DFS Alerts

Wrap Around Stacks Could Pair Top Value Bats with Top Overall Ones

Pitching is deep and expensive tonight. It’s also high risk and fairly cheap. This is a slate with tons of possibilities. Players may need lots of value bats or they may not or maybe some combination of in between. The first place projections suggest they look is in Minnesota, where the Twins are facing Beau Brieske with a 4.65 run team total. Brieske seems the most obvious candidate to exit the rotation once some people start getting healthy. He’s produced just a 13.2 K% (6.4 SwStr%) through five starts, while also allowed 10 barrels (11.4%). A 5.13 ERA is more than a quarter run below all of his estimators (.210 BABIP). He has a massive reverse-split with RHBs over 100 points better against him, in fact, above .400 by wOBA and xwOBA. Nick Gordon (84 wRC+, .129 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Trevor Larnach (101 wRC+, .130 ISO) are both top of the board point per dollar projected values on either site, despite both batting from the LH side and near the bottom of the order because neither costs more than $2.3K on either site, making for an easier wrap around stack including Byron Buxton (153 wRC+, .342 ISO).

While the Twins are the only offense with multiple top 10 value bats, the great news is that several top offenses feature multiple top 10 projected values on one site or the other. On FanDuel, Pavin Smith (108 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP since LY) is projected to bat second against Jon Heasley (small sample .357 xwOBA for RHBs). Jake McCarthy (65 wRC+) should be a bit lower, but both cost $2.3K or less. Yankee stacks against Bruce Zimmermann (batters from either side of the plate at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) become a much easier fit with Gleyber Torres (122 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Aaron Hicks (122 wRC+, .210 ISO) for less than $3K behind Judge and Stanton.

DraftKings players can wrap around Luis Rengifo (62 wRC+ vs RHP since LY) and Andrew Velasquez (68 wRC+) at near minimum cost with Ohtani and Trout against Dane Dunning (batters from either side of the plate between a .322 to .342 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). The Mariners are another interesting and cheap lineup with the expected returns of Kyle Lewis (115 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Taylor Trammell (100 wRC+, .245 ISO) against James Kaprielian (LHBs .360 wOBA, .376 xwOBA since LY, RHBs below .280 though). No LH Seattle projected starter costs more than $4.1K on DraftKings or even reach $3K on FanDuel tonight.

Decent Arms Are Not Expected to Be Enough to Slow Down Top Bats

On a 12 game slate without Coors or really very many of the most positive run environments in the league at all and a strong pitching board, the Diamondbacks currently top the slate at five implied runs with the Yankees, Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Angels and Twins all not too far behind, all above a four and a half run team total. It should be no surprise then, that the three teams featuring multiple top 10 hitter projections via PlateIQ are the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels. If Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (205 wRC+, .372 ISO) are available on the slate, they are going to be top projected bats in all but the worst situations. This is no slight on Dane Dunning. Three of his last four starts have been Quality Starts with two runs or fewer. The Rangers are allowing him to pitch deeper into games and it hasn’t hurt the quality of his work at all (23.5 K%, 52.1 GB%, 87 mph EV. A 4.22 xERA is his only estimator both above four and his 3.92 ERA. However, batters from either side of the plate still range between a .322 to .342 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and we’re talking about two superstar MVP candidates in any given year in one of the more positive run environments on the board tonight.

Aaron Judge (168 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since LY) has been nearly beating teams single-handedly over the last month (262 wRC+). Bruce Zimmerann (batters from either side of the plate at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year) probably isn’t going to stop him. He was really sharp in the month of April, but has just a 14.4 K% in the month of May (four starts). This does not pair well with a 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV, generating 11.3% Barrels/BBE over this span as well. Overall, his 3.48 ERA is about a half run or more below non-FIP estimators, including an xERA and DRA above four and a half. Judge is the top projected batter on either site tonight, though not too far ahead of teammates Giancarlo Stanton (148 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (140 wRC+, .202 ISO).

Mookie Betts is expected to get the night off on Tuesday, so the Dodgers only have three batters represented among the top 10 projected. Although he allowed three runs, Josiah Gray just pitched his best game of the season in Miami, striking out seven of 25 batters with a home run and no walks. This put his walk rate in single digits (9.9%) and while the contact profile is still a major problem (23 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 14.8% Barrels/BBE), five of his nine home runs have come in just two starts. His 17 barrels are more spread out, though nine of those came in just two starts too. Bat missing (25.3 K%, 12.1 SwStr%) has never been the problem, but he doesn’t have an estimator below four and LHBs have pummeled him for a wOBA and xwOBA within a single point of .385 since being called up last year. RHBs have just a .315 wOBA (.295 xwOBA), but that doesn’t stop Trea Turner (121 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since last season) from being a top projected bat, along with Freddie Freeman (146 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Max Muncy (127 wRC+, .251 ISO). Muncy also doubles as the third best projected value on FanDuel ($3K).

High Upside, Great Matchups and Some Risk for Middle of the Board Pitching

Two middle of the board arms, whose PlateIQ projections really stand out, are Sonny Gray and Blake Snell. Both are highly volatile arms, who project well at lower prices and at least part of that is the expectation of a higher workload than they’ve managed so far this season, due to injuries. In Gray’s case, it may also be largely due to the matchup (Tigers 73 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP). He has struck out 25 of 87 batters with a 50.9 GB% this year, though with just a 9.7 SwStr%, 10.3 BB% and 11.3% Barrels/BBE. He has just 14 batted balls that aren’t barrels, popups or grounders through five starts. Regardless, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.48 ERA. Gray is the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings tonight ($6.8K).

Snell struck out five of 17 Phillies in his first start. He lasted just 3.2 innings, more due to performance than pitch count (84), walking three with his only barrel leaving the yard and just one-third of his contact on the ground. Despite all his problems last year (12.5 BB%, 11% Barrels/BBE) he still struck out 30.9% of batters, so that’s going to be there no matter what. He should be good for 90, which may only get him through five innings, but he could total double digit strikeouts in that time. The Brewers have just a 92 wRC+ and 22.9 K% vs LHP. Snell is the top projected value on FanDuel tonight ($6K).

George Kirby, James Kaprielian and Jordan Montgomery are also pitchers who cost less than $7.5K on either site and carry a top point per dollar projection. Kirby impressively struck out seven Rays without a walk in his major league debut, but has struggled in starts against the Mets and Red Sox since, striking out just four of 41 batters. He’s walked just two batters overall, but the contact profile has been a mess (93 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE). More than half his contact has had an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. Kirby ran a 29 K-BB% through five AAA starts before being called up and Fangraphs labels him a 55 Future Value grade (on a 20-80 scale). He may have the top matchup on the slate, hosting Oakland (72 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP) though.

Kaprielian has been all over the place in four starts. Twice he has walked more than he’s struck out (seven to three), but he’s struck out 13 with just three walks in his other two (both against the Twins). Altogether, he has yet to complete six innings with an unimpressive 7.9 K-BB% and 10% Barrels/BBE, despite 66% of his contact below a 95 mph EV. He threw over 100 innings with a 16.3 K-BB% last year, so perhaps he’ll eventually straighten things out, but for now, all estimators exceed his 4.50 ERA. The Mariners have a 111 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs RHP, but we can’t deny the negative run environment in Seattle.

Montgomery hasn’t struck out more than five in a start and is at just 19.3% for the year. However, everything else is optimistic, including a career high 13.9 SwStr% and 16.1 CStr% that’s right on his career average (15.9%) and the league average. Both his walk and barrel rates are just below five percent as well. Estimators are all above his 3.35 ERA, but only his DRA (4.24) is above four. The Orioles have a 78 wRC+ and 27 K% vs LHP.

Tuesday's Board is Loaded with Workhorses and Pitching Upside

Corbin Burnes is the only $10K pitcher on both sites on a fairly large 12 game slate, though Zac Gallen is more expensive than him on FanDuel with a $1.6K difference in price between sites. Chris Bassitt is also exactly $10K on FanDuel, but $400 less on DraftKings. Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Max Fried and Walker Buehler are all also $9K or above on both sites. Needless to say, this is a very healthy pitching board. Burnes is the top projected pitcher (PlateIQ) on either site tonight. While his 31.5 K% is five points behind Dylan Cease, his 17.9 SwStr% tops the board and he’s walked just five batters over his last seven starts. He’s also completed six innings in seven straight (six Quality Starts) with at least 95 pitches in all seven. All estimators are above his 2.26 ERA, but only his FIP (3.41) more than a run so with a 17.4 HR/FB that’s bound to regress. Eight of his 12 barrels (9.8%) have left the yard. The Padres have just an 89 wRC+ with a 22.5 K% vs RHP and San Diego is certainly a park upgrade for Burnes. This is a decent spot for a great pitcher on a board that might split ownership enough so that he won’t be overwhelmingly popular. For a lengthy analysis of all of tonight’s top arms, including the pitcher who tops the board with a strikeout rate five points higher than anyone else, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Kris Bryant (back) scratched Monday

Kris Bryant (back) scratched Monday.

Two Lineups Project to Smash the Slate Far More Often than Any Others

Separating themselves by nearly half a run from the rest of the board, the Dodgers are clearly expected to be the most popular stack on the board on DraftKings tonight, reaching above 15% ownership on there, while in an essential tie with the Yankees on FanDuel. Simulations see both offenses smashing the slate equally as often, around 16% of the time, more than five percentage points above any other stack. On DraftKings, the Athletics project as the top value stack over one-quarter of the time, far more than any other stack on either site with the Giants (on DK) and Tigers (on FD) also in double digits. For more on top rated stacks and how weather could alter those projections, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

West Coast Bats Project for Top Value

With the pitching board looking extremely thin beyond the top two arms tonight, players are likely paying top price for pitching needs and looking for value in their lineups. Current PlateIQ projections suggest Arizona may be the best place to look for that. The visiting Royals are the only team that places multiple batters within the top 10 point per dollar projections on both sites tonight. It had been suggested that some of Zach Davies’s early season success bore the influence of new pitching coach Brent Strom, but eight runs over his last 9.2 innings has cast doubt on some of that speculation. However, the contact profile remains strong (85.6 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE), generating a 3.82 xERA, but with just a 9.1 K-BB%, all other estimators are above four. Batters from either side of the plate range within a .349 to .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies since last season. Carlos Santana (74 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Kyle Isbel (113 wRC+, .137 ISO) are top projected values on both sites, joined by Andrew Benintendi (116 wRC+, .157 ISO) and MJ Melendez (38 wRC+, .086 ISO) on FD and Emmanuel Rivera (88 wRC+, .144 ISO) on DK.

It’s interesting that while half the Dodger lineup is among tonight’s top projected bats, several of them also project as top values on FanDuel. In fact, Max Muncy (128 wRC+, .253 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and the top projected value on FD. He’s joined by Cody Bellinger (73 wRC+, .182 ISO) and Gavin Lux (106 wRC+, .131 ISO), who all cost $3K or less. Rain may be a bigger obstacle to Los Angeles bats than Joan Adon (batters from either side of the plate above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA). Austin Slater (132 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Evan Longoria (167 wRC+, .278 ISO) are also top projected FanDuel values against David Peterson (RHBs .324 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since LY).

DraftKings projections believe Oakland is one of the better lineups to find value in, which creates a tricky situation since Marco Gonzales also tops the point per dollar pitcher projections on that site. None the less, he’s been an extremely barrel prone bat for a couple of years now and RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .340 against him since last year. Chad Pinder (124 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Ramon Laureano (141 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Kevin Smith (131 wRC+, .240 ISO) all cost $2.6K or less.

Three Offenses Dominate Projections on Monday Night

The Dodgers separate themselves from the rest of the board by nearly half a run at 5.43 implied runs, but the problem with that is that they’re going to see some rain in Washington. Kevin currently has the game coded as ORANGE/YELLOW, where a late start could mean disaster. Optimistically, we still have the Yankees, Twins and Astros right around the five run team total mark, but no other offenses on a 20 team board above four and a half. If we stretch it out to 12, the top projected batters on the slate (PlateIQ) is at least three-quarters full of Yankees, Dodgers and Astros.

Aaron Judge is the top projected bat on the board on either site (158 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since last season), even though Jordan Lyles has been a competent arm for the Orioles this year (3 QB last 4), even against the Yankees (four runs over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 48 with just two walks in Baltimore, though 3 HRs in NY on April 26th). With a 13.1 K-BB% and fairly decent contact profile (7% Barrels/BBE), a 4.31 xERA is his only estimator above four. Batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Lyles since last year and he’s likely to stick around to face most batters three times. He’s joined by Giancarlo Stanton (139 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (111 wRC+, .214 ISO) at the top of the board.

Should weather issues miraculously clear, half the Dodger lineup sits atop projections tonight. This group includes Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .205 ISO), Max Muncy (128 wRC+, .253 ISO), Trea Turner (121 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .235 ISO) against Joan Adon, who has just a 6.7 SwStr% with a 13.5 BB% (4.6 K-BB%), while allowing 13.4% Barrels/BBE. Things could be even worse than his 6.38 ERA, but just five of his 15 barrels have left the yard. A 4.78 DRA is his only estimator below five and batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. It should be noted though, that after walking five two starts back, Adon made some adjustments and didn’t walk a single batter for the first time all season last time out.

Triston McKenzie has still not been confirmed in Houston and has gone more than a week between starts. With a 24.1 K%, he’s kept the walk rate around league average (7.8%), but still has issues in his contact profile (92.3 mph EV, 30.8 GB%, 9.7% Barrels/BBE). He actually has a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .300 wOBA, .334 xwOBA since last year, LHBs .280 wOBA, .309 xwOBA) with Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Yordan Alvarez (153 wRC+, .293 ISO) projecting best against him.

All the Risk with Little of the Upside for Middle of the Board Arms

Looking towards the mid-range arms tonight, Alex Cobb projects as one of the better values on the board. A run of some tough luck (injury and BABIP) has him costing less than $8K in San Francisco agains the Mets. The matchup is certainly not in his favor (117 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP), but Cobb has been much better than the surface results suggest. A short IL trip and a couple of blow up starts have driven his ERA up to 5.61 over 25.2 innings, but the velocity spike from March has held, as he’s registered a 20.2 K-BB% to go with a dominant contact profile (69.4 GB%, 85.5 mph EV, 1.4% Barrels/BBE). Every single estimator is less than half his ERA, while his BABIP (.394) and strand rate (49.7%) have been outrageous. You rarely see a pitcher with a lower LOB% than GB%.

When we consider some high risk weather in Washington for Tyler Anderson (22.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%, 4.3 BB% over five starts), whose facing an offense with just a 17.3 K% vs LHP anyway, the middle of the board is otherwise somewhat empty. Triston McKenzie (not yet confirmed), Nick Martinez and Jose Berrios are all pitchers with issues in their contact profiles facing quality offenses. Of course, this just means a lot of players are going to find a way to pay up for Cole or Wheeler tonight because almost everyone else is either low upside or high risk without enough reward, but there are also some sub-$7K arms who project for decent value.

Marco Gonzales is currently the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and that’s almost entirely about cost ($5.3K) and matchup (A’s 94 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs LHP). Outside of three starts with multiple barrels allowed, Gonzales has allowed just three total in his other four. Even though this makes a contact profile with an 88 mph EV and 9.3% Barrels/BBE look a bit better, all estimators are still well more than a run and a half higher than his 3.08 ERA, as nine of his 22 runs are unearned with just a 4.7 K-BB%. Of course, you never know when one of those multiple barrel games are going to show up, but they have let him pitch fairly deep into games, hitting the 95 pitch mark in three of his last four starts.

Zack Greinke hasn’t struck out more than four in a start, but has only allowed more than two runs once outside Coors. Part of that is because every other aspect of his game remains intact with just a 2.2 BB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE. That being said, a 9.8% strikeout rate simply won’t cut it and a 3.4 HR/FB is still unsustainable even with changes to the ball and a power suppressing park. Consider a nearly two run gap between his FIP and xERA. In fact, he doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four and a half. However, a cost of just $4.8K on DraftKings for his return to Arizona (94 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP) may be too cheap. He currently projects as the second best DK value on the board among confirmed pitchers tonight.

The Orioles are fairly content to let Jordan Lyles eat up a lot of innings very marginally with the goal of saving some younger arms. He’s actually been quite good recently (3 QS last 4), all of those at home though, in a park that plays much more pitcher friendly. He’s allowed just four runs (three earned) over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 48 with just two walks against the Yankees in Baltimore, but was lit up for 3 home runs in New York on April 26th. With a 13.1 K-BB% and fairly decent contact profile (7% Barrels/BBE), a 4.31 xERA is his only estimator above four. As awful as this matchup looks (Yankees 118 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP), the workload may make Lyles viable for $5.8K on this slate and few others are likely to have the fortitude necessary to roster him.

Top Arms Separate Themselves from Rest of the Board on Monday

We start the week with a 10 game Monday night slate in which Gerrit Cole is the sole pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites. In fact, he’s more than $500 more expensive than any other pitcher on either site. Cole is also the top projected pitcher on the slate (PlateIQ). Though projections are fluid and can change, we probably shouldn’t expect this to. Cole has struck out at least nine in three of his last five starts, all five being Quality Starts, failing to record seventh inning outs in just one of those outings. He’s up to a 21.8 K-BB% on the season, but realize that five of his 12 walks came in bad start in Detroit or his walk rate would otherwise be elite. Estimators are very tightly packed around his 2.89 ERA, ranging from a 2.81 DRA to a 3.16 xERA. The Orioles have been about average against RHP (97 wRC+, 22.3 K%) and the lineup has lengthened with this weekend’s transactions (Mountcastle back, Rutschman up), but it’s certainly nothing Cole shouldn’t be able to handle. To read more about tonight’s top arms, including who makes for the best Cole pivot, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

J.D. Martinez scratched Sunday

J.D. Martinez scratched Sunday

The start of Tiger-Guardians on Sunday will be delayed due to rain

Game update: The start of Tiger-Guardians on Sunday will be delayed due to rain

Harrison Bader (illness) scratched Saturday

Harrison Bader (illness) scratched Saturday

Tigers-Guardians postponed Saturday due to inclement weather

Game update: Tigers-Guardians postponed Saturday due to inclement weather

The start of Diamondbacks-Cubs Saturday will be delayed due to rain

Game update: The start of Diamondbacks-Cubs Saturday will be delayed due to rain