DFS Alerts

Orioles bats at reduced cost against an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.75 GB/FB) at home

Marco Estrada is mocking ERA estimators with a .191 BABIP and 7.4 HR/FB, but this is a high risk start for him. The Orioles have a 15.4 HR/FB on the road and 16.5 HR/FB vs RHP. They will strike out (25.6% at home, 22.7% vs RHP) and Estrada can miss some bats (21.5 K%, 9.7 SwStr%), but his cost has risen above $10K on DraftKings now. In fact, though they have a middling projection of just four runs, the Orioles bats could be very interesting tonight at reduced cost against a pitcher with a 0.75 GB/FB. Not a single bat is above $4.3K on either site tonight. Manny Machado (148 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $4K tonight, Chris Davis (150 wRC+, .320 ISO vs RHP since 2015) less than $3.5K, and Trumbo (165 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP this season) just over $4K. All have homered once in 15 PA or less against Estrada. In fact, this lineup has six total career HRs against this pitcher in 78 career PAs. Hyun-Soo Kim (198 wRC+ at home, 157 wRC+ vs RHP) is still the value play here for less than $3K.

Cubs (4.95 run projection) could be a strong pivot from Coors tonight

Bud Norris is a human launching pad. He has walked 11.5% of batters this year and the Cubs have walked at the same pace (11.2%) vs RHP. He has additionally allowed a 13.6 HR/FB and 19.4 Hard-Soft%. The Cubs are projected for nearly five runs and could serve as a slightly cheaper alternative to Coors tonight, though their price tags are still up there. Stil, for below $5K DK/$4.5K FD, the LH bats + Bryant (143 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP career) need to be strongly considered. Anthony Rizzo (149 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appears to be one of the top overall bats tonight. He carries the hottest bat on the team (211 wRC+ over the last week).

Jason Hammel has a .248 BABIP, but Cubs defense has just a .244 BABIP

Jason Hammel has a 2.14 ERA well below his 4.23 ERA, partially due to 6.3 HR/FB that’s nearly half his career rate, but the Braves have just a 4.5 HR/FB at home and 4.7 HR/FB vs RHP. They are the worst offense in baseball and tonight’s top matchup. Hammel’s 9.6 BB% is a bit of a concern, but he’s pitched at least seven innings in each of his last two starts and Joe Maddon should have little reason to pinch-hit for him early tonight (as he tends to do with the back end of his rotation). If you want to quote a .248 BABIP for part of his success, the Cubs defense has allowed just a .244 BABIP. In other words, he might be expected to continue to run well below his peripherals in this matchup. Hammel is a bit pricey on DraftKings tonight ($11.1K), but usable on either site against this offense. Braves bats are of no interest tonight with the 3rd lowest run projection on the board (3.05).

Strasburg struck out 10 of 22 in last start, 10 or more Ks in half of his starts this year

Stephen Strasburg is tonight’s 2nd best pitcher and priced accordingly tonight. He struck out 10 of 22 Reds in his last start and has at least 10 Ks in half of his starts this season. One of tonight’s top matchups against the Phillies (78 wRC+ away, 77 wRC+ vs RHP) should serve him well. The only issue would be if that if you can afford him for $13.5K on DK, you might be inclined to spend an extra $400 for Kershaw. Phillies bats do not hold any interest tonight with the 2nd lowest run projection (2.71).

Sonny Gray returned from injury to pitch well in his last start, costs just $6.5K on DraftKings

Sonny Gray allowed just one run and even had an 11.6 SwStr% in his first start in over two weeks. If we can buy into him pitching injured for a while this season, it could explain his now below average 8.6 K-BB% and 17.1 Hard-Soft%, although he is still generating ground balls at above a 50% clip. If a healthy Gray can get back to a strikeout rate a bit above league average with frequent weak ground balls, he’ll be well worth his price of just $6.5K tonight, even in a tough park against an offense with a 21.4 HR/FB over the last week and 17.4 HR/FB at home, which is why we’re more hesitant for $8K on FanDuel. The Reds do have a 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year and even a 29.2 K% over the last week though. A healthy Sonny Gray, serving up ground balls is not a pitcher players should look to attack tonight, but Adam Duvall (138 wRC+, .355 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is difficult to take off the board, though it will be difficult to afford either he or Votto (156 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for over $5K on DK ($3.5K on FD).

Valencia & Davis return against DeSclafani in his 2016 debut

Anthony DeSclafani struck out 19 batters with just two walks against 85 batters in his rehab, but it’s a bit less impressive when you consider he pitched at three levels and allowed six HRs. He has just a 9.1 HR/FB career, so they haven’t been a problem in his past, so we’ll have to wait and see as he rounds back into form. LHBs did have a .338 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against him last season, so we can consider attacking with a few upside Oakland bats in one of the most power friendly parks. Even though Danny Valencia bats RH, he hits cleanup and has a 135 wRC+ with a .232 ISO vs RHP since last season. The LH bats are much cheaper (below $3.5K on DK, $3K on FD). Stephen Vogt (121 wRC+, .190 ISO since 2015), Jed Lowrie (117 wRC+ vs RHP this year) and even Yonder Alonso (218 wRC+ last seven days) are all acceptable salary savers on a night where players are likely paying up for pitching.

Mariners play in the game with the lowest O/U (8) of the slate

Nelson Cruz has five home runs in his last six games and should be relatively low-owned with Coors Field available on a short slate. Cruz has a .434 wOBA, 183 wRC+ over the last week and is still a playable $4.4K on DraftKings. Since his salary has not spiked too drastically, Seth Smith, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager deserve consideration in a Mariners’ stack. Smith is the cheapest of the four but has struggled recently (.184 wOBA, 10 wRC+ L7) making him only viable in tournaments. Cano (.361 wOBA, 133 wRC+ L14) leads the team in runs scored over the last couple weeks with 13 in his last 13 games. Kyle Seager (.402 wOBA, 161 wRC+ L14) leads the team in RBIs over the last couple weeks with 13 in 13 games. Dae-Ho Lee is out of the lineup and Chris Iannetta (.423 wOBA, 176 wRC+ L14) has also hit the ball well from the bottom of the order.

Karns is one of two pitchers with a strikeout rate above 20% tonight, but struggles to go deep in games

Nate Karns has tonight’s top strikeout rate (23.4%) and is one of just two pitchers above 20% tonight, but a 9.8 BB% has helped frequently knock him out of games early. He’s gone five innings or less in three of his last four starts and fewer than six in six of 11 this year. Give him six or more innings and he might be tonight’s top pitcher against a Cleveland offense with a 23.9 K% and 78 wRC+ on the road this season. While it would normally be more questionable paying $8K for so few innings, tonight’s tough slate is an exception. Two pitcher sites probably demand some exposure here if playing multiple lineups. Karns has actually been slightly better against LHBs since last season (.304 wOBA). In the worst run environment tonight, against possibly the best talent on the slate with bullpen matchups following after five or six innings, Cleveland bats aren’t very interesting tonight.

Nationals face home run prone Miguel Gonzalez

Miguel Gonzalez has given up 4 HRs in his six starts this season and 28 home runs in his last 34 starts. The Nationals do have some power that can really make Gonzalez pay. Ben Revere is out of the lineup tonight and Chris Heisey will be the leadoff hitter. Heisey is cheap across the industry but does not have a ton of upside since he only has 11 hits in 58 plate appearances this season. Bryce Harper continues to be priced under $5K on DraftKings and has a .394 wOBA, 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Daniel Murphy is the most expensive 2B on the slate and could be low-owned with a Coors game available tonight. Ryan Zimmerman (.427 wOBA, 171 wRC+ L14) is also a playable bat in the heart of the order against Miguel Gonzalez. Danny Espinosa leads the team in home runs over the last two weeks with six and is not too expensive at $3.1K on DK.

Bartolo Colon has just a 3.5 SwStr% last 30 days, Brewers have a 35.3 Hard% and 15.1 HR/FB at home.

Bartolo Colon has never missed a lot of bats, but his SwStr has fallen to 3.5% with a 10.7 K% over the last month. His ERA is still just 3.27 because his strand rate is now up to 79%. The Brewers strike out 26.3% vs RHP, but if they don’t have to worry about swinging and missing as often, they have a 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP. They have a 15.1 HR/FB and 35.3 Hard% in their home park and Colon has a 1.14 GB/FB. It’s dangerous to pay $7K for fly balls in Milwaukee. Top Brewer bats like Villar, Braun, and Lucroy are expensive on either site, but Chris Carter (100 wRC+, .280 ISO vs RHP this year) comes in at an affordable $4.1K on DraftKings tonight and is probably the biggest power threat in the lineup.

Kevin’s evening update includes more information on the Washington/Chicago game with perhaps tonight’s top pitcher going for the Nationals on a short slate. The good news is that he thinks it’s likely they get the majority or even the entire game in before weather becomes an issue, but make sure to check out our Weather Page for the full update and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothwx) in case there are further developments before lock.

Jimmy Nelson has allowed a .207 BABIP to LHBs, but a 13.2 BB%, 37.4 Hard% and 22.6 HR/FB

Jimmy Nelson is expected to be popular on a small slate against a struggling team tonight, but it’s difficult to justify paying $8K or more for him. While it may look like he’s improved against LHBs this year (.315 wOBA), it’s all BABIP related (.207). He still has a 13.2 BB%, 37.4 Hard%, and 22.6 HR/FB vs LHBs and the Mets have two with some power at the top of the lineup. Michael Conforto (149 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP career) homered last night and has a 40 Hard% over the last week, as he may be coming out of his slump. Curtis Granderson (139 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has also been hitting the ball harder lately. Neil Walker (117 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats cleanup and may be a top Second Base option on a small slate tonight. Nelson has held RHBs to a .272 wOBA and 27.1 Hard% since last season, but if players are using the mentioned three LHBs, Yoenis Cespedes (141 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) should probably be considered as well.

White Sox offense has just a 69 wRC+ over the last two weeks

The White Sox face Gio Gonzalez tonight, who has given up 6 HRs in his last four starts. Still, Vegas does not expect the struggling offense to do much against Gonzalez, projecting them with a 4.22 run projection (4th lowest). Gonzalez is the most expensive pitcher on the slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings and has allowed a .253 wOBA to LHBs this season. The White Sox are a team that has a majority of right-handed bats and Gonzalez has allowed a .318 wOBA against RHBs this season. Jose Abreu (.467 wOBA, 201 wRC+ L7) has been the White Sox hottest bat over the last week and is only $3.6K on DraftKings. Cleanup hitter Todd Frazier is the most expensive bat in the lineup but should still be considered an elite option against Gonzalez. Frazier has a .380 wOBA, 140 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.

Marcus Stroman has 2nd best GB rate in baseball (59.8%), but just a 16.2 K%.

Marcus Stroman has the 2nd highest ground ball rate in baseball (59.8%). He also has just a 16.2 K% and 16.7 Hard-Soft%, not good things when facing an offense with a 32.9 Hard%, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP and a 37.5 Hard%, 25.7 HR/FB over the last week. For just $5.7K on DraftKings, the ground ball rate might be enough against the rest of tonight’s pitching slate. He does have a 63.6 LOB% too that suggests his ERA might be in line for improvement. Stroman has little split since last season, keeping batters from both side to around a .300 wOBA and a near 60% GB rate. While the heart of this order could still do some damage, they cost mostly above $4K on DraftKings and $3.5K on FanDuel, which might be tough to squeeze excess value out of with so many expected ground balls, even though Trumbo (164 wRC+, .282 ISO) and Machado (159 wRC+, .313 ISO) have been smashing same handed pitching this year. Chris Davis (125 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP this year) is still a formidable bat. Hyun-Soo Kim (157 wRC+, .105 ISO) bats 2nd for just over or under $3K depending on where you play. He has little power, but could again be the value pick here with the potential to be in the middle of any run scoring.

Reds with the 3rd lowest run projection (4.13) but face Adam Wainwright, who has struggled on the road

Adam Wainwright has struggled against right-handed batters on the road, allowing a .424 wOBA against them. He’s struggled slightly less against left-handed batters, but still allows a .350 wOBA against them. The Reds are only tournament options against Wainwright because of their inflated salaries. The playable bats (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Adam Duvall) all are $5K and above on DraftKings, somewhat limiting your roster flexibility. With no elite pitching options on the slate, they can be used together as a contrarian stack. Votto (.465 wBOA, 194 wRC+ L14) is averaging 14.28 DK fpts in June and has not put up a 0 since late May. Duvall (.472 wOBA, 199 wRC+ L14) has been a home run machine of late, stroking 8 HRs in his last 12 games. Jay Bruce (.490 wOBA, 212 wRC+) continues to be the cleanup hitter and is the cheapest bat out of the three. With their run projection so low, the Reds should not have much ownership and will easily be contrarian in tournaments.