DFS Alerts
Corey Kluber has at least six Ks in all but three starts this year
Corey Kluber has been one of the most consistent fantasy starters this season. He’s gone more than six innings 11 times this season and had at least six strikeouts in all except three starts. That’s a pretty high floor on most nights and tonight shouldn’t be different at the Yankees are the 2nd worst road offense in baseball (79 wRC+) where their 27.1% hard hit rate against RHP won’t fly out of the park nearly as often as it does at home. An 18.5 K% vs RHP might cut into his upside a bit, but shouldn’t be enough to stop him from getting the job done. Kluber may not be the top pitcher on a star studded board, but he’s up there and likely to be worth more than his cost. Yankee bats have not been very impressive on the road or vs RHP this year and are of little interest against one of the top pitchers in the AL tonight.
Noah Syndergaard is the only pitcher with a 30+K% and 50+GB%
Noah Syndergaard had no issue with bone chips in his last start. He fired seven innings of one run balls against the Cubs with eight strikeouts, averaging his normal 98 mph. He is just one of five pitchers with a strikeout rate above 30% (he’s facing one of the others tonight) and is third in baseball with a 26.9 K-BB%. He’s the only one of those five pitchers with a ground ball rate above 50% too (52.9%). Since May 31st though, he has a 47.2 GB% with an 18.3 Hard-Soft%, but his SwStr has been above 14% in each of those starts too. One of tonight’s top two pitchers, Syndergaard may be the top value on DraftKings as just the 6th most expensive pitcher ($10.8K). Contrarian players may want to keep Harper (137 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP this season) and Murphy (165 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP this season), who always seems to homer off Cy Young contenders lately, on their boards at reduced prices.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy Chad Green has struck out 14 of 46 batters with a 19.9 K-BB% at AAA this year too
Chad Green is an interesting case at a low price tonight. Cleveand is the best home offense in baseball (123 wRC+), but Green has a 28.3 K-BB% in just 11 innings against weak offenses. He also has a 19.9 K-BB% in 81.2 AAA innings this year. Players looking for a cheap secondary option with upside (which is likely most players tonight on DraftKings) could consider Green. However, just a few LHBs have hit him very hard so far (.486 wOBA, 53.9 Hard%). It’s not nearly a large enough sample to base much on, but a strong offense at home projected for 4.5 runs can still be on players’ radars, though this pitcher is still mostly an unknown. Tyler Naquin continues to bat low in the order at a low price, but continues to punish baseballs (163 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP). Carlos Santana (145 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP this season) joins him in RH punishment at the top of the order, while Jason Kipnis has a 140 wRC+ with a .185 ISO vs RHP since last season. In fact, Jose Ramirez has the lowest ISO vs RHP this season in the lineup at .143.
Other tagged players: Tyler Naquin, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez Cubs RHBs in a good spot to take advantage of Liriano and his 13.6% BB%
Francisco Liriano has posted his lowest strikeout rate (21.0% K%) since 2011 and the highest walk rate (13.6% BB%) of his career so far this season. He takes on a Cubs offense tonight that walks a ton (10.8% BB%) and hits LHP extremely well (119 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .201 ISO). Liriano has struggled the most with RHBs (5.09 xFIP, .367 wOBA, 4.5% K-BB%) making the Cubs righties the ideal targets in this matchup. The sole negative for Cubs right handed batters is that they are travelling to PNC Park which really suppresses right handed power. Kris Bryant (162 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .367 ISO vs RHP) and Ben Zobrist (137 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .169 ISO vs LHP) are the top options batting at the top of the order. Javier Baez (183 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .276 ISO vs LHP) is batting seventh but makes for a nice mid-tier play at 2B in tournaments. Wilson Contreas (171 wRC+, .429 wOBA, .227 ISO vs LHP) has an extremely small sample size in the majors but can be considered at the always barren catcher position.
Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Francisco Liriano
Strasburg walked four, struck out just five in return from DL and Mets have a 179 wRC+ over the last week
Strasburg walked four, struck out just five in return from DL. While it’s likely just rust and he’s one of only five pitchers this season (three going today) with a strikeout rate above 30% and has the 5th highest K-BB (24.1%), we also have to consider that he’s facing the hottest lineup in baseball. The Mets have a team 179 wRC+ over the last week with a 5.4 K-BB% and 25.3 HR/FB. The top seven batters in the order tonight all have a wRC+ of 125 or better over this span and no batter with at least 30 PAs has a wRC+ below 96 for the season vs RHP. Cespedes and Granderson add ISOs above .230. They are also teh only two bats above $3K. Strasburg is still probably a top five or six overall pitcher tonight and may be worth his high cost, but there are reasons for caution and an incredibly cheap Mets stack might get you two high priced pitchers along with the hottest offense in baseball.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson The Red Sox have a 122 wRC+ at home, 120 wRC+ vs RHP and 172 wRC+ over the last week
Chris Archer has at least seven strikeouts in five of his last six and that upside may have to be considered for just $6.8K on DraftKings if rostering a pitcher from the top of the board, but he has been terrible on the road with a 14.0 K-BB% and 3.98 xFIP, but a 6.65 ERA and 23.9 HR/FB. In other words, while we could expect him to improve, he walks into the lion’s den tonight against a Boston offense with a 122 wRC+ at home, 120 wRC+ vs RHP and 172 wRC+ over the last seven days. While batters from either side still have a wOBA below .300 against him since last season, both are right around .330 this year and a few Red Sox bats have some very impressive numbers against him. David Ortiz (14 batted balls) and Mookie Betts (12 batted balls) each have two HRs against him career and an aEV just above 96 mph since last season. Ortiz (204 wRC+, .382 ISO vs RHP this season) had six extra base hits total in the matchup and is a top overall First Base bat tonight. The top four with Jackie Bradley Jr. all have a wRC+ above 120 vs RHP this season. The other three eligible batters tonight (exempting Hill) may all be below average hitters vs RHP this season, but each has a wRC+ above 190 over the last week. There are no soft spots in a lineup projected to score five runs tonight, though a Boston stack would be tough to fit with a higher priced pitcher.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Chris Archer Arrieta has 4.1% K-BB% in his last three starts
Arrieta has struggled with his control (15.1% BB%) and ability to strike batters out (19.2% K%) in his past three starts. The lack of strikeouts and control has not been fluky either as Arrieta has posted a 5.52 SIERA and only a 7.8% SwStr% through those same three starts. Until we see some improvement from Arrieta, he can be avoided in all formats. On a slate with as many pitcher and hitter options as tonight, we can safely cross this game off from consideration in cash games and mostly from tournaments. If multi-entering tournaments (10+ lineups) tonight, there could be merit to throwing a dart with Arrieta in one or two lineups.
As reported by: FanGraphs Orioles have seven bats tonight with a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO or better vs RHP this year
Matt Shoemaker is pitching on the road for the fifth time in seven starts and after taking his first beating in a long time in Boston last night, he’s struck out either six or seven in each of his three previous road starts. He’s pitched much better at home since this monstrous run started, ironically against the Orioles, but has still been good on the road and the upside potential of a 13.9 SwStr% this season makes him an interesting cheaper option on a high priced board full of All Stars, especially on two pitcher sites. If not using him though, consider that the top eight Baltimore batters all have a 110 wRC+ or better against RHP both this year and since last season with only Hyun Soo Kim (156 wRC+, .144 ISO) carrying an ISO less than .200. Kim, costing just $2.6K on FanDuel is still a top value play there because you’re likely paying up for pitching and Shoemaker does have a 26.5 LD%.
Other tagged players: Hyun-Soo Kim Jose Fernandez leads the majors with a 37.0 K% and is second with a 29.1 K-BB%
Jose Fernandez leads the majors with a 37.0 K% and is second with a 29.1 K-BB%. Contact management has been more average, but when only 55% of the batters you face are making it, that tends to be not much of a big deal. He has failed to strike out at least seven just three times and never less than five. He was pounded in Atlanta in his last start, including two HRs, but only allowed 21.1% hard contact with eight strikeouts. He’s in a great spot at home against an offense with a 14.4 K-BB% on the road and 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP and has tonight’s highest upside and might be the top value pick on FanDuel as well, though there might be more of a question of affordability on DraftKings ($13.4K). There’s no interest in Cincinnati bats, though a cheap Joey Votto ($3.5K on DraftKings) still has a 142 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs RHP this season with a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. The Reds are projected for a slate low 2.47 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joey Votto James McCann (less than $3K) has a 141 wRC+ and .247 ISO vs LHP since 2015
J.A. Happ has increased his strikeout rate over the last month (24.6%), but still has a 3.54 ERA a run below his estimators as he remains a bit over-priced against a Detroit offense that goes entirely right-handed tonight. They haven’t excelled against LHP this year yet (103 wRC+), but do have a 9.7 BB% and a very dangerous bats along with one of the most notorious hitter’s umpires behind the plate tonight in Joe West. RHBs have just a .305 wOBA and 30.9 Hard% against Happ since last season, which may not be anything to write home about, but a few bats draw some attention tonight. From an overall standpoint, though a bit pricey, Kinsler (150 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP this season) and Castellanos (136 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Both have a wRC+ above 150 with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Looking for great value might lead you to James McCann (141 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2015) behind the plate on both sites for less than $3K, while the super-contrarian player might notice that for just $2.3K on DraftKings with many high priced pitchers, Justin Upton (90 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP this season) has two career HRs against Happ in just eight plate appearances.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Justin Upton, J.A. Happ, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos Realmuto hits leadoff against RHP Straily (34.2 Hard% vs RHP since 2015)
Dan Straily has stopped missing bats (15.6 K% last 30 days), but is still walking batters at a high rate and has allowed seven HR over his last eight starts. While batters from either side have a wOBA right around .300 against him since last season, RHBs have actually hit the ball harder (34.1% to 29.6%). This is undoubtedly the reason Don Mattingly chose to put Catcher J.T. Realmuto (131 wRC+ vs RHP this season) atop his lineup tonight. With a 213 wRC+ over the last week, he becomes an interesting option at a weak position tonight. Most of the Florida bats are looking at least formidable tonight in a decent spot at mostly reasonable prices. Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) separates himself in cost on DraftKings ($4.9K), but has begun punishing baseballs frequently again (249 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% last seven days). Yelich and Dietrich are the clubs top active hitters against RHP this year, both with a wRC+ a bit above 140 this year, though just average power numbers. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t been much more than league average against RHP (116 wRC+, .182 ISO) and can be part of stacks, but may not offer much individual value.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich, Dan Straily Start of tonight's ATL/CHC game will be delayed due to rain
The Braves-Cubs game will not be starting on time and is currently in a rain delay. Start time is still TBD. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide any updates if they become available before the game locks.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs Official Twitter Feed Padres have a 115 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .174 ISO vs LHP this season
Hyun-Jin Ryu is making his first start since 2014 tonight in a matchup against the Padres. Considering the price tag to roster Ryu, he is firmly out of of consideration as a starting pitcher option. The Padres are surprisingly one of the best offenses in baseball versus LHP and have been clicking on all cylinders recently (135 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .244 ISO last 7 days). With that said, Ryu and the Dodgers are getting some serious respect from Vegas as the Padres are only implied to score 3.2 runs. There’s so many spots to target offense tonight that it’s going to be tough to load up Padres bats. If deciding to go that route, Matt Kemp (166 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .354 ISO vs LHP) , Wil Myers (152 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP) and Melvin Upton Jr. (120 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .244 ISO vs LHP) are the top options to consider.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Melvin Upton, Hyun-Jin Ryu Drew Pomeranz has struck out at least six in six straight and the Dodgers have a 79 wRC+ vs LHP
Drew Pomeranz has struck out at least six in six straight starts and just as importantly, he’s walked only two over his last three starts, nearly dropping his walk rate to single digits (10.1%). He has the sixth best strikeout rate (28.3%) in baseball. The Dodgers have just a 79 wRC+ vs LHP this season. The risk you run is that control issues will run up his pitch count, as he’s gone five or fewer innings in six of 16 starts, but that’s been less frequent lately. Pomeranz is a top arm maybe a bit behind Rich Hill tonight. With a wOBA below .290 allowed to batters from either side and a hard hit rate below 28%, Dodger bats are not on our radar tonight with the possible exception of Trayce Thompson (131 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for salary relief for $3K on a night without many usable cheap bats.
Other tagged players: Trayce Thompson Adam Morgan (0.87 GB/FB, 15.7 HR/FB) faces tonight's top projected offense (7.17 runs)
Adam Morgan brings his 0.87 GB/FB and 15.7 HR/FB to Colorado tonight. The Rockies are, unsurprisingly tonight’s top projected offense (7.17 runs). RHBs have a .366 wOBA (35.7 Hard%) against him in his career, LHBs a lesser .317 wOBA (23.9 Hard%). Lefty-masher Ryan Raburn is not in the lineup tonight, but all four RHBs with an above average wRC+ vs LHP this year are high on our target board tonight. DJ LeMahieu (132 wRC+, .219 ISO) has actually been one of Colorado’s top two bats vs LHP this year along with Nolan Arenado (136 wRC+, .268 ISO). Trevor Story (102 wRC+, .218 ISO) is one of very few rosterable SS bats tonight. Nick Hundley (119 wRC+, .282 ISO) is likely the top value at Catcher for less than $4K on either site. There really are no unusable bats here, though Mark Reynolds has just a 63 wRC+ and .050 ISO vs LHP this season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Nick Hundley, Adam Morgan