DFS Alerts
Pirates at Cardinals will start in delay
The tarp is on the field – the plan is for the game to start at 1:15 pm CST weather permitting.
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals official Twitter feed
Potential for delay in St. Louis but game should play out
RG Meteorologist David Wolter thinks that while the game might start in a delay in St. Louis that there should be no problem playing it out. Heralded prospect Tyler Glasnow will be making his major league debut for the Pirates and gets a tough first match up against the Cardinals. His counterpart will be Adam Wainwright who has pitched much better over the last month (3.66 SIERA and nearly 25% K rate) and is a moderate (-138) favorite against the Pirates. Glasnow definitely has the upside and his price point makes him intriguing but it’s difficult to trust a pitcher in their ML debut, especially against a tough lineup. Wainwright is the top option on the small early only slate and is worth consideration in GPP’s in the all day slates. You can avoid the Pirates bats although John Jaso and Gregory Polanco might be worth utilizing as a one off in your lineups. The Cardinals are top three in the league against RHP in both wOBA and ISO. Greg Garcia is filling in for the injured Matt Carpenter and is leading off – he makes for an excellent play today. Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, and Matt Adams are all excellent options as well either as part of a team stack or by themselves.
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Adam Wainwright, Tyler Glasnow Rays one of best in league against LHP
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the best teams in all of baseball this season against LHP as they are 1st in team wOBA and 2nd in team ISO. Today they get to face struggling LHP Hector Santiago (who has allowed a .332 wOBA and 41 homers to RH bats the last two seasons) of the Angels and are a team to target in regards to hitters. Everyone in their starting lineup outside of LH bat Brad Miller has either >.350 wOBA or >.200 ISO against LHP. Logan Forsythe is the best of the group, leading off with a staggering .506 wOBA and .347 ISO. Evan Longoria, Steve Souza, and Brandon Guyer hit three through five and follow Forsythe closely. Those four are all great options and the three remaining RH bats (Nick Franklin, Tim Beckham, and Hank Conger) are value options if you want cheaper bottom of the order exposure. The Angels face promising prospect Blake Snell who has yet to find his groove in the big leagues. Mike Trout, as usual, is an elite option with Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, and C.J. Cron secondary options.
As reported by: Eric Kay on Twitter Other tagged players: Mike Trout Jorge De La Rosa has a 2.25 ERA since returning to the starting rotation despite a 5.43 SIERA
If we dig deep into the advanced stats of De La Rosa in his last four starts, we will find some concerning numbers, specifically a 1.0% K-BB%. De La Rosa has also been extremely lucky posting a .235 BABIP and 93.8% LOB. This means De La Rosa has gotten extremely lucky and the success he’s had is going to be entirely unsustainable. The Giants don’t exactly crush LHP (102 wRC+, .317 wOBA, .145 ISO), but they definitely have a few bats we can target in this matchup. Buster Posey (160 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .233 ISO vs LHP) is the top option in the Giants lineup batting cleanup. Brandon Belt (147 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .238 ISO vs LHP) is going to fly under the radar at a loaded 1B position but hits LHP very well. Grant Green gets the bump up to the two-hole and is in consideration due to his platoon advantage and minimum salary at a scarce 2B position.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Grant Green, Jorge De La Rosa
Pirates are tied for the third-lowest implied run total on the slate (3.8)
The Pirates are pretty much an average offense as a whole versus LHP (107 wRC+, .328 wOBA, .152 ISO) but do strikeout at an above average clip (24.2% K%). Jaime Garcia (3.97 SIERA) doesn’t have massive strikeout upside (19.7% K%) but is competent enough to take advantage of this Pirates lineup. Garcia is taking on a Pirates lineup filled with righties but it may not be the worst thing given the outstanding 61.2% GB% Garcia has versus RHB. With Garcia being an extreme ground ball pitcher, this is a situation where we want to stack or fade the Pirates offense as Garcia is unlikely to give up home runs in bunches. The Pirate hitters to stack in tournaments would be David Freese (161 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .233 ISO vs LHP), Jordy Mercer (155 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .210 ISO vs LHP), Jung Ho Kang (117 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .283 ISO vs LHP), and Sean Rodriguez (143 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .184 ISO vs LHP)
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jordy Mercer, Jung-Ho Kang, Sean Rodriguez, Jaime Garcia Cueto has gone more than six innings in 13 of 17 starts and Rockies have a 30 K% and 39 wRC+ over last week
Johnny Cueto has gone more than six innings in 13 of 17 starts. HR regression was expected and he’s allowed three in his last two starts. He’s now up to a 6.5 HR/FB and probably has a bit more to go, but a rocky last two outings may be keeping his cost reasonable in a great matchup at home against the Rockies tonight. While Cueto’s 24.3 K% over the last month lacks a strong SwStr rate (8.1%) to go with it, the Rockies strike out 23.7% on the road and have struck out 30% of the time with a 39 team wRC+ over the last week. Cueto is one of tonight’s top two pitchers in the best spot. He should and likely will be on many daily fantasy rosters tonight.
Stephen Piscotty has a 189 wRC+ and .253 ISO vs LHP this season
Jeff Locke has struck out three or fewer in eight straight starts and has a 4.5 K-BB% on the season. Both left and right-handed batters have a .326 wOBA against him since last season, but LHBs have a much lower 18.6 Hard% (RHBs 31.3 Hard%). This really only takes the 8th place hitter off the board. Matt Carpenter (118 wRC+, .204 ISO since last season) hits lefties well, but carries a high cost tonight, as does Aledmys Diaz (101 wRC+, .149 ISO vs LHP) batting 2nd. Stephen Piscotty (189 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP this season) is your top play here and might be the top value in the lineup at $3.5K on FanDuel, while Matt Holliday (97 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP this season) has a 100 mph aEV on his four most recent batted balls against Locke, but all RHBs are playable here.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, Jeff Locke Two games with low delay risk in Kevin's evening report
Two of tonight’s games have a low risk of delay potential and probably not enough to consider moving off a pitcher. It’s mentioned only because Jaime Garcia and Michael Pineda are pitching in games Kevin has labelled Yellow. Both are probably on many DFS players’ radars tonight, but the good news is that he doesn’t see a major interruption as being likely. Read his full report on our Weather Page linked below.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Miller has a .367 BABIP, 59.5% LOB% in three starts since returning from the DL
Miller (5.39 SIERA, 4.0% K-BB%) has pitched much better since being activated from the disabled list, even though it hasn’t really shown in the results of his past three starts (6.27 ERA). Some signs of hope for a turnaround from Miller come from a 3.64 xFIP and a 13.6% K-BB% over his past three starts while inducing a substantially higher amount of soft contact (27.4% Hard%). On sites where Miller is less expensive, he could make for a very interesting tournament play given the plus matchup against the Padres (80 wRC+, .288 wOBA, .146 wOBA vs RHP) that strikeout at a 24.0% clip versus RHP. With that said, there is definitely no reason to entirely write-off Padres bats if deciding to avoid rostering Miller. Wil Myers (137 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP) is expensive on DraftKings but makes for a great contrarian play in tournaments since the masses are unlikely to pay up for him. Yangervis Solarte (119 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP) and Travis Jankowski (117 wRC+, .342 wOBA vs RHP) are the other options to consider if targeting the Padres offense on this slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Travis Jankowski Jake Lamb has a 64.3 Hard over the last week, LHBs have a 36 Hard% vs Rea since 2015
Colin Rea has struck out 18 of his last 72 batters, but hasn’t had a SwStr rate above 7.3% in any of those three starts. Even with that, he has just an 8.8 K-BB% on the season and while facing a mediocre offense, he does so in a tough run scoring environment with a terrible defense behind him. While both left and right handed batters have a wOBA just above .310 against him since last season, LHBs have a much higher 36 Hard%. As one of three offenses with a run projection exceeding five today (5.16), players should be looking at all three LHBs and Goldschmidt (147 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Jake Lamb (168 wRC+, .348 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 255 wRC+ and 64.3 Hard% over the last week. He’s one of tonight’s top overall bats. Chris Herrmann (108 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP this season) and Michael Bourn (198 wRC+ last seven days) are both a tremendous bargain on FanDuel at $2.2K each.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Herrmann, Michael Bourn, Colin Rea Carlos Beltran has a 97 mph aEV (seven batted balls) and four extra-base hits against Miguel Gonzalez
After facing a lefty last night, the Yankees are back to their LH lineup tonight against Miguel Gonzalez, who has a 3.0 K-BB% over his last four starts. LHBs have a .347 wOBA against him since last season, but his 31 HRs since last season have been split evenly. While there are no must haves or great values in this lineup, Carlos Beltran (125 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 97 mph aEV against Gonzalez on seven batted balls with a HR and four extra-base hits. Brian McCann (107 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 238 wRC+ over the last week and is a pretty solid Catcher play against a pitcher who has allowed at least 24 HRs in under 175 innings each of the last three years.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Miguel Gonzalez Michael Pineda had a 34.3 K% and 2.75 ERA, 2.56 FIP in June
Michael Pineda had one hell of a June (34.3 K%, 2.75 ERA, 2.56 FIP). The key was noticing that his hard contact had decreased (29.1%), while he still had a top five SwStr% in baseball (14.8%).. The White Sox have a 117 wRC+ over the last week, but are still a favorable spot for him. While they lean heavily right-handed and he’s allowed 10 of his 15 HRs to RHBs, he’s only allowed three HRs on the road. The top six bats in this lineup all have a wRC+ above 90 vs RHP this season, but none are above 103 (Cabrera). Todd Frazier (.223 ISO vs RHP) has the only ISO above .200.
Other tagged players: Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier Valbuena has a 168 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .467 ISO over the past week
Wade LeBlanc has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career (4.60 xFIP, .391 wOBA, 1.59 HR/9 vs LHB). LeBlanc (4.26 SIERA) has posted some decent results in his first two starts since being called up to the majors but has been running extremely lucky (.156 BABIP, 90.9% LOB%), as shown by an ERA almost three full runs below his estimators. Given the reverse splits of LeBlanc,we do not need to fully rule out the Astros left handed hitters. Luis Valbuena (104 wRC+, .331 wOBA, .170 ISO vs LHP) has been hot and gets the two-spot in the order tonight. Jose Altuve (163 wRC+, .417 wOBA, .205 ISO vs LHP) and George Springer (149 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .263 ISO vs LHP) are the other elite options in the Astros lineup making a 1-2-3 Astros mini-stack an extremely viable option. Evan Gattis (.253 ISO vs LHP) can be targeted as an upside catcher play in tournaments but gets an undesirable lineup spot tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Evan Gattis, Wade LeBlanc RHBs have a .337 wOBA and 36.7 Hard% vs reverse split Fiers since 2015
Mike Fiers has been a lot of changing and unpredictable things throughout his career, but one thing that has been pretty stable is a reverse platoon split the last two years (RHBs – .337 wOBA & 36.7 Hard%, LHBs – .295 wOBA, 32.5 Hard%). While the Astros understand this and are utilizing a lot of LHBs against a similar LHP on the other side of this matchup, the Mariners are sticking with tradition and have just three RHBs in this lineup. This makes Nelson Cruz (133 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) one of tonight’s top OF bats (160 wRC+, 55.6 Hard% last seven days) and Dae-Ho Lee (134 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP) an interesting value at First Base, but the remainder of the Seattle lineup lacks a bit in this spot. Red hot Kyle Seager (169 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP, 236 wRC+, 55 Hard% over the last week) still looks good for just $3.2K on FanDuel though.
Other tagged players: Mike Fiers, Kyle Seager, Dae-Ho Lee Kendrys Morales OUT against top ground ball generator in baseball (Stroman 59%)
Marcus Stroman hasn’t reached a strikeout rate that many thought might turn him into a star this season. It sits at just 16.6% and the contact has been a bit harder than you’d like (33.1 Hard%), pushing his BABIP over .300. Stroman is, however, the top ground ball generator in baseball (59%) and for $7K or less against a lineup with just a 9.4 HR/FB and their top power bat on the bench (Kendrys Morales) he’s a top value pitcher tonight. Stroman has kept the ball on the ground at an equally high rate against RH and LH bats, so there’s little advantage in attacking him, unless you want to take a chance that low cost leadoff man Alex Gordon (107 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2015) will have enough opportunities to get one through the infield and come around to score. LHBs do have a .348 wOBA against Stroman this year, based on a .326 BABIP and 8.3 BB%.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon