DFS Alerts
Robbie Grossman and Trevor Plouffe OUT of the lineup today, Twins are still tied for the highest implied run total on early slate (5.1)
Chi Chi Gonzalez (5.58 career SIERA) has been pretty awful so far through his first two seasons in the majors. Gonzalez has been equally bad against batters from both sides of the plate thus far in his career as well; 5.55 xFIP, 0.0% K-BB% versus RHB, 4.93 xFIP, -1.3% K-BB% versus LHB. The Twins have a semi-watered down lineup today but it hasn’t prevented their implied run total from continuing to increase. We can really look to any Twins batter in the top half of the lineup today. The top option for the price is Max Kepler (123 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .235 ISO vs RHP) who has the platoon and gets the fifth spot in the order. Eduardo Nunez (113 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .133 ISO vs RHP) and Joe Mauer (107 wRC+, .334 wOBA, 121 ISO vs RHP) are secondary options that be considered as Twins stack fillers. Miguel Sano (105 wRC+, .331 wOBA, .215 ISO vs RHP) just made his return from the DL yesterday and may still go under the radar, but he has massive power upside in this matchup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Chi Chi Gonzalez
Blue Jays implied run total has increased to 5.1 runs, highest on the early slate
Zach McAllister gets the nod today in place of Trevor Bauer after a 19-inning marathon yesterday in which Bauer threw 83 pitches in relief. This is a nice break for the Blue Jays seeing that McAllister is simply a much worse pitcher than Bauer. McAllister (4.22 SIERA) has pitched this entire season out of the bullpen for the Indians so we need to take his numbers with a grain of salt, but he has some alarming advanced stats (50.0% FB%, 39.2% Hard%) to go along with a high 10.6% BB%. A full Blue Jays stack may be the way to go in tournaments, epsecially on DraftKings where all the Blue Jays bats have nice value being priced to face Bauer. The top options to consider for a Blue Jays Stack are Josh Donaldson (144 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .284 ISO vs RHP), Michael Saunders (126 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .225 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (123 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .241 ISO vs RHP), Devon Travis (153 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .277 ISO vs RHP), and Troy Tulowitzki (113 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Michael Saunders, Edwin Encarnacion, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Zach McAllister Zach McAllister will start in place of Trevor Bauer Saturday afternoon
McAllister will be making his first start of the season in place of Bauer today. McAllister has pitched solely out of the bullpen this season and will likely be on a limited pitch count, although a pitch count hasn’t been confirmed as of yet. McAllister is only $4k on both sites but can be avoided since he is unlikely to pitch more than a few innings and has a tough matchup in the Blue Jays.
Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated, major problems in St. Louis (ORG/RED)
Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Denard Span a late scratch from Giants starting lineup; Gregor Blanco to lead off
Span was scratched from tonight’s lineup with a stiff neck. Blanco will slide into the lead off spot and play CF. Blanco (77 wRC+, .279 wOBA, .089 ISO) hasn’t hit RHP particularly well this season but is a viable option if in need of a Span replacement in Giants stacks. However, there are better OF options in his price range.
As reported by: Andrew Baggarly on Twitter Other tagged players: Gregor Blanco
Posey out of the lineup tonight, Parker bats fifth
Shelby Miller has shown signs of life recently but his overall numbers this season have been dreadful (5.49 SIERA, 3.4% K-BB%). A matchup at Chase Field against the Giants is not the spot we should look for him to get back on track. Not only do the Giants not strikeout a ton, Miller is allowing a ridiculous 35.5% Hard% which has resulted in an inflated 17.9% HR/FB rate. Buster Posey is out of the lineup but we can still look to a few Giants bats as potential plays. We can realistically target any of the Giants bats 1-5 but Jarrett Parker (174 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .200 ISO vs RHP) getting the lineup bump to fifth is the best value and in a great spot. Brandon Belt (153 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .207 ISO vs RHP) and Brandon Crawford (122 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .184 ISO vs RHP) are also great plays as they have the platoon and the power to provide substantial upside in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Shelby Miller, Buster Posey Manny Machado has a 179 wRC+ and .282 ISO vs LHP this season
In 452 major league innings, Wade LeBlanc has an ERA with estimators well above four. The Orioles have been hot (152 wRC+ last seven days), but are just average against LHP (97 wRC+). LeBlanc actually has a reverse platoon split in his career (.390 wOBA vs LHBs), but RHBs still hit him well enough (.322 wOBA). While most Baltimore bats have been just average against LHP this year, Manny Machado has a 179 wRC+ with a .282 ISO and Mark Trumbo has a 111 wRC+ with a .377 ISO vs LHP. Chris Davis (111 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP this season) is much cheaper on DraftKings, but more expensive on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Wade LeBlanc
Trevor Story OUT again as Bud Norris (24.6 K% in June) makes his Dodgers debut
Bud Norris had a 24.6 K% with a 58.2 GB% without a HR allowed in five June starts (plus one inning of relief). None of it’s likely to persist, especially the HR drought, but this is a guy who was booted to the bullpen in Atlanta at the end of April after allowing six HRs over his first five starts. He starts his Dodgers tenure against a Colorado team that has retained their power against RHP road (15.0 HR/FB on the road, 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but do suffer overall outside Coors (15.7 K-BB%). He makes for a great GPP play tonight for less than $7K. The Colorado lineup looks much thinner without Story, but LHBs are much better against Norris anyway (.379 wOBA and 40.4 Hard% since last season). Carlos Gonzalez (147 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP, 102 wRC+ on the road since 2015) is a bat players can still look to here. Daniel Descalso (175 wRC+ vs RHP this season) will suffer outside Coors, but may serve as a middle infield punt play for $2.1K on DraftKIngs.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Daniel Descalso Kevin Roth's Weather Report has been updated, problems brewing in Philly, New York, Boston
Check out the link below for a full breakdown on tonight’s games.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Eovaldi allowed 10 HRs with a 39 Hard% in June, but Padres have a 77 wRC+ and 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP
Nathan Eovaldi has been terrible in June (10 HRs, 39 Hard%), but despite a significant drop in K% last month, his 8.1 SwStr% wasn’t too bad and he still has a 13.5 K-BB% for the season. While better recently, the Padres still have a 77 wRC+ and 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP. Petco is still a pitcher’s park and Eovaldi has never had HR issues before. He could pay off a $5.4K price tag on DraftKings in a great spot. LHBs do have a .357 wOBA against him since last season (though we have to consider some of that is due to the short RF porch in Yankee Stadium), so players may still want to look at Yangervis Solarte (110 wRC+, .156 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $2.7K on FanDuel. He has a 181 wRC+ and 44.4 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte All seven Oakland RHBs have a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above 140 vs LHP since last season
Jeff Locke has struck out three or fewer in nine of his last 10. The A’s have just an 18.2 K% vs LHP with a 15.5 HR/FB. Although he hasn’t been pounded in all of his starts and Oakland is not a positive run scoring environment, the A’s have been hot (139 wRC+ last seven days) and have some proficient bats against LHP. Batters from both sides have a .327 wOBA against Locke since last season, though RHBs (31.3 Hard%) have hit him much harder than LHBs (18.9 Hard%). All RH bats are in play here as they all have a wRC+ above 100 since last season vs LHP with at least a league average ISO (143 or better). Lowrie has struggled this year, but gains value in the leadoff spot, especially for under $3K on FanDuel. Jake Smolinksi (160 wRC+, 286 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be the hidden value for just $2.7K on FanDuel, but runs the risk of being PH for more than other batters. Valencia (153 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Davis (106 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are the top, but most expensive bats. Marcus Semien (149 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has really turned into an unexpected lefty masher at a still affordable $3.3K on FanDuel. Oakland bats are a bit more expensive, but still reasonable on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Jake Smolinski, Jeff Locke Matt Garza has a 5.5% SwStr%, Cardinals are tied for 2nd highest implied run total (4.8)
There was a time where Garza (5.07 SIERA) was a good pitcher. Unfortunately, it is no longer that time. His strikeouts are way down (11.3% K%) and has surrendered a 34.5% Hard% in his first three starts of this season. Garza has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate so we can make a case for rostering any Cardinals bats in the top two-thirds of the order. The Cardinals have a 116 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .200 ISO versus RHP so they are in a great spot going against Garza. Matt Carpenter (178 wRC+, .435 wOBA, .317 ISO vs RHP) and Brandon Moss (179 wRC+, .438 wOBA, .421 ISO vs RHP) are the elite options in the Cardinals lineups and need to be included in any Cardinals stacks. Aledmys Diaz (152 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .233 ISO vs RHP) is priced up a bit but still is a great option at shortstop. Matt Adams (123 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top Cardinals options but on FanDuel, where we can’t roster Moss and Adams, we should do whatever we can to get up to Moss.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Moss, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Adams, Matt Garza Jaime Garcia has a 59.6 GB% vs RHBs this season, Brewers just an 11.8 HR/FB vs LHPs
Maybe one of the least expected stats you’ll see today is that despite Milwaukee’s perceived RH power, they have just an 11.8 HR/FB vs LHP, which is actually below league average this year (12.8 HR/FB). They do walk a ton (11.4%), but also strike out a lot (23.8%) vs LHP. Garcia has previously dominated them for a 13 strikeout one-hitter this year, but was more mediocre in his most recent outing against them. He has struck out six in each of his last two starts though after a stretch of six starts with four or fewer strikeouts. He also has the 6th best GB rate in baseball (56.2%) with just a 26.8 Hard%. With an expectation of so many weak ground balls, just six or seven strikeouts could make him one of tonight’s top pitching values for $8K. He’s actually kept RHBs on the ground 59.6% this season. There is no interest in Milwaukee bats that will have a tough time elevating in a difficult park tonight.
Johnny Cueto is the top priced pitcher tonight with a just an 18.8 K% and 7.1 SwStr% in June
Johnny Cueto is the top priced pitcher on either site tonight ($12.1K on DraftKings) and has only a league average 9.2 SwStr% with a 21.5 K% this season, dropping to a 7.1 SwStr% and 18.8 K% over the last month. He has a strong batted ball profile (52.4 GB%, 3.4 Hard-Soft%), but players are effectively paying for that and his new found league low 4.7 HR/FB in a dangerous park tonight. Cueto has a 9.7 career HR/FB more than double that. Arizona isn’t a good offense with a 92 wRC+ and strikeout rate above 23% both at home and vs RHP, but they do have a 16.7 HR/FB at home. While we nobody is suggesting attacking Cueto here, paying this much for a pitcher dependent on batted ball outcomes in a bad park is incredibly risky and worthy of fad consideration.
With the return of Sano, Twins have four batters with a 140+ wRC+ and .270+ ISO vs LHP this season
Martin Perez has just a 1.5 K-BB% this season. He generally keeps the ball on the ground, above 50% even against RHBs, though they have been able to put up a .339 wOBA against him since last year, including all nine HRs he’s allowed this season. With Minnesota’s 91 wRC+ vs LHP this season, players may not be looking their way, but the return of Miguel Sano (145 wRC+, .243 ISO vs LHP career) gives them four players (Dozier, Nunez, and Grossman) with a wRC+ above 140 and ISO above .270 vs LHP this season. Sano along with Dozier (204 wRC+, .375 ISO vs LHP this season) appear two of tonight’s top values and overall bats on FanDuel for just $3K. Dozier has a 375 wRC+ and 52.6 Hard% over the last week. These four make for a great cost saving stack on FanDuel and rate strongly on DraftKings as well.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Martin Perez