DFS Alerts
Matt Holliday is out of the Cards lineup, leaving Grichuk to bat 4th for the Cards against Chase Anderson
Holliday tested out his ankle today, but will not be able to play. Randal Grichuk will enjoy batting cleanup against the reverse splits throwing Chase Anderson and makes for a great last second replacement to any Cardinals stacks.
As reported by: Mark Saxon on Twitter Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk
Aledmys Diaz, Chase Anderson, and reverse splits
Chase Anderson has displayed reverse splits over the last two season, and while some may not believe it true reverse splits, Anderson’s 15% K rate and 42% FB% versus RHBs indicate that he is susceptible to RHBs. Shortstop is often a pivotal position for a DFS lineup, so look no further than Aledmys Diaz, who sports a 153 wRC+ and an ISO of 0.240 when facing RHPs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chase Anderson Weather is looking good today with no orange or red to be found on the Roth Report
The weather report is out and everything looks fairly calm. No rating worse than yellow for any of the games today. Check out the full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather LHBs have a .363 wOBA and 35.0 Hard% vs Cashner since 2015, Seager has a 159 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP
In an injury (another) riddled season, Andrew Cashner has gone more than six innings just once (only by one out) and is sitting on a career low 6.9 K-BB%. LHBs have a .363 wOBA and 35.0 Hard% against him since last season putting all the Dodger lefties on the board here. Corey Seager (159 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP career) is a top bat at SS tonight, while the suddenly hot (179 wRC+ last seven days) Yasmani Grandal (104 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an interesting Catcher play for less than $3.5K. Gonzalez (124 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Utley (116 wRC+ vs RHP this season) round out the usable list at $3.7 each on DraftKings and just over $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Cashner, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley
MLB Weather Report has been updated. WAS@NYM downgraded to YELLOW/ORANGE
Friday’s Weather Report has been updated. Nationals-Mets is the primary concern and has a chance for a mid-game delay. Check out the link below for a full breakdown on today’s games. Follow David Wolter on Twitter for continued updates (@DavidWolter1).
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
John Gray has a 21 K% over the last month and career at home, matching a 21.3 HR/FB
The Phillies are probably in the worst spot a visiting team can be in Colorado, facing Jon Gray (25.4 K%), but it’s still a decent spot as Gray’s 21.4 career K% at home matches his 21.3 HR/FB in that park, which also matches his 21.0 K% over the last month. The Phillies are projected for just above five runs and Gray has a reverse platoon split with RHBs holding a .343 wOBA agianst him since his callup last year. Maikel Franco (120 wRC+, .212 ISO career vs RHP) is the top bat here, but costs $5K on DraftKings, although a red hot Peter Bourjos (202 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% last seven day) is interesting for less than $4K along with Cameron Rupp (107 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this year) behind the plate.
Other tagged players: Cameron Rupp, Peter Bourjos, Jon Gray Wacha coming off a 20.8% K-BB% perfomance in his last start versus Milwaukee
Wacha is pitching basically in-line with his peripherals in his last six starts. The difference is he’s finally getting the results that were lacking the first two months of the season. Wacha sits right around average with a 20% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate with an average GB% and hard contact rate. Wacha is the prototypical better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher. The Brewers high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (26.0% K%) gives Wacha a bit of additional strikeout upside in this matchup, though the ballpark in Milwaukee is a significant downgrade. There are a few Brewers hitters that we can consider as their implied run total is on the rise (4.3). Jonathan Lucroy (136 wRC, .382 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Braun (129 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .199 ISO vs RHP) are the top options as they bat in the heart of the Brewers lineup and are reasonably priced. Chris Carter (.244 ISO vs RHP) is always a tournament play with his double HR upside in Miller Park.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter Hamels has allowed 15 HRs this season, Twins have several strong bats against LHP
Cole Hamels has just a slightly above average 14.0 K-BB% with a career high 84.8 LOB% keeping his ERA below three with estimators above four. While he’s very unpredictable from start to start, he could throw a gem and cover his cost below $10K tonight, but the Twins are not an easy matchup for LHP any longer (102 wRC+, 14.3 HR/FB) despite a 23.3 K%. Two inexpensive lefty mashers right at the top draw our interest if looking for affordable players with upside tonight. Miguel Sano (146 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP career) costs about $4K on either site and Robbie Grossman (184 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP this year) costs just above $3K. Other strong bats vs LHP (Nunez – 137 wRC+, .260 ISO this season and Dozier – 183 wRC+, .343 ISO this season) cost $4.4K each on DraftKings. Hamels has allowed 15 HRs this year.
Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, Robbie Grossman, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Nunez The Rockies have tonight's top run projection (6.2), but Velasquez has struck out 14 of 43 since returning from DL
The Rockies have tonight’s top run projection at 6.2 runs tonight, as is often the case at home, but they do not have an easy matchup against Vincent Velasquez, who has come back from the DL strong, striking out 14 of 43 batters. He might even be a considered contrarian play for less than $8K on a less star studded night against an offense that has a 29.7 K% over the last week. Colorado bats like Nolan Arenado (127 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Trevor Story (105 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP) still project strongly in this environment, but are very expensive and won’t allow players to pay up for pitching. Additionally, Velasquez has a bit of a split platoon in his career (.294 wOBA, 25.6 Hard% vs LHBs), perhaps lessening the appeal of Carlos Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has just a 15 wRC+ and .211 ISO over the last week. Colorado bats are always in play, especially with a six run projection, if you can afford them, but circumstances might suggest less exposure than normal tonight.
Other tagged players: Vince Velasquez, Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez Garcia bats lead off, Jimmy Nelson has a 5.50 xFIP, 2.3% K-BB% versus LHB
Nelson (4.93 SIERA, 6.9% K-BB%) has significant platoon splits making the Cardinals left-handed hitters batting in the top half of the lineup ideal targets. Compounding the struggles Nelson has with left-handed batters is a massive 38.6% Hard%. We don’t need to completely write off all of the Cardinals right-handed batters like Aledmys Diaz (overpriced on DraftKings), but we should stick primarily to the lefties. Greg Garcia (173 wRC+, .430 wOBA, .151 ISO vs RHP) gets the nod at lead off spot and makes for a great punt SS option. Matt Adams (.212 ISO vs RHP) can be considered for his power upside in a hitters ballpark as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Jimmy Nelson Collin McHugh has a 3.41 ERA, 3.69 FIP and 24.3 K% over the last month
Collin McHugh had a sky high BABIP earlier in the season without a bad batted ball or contact profile behind it, but has just a .293 BABIP since May 30th and has had better results with a 3.41 ERA and 3.69 FIP over the last month with an unexpected spike in strikeouts (24.2%) and SwStr (13%) over that span. While the A’s have just a 17.9 K% vs RHP and may limit his upside, they are are poor offense vs RHP (83 wRC+, 8.8 HR/FB). Many players may not yet be onto a rejuvenated McHugh and he’s a great way to compliment a high priced pitcher for just $7.5K on DraftKings. No Oakland bat has a wRC+ above 80 or hard hit rate above 30% over the last week.
Sale showing signs of returning to his old form, has a 14.1% SwStr% in his last five starts
Sale’s strikeout rate (25.0%) has not been as elite as his 32.1% K% from last season, but it has been on the rise recently. Sale has been flashing his former dominance a little more lately with a 28.4% K% over his last five starts and racking up at least seven strikeouts in each of those five starts. Sale has been a little lucky this season, as evidenced by his 3.54 SIERA versus 2.93 ERA, but a matchup with the weak Atlanta offense shouldn’t be the spot where the regression monster strikes. The Braves rank last in ISO and 29th in wOBA against LHP with a 21% K%. The elite matchup puts Sale up into the Fernandez and Strasburg tier as far as strikeout projection for pitchers. There is a strong case to be made for ranking Sale as the top pitcher option on this slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Kyle Gibson has a 58 GB% against RHBs and nearly an average K% over the last month
Texas is projected for 5.44 runs tonight, but they have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and were shut down with a similar projection against a mediocre RHP last night. While Kyle Gibson has an ERA with estimators well above four, LHBs have just a .318 wOBA against him since last year and RHBs only .299 with both hitting balls hard at less than a 30% clip. Additionally, he has a 58.0 GB% with a 27.0 Soft% vs RHBs, essentially capping their upside tonight. Gibson also has an 18.8 K% over the last month and has a 48.8 GB% against LHBs this season. Only Profar (148 wRC+) and Mazara (115 wRC+) have been above average vs RHP this season, batting 6th and 7th tonight. Each has an ISO just above .170 as well. Shin Soo Choo has a 138 wRC+ and .209 ISO vs RHP since last season and may be the top play here atop the lineup, though this may not be as juicy a spot as Vegas believes.
Other tagged players: Kyle Gibson, Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara RHBs have a .376 wOBA against Wisler, White Sox bats can provide salary relief
Matt Wisler has a 12.9 SwStr% or better in three of his last four starts, but continues to allow hard contact this season (37.6%) and has allowed a .376 wOBA to LHBs over his career. Projected for more than five runs tonight, a few LH White Sox bats might be able to give players some salary relief in the Outfield (Cabrera and Eaton) and behind the plate (Navarro). The two outfielders are just average hitters vs RHP for around $3.5K on DraftKings, while Navarro is a bit worse for $3K on either site with a 193 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Melky Cabrera, Dioner Navarro, Matt Wisler Blue Jays implied run total has increased to 5.9 runs, second highest on the slate
Mike Pelfrey (5.25 SIERA, 2.2% K-BB%) really isn’t as bad as he’s made out to be in the DFS community, but he definitely isn’t good. Pelfrey has an outstanding 60.4% ground ball rate with a solid 23.1% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters which should play to his advantage in Toronto. Unfortunately, no amount of ground balls can make Pelfrey safe against this Blue Jays offense with a 11.6% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate to RHB. The Blue Jays actually have a few left-handed batters with upside, and that is where Pelfrey has real problems. His ground ball rate drops to 45%, his hard hits go up to 33% and his strikeout rate drops to 9.6% against lefties. This puts Michael Saunders (140 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .239 ISO vs RHP) and Ezequiel Carrera high on our radar tonight. Josh Donaldson is the top RHB to target as he excels against right-handed pitching with a 162 wRC+, .417 wOBA, .309 ISO and has had no trouble hitting against ground ball pitchers.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Ezequiel Carrera