DFS Alerts

Murphy and Zimmermann are OUT against Johnson in San Diego

Erik Johnson is not a good pitcher who has allowed seven HRs to just 77 batters this season with a 7.8 K-BB%. Both lefties and righties have a wOBA above .380 with a hard hit rate above 39% against him since last season. Stacking in Petco is not normally recommended, but might be worth it tonight. Bryce Harper (188 wRC+, .322 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of tonight’s top bats. Jayson Werth has a 173 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week. Clint Robinson (101 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and even Stephen Drew (127 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP this season) can serve as salary savers with Murphy and Zimmerman out after an extra inning game yesterday before flying across country. Wilson Ramos (153 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this season) bats cleanup at a weak position tonight.

Kazmir has been erratic, but Brewers have a 26.2 K% on the road

Scott Kazmir has had starts of five and seven walks in his last five starts with an ERA and estimators above four. He has missed bats at an above average rate though with games of one run with 12 Ks and no runs with seven Ks sandwiched in between those high walk ones. He’s high risk, but on a short slate against an offense with a 26.2 K% on the road, he must be considered. Something players might not know though, is the Brewers have an 11.8 BB% vs LHP this year. If not playing Kazmir, players can look into Ryan Braun (183 wRC+, .291 ISO vs LHP this season) for just $4K or less.

Turner OUT, Thompson bats third against Junior Guerra

Junior Guerra has walked and struck out a total of five each over his last two starts with three HRs against the limping Mets and terrible Phillies. Perhaps there’s a reason he’s a 31 year old rookie. While batters from both side have an average wOBA against him, he’s allowed hard contact above 33% to batters from each side. The Dodgers have been an under-achieving offense, but a few bats might be useful here. Corey Seager (144 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP career) may be a top SS bat, but costs more than $5K on DK. Joc Pederson (124 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP career) has a 238 wRC+ over the last week. Trayce Thompson (136 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP this year) bats third tonight.

It’s going to be a hot one in KC, and we know that high heat typically equates to more offense. Things look clear across the board otherwise in terms of precipation, so it’s a relatively care-free night. Check out the link below for a full weather breakdown for each game.

Tanner Roark has dominated contact this season (52.5 GB%, 31.1 Soft%)

It’s generally a risky proposition to pay up for batted ball results, but in this case, on a half slate, it’s probably warranted. Tanner Roark has a very league average 13.2 K-BB%, but is dominating contact with a 52.5 GB% and league leading 31.1 Soft%. Plus he gets to face the worst offense vs RHP in baseball (75 wRC+, 18.0 K-BB%) in one of the most pitcher friendly parks. There might be pitchers with more upside, but Roark might have one of the higher floors tonight. San Diego bats are of no interest with one possible exception. Travis Jankowski (115 wRC+ vs RHP this season) bats leadoff for the minimum cost on FanDuel.

Top three in Minnesota order have 170+ wRC+ and .200+ ISO vs LHP this year

At one point, not too long ago, the Twins were one of the worst offenses in baseball vs LHP and still have a 23.9 K% against them, but the top three in the order tonight have torched LHPs for a wRC+ above 170 and ISO above .200. Robbie Grossman leads the way with a 200 wRC+ and .294 ISO and is much more affordable on DraftKings ($3.4K) than Fanduel ($3.6K). Nunez (.375 ISO) and Dozier (174 wRC+) should be strongly considered as well. C.C. Sabathia may seem rejuvenated, but his 3.9 HR/FB and 80.6 LOB% (highest of his career) are not sustainable. His 9.8 BB% is his highest and his 9.1 SwStr% his lowest since 2002.

Yankees carry some high price tags and Kyle Gibson has a 54.2 GB% with a 1.0 Hard-Soft%

Kyle Gibson used to be a heavy ground ball pitcher who’s above average SwStr% never showed in his well below average K%. This season, a shoulder injury has limited him to five starts and both his K% (10.5) and SwStr% (8.6) are well down, though he still has a 54.2 GB% and just a 1.0 Hard-Soft%. RHBs have just a .301 wOBA against him since last year and 56 GB% career, so players should only probably focus on LHBs, but this lineup is priced as if they’re still playing at Coors. Carlos Beltran (121 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP this season) is the best bat if you can afford him. Ellsbury (125 wRC+) and Gardner (132 wRC+) can make their speed work more against the high ground ball rate. Brian McCann (99 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP this season) is viable at an extremely weak Catcher position tonight.

Danny Duffy has a 16.0 SwStr% over the last month with a 29.0 Soft% as a starter

The Tigers have been hitting LHP well recently, but Danny Duffy has been dominant in his starts this season (31 IP – 25 H – 10 ER – 5 HR – 5 BB – 38 K – 122 BF). That includes a 16.0 SwStr% over the last month matches Kershaw’s MLB bets season rate and his 29.0 Soft% in starts has led to a 16.7 IFFB%. The one thing that might be an issue tonight is a 50% fly ball rate and 13.9 HR/FB against an offense dripping with RH power. Duffy has allowed RHBs a .335 wOBA in his career, but has dropped that to an acceptable .309 with a 20.5 K-BB%, though all six of his HRs have gone to RHBs. Duffy’s price has risen, but even if you don’t expect him to continue at this pace, it’s not yet where it needs to be. He’s a very viable option on a short slate. Tigers bats are mostly very expensive for a lineup expected to score just 4.05 runs. Ian Kinsler (180 wRC+) and J.D. Martinez (134 wRC+) have been the top bats against LHP this season (.200+ ISO each) and both have a wRC+ above 200 over the last week if you can afford them. Miguel Cabrera has just a 54 wRC+ and .082 ISO vs LHP in 2016.

Aaron Nola is top eight in the majors in K-BB%, GB% and Soft%

Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball not getting a lot of recognition because he doesn’t throw nearly as hard as some others. He has a 21.7 K-BB% (sixth in MLB), a 55.0 GB% (eighth), and 26.6 Soft% (third). The Blue Jays come into this game red hot (156 wRC+, 4.2 K-BB% last seven days), but that’s not enough to knock Nola off his perch as potentially tonight’s top pitcher. He has dominated RHBs (.261 wOBA, 24.0 Hard%), though we probably never want to entirely remove the top three (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion) from consideration. All have a wRC+ between 140 and 150 vs RHP with an ISO between .260 and .285 vs RHP since last season with a 40+ Hard% over the last week. Michael Saunders (143 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP this season) is probably tonight’s top Toronto bat though. He has a 286 wRC+ and 43.8 Hard% over the last week and Nola has allowed LHBs a more reasonable .308 wOBA.

Colon allowing a ton of contact (2.9 SwStr% last 30 days), but Pirates bats are ice cold (20.0 K-BB% last week)

Bartolo Colon has struck out one more batter over the last month (12) than Syndergaard did last night (11) with just a 2.9 SwStr%. He’s been getting by on an 80% strand rate and is no longer a pitcher we can trust in a daily fantasy setting. He’s still not walking anyone and the Pirates, who are normally a well plate disciplined offense, have a 20.0 K-BB% over the last week with a 41 wRC+. John Jaso being out is a bit of blow to the Pirates, but he draws a lot of his value from walks he wasn’t going to get tonight anyway. Jung-Ho Kang (146 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP this season) might be the most interesting bat here. Gregory Polanco (152 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this season) is another bat to look at, but is more expensive and has struggled in this series (59 wRC+). Starling Marte is not in this lineup either.

Orioles two through five all hit LHP well (.200+ ISO this season) and Rodriguez has struggled

Eduardo Rodriguez has been terrible in three starts (16.1 IP – 11 ER – 7 BB – 7 K). In fact, his best start was his first against these Orioles without a walk and striking out three of 24 over six innings with just two runs. More than half his contact has been in the air, which has led to five HRs and is generally not encouraged in Boston. The top Baltimore bats come at high prices. Manny Machado has a 171 wRC+ and .309 ISO vs LHP this year and is easily the most coveted bat, but strangely, Rodriguez has allowed a higher wOBA (.339) with a 35.3 Hard% to LHBs and Chris Davis hits LHPs well (102 wRC+, .246 ISO this season) and has been red hot (244 wRC+, 50.0 Hard% last seven days). Mark Trumbo is the most expensive bat on DK ($5K), but has been ice cold (45 wRC+, 10.0 Hard% last seven days). He does have the highest ISO in the lineup vs LHP this year though (.386). Joey Rickard (124 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP) has been hot as well (209 wRC+ last seven days) and would be the value play here for around $3K. Leadoff man Adam Jones does have a 50.0 Hard% over the last week, but just a 4 wRC+ vs LHP this season and 70 wRC+ since last year.

Walker and Conforto return to face a pitcher with a .411 wOBA vs LHBs since last season.

Juan Nicasio has a .411 wOBA against LHBs this season and it was .412 last season. Obviously, the Mets want to stack as many lefties as they could, which is a reason it’s a surprise to not see Kelly Johnson, who homered last night. Neil Walker (105 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP this season) and Michael Conforto (143 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP this season) have been banged up with a bad back and sore wrist respectively, so it’s a bit unexpected to see both of them in there and it could decrease their performance, but you might not be able to stay away from affordable bats against such a terrible pitcher against LHBs. Curtis Granderson (122 wRC+, .146 ISO vs RHP) is a top overall bat tonight at the top of the order. Asdrubal Cabrera (95 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is an affordable LH SS bat at the top of the order, who has been hot (168 wRC+, 57.9 Hard% over the last week). Yoenis Cespedes (134 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this season) has virtually no split and should be included in stacks, but Nicasio has been much more successful against RHBs (.278 ISO with just three HRs allowed in a little over 300 PAs since last season).

Red Sox have tonight's top run projection (5.48) by nearly a run against Tyler Wilson (11.9 K%)

The Red Sox are tonight’s top projected lineup by nearly a run (5.48) against a pitcher who has allowed at least three runs in each of his last five and five runs in three of those starts. Tyler Wilson has just an 11.9 K% with an average batted ball and contact profile, which means plenty of opportunities for batted ball damage. The issue is going to be fitting them into your lineup, even without a lot of high priced pitching tonight. The top six, outside of Hanley Ramirez, all cost $4.9K or more on DraftKings, $3.5K or more on FanDuel. Wilson has actually allowed RHBs a slightly higher wOBA (.329) since last season with a 32.0 Hard%, but Oritz is still the stud bat here (206 wRC+, .386 ISO vs RHP this year), though Bogaerts is the hottest (293 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% last seven days). Jackie Bradley Jr. has an aEV of 105 mph on three batted balls against Wilson. All of the expensive batters hit RHP very well (135 or better wRC+ this season), but Ramirez could be a slightly cheaper pivot from Ortiz if need be. He has just an 83 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but with a .199 ISO and has been heating up over the last week (168 wRC+). One more interesting name for FanDuel players is Rusney Castillo in the seventh spot. He’s a min-priced way to get some exposure to the expected action, though costs $4K on FanDuel for some reason.

Phillies have a 62 wRC+, 23.8 K% and 7.7 HR/FB vs LHP

J.A. Happ has been a below average pitcher by peripherals (8.7 K-BB%) and estimators (4.66 SIERA, 4.71 FIP), but slightly above average by ERA (3.70). What we know for sure is he’s an affordable lefty facing the Phillies (67 wRC+ at home, 62 wRC+, 23.8 K%, 7.7 HR/FB vs LHP) and that’s sometimes enough. Not a single bat in this lineup has a wRC+ above 99 (Herrera) against LHP this season (min. 30 PAs). Maikel Franco at least has a 112 wRC+ career and a .267 ISO this season vs LHP and is probably the only playable bat here.

Rangers have plus match up against Daniel Mengden

A’s starter Daniel Mengden had a decent start his first time out but now has to face a Rangers offense that is tough to deal with. Vegas has the Rangers as a road favorite and Rougned Odor becomes a top target as he moves to the lead off spot for this game. Odor has a .221 ISO against RHP and comes at a very affordable price tag. The rest of the top four of the order (Desmond, Mazara, and Beltre) are also excellent options to target. Profar and Choo are not playing today. Colby Lewis takes the mound for the Rangers and he continues to defy the numbers with a 3.00 ERA. We should expect regression as his SIERA is 4.57 but he has yet to show that decline. He’s an easy fade though given his unsustainable .249 BABIP and a A’s team that is tough to strike out. Stephen Vogt is the top option for the A’s at the C position with Coco Crisp close behind him as he leads off today. Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, and Jed Lowrie are secondary options.