of 147 and ISO totals of 0.267. Hyun Kim has less raw power with an ISO of 156, but his wRC+ of 156 versus RHPs makes him a great mid-tier outfield play.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Manny Machado Kendrys Morales is a great option versus Wade Miley
Wade Miley simply looked uncomfortable in his last start. He threw over to first base two and three time multiple times throughout the game with a runner taking about a 1 foot lead. He looked as though he did not want to throw the ball to the plate. Perhaps he is keenly aware of his 6% strike out rate over his last couple of starts, accompanying a z-contact rate of 91%. Miley is basically surviving his starts recently and he will try and survive a Saturday start against the Royals. Kendrys Morales has been much better this year as a right-handed batter and makes for a strong mid-tier first base play.
As reported by: FanGraphs 3 reasons to play Jake Lamb today
Firstly, Jake Peavy has a 6.61 xFIP in his last few starts, but has not paid significantly for his poor peripheral statistics. There is such thing as a successful flyball pitcher, but regression would sure seem to occur in the near future for Mr. Peavy. Secondly, Peavy has a 53% fly ball percentage against LHBs, while only giving up a 3% FB/HR ratio. He does play in San Francisco, but 3% seems much to low to be maintained for the remainder of the season. Lastly, Jake Lamb boasts a 168 wRC+ against RHPs, bolstered by a ridiculous 0.347 ISO.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Jake Peavy