DFS Alerts

Garlick Currently Tops the Value Menu Tonight

For those in search of value bats tonight, Kansas City appears to be a great place to look, as the visiting Twins are the only team to project multiple top 10 point per dollar values on both sites tonight. In fact, half of the top 10 point per dollar projections on DraftKings are made up of either Twins or Royals. Kyle Garlick (159 wRC+, .351 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is a top two projected value for the ridiculous price of $2K on either site tonight against Daniel Lynch, who has improved his strikeout rate five points to 22.5%, but is still allowing barrels and walks at a greater than 10% clip. A 13.1 SwStr% shows further upside, as he’s getting a top of chases (39.3%), despite throwing his pitches in the strike zone only 39.5% of the time. Regardless, RHBs have mauled him since last year’s call-up (.363 wOBA, .372 xwOBA) and the Twins are expected to bat entirely from that side tonight. Ryan Jeffers (99 wRC+, .174 ISO) on FD ($2.1K) and Gilberto Celestino (57 wRC+, .113 ISO) and Jose Miranda (57 wRC+, .250 ISO) on DK (< $2.3K) join Garlick as top projected values by PlateIQ tonight.

Kyle Isbel (48 wRC+, .074 ISO) and Carlos Santana (99 wRC+, .089 ISO) are batters PlateIQ currently values on DraftKings against Devin Smeltzer, who, in a small sample, has actually looked worse against same-handed (LH) batters since last season (.362 xwOBA). This certainly has more to do with low price tags against an inexperienced pitcher, as you can see from the overall lack of production from these hitters. No other team features multiple top 10 values on DraftKings tonight.

In addition to a pair of Twins, a pair of Red Sox show up among the top projected FanDuel values. Robbie Ray’s strikeouts and velocity have risen in recent starts, but he’s still struggling from a control and contact standpoint. Even including his Cy Young season last year, RHBs have been nearly average against him (.303 wOBA, .308 xwOBA) since 2021. Projections really like the $2.1K or less price tags of Bobby Dalbec (117 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Christian Arroyo (106 wRC+, .170 ISO) tonight. They could pair well with the recently flaming hot Trevor Story (139 wRC+, .314 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (118 wRC+, .200 ISO) tonight.

Mets-Rockies postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Mets-Rockies postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Weather Could Play a Big Part For Top Projected Hitters

The one thing to emphasize above all else on Friday night’s slate, especially when considering offense, is weather. And none of it is about rain. The two New York teams (Mets & Yankees) are the only teams above five implied runs tonight. The Mets (5.19) are at Coors tonight, but a snowstorm (yes…snow…near the end of May after it was 80 degrees there yesterday) puts this game in serious doubt. That would also wipe out the third highest run total on the board (Rockies 4.81). The Yankees (5.07) are pretty safe at home tonight against the White Sox, but this isn’t nearly the best run or power environment on the board (at least according to Weather Edge). Several parks get a double digit percentage increase in terms of runs, home runs or both, due to some extremely hitter friendly weather in spots like Philadelphia, Cleveland and more.

Currently, Aaron Judge (170 wRC+, .313 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the top projected batter on the board (PlateIQ). He doesn’t need the assist of heat and wind against Dallas Keuchel, who still generates a ton of weak ground balls (55.7 GB%, 87.4 mph EV), but with just a 0.8 K-BB% through seven starts. A 3.99 xERA is nearly a full run below his next lowest estimator (4.81 xFIP). RHBs have a .356 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him since last season. The red hot Giancarlo Stanton (145 wRC+, .232 ISO) joins Judge as a top of the board bat by projections tonight. Both exceed a 190 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days.

The Rockies, but not the Mets, both have two bats projected inside the top 10 tonight, both right-handed against Carlos Carrasco. Same-handed batters have a .349 wOBA against him since last year, though Carrasco has been much better than a mostly lost season in 2021. He has had a couple of blow ups with just a 21.1 K%, but the good news is that a 9.9 SwStr% is his season low with a 13% mark on the season suggesting more strikeouts should be coming. He’s walked just seven batters with the same amount of barrels allowed (5.7%). A 3.73 ERA is above all of his estimators, which could drop further with an increase in his strikeout rate. Projections favor Kris Bryant (115 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP since LY) and C.J. Cron (127 wRC+, .142 ISO) against him, while Brandon Nimmo (135 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the highest projected Met (in fact, top three on the board) against German Marquez (LHBs within a point of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA since last year). Remember though, this game is currently coded RED in Kevin’s forecast.

Only one other team currently features multiple batters with top 10 point projections and it’s probably not a surprise that it’s the Angels, despite a moderate 4.29 run team total. That’s because Shohei Ohtani (147 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Mike Trout (206 wRC+, .368 ISO) are nearly always top of the board projections even against an extreme ground baller like Paul Blackburn (3.5 BB%, 50.9 GB%, 3.7% Barrels/BBE), whose worst estimator is a 3.42 DRA. He also has a fairly large split by actual results (LHBs .350 wOBA, RHBs .291), though Statcast sees it much closer (LHBs .332 xwOBA, RHBs .321).

Top Value Projections in Pitcher Friendly Matchups

Covering some low cost (< $7K) SP2 potentials for DraftKings players…Aaron Civale is currently PlateIQ’s top point per dollar projection. How in the world is he registering a 9.85 ERA with a 15.6 K-BB%? A 91.9 mph EV and 13.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 24.7 GB% would be the answer. Estimators range widely…incredibly widely…from a 3.99 SIERA to a 7.75 DRA. The Tigers have a 73 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP and they’ve been even worse on the road (68 wRC+, 25.6 K%), but Weather Edge currently projects some extremely hitter friendly weather in Cleveland tonight.

Devin Smeltzer both walked and struck out two of 19 Guardians in his first start of the season. He now has 74.2 innings of major league work over four seasons with a 12.3 K-BB% and 38.4 GB%. He hasn’t allowed a single barrel over his last 26 batted balls, which covers all of his 2021 and 2022 major league work. He’s currently the third best projected point per dollar value for DraftKings tonight. The Royals have just a 90 wRC+ and 5.9 HR/FB vs LHP and are without the services of Sal Perez, but they don’t strike out a lot (18% vs LHP). At $5.1K though, Smeltzer is the cheapest pitcher on the board.

Tyler Wells has a high pitch count of 75 in his seven starts, over which he carries just a 16.2 K% with a single game high of four, accomplished twice this year. He’s walked just four batters, but a 3.56 xERA (87.7 mph EV) is his only estimator below four. Optimistically here, Camden has been playing as more of a pitcher’s park this year when the Yankees aren’t present, Wells costs less than $6K and the Rays strike out a ton (25.1% vs LHP).

High Upside, High Risk Rules the Mid-Range Arms on Friday

PlateIQ currently projects Luis Castillo as one of tonight’s top point per dollar play among mid-range arms or anyone costing more than $7K tonight on either site. His numbers through two starts are sub-par (at least for him) in every area. They include just seven strikeouts with four walks (39 batters faced), a 46.2 GB% and 91.9 mph EV. His velocity is down two mph as well. Projections expect regression though, so we may want to be careful here. Projections are also fluid throughout the day, so his could change, but the Blue Jays have just a 97 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs RHP this year and play in a controlled (retractable dome) neutral run environment. If we’re looking back beyond just this year’s two starts after coming off the IL though, Castillo could have a lot of upside at a low price.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is in a similar situation. He has walked just three of 53 batters with a 54.8 GB%, while all three of his barrels (7.1%) have left the yard. He’s also struck out only eight with a 92.2 mph EV. Estimators are about half his 9.00 ERA. However, he projects very well from a point per dollar standpoint on FanDuel for less than $7K at home against the Reds (65 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs LHP). He’s a more marginal play for nearly $2K more on DraftKings.

Last year, Robbie Ray finally realized his full potential and won a Cy Young by getting his walk and hard hit rates (mostly barrels) under control. Not only has he reverted to old ways, but over his first four starts, he failed to strike out more than five with significantly reduced velocity. The good news is that strikeouts and velocity are up over his last four (32.7%), but the walk rate (10.2%) and hard contact over that span are still problematic. While all estimators are below his 4.62 ERA this season, none by a full run. He has provided some value to the Mariners in terms of workload, competing six innings in six of his eight starts. Boston is another tough park against an offense that is beginning to hit (148 wRC+ last seven days), but they also have just a 79 wRC+, 23.4 K% and 4.1 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Ray may be too cheap at $8K on DraftKings. Nobody more expensive than him projects as a better point per dollar value currently.

Chase Silseth is actually the top point per dollar projection on FanDuel right now and this is simply based on cost ($6.4K – over $1K more on DK) and matchup. Silseth struck out four of 20 A’ with two walks, a 61.5 GB%, 85.6 mph EV and 11.1 SwStr% in his major league debut. Just a marginal prospect (35+ FV grade via Fantraphs), he generated a 30.3 K-BB% in 26 innings at AA before the call-up. The fact that the A’s have already seen him and recently does make him riskier, but its also the A’s (72 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP).

This Pitcher Has Made Major Improvements Since Being Traded

On a 12 game Friday night slate that includes two $10K pitchers on both sites and another that misses by a mere $100, Sean Manaea is the top projected arm on the board by PlateIQ. He struck out a season high 12 Braves in his last start, pushing his season rate up to 28.7% with the 13.4 SwStr% to justify it. He’s also produced a Quality Start six times in seven tries. With a 20.3 K-BB%, his 70.7 LOB% is low enough that all estimators are at least half a run below his 3.77 ERA. He’s been a great pickup for the Padres. Even with a potential weather boost for bats tonight, San Francisco should still play as a negative run environment, but it’s not an easy matchup by any stretch (Giants 108 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs LHP). It’ll be interesting to see where ownership projections end up on Manaea because he does seem to be the real deal and if enough players aren’t going to trust him in this spot against a good team at a price within $200 of $10K on either site, he may be a great play tonight. For more thoughts and analysis on tonight’s other three highly priced LHPs, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Reds-Guardians will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Reds-Guardians will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Michael A. Taylor scratched Wednesday

Michael A. Taylor scratched Wednesday

Cooper Hummel scratched Wednesday

Cooper Hummel scratched Wednesday

Which Teams Smash the Slate More Than 20% of the Time in Simulations?

With just a six game slate on DraftKings, both the Yankees and Cubs project for more than 20% stack ownership, a bit higher than the Blue Jays, who split the two in terms of team run totals because the former two lineups both include some cheaper bats to offset top projected hitters. Things are a bit more spread out on FanDuel (eight games), where the Yankees project to be most popular (14.2%). Both the Yankees and Jays are smashing the slate in simulations a bit more often than 20% of the time on either site with the Angels (at Texas with Dane Dunning) the only other team reaching double digits. Several teams reach double digit Value% projections on either site with the Blue Jays the only team reaching 20% on FanDuel. Expensive pitching may make top offenses great leverage plays as well. To find out which teams stand out in terms of potential leverage, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Where You Can Find Plenty of Value Among Top Offenses

Players should be in the market for value bats tonight, considering the price of pitching, and they may be able to find a few in one of the top lineups on the board. At least according to sportsbooks, who have installed the Cubs with a 4.42 implied run line that’s third best on the slate tonight. Conditions currently appears to be pitcher friendly (though not overwhelmingly so) with cool temperatures (below 60 degrees) and a light wind blowing in from left or maybe more across the field. We also aren’t sure who’ll be pitching for the Pirates. Wil Crowe will be starting, but is likely just an opener. Maybe for Mitch Keller? Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA since last year against the former. What we do know is that two Chicago Cubs project as top three point per dollar values on either site and that’s because neither Rafael Ortega (131 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since LY), nor Aflonso Rivas (140 wRC+, .160 ISO) cost more than $2.6K on either site tonight. This makes a top half of the order stack with top overall projected bats Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Willson Contreras (109 wRC+, .180 ISO) much easier to accomplish with room left over for pitching tonight. Happ ($3.8K) is actually a top 10 value projection on DraftKings, along with Frank Schwindel (115 wRC+, .182 ISO).

The only other team with multiple top 10 projected values by PlateIQ on DK tonight is the top of the board Yankees (4.75 implied runs). Adding Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Jose Trevino (73 wRC+, .114 ISO) at much cheaper costs might help out with those Judge, Rizzo, Stanton stacks against Jordan Lyles (batters from either side of the plate above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA since last year).

On FanDuel, a couple of Pirates on the other side of that Wrigely matchup project as top values, despite their paltry 3.58 run team total. The Cubs have Drew Smyly throwing cutters and sinkers for more than half of his offerings this year and now he’s a ground ball pitcher (52%) and an 11.3 SwStr% that casts doubt on his 16.7 K%. However, batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA of at least .335 against him since last year. Ben Gamel (73 wRC+, .096 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Bryan Reynolds (130 wRC+, .158 ISO) are within $200 of $2.5K on FD.

Top Bats Should Get Several Shots Against Innings Eater

An eight or six game main slate featuring a loaded pitching board finds the Yankees atop the board at 4.75 implied runs with the Toronto Blue Jays (4.62) the only other offense above four and a half. There is no doubt this is a pitcher’s slate. Mike Trout (206 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is tonight’s top projected batter by PlateIQ, in Texas, against Dane Dunning (batters from either side between a .319 to .339 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year). The rest of the top 10 on either side is littered with Yankees and Blue Jays. Aaron Judge (157 wRC+, .264 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (112 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (141 wRC+, .255 ISO) are all top seven projected bats against Jordan Lyles, whom the Orioles are content to just let eat innings in another go nowhere season. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in six straight starts. Sometimes that even leads to quality starts (he has two of them) with a below average, but not terrible 10.4 K-BB% and 90.1 mph EV (8.1% Barrels/BBE). His 4.38 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with none dipping below four. Since last season, batters from either side are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA. Unless he gets unloaded upon, which would be great news for your Yankee stacks anyway, batters are likely to see him three times tonight.

The top of the Toronto order, which projects to include George Springer (157 wRC+, .270 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (141 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (192 wRC+, .343 ISO), also project as top 10 bats tonight against the very mashable Marco Gonzales. But he has a 3.38 ERA, you say? It’s simply that nine of his 21 runs have been unearned. With just a 6.2 K-BB%, 90.2 Z-Contact%, 46.6 Z-O-Swing% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE a 4.83 xFIP is his lowest estimator. RHBs have a .340 wOBA with an xwOBA one point higher against him since last year.

You may think there is no room for any other team to place multiple bats among the top 10 projections with all those Blue Jays and Yankees, but the Cubs sneak a couple in the back end as well. They are third on the board with a 4.42 team run total with projections favoring Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Willson Contreras (109 wRC+, .180 ISO). There are two potential issues here though. One, is that the weather currently appears to be pitcher friendly (though not overwhelmingly so) with cool temperatures (below 60 degrees) and a light wind blowing in from left or maybe more across the field. We also aren’t sure who’s going to be pitching for the Pirates. Wil Crowe will be starting, but is likely just an opener. Maybe for Mitch Keller? Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA since last year against the former.

Changes in Pitch Usage Have Made This Lefty a Ground Ball Pitcher

As opposed to previous days this week, paying up for pitching seems nearly mandatory tonight, but GPP players may want to differ and some may also be in the market for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings. Covering the first part (FD) first, three sub-$8K pitchers appear as top four point per dollar projected values by PlateIQ tonight with very little separation between them. All of Josiah Gray’s rookie season problems have followed him into 2022. With five home runs over his last two starts, he’s up to a 16.3 HR/FB with only eight of his 15 barrels (15.3%) leaving the yard, while he’s still carrying a double digit walk rate (11.5%). Even with the 24.8 K%, a 4.26 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.34 ERA. The positive here is a substantial park upgrade, but the Marlins have a 128 wRC+ at home and 117 wRC+ (21.3 K%) vs RHP. Gray is purely a high risk upside play only available on FanDuel.

Jordan Hicks has worked his way up to 77 pitches in his fifth start, although he’s carrying just an 8.0 K-BB% since being inserted into the rotation. The 58.7 GB% is still the biggest value to his team. For some unknown reason, DRA loves him (3.35), but he doesn’t have another estimator below four. The Mets have a 117 wRC+ and 18.7 K% vs RHP. Hicks is cheap and in a great park, but weather may be more hitter friendly than it’s been so far this season tonight.

The Cubs have Drew Smyly throwing cutters and sinkers for more than half of his offerings this year and now he’s a ground ball pitcher (52%). If you’re discouraged at the potential cost being a 16.7 K%, an 11.3 SwStr% strongly suggests that won’t be the case for long. He’s also generated just an 84.3 mph EV and 4.8 BB%. While all estimators are above his 3.64 ERA, only his FIP is above four (15.6 HR/FB), but a rise in his strikeout rate could drop them into the lower threes. Have the Cubs created a new pitcher? Smyly currently projects for the most value of any confirmed sub-$8K pitcher on DraftKings, hosting the Pirates (82 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs LHP). Conditions at Wrigley also appear to be pitcher friendly tonight. Smyly could be very interesting in your SP2 spot.

Loaded Pitching Board Includes Several $10+ Pitchers on Wednesday

Wednesday night’s main slate, which is just six games on DraftKings and eight on FanDuel, offers a much more attractive pitching board than Tuesday’s, including six $10K pitchers! Within $100 of $10.5K on either site, Max Scherzer is the most expensive DraftKings arm by $500. He’s also tonight’s top projected pitcher by PlateiQ, though just barely above Gerrit Cole and this is subject to change. Scherzer may be getting a little more barrel prone in his later years (10% of contact this year), but still has all the strikeouts (32.5%) with very few walks (6.5%) and continues to pitch deep into games. A 3.03 FIP is his only estimator above three. He pitches in a great park where the ball has been going nowhere in night games this year, but with more marginal weather and the wind blowing out tonight, these may be the most hitter friendly conditions we’ve seen for a night game at Citi Field this year, while the Cardinals have just a 19.7 K% vs RHP (100 wRC+). Expect Scherzer’s talent to win out, but there may be enough ammunition to come in under-weight if we expect he’s going to appear in too many lineups tonight. For more on tonight’s loaded pitching board, including who might break the slate, check out Wednesday’s PliateIQ Live Blog.

Ketel Marte scratched Tuesday

Ketel Marte scratched Tuesday