DFS Alerts
Phillies head to Coors Field, 134 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .251 ISO over the past 7 days
Chad Bettis is an average major league starting pitcher that get’s the unfortunate disadvantage of pitching roughly half of his starts at Coors Field. Bettis (4.17 SIERA, 11.7% K-BB%) has pitched much better than his 5.85 ERA would lead us to believe, but most of that stems from the “Coors effect” and a high .347 BABIP and a low 62.3% LOB%. We would typically assume that Bettis is due for positive regression but it is so difficult to accurately gauge the advanced stats of Rockies pitchers. There are a considerable amount of warning signs that Bettis may be able to contain this Phillies offense tonight and their hitters may not be the slam dunk plays we thought they were. With that said, we still want to target Phillies hitters travelling to the best hitting environment in Major League Baseball. Bettis has actually struggled more with RHB this season (5.19 FIP, .375 wOBA, 38.4% Hard%) so we don’t want to just rule out the righties in the Phillies lineup. Odubel Herrera (147 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP) and Maikel Franco (110 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP) are going to the most popular Phillies options tonight and will be for good reason. Cody Asche (116 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .239 ISO vs RHP) and Cameron Rupp (113 wRC+, .343 wOBA, ..217 ISO vs RHP) are the other two bats that should be included in any Phillies stack.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Cody Asche, Cameron Rupp, Chad Bettis
Chi Chi Gonzalez does not allow a lot of hard contact, but has a -1.3 K-BB% in 72.2 innings
Chi Chi Gonzalez pitched poorly in his first start and lasted just eight batters in his second. In 72.2 big league innings he has a -1.3 K-BB%, while striking out less than 16% of batters in 168 AAA innings over the last two seasons, doing nothing to cement the #2 prospect ranking in the system that Fangraphs bestowed upon him prior to the 2014 season. His issue has been walks and lack of strikeouts as he’s actually held LHBs to a 55.4 GB% with just one HR in the majors, while RHBs have just a .275 wOBA. While we generally don’t feel comfortable paying up for walks, the Twins are projected for over five runs tonight and have several above average hitters against RHP in a great park. The first three plus Kepler and Grossman all have a wRC+ between 105 and 119 vs RHP this year with Sano (.219 ISO) and Kepler (.241 ISO) supplying the power. Joe Mauer at $3.5K on DraftKings might be the bargain though. He has little power left at this stage, but he may be the most likely to take a walk or two (16.5% vs RHP this year) and score a couple of runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Miguel Sano
Athletics offense is scuffling, 60 wRC+, .261 wOBA, .125 ISO over the past week
Doug Fister (4.81 SIERA, 7.6% K-BB%) has out pitched his peripherals so far this season as he as for most of his career. Fister is susceptible to giving up the long ball (15.0% HR/FB) and has really struggled against LHB this year (5.52 xFIP, .392 wOBA, 4.8% K-BB%). If those numbers aren’t concerning enough, Fister is also allowing a 38.1% Hard% while surrendering 2.31 HR/9 to LHB. We can make a case for any of the A’s hitters swinging from the left side of the plate but we shouldn’t go overboard on this loaded slate. We should focus in on Josh Reddick (156 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .180 ISO vs RHP) ans Stephen Vogt (100 wRC+, .320 wOBA, .149 ISO vs RHP) for our Oakland exposure mostly. Jed Lowrie can also be considered given his cheap price tag and lineup spot.
Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Jed Lowrie, Doug Fister Rich Hill has a 27.8 K% and the Astros strike out 23.4% against LHP
Rich Hill has thrown 53.5% of his pitches in the strike zone, which would tie him for the major league lead if he had enough innings and many of those are with a curveball. He somehow still has a 9.0 BB% this season because a lot of those curveballs are taken, but that’s also allowed him to strike out 27.8% of batters with just a 10.8 SwStr%. He faces a team with a 24.6 K% at home and 23.4 K% vs LHP. The Astros have patience (10.3 BB% vs LHP) and power (16.0 HR/FB at home), but just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP and Hill has just allowed two HRs this season. A 3.4 HR/FB is undoubtedly too low, even for an Oakland pitcher, but if should give players some confidence that he can avoid a HR barrage in Houston tonight. He’s the only one of three pitchers with a strikeout rate above 27% to face an offense with a high strikeout rate also and is probably tonight’s top pitcher on a weak board full of volatile arms up top. George Springer has a 153 wRC+ and .244 ISO vs RHP since last season with a 199 wRC+ over the last week, but we’re otherwise hesistant to attack a pitcher with a wOBA of .254 or less allowed to batters from either side since last season.
Other tagged players: George Springer Braves implied run total has decreased to 3.6 runs, tied for second lowest on the slate
Hammel is coming off horrendous start where he gave up 5 home runs to the Mets, resulting in 10 ER in only 4 IP. However, he gets an above average matchup against the weak-hitting Braves offense tonight (73 wRC+, .282 wOBA, .111 ISO vs RHP). The one downside of targeting the Braves with our pitchers is their tendency to limit strikeouts (19.8% K% vs RHP). On a slate like tonight where there is a limited amount of high upside starting pitcher options, we don’t necessarily need massive strikeout potential from our starting pitchers making Hammel one of the safer options on this slate. Hammel has gotten slightly lucky this year (.249 BABIP, 80.8% LOB%) which factors into his 4.45 SIERA being a full run higher than his ERA. With so many places to target hitters tonight, feel confident in firing up Hammel in all formats as cost saving option. The only Braves bat that we can even consider is Freddie Freeman (119 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) as a contrarian tournament play at 1B.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman LHBs have a .437 wOBA and 44.1 Hard% vs Paxton since last season
James Paxton is still averaging 97 mph with his fastball, but five or fewer strikeouts in three of his last four starts, including just two last time out, have dropped his strikeout rate to 22.9%, which is still fine, but Kansas City has just a 17.4 K% at home and 18.3 K% vs LHP, making him a marginal start when you also consider just 5.3% of his contact has been considered Soft. That’s more than seven points below the lowest qualified pitcher and a problem. For his career, lefties have actually hit him at a much better rate with a .437 wOBA and 44.1 Hard% since last season (as opposed to .295 wOBA, 28.3 Hard% for RHBs). This makes Eric Hosmer (120 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP) a highly unlikely top target at First Base tonight, while Alex Gordon (117 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) worthy of consideration for around $3K as well. Kendrys Morales (162 wRC+, .290 ISO vs LHP this season) is the only RHB on our radar as he has been hammering the baseball (298 wRC+, .53.3 Hard% over the last week).
Other tagged players: James Paxton, Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales Tyler Duffey has a reverse split (.358 wOBA vs RHP) and Desmond has hit RHP well (120 wRC+, .206 ISO)
Tyler Duffey has a reverse platoon split. RHBs have a .358 wOBA and 31.7 Hard% through 131.2 career innings, while LHBs are 55 points less with just a 28.6 Hard%. That works out great for Ian Desmond, who might be the team’s best hitter vs RHP this season (120 wRC+, .206 ISO). He also costs at least $4K on each site. Of the Rangers LHBs, only Profar (161 wRC+) in limited opportunities and Mazara (117 wRC+) batting eighth, have a wRC+ above 105, though Odor does have a .219 ISO. No Texas bat is below $3.7K on DraftKings. Despite the best record in the American League and many LHBs, the Rangers have just a 91 wRC+ vs RHP this year with fairly average strikeout, walk, and HR rates. They are projected for well over five runs tonight anyway, but players on DraftKings looking for a cheap secondary option could consider that Tyler Duffey has the same 13.8 K-BB% as Trevor Bauer this year for half the price. There’s a difference in opponent quality and park tonight, of course, but he costs just $5.1K with some upside.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jurickson Profar, Tyler Duffey, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara Duffy has allowed 10 HRs to RHBs in last eight starts and Nelson Cruz has mashed LHP (195 wRC+, .420 ISO)
Danny Duffy was thought to be a five inning pitcher until striking out 16 over 16.2 innings in his last two starts without a walk. The issue we have here is that it’s not something we can absolutely count on going forward and his price is now in the $9K range, which is fine for a guy with a 28.9 K% (14.8 SwStr%) in a home park that’s great for fly ball pitchers (0.75 GB/FB), but he’d previously only gone more than six innings just once this year and only by a single out. He also has a matchup against an offense with a 17.8 HR/FB vs LHP in what’s considered one of the worst parks for RH power in baseball. Duffy has allowed 10 HRs over his last eight starts, all of them to RHBs and seven of them at home. While Duffy is certainly playable with that enormous strikeout rate, strong consideration has to go to Nelson Cruz (195 wRC+, .420 ISO vs LHP this season), who might even be tonight’s top OF bat against a HR prone lefty, and Franklin Gutierrez (156 wRC+, .277 ISO vs LHP since 2015). Dae-Ho Lee has shown good power against LHP as well (122 wRC+, .226 ISO).
Other tagged players: Danny Duffy, Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee Blue Jays are striking out a 26.8% clip over the past week, still implied to score 5.1 runs
This is a tough matchup to get a read on today. Verlander (3.72 SIERA, 19.1% K-BB%) has pitched great for most of the season other than a few minor hiccups. Verlander is the epitome of tournament only play on this slate as he has the strikeout upside to dominate, but the Blue Jays have the bats to run him from this game quickly. After watching what Ian Kennedy did to the Blue Jays offense last night, we will have to give slightest of edges to Verlander in this matchup. If wanting to consider the Toronto offense, we should stick to targeting the Blue Jays power bats, Josh Donaldson (159 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .307 ISO vs RHP) and Edwin Encarnacion (126 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .246 ISO vs RHP), as they are the most likely to take advantage of Verlander and his 46.6% FB%.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion Trevor Bauer has just eight Ks with six BBs over his last two starts and just a 13.8 K-BB% on the year
Trevor Bauer had a five stretch start to June that looked like a breakout, but after walking six with just eight strikeouts in 11 innings over his last two outings, we’re left to wonder if it was just a hot streak. His 13.8 K-BB% on the season is just above average, but he is facing the 2nd worst road offense in baseball (79 wRC+). They strike out just 18.8% vs RHP, but they’re 26.9 Hard% against them doesn’t play as well away from Yankee Stadium. Bauer can be used against a weak lineup at home, but whether he can be counted on for more than $9K is a different story. While LHBs have a 34.2 Hard% against Bauer since last season, Carlos Beltran is the top bat vs RHP this year with a 120 wRC+ and .243 ISO. McCann is the only other batters to have an ISO above .200 (.202) and even that is likely only because of the Yankee Stadium boost.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann Cubs shuffle lineup (La Stella leads off, Zobrist cleanup) against Braves & Harrell
Lucas Harrell hasn’t pitched regularly in the major leagues since 2013. He’s bounced around the minor leagues with walk rates nearly matching his strikeout rates since, which is not a good thing against a Cubs team that has a 10.8 BB% against RHP. Perhaps that’s why they have a run projection over six at Wrigley tonight. For his career, LHBs and RHBs both hit Harrell equally well with less than 10 points of separation in wOBAs just above .330 and an equal amount of HRs (18 for LHBs, 19 for RHBs). His one strength was limiting hard contact below 25% to all batters and a 57.8 GB% against RHBs. The Cubs have shuffled their lineup with Tommy La Stella (132 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP this season) a great leadoff bargain at the minimum cost on FanDuel, though twice that on DraftKings. A disappointing Jason Heyward (78 wRC+ vs RHP this season) drops down to sixth. The top five are a solid stack on either site, though with more value at lower costs on FanDuel. Bryant (141 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP career) and Rizzo (154 wRC+, .268 ISO since 2015) are both top overall bats bumped up a spot in the lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, Tommy La Stella, Lucas Harrell Indians implied run total has increased to 5.0 runs
Ivan Nova is coming off his best all around start of the season allowing just 1 ER while striking out 7 Padres in 5.1 IP. He gets a much tougher matchup tonight against a formidable Indians offense (105 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .189 ISO vs RHP). Nova has actually pitched better than his 5.06 ERA implies, as he has a 3.97 SIERA, hovering around the league average. Nova’s troubles this season are stemming from an above average 33.7% Hard% and an uncanny 19.7% HR/FB. Nova is an extreme ground ball pitcher (55.5% GB%), so when he misses he is getting punished by opposing batters putting those balls in the seats. Nova is due for some positive regression and could actually be a viable SP2 option for his price on DraftKings. Just as Nova could be in consideration as an SP2, an Indians stack could be viable as well. If attacking Nova with bats, we are going to want to target Cleveland hitters with HR upside in hopes Nova’s HR/FB rate continues to not regress. Carlos Santana (144 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .293 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (117 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .206 ISO vs RHP) are the top overall Indians options batting at the top of the order. Everyone’s favorite 8-hole hitter, Tyler Naquin (155 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .254 ISO vs RHP), is great way to differentiate Indians stacks in tournaments and just continues to rake. Let’s keep the #FreeTylerNaquin drum pounding.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin, Ivan Nova Mets offense has a 151 wRC+, 15.8 K%, and 21.4 HR/FB over the last week
Lucas Giolito snuck through his first start also against these Mets just before they got hot. He lasted four innings and struck out just one and may also be treated carefully tonight, although he’s gone seven innings in a couple of minor league starts this year. He’s a tremendous talent, but hasn’t exactly dominated AA with a 12.1 K-BB% this season and 13.9 K-BB% last year. This Mets offense has just a 15.8 K% and 21.4 HR/FB with a 151 wRC+ over the last week. Every player with more than 10 plate appearances in tonight’s lineup has a 120+ wRC+ over the last week and only Granderson (25%) have a hard hit rate less than 33%. Giolito’s issues have been more of control as he’s only allowed four HRs in 118 total innings at AA the last two years. You can make a case for stacking a red hot lineup against a rookie, but with just a 4.04 run projection and little information on the pitcher, this is going to be a tough spot to project and maybe worth fading.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson Bartolo Colon has the lowest SwStr rate in baseball (5.4%) and an 82.5 LOB%
Bartolo Colon has the lowest swinging strike rate in baseball (5.4%), but has kept his ERA well below his estimators with an 82.5 LOB%. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact (25.4 LD%, 36.9 Hard%) that somehow hasn’t come back to bite him yet. High priced Washington bats haven’t been very good vs RHP and with just a 3.96 run projection this might be a decent spot to fade or just consider middle of the order bats who have been good against RHP this year in Harper (134 wRC+, .226 ISO), Murphy (167 wRC+, .259 ISO) and Ramos (158 wRC+, .202 ISO).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Daniel Murphy, Bartolo Colon Hutchison had a 27.6 K% at AAA and pitched well in Toronto, but has a 4.92 career ERA
Drew Hutchison struck out 27.6% of batters in 87 AAA innings this season, but just the fact that he’s spent that much time in the minors after an awful season last year is a major concern. His big league peripherals rate about league average (13.8 K-BB%) over 400 innings and he actually pitched better at home (15.8 K-BB%, 3.58 ERA, 3.74 FIP career), but just was never able to put it all together with a career 4.92 ERA overall. LHBs and RHBs both have a wOBA just above .330 against him career with an equal hard hit rate just above 31%. Miguel Cabrera (161 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the obvious choice. Nick Castellanos has been surprisingly good against RHP this season (145 wRC+, .223 ISO) and costs just $3.6K on DraftKings. Steven Moya (111 wRC+, .255 ISO career vs RHP) is the value play for less than $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Nick Castellanos, Steven Moya, Drew Hutchison