DFS Alerts

Kris Bryant (back) scratched Monday

Kris Bryant (back) scratched Monday.

Two Lineups Project to Smash the Slate Far More Often than Any Others

Separating themselves by nearly half a run from the rest of the board, the Dodgers are clearly expected to be the most popular stack on the board on DraftKings tonight, reaching above 15% ownership on there, while in an essential tie with the Yankees on FanDuel. Simulations see both offenses smashing the slate equally as often, around 16% of the time, more than five percentage points above any other stack. On DraftKings, the Athletics project as the top value stack over one-quarter of the time, far more than any other stack on either site with the Giants (on DK) and Tigers (on FD) also in double digits. For more on top rated stacks and how weather could alter those projections, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

West Coast Bats Project for Top Value

With the pitching board looking extremely thin beyond the top two arms tonight, players are likely paying top price for pitching needs and looking for value in their lineups. Current PlateIQ projections suggest Arizona may be the best place to look for that. The visiting Royals are the only team that places multiple batters within the top 10 point per dollar projections on both sites tonight. It had been suggested that some of Zach Davies’s early season success bore the influence of new pitching coach Brent Strom, but eight runs over his last 9.2 innings has cast doubt on some of that speculation. However, the contact profile remains strong (85.6 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE), generating a 3.82 xERA, but with just a 9.1 K-BB%, all other estimators are above four. Batters from either side of the plate range within a .349 to .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies since last season. Carlos Santana (74 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Kyle Isbel (113 wRC+, .137 ISO) are top projected values on both sites, joined by Andrew Benintendi (116 wRC+, .157 ISO) and MJ Melendez (38 wRC+, .086 ISO) on FD and Emmanuel Rivera (88 wRC+, .144 ISO) on DK.

It’s interesting that while half the Dodger lineup is among tonight’s top projected bats, several of them also project as top values on FanDuel. In fact, Max Muncy (128 wRC+, .253 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and the top projected value on FD. He’s joined by Cody Bellinger (73 wRC+, .182 ISO) and Gavin Lux (106 wRC+, .131 ISO), who all cost $3K or less. Rain may be a bigger obstacle to Los Angeles bats than Joan Adon (batters from either side of the plate above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA). Austin Slater (132 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Evan Longoria (167 wRC+, .278 ISO) are also top projected FanDuel values against David Peterson (RHBs .324 wOBA, .361 xwOBA since LY).

DraftKings projections believe Oakland is one of the better lineups to find value in, which creates a tricky situation since Marco Gonzales also tops the point per dollar pitcher projections on that site. None the less, he’s been an extremely barrel prone bat for a couple of years now and RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .340 against him since last year. Chad Pinder (124 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Ramon Laureano (141 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Kevin Smith (131 wRC+, .240 ISO) all cost $2.6K or less.

Three Offenses Dominate Projections on Monday Night

The Dodgers separate themselves from the rest of the board by nearly half a run at 5.43 implied runs, but the problem with that is that they’re going to see some rain in Washington. Kevin currently has the game coded as ORANGE/YELLOW, where a late start could mean disaster. Optimistically, we still have the Yankees, Twins and Astros right around the five run team total mark, but no other offenses on a 20 team board above four and a half. If we stretch it out to 12, the top projected batters on the slate (PlateIQ) is at least three-quarters full of Yankees, Dodgers and Astros.

Aaron Judge is the top projected bat on the board on either site (158 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since last season), even though Jordan Lyles has been a competent arm for the Orioles this year (3 QB last 4), even against the Yankees (four runs over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 48 with just two walks in Baltimore, though 3 HRs in NY on April 26th). With a 13.1 K-BB% and fairly decent contact profile (7% Barrels/BBE), a 4.31 xERA is his only estimator above four. Batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Lyles since last year and he’s likely to stick around to face most batters three times. He’s joined by Giancarlo Stanton (139 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (111 wRC+, .214 ISO) at the top of the board.

Should weather issues miraculously clear, half the Dodger lineup sits atop projections tonight. This group includes Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .205 ISO), Max Muncy (128 wRC+, .253 ISO), Trea Turner (121 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Mookie Betts (138 wRC+, .235 ISO) against Joan Adon, who has just a 6.7 SwStr% with a 13.5 BB% (4.6 K-BB%), while allowing 13.4% Barrels/BBE. Things could be even worse than his 6.38 ERA, but just five of his 15 barrels have left the yard. A 4.78 DRA is his only estimator below five and batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him. It should be noted though, that after walking five two starts back, Adon made some adjustments and didn’t walk a single batter for the first time all season last time out.

Triston McKenzie has still not been confirmed in Houston and has gone more than a week between starts. With a 24.1 K%, he’s kept the walk rate around league average (7.8%), but still has issues in his contact profile (92.3 mph EV, 30.8 GB%, 9.7% Barrels/BBE). He actually has a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .300 wOBA, .334 xwOBA since last year, LHBs .280 wOBA, .309 xwOBA) with Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Yordan Alvarez (153 wRC+, .293 ISO) projecting best against him.

All the Risk with Little of the Upside for Middle of the Board Arms

Looking towards the mid-range arms tonight, Alex Cobb projects as one of the better values on the board. A run of some tough luck (injury and BABIP) has him costing less than $8K in San Francisco agains the Mets. The matchup is certainly not in his favor (117 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP), but Cobb has been much better than the surface results suggest. A short IL trip and a couple of blow up starts have driven his ERA up to 5.61 over 25.2 innings, but the velocity spike from March has held, as he’s registered a 20.2 K-BB% to go with a dominant contact profile (69.4 GB%, 85.5 mph EV, 1.4% Barrels/BBE). Every single estimator is less than half his ERA, while his BABIP (.394) and strand rate (49.7%) have been outrageous. You rarely see a pitcher with a lower LOB% than GB%.

When we consider some high risk weather in Washington for Tyler Anderson (22.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%, 4.3 BB% over five starts), whose facing an offense with just a 17.3 K% vs LHP anyway, the middle of the board is otherwise somewhat empty. Triston McKenzie (not yet confirmed), Nick Martinez and Jose Berrios are all pitchers with issues in their contact profiles facing quality offenses. Of course, this just means a lot of players are going to find a way to pay up for Cole or Wheeler tonight because almost everyone else is either low upside or high risk without enough reward, but there are also some sub-$7K arms who project for decent value.

Marco Gonzales is currently the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and that’s almost entirely about cost ($5.3K) and matchup (A’s 94 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs LHP). Outside of three starts with multiple barrels allowed, Gonzales has allowed just three total in his other four. Even though this makes a contact profile with an 88 mph EV and 9.3% Barrels/BBE look a bit better, all estimators are still well more than a run and a half higher than his 3.08 ERA, as nine of his 22 runs are unearned with just a 4.7 K-BB%. Of course, you never know when one of those multiple barrel games are going to show up, but they have let him pitch fairly deep into games, hitting the 95 pitch mark in three of his last four starts.

Zack Greinke hasn’t struck out more than four in a start, but has only allowed more than two runs once outside Coors. Part of that is because every other aspect of his game remains intact with just a 2.2 BB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE. That being said, a 9.8% strikeout rate simply won’t cut it and a 3.4 HR/FB is still unsustainable even with changes to the ball and a power suppressing park. Consider a nearly two run gap between his FIP and xERA. In fact, he doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four and a half. However, a cost of just $4.8K on DraftKings for his return to Arizona (94 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP) may be too cheap. He currently projects as the second best DK value on the board among confirmed pitchers tonight.

The Orioles are fairly content to let Jordan Lyles eat up a lot of innings very marginally with the goal of saving some younger arms. He’s actually been quite good recently (3 QS last 4), all of those at home though, in a park that plays much more pitcher friendly. He’s allowed just four runs (three earned) over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 48 with just two walks against the Yankees in Baltimore, but was lit up for 3 home runs in New York on April 26th. With a 13.1 K-BB% and fairly decent contact profile (7% Barrels/BBE), a 4.31 xERA is his only estimator above four. As awful as this matchup looks (Yankees 118 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP), the workload may make Lyles viable for $5.8K on this slate and few others are likely to have the fortitude necessary to roster him.

Top Arms Separate Themselves from Rest of the Board on Monday

We start the week with a 10 game Monday night slate in which Gerrit Cole is the sole pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites. In fact, he’s more than $500 more expensive than any other pitcher on either site. Cole is also the top projected pitcher on the slate (PlateIQ). Though projections are fluid and can change, we probably shouldn’t expect this to. Cole has struck out at least nine in three of his last five starts, all five being Quality Starts, failing to record seventh inning outs in just one of those outings. He’s up to a 21.8 K-BB% on the season, but realize that five of his 12 walks came in bad start in Detroit or his walk rate would otherwise be elite. Estimators are very tightly packed around his 2.89 ERA, ranging from a 2.81 DRA to a 3.16 xERA. The Orioles have been about average against RHP (97 wRC+, 22.3 K%) and the lineup has lengthened with this weekend’s transactions (Mountcastle back, Rutschman up), but it’s certainly nothing Cole shouldn’t be able to handle. To read more about tonight’s top arms, including who makes for the best Cole pivot, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

J.D. Martinez scratched Sunday

J.D. Martinez scratched Sunday

The start of Tiger-Guardians on Sunday will be delayed due to rain

Game update: The start of Tiger-Guardians on Sunday will be delayed due to rain

Harrison Bader (illness) scratched Saturday

Harrison Bader (illness) scratched Saturday

Tigers-Guardians postponed Saturday due to inclement weather

Game update: Tigers-Guardians postponed Saturday due to inclement weather

The start of Diamondbacks-Cubs Saturday will be delayed due to rain

Game update: The start of Diamondbacks-Cubs Saturday will be delayed due to rain

Yoan Moncada (leg) scratched Saturday

Yoan Moncada (leg) scratched Saturday

White Sox-Yankees postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: White Sox-Yankees postponed Friday due to inclement weather

One Team Stands Out in Terms of Stacking Ownership & Smash% w/ Coors Gone

Eliminating Coors so early from the slate could have chaotic effects, but to be quite honest, weather conditions around the majors already suggested that a few other parks could have played pretty closely to Coors anyway tonight. After losing two of the top three team run totals tonight (Mets & Rockies), the Yankees are now the only offenses expected to be stacked in more than 10% of lineups on either site tonight, as they are also the only team simulated to smash the slate more than 10% as well, though Blue Jays come close in their home matchup against Luis Castillo, who has looked less than stellar in two starts off the IL. On what is now an 11 game slate, no single stack projects for double digit value on FanDuel, though both Oakland and Minnesota get there on DraftKings against a pair of young pitchers in Chase Silseth (second major league start, first was also against the A’s) and Twins (against Daniel Lynch). To find out what high powered offense projects for the top Leverage Rating tonight, check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Weather Could Significantly Enhance Offense in this Park

We absolutely can not begin our conversation about offense tonight without mentioning a couple of extreme patterns showing up on Weather Edge, particularly in Philadelphia and Cleveland. With the much larger sample (144 games), a temperature of 78 degrees and winds blowing out just under 10 mph to left field in Philadelphia, run scoring generally sees a 14.7% jump, while home runs experience a 23.3% increase. Considering there are two lefties, who have not lived up to loftier expectations, facing a ton of right-handed power in this game, we could be in store for some insanity here, despite batters from either site being below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate since last year. Trea Turner (183 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP since last season) is a particularly attractive bat at a particularly high price, while Rhys Hoskins (146 wRC+, .325 ISO) is expected to lead off for the home team. To find out where else conditions could significantly boost offense, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.