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The Surprising Stack Projected to Smash the Slate on Thursday

With the Dodgers with a team run line almost a full run ahead of the rest of the pack, it may be strange that current projections don’t expect them to be the lineup stacked most often in lineups tonight. With the Twins carrying the second highest team implied run line (4.53) and being fairly cheap against a marginal lefty (RHBs career .362 wOBA against Daniel Lynch), we probably shouldn’t be surprised that they are projected to be stacked most often. In fact, they’re the only stack currently projected for double digit ownership on FanDuel (though projections are fluid and subject to change). Perhaps the larger surprise is that neither one of those teams smash the slate most often in simulations. That honor actually belongs to the Rockies against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .383 wOBA, .386 xwOBA since LY)…on the road. Cheap Oakland (against Martin Perez) and Detroit (against Konnor Pilkington) bats are overwhelmingly projected as the top value stacks on DraftKings, while the Tigers (20.9%) are the only team with a value projection above 12.5% on FanDuel right now. For more on what all these means in terms of Leverage Ratings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Spice Up Your Lineups With Some Garlick

The Twins have a 4.53 implied run line that’s second best on the board. They are also facing a LHP. When the Twins face a LHP, Kyle Garlick is generally projected to bat somewhere in the top half of the lineup. This year, he’s been hitting cleanup against southpaws. Kyle Garlick smashes LHP (167 wRC+, .342 ISO). That is his job. In fact, that really is his only job. Being on the short end of a platoon keeps his price low. Entirely too low. Kyle Garlick costs $2.5K or less on either site. Kyle Garlick is the top projected value by PlateIQ on DraftKings tonight. Spice up your lineup with some Garlick. Jose Miranda (71 wRC+, .222 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings against Daniel Lynch (RHBs > .360 wOBA and xwOBA career). He’s currently the third best projected value on DK. Ryan Jeffers (98 wRC+, .174 ISO) is actually a better projected value than either on FanDuel ($2.1K).

DraftKings projections also find nearly half the Oakland lineup among the top 10 projected values. Martin Perez has allowed nine earned runs (13 total) over 49.1 innings, partially because he hasn’t allowed a home run yet, but he’s also allowed only four barrels (2.9%) with a 55.8 GB% and career high 13.6 K-BB%. The Rangers are also letting him go. Perez has six straight Quality Starts, failing to record a seventh inning out in just one of his last five. The home runs are going to come. Some of them at least, but his worst estimator is still just a 3.70 SIERA. That said, RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .340 against him since last season and Oakland bats are incredibly cheap on DraftKings. None of Jed Lowrie (92 wRC+ vs LHP since LY), Elvis Andrus (51 wRC+), Kevin Smith (135 wRC+, .222 ISO) or Chad Pinder (123 wRC+, .223 ISO) cost more than $2.5K. You may not be wrong to have some skepticism about this matchup after Perez just shut out the Astros, but projections are generally regressing to the much larger and longer picture.

FanDuel has multiple Red Sox among the top projected values. Bobby Dalbec (115 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Christian Arroyo (99 wRC+, .165 ISO) are projected to bat near the bottom of the lineup against Dallas Keuchel (batters from either side above a .350 wOBA against since last year), so perhaps a wrap-around or more creative stack is in order. Keuchel is still generating ground balls on more than half of contact, so players definitely want to stack, rather than pick out individual bats here because he’s also walked more batters than he’s struck out.

Projections on both sites also favor a pair of Tigers against rookie southpaw spot starter Konnor Pilkington. FanDuel gravitates towards middle of the order bats like Javier Baez (143 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Jeimer Candelario (104 wRC+, .267 ISO) for $2.5K or less as great potential values. DraftKings favors Daz Cameron (47 wRC+) along with Candelario, also $2.5K or less.

This Offense Generally Projects Very Well Against LHP

A surprisingly large either nine or 10 game Thursday night slate also only features one offense clearly above four and a half implied runs. The Dodgers (5.47 team total) separate themselves from the board by nearly a full run. That said, while the Dodgers aren’t the only team to feature multiple top 10 projected bats by Plate IQ tonight, they are one of just two offenses to do so and perhaps it’s a surprise that the Dodgers only feature two. Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the third best projected hitter on the board with Trea Turner (122 wRC+, .161 ISO) just a bit further down. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .325 wOBA against Humberto Castellanos since last season, LHBs (.345) have a much larger advantage than RHBs (.302) by xwOBA. Castellanos doesn’t miss a lot of bats (17.4 K%, 8.3 SwStr%), but has otherwise been fairly effective under new pitching coach Brent Strom (6.0 BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE). While his 3.87 xERA is the only estimator below four, he doesn’t have one above four and a half either. In other words, he may be slightly under-valued here for those considering a Dodger fade.

The Twins are second on the board with a 4.53 team run total. While it looked early on that Daniel Lynch might be evolving, recent struggles now present a pitcher with just a 10.7 K-BB%, 91.2 mph EV and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. While seven of his 10 barrels have come in just two starts, so have 14 of his 31 strikeouts and eight of his 15 walks, although not all in the same starts. It seems you never know what you’re going to get when Lynch takes the mound. The overall package right now is a 4.01 ERA that nearly matches his 4.00 xERA with all additional estimators more than one-third of a run higher. The Twins have the ability to and are expected to line up entirely right-handed against Lynch because batters from that side have a wOBA and xwOBA above .360 against him in his short career. Byron Buxton (187 wRC+, .357 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the top projected bat on the board on Thursday. Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .155 ISO) is also among the top 10. As usual when the Twins face a marginal LHP, there will be more discussion of their lineup among the top projected values as well.

One other interesting quirk among the top projected bats is that the Angels only feature Mike Trout (213 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season) against Hyun-Jin Ryu (RHBs .327 wOBA, .332 xwOBA since LY). Ryu was at his best in his first COVID abbreviated season in Toronto, but injuries have slowed him down since. He’s started just four games this year, striking out 11 of 76 batters with a 92.6 mph Ev and a 45.9 GB% that would be his lowest since 2017. The elite control is still intact, as he’s walked just three and only one over his last three starts. Estimators are all more than a run below his 6.00 ERA, but also all above four. It is a rarity that Shohei Ohtani doesn’t join Trout among the top projected batters, but that’s not because Ryu is left-handed, but because Ohtani is pitching and not available as a hitter. However, Taylor Ward (168 wRC+, .174 ISO) has crushed the ball over the last 30 days with a wRC+ even higher than Trout over that span (241 to 211).

Tonight's Top Projected Pitchers Cost Less Than $9K

Players should be comfortable paying down for pitching tonight because most of tonight’s most expensive arms are in difficult matchups or may simply be over-priced, but not too far down because all three of tonight’s top projected arms can be had for less than $9K on at least one major site tonight. Tonight’s top three projected pitchers by PlateIQ (projections subject to change) are Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani and Frankie Montas in that order, but without much of a gap. Where the fairly sizeable gap exists is between those three and the rest of the board. Unsurprisingly, this also makes these three pitchers pretty strongly projected point per dollar values too. Especially on DraftKings, where they are the three top projected values costing more than the minimum tonight. Nola and Montas are the top projected values costing more than $6K on FanDuel tonight too. For much more concerning tonight’s top projected pitching values, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Difficult Matchups For Tonight's Most Expensive Arms

Eric Lauer is the lone $10K pitcher on both sites tonight on an oddly sizeable Thursday night slate with either 9 or 10 games. Nestor Cortes is $10.3K on the only site he’s available on and Tarik Skubal breaches $10K on FanDuel, while missing by $300 on DraftKings. Kyle Wright is the only other pitcher on the slate who reaches $9K on both sites. Lauer is now a flame-throwing, power pitching stud, whose 32.9 K% is second best on the slate. He hasn’t struck out fewer than five in any start and has thrown Quality Starts with no more than a single earned run five of his last six times out. He’s also walked only 4.9% of batters. All this makes his 10.1% Barrels/BBE much easier to absorb. Even with seven of them leaving the park (15.9 HR/FB), his worst estimator is a 3.36 FIP. A predominantly right-handed St Louis lineup has absolutely pummeled LHP this year (147 wRC+, 19 K%), which is likely the biggest reason why Lauer is currently not even a top five projected pitcher tonight (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change), despite the substantial park upgrade.

Cortes’s 10.2 SwStr% does not support a 32.4 K%, nor is his 18.8 CStr% particularly elite, so we have to take even his estimators with a grain of salt. That said, he does get a park upgrade, but the Rays strikeout much less against LHP (18.9% with a 108 wRC+). This game is only available on FanDuel, but Cortes is just the fourth best projected pitcher.

Skubal has made significant changes to his pitch usage, achieving the accomplishment of cutting down on his home runs and barrels (5.1%) with more ground balls (48.3%), while not really hurting his strikeout rate (28.4%). He’s also nearly cut his walk rate in half (4.5%). The overall result so far is that he doesn’t have an estimator higher than a 2.77 SIERA and DRA. The Guardians have been much worse against LHP (82 wRC+), but are still fairly contact prone (20.9 K%). Even with just a 76 team wRC+ over the last seven days overall, they have just a 20 K%. Low opposing strikeout rates are probably why Skubal projects outside the top three. Skubal also has some weather concern in the early forecast.

Wright continues to cement himself as a top of the rotation arm with each start this season, most recently coming off five shutout innings in Miami (six strikeouts). His 21.1 K-BB% is more than double his career rate (9.9%), while five of his eight outings have been Quality Starts and his 50.9 GB% is nearly five points above his career rate as well (46%). His 2.49 ERA is below all estimators that still only range as high as a 3.12 xERA. There’s some weather risk in Atlanta, which is firmly a positive run environment, while the Phillies have a 101 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs RHP. Wright projects just behind Skubal tonight. The most interesting thing about all this is that we haven’t even talked about any of the top three projected pitchers on either site tonight, which means they can all be head for less than $9K on at least one site.

The start of Red Sox-White Sox will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Red Sox-White Sox will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Ronald Acuna Jr. (quad) scratched Wednesday

Ronald Acuna Jr. (quad) scratched Wednesday

A Contact Prone Pitcher May Help This Offense Smash the Slate

With two extra games, the Angels are projected to be the most popular stack on either site, but only with a 13.9% ownership on FanDuel, as opposed to nearly 20% of lineups on DraftKings with only 10 teams to choose from. In fact, despite no other stack expected to exceed 11.5% ownership on FD, the White Sox and Astros join the Angels above 15% projected ownership on DK. Simulations are even a bit more interesting as neither of the two teams that reach five implied runs (Angels, Braves) smash the slate most often. The Astros (4.95 team run line) due so in 16.2% of simulations on DraftKings, while the Reds (4.92) smash most often on FanDuel (12.6%), the only site where they are available. The Orioles and Rangers are projected as the top value stacks on DK, while the Reds are a bit ahead of the Rangers on FD. To find out which top offenses are the top rated stack tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Despite Injuries, This Lineup Still Mashes LHP

The biggest reason to seek out value bats on a poor pitching slate is so that you can afford premium bats in the other half of your lineup. There are two fairly clear spots that PlateIQ projections suggest players should look for these hitters. Only two teams feature multiple top 10 point per dollar projected batters tonight and both teams are available on both slates. Perhaps a wrap-around stack with Tyler Wade (80 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and Andrew Velazquez (63 wRC+) for $2.5K on DraftKings helps players more easily roster Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .288 ISO) and Mike Trout (204 wRC+, .446 ISO) against Glenn Otto (batters from both sides above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year). Luis Rengifo (133 wRC+ last 30 days) also costs less than $3K on either site. Ohtani, himself, pops up as a strong value, just outside the top 10 on FanDuel ($3.9K).

Not a lot has gone right for the White Sox offensively this season, but they still mash LHP (126 wRC+, 15.1 HR/FB) and that may still be true even without Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup still includes just one batter below a 100 wRC+ and three below a .188 ISO against southpaws since last season. Rich Hill is coming off his worst start of the season (four runs over just two innings) right after the Rays allowed him to go six innings and face a season high (by far) 25 batters. The overall body of work has been fairly marginal (12.0 K-BB%). The contact profile includes just a 34 GB%, but 87 mph EV and 19 IFFB%. His 3.90 ERA nearly matches his 3.89 xERA exactly, though all other non-FIP estimators (7.1 HR/FB) are higher. RHBs have a nearly matching .333 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against him since 2021 and the White Sox are expected to line up entirely from that side. However, due to cost, it’s not the same batters who project for great value against Hill and a Boston bullpen with a 4.43 FIP over the last 30 days. Yasmani Grandal (170 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Josh Harrison (100 wRC+, .105 ISO) each cost less than $2.5K on FanDuel tonight. Adam Engel (101 wRC+, .200 ISO) fits the same price range on DraftKings, while Adam Pollock (132 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs slightly more ($3.2K), but is projected to bat third tonight.

Injuries Beginning to Take Toll on One Top Offense

Including all seven games on the FanDuel slate tonight, four teams top the board with implied run lines between 4.9 to 5.1 without any other of the 10 teams reaching above a 4.2 run team total at this point in time. Three of the four teams (Angels, Braves, Astros) are available on both site with the Reds only offered on FanDuel. With the Angels on top of the board (5.1), there’s no doubt who the top two projected bats are tonight. The lack of high priced pitching means you’ll probably be able to afford Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (204 wRC+, .364 ISO) too. Impressive work that included a 15+ K-BB% at every stop above A ball got Glen Otto noticed enough to start six games last year, in which he produced an 18.0 K-BB%, where a .423 BABIP and 45.9 LOB% ruined his debut season. His five starts this year have been entirely a mess (4.6 K-BB%) with estimators suggesting he deserves his 5.55 ERA, if not something worse. He’s failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three straight starts. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career with LHBs above .400. Perhaps the only surprise is that more Angels don’t appear among the top projected bats tonight by PlateIQ.

One surprise may be that Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since LY) is the only Yankee among the top 10 projected bats on either site, even a five game slate on DraftKings, but injuries (and COVID) are starting to hit this lineup fairly hard and maybe that enhances the prospects of a low priced Tyler Wells tonight, but also makes for a cheaper Yankee lineup. Besides the Angels, the Astros (4.95) are the only other lineup with multiple to top projected batters on both sites. Cal Quantrill has completed six innings in five straight starts with four Quality Starts, but with just a 7.9 K-BB% over that span and a 15.1 K% (7.3 SwStr%) on the year that probably isn’t going to cut it that much longer. While nothing else in his profile is really atrocious, there are no areas where he excels enough to comfortably carry that strikeout rate. All non-FIP estimators (6.1 HR/FB) are at least a run above his 3.48 ERA. It’s actually RHBs (.299 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) that have hit Quantrill a bit better than LHBs (.289 wOBA, .310 xwOBA) since last year, though Houston bats hit pitchers from either side of the plate just as well. Yordan Alvarez (151 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .229 ISO) are your top projected Astros.

The Reds (4.92) are the only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. Kyle Hendricks has allowed at least four runs in four of his nine starts, but only even as many as two in one of his remaining five. With three or fewer strikeouts in five of his last six starts, an 8.5 K-BB% on the season has been doing him in without anything friendly in his contact profile (35.7 GB%, 9.0% Barrels/BBE). His best estimator is a 4.67 SIERA. He has a pretty massive split too with LHBs within two points of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since 2021 and RHBs within two points of .315. Projections really like Joey Votto (147 wRC+, .314 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (125 wRC+, .236 ISO) against him on FanDuel tonight, although conditions (weather, umpire) may not be as hitter friendly as usual in Cincinnati.

That leaves Atlanta as the team which projections seem to be least in sync with sports books on. Ronald Acuna Jr. (178 wRC+, .325 ISO) is the only top 10 projected bat against Ranger Suarez in Atlanta tonight, despite a predominantly RH lineup. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season and Suarez seems to be getting it going recently with a 26.9 K% over his last three starts and a 50.4 GB% (86.4 mph EV) on the year. Atlanta may also play more pitcher friendly tonight with the wind blowing in along with a threat of rain.

This Moderately Priced Pitcher Has Improved with Each Start

From a point per dollar perspective (PlateIQ projections), Lucas Giolito still appears to be the man on DraftKings, currently projected for exactly two points per $1K of salary. No other pitcher on the slate who has actually started a major league game this season is projected for more value, though he’s only the fifth best projected value for $500 more on FanDuel. Only available on FanDuel, Luis Castillo projects as the top value, among those with at least one major league start this year. With the velocity slowly ticking back up with each start, Castillo is coming off his best of three efforts, allowing just two runs to the Blue Jays over six innings, striking out five of 25 without a walk and 13 ground balls. He has a nearly league average 12.5 K-BB% with a 54.3 GB%, but 91.7 mph EV. The exit velocity is the only thing that hasn’t improved with each start. That said, he doesn’t have a single estimator above four and the Cubs should increase his strikeout rate tonight (25.4% vs RHP). The park itself is more problematic, but conditions (weather, umpire) seem to be more pitcher friendly tonight. Which other middle to lower end of the board pitchers are standing out tonight? Check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Tigers-Twins will be delayed until 2pm ET on Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Tigers-Twins will be delayed until 2pm ET on Wednesday due to rain

Who Wins When the Top Pitcher Faces Off Against the Hottest Offense?

FanDuel offers seven games on their main slate, starting a bit earlier tonight, while DraftKings will remain at the regular start time with five. Lucas Giolito carries the only $10K price tag on the board tonight on FanDuel ($10.3K) and is $500 cheaper on DraftKings. No other pitcher even exceeds $9K on both sites, though Cristian Javier does so on DraftKings ($9.3K), where Charlie Morton also costs exactly $9K. Giolito is the clear top pitcher on the board by cost, by point projection (PlateIQ) and by ownership projection. He’s even a top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and currently expected to be in more than half of DK lineups. His work includes a 34.6 K%, though a 20.7 HR/FB pushes his FIP up to 3.83 and 11.1% Barrels/BBE his xERA up to 3.69. Six of his eight barrels have left the yard. Contact neutral estimators are actually below his 2.84 ERA. The Red Sox are on fire with a league leading 181 wRC+ and matching strikeout and HR/FB rates at 19.2% over the last week. They strike out only 20.4% of the time with a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but Giolito is a tough fade tonight. The weather and possibly the umpiring may be in his favor as well with wind blowing in from right around 10 mph.

With about one-third of his work coming out of the bullpen plus four starts, Javier has struck out 31.5% of batters faced, which makes the rest of his profile (8.1 BB%, 29 GB%, 11.1% Barrels/BBE) much more palatable. All estimators are above his 2.87 ERA, but only a 3.45 xFIP by more than half a run. Seven of his 10 runs came in one blowup start in Washington. He, too, is in a tough spot (Guardians 115 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP). Javier is the second best projected pitcher on DraftKings, but just fourth on FanDuel.

Morton dominated the Padres two starts back, striking out nine of 21, allowing just a single run over six innings. It was his first start with more than five strikeouts this season and the first time where he looked remotely like the pitcher he was last year. He followed that up with five strikeouts, but three runs in 5.1 innings in Miami. Morton has just a 20.7 K% (9.3 SwStr%) on the season. Primarily a two pitch pitcher at this point (curveball, four-seam), the whiff rate on both are down a bit, while each pitch has a wOBA against within a point of .350. The curveball drops down to a .293 xwOBA (the fastball climbs further), though even that is much worse than the pitch performed last year with similar velocities and spin rates. There are some weather concerns in Atlanta, though, with wind in from RF around 10 mph, the park could play a bit more pitcher friendly than usual too. The Phillies have an even 100 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP. Morton is projected outside the top three on DK and top five on FD, but he did show he still has the upside in him two starts back, which makes him a nice GPP play on a small slate should current ownership projections below 10% hold.

Kyle Isbel scratched Tuesday

Kyle Isbel scratched Tuesday

Emmanuel Rivera scratched Tuesday

Emmanuel Rivera scratched Tuesday