DFS Alerts

Grossman costs $2K on DraftKings vs pitcher with .341 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2015

Tom Koehler has walked at least four in six of 11 starts and exactly five in four straight starts before snapping that streak last time out. He has just a 16.7 K% and a 4.50 ERA with estimators a run higher. Lefties have a .341 wOBA (34 Hard%) against him since last season, making Robbie Grossman (128 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the bargain play of the night for the minimum on DraftKings. RHBs have hit him at an average clip as well (.309 wOBA), keeping average bats like Eduardo Nunez (124 wRC+ .134 vs RHP since 2015) in play, should you want to pay over $5K on DraftKings. Byung-Ho Park (107 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP) would be the only remaining bat with an ISO above .200 against righties this year (or last).

Cardinals have tonight's top run projection (5.36) against Finnegan (4.0 K-BB%)

The St Louis Cardinals have tonight’s top run projection (5.36) and face Brandon Finnegan, who has pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last three starts, but has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in any of them and has just a 4.0 K-BB% on the season to go with a 5.32 SIERA. He’s held LHBs to just a .306 wOBA since 2015, but Matt Carpenter is an above average bat against lefties (110 wRC+, .197 ISO since 2015), who deserves strong consideration atop this lineup. He also has two HRs in 8 PAs against Finnegan with a 96.3 mph aEV (four batted balls). RHBs have a .321 wOBA, 33.2 Hard% against Finnegan since last season. Without any high cost pitchers tonight, affording these bats shouldn’t be a problem. The most expensive, Stephen Piscotty, has destroyed LHP in his career (185 wRC+, .220 ISO). The one bat to consider omitting from stacks might be Yadier Molina, who has really struggled against LHP since last season (63 wRC+, .045 ISO). All other bats in tonight’s lineup that haven’t been mentioned have a wRC+ between 87 and 121 against southpaws since 2015. Consider as much exposure to this lineup as you can get. Note that Adams and Peralta are OUT tonight.

Marlins offense has just a 59 wRC+ and 3.3 HR/FB over the last week

Ervin Santana has not been good this season (4.50 ERA, 4.46 SIERA), but his 19.3 K% is nearly league average (just two pitchers above 20% tonight) and he does have a 10.6 SwStr% over the last month, while inducing frequent weak contact this season (6.5 Hard-Soft%). In addition, he’s facing a Marlins offense with a 92 wRC+ vs RHP and just a 59 wRC+ with a 3.3 HR/FB over the last week. For just over $6K on either site, that’s enough to make him usable. With all of the big Miami bats being priced around $4K on DK and $3K or more on FD, there’s not a lot of value in a bunch of cold bats with a median run projection tonight (4.4). Christian Yelich is their most expensive hitter, but also probably the best vs RHP this season (154 wRC+, .205 ISO). Stanton, Ozuna, Bour, and Dietrich all have a wRC+ below 25 over the last seven days, though Stanton and Bour each have an ISO above .240 vs RHP this season.

Angels' bats in play against home run prone Ivan Nova at windy Yankee Stadium

Last night each team hit 3 HRs and a lot of it can be attributed to the windy conditions that were present in New York. Tonight the Angels face Ivan Nova, who has given up a home run in each of his six starts this season. Nova is struggling to hitters from both sides of the plate, allowing a .333 wOBA since becoming a starter. Even though the Angels don’t have one of the top run projections of the day, we can target Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun in tournaments because of lower ownership levels. Trout (.413 wOBA, 170 wRC+ L14) and Calhoun (.441 wOBA, 189 wRC+ L14) have seen their salaries spike over $5K due to the recent surge in production and can be stacked together because of all the cheap pitching options available today. Albert Pujols (.408 wOBA, 167 wRC+ L14) is also a viable option, having hit 2 home runs off of Nova in 12 ABs. Pujols is at a season-high $4.7K on DraftKings so his expected production is pretty much priced in.

Carlos Beltran has a 240 wRC+ and 52.4 Hard% over the last week

Your pitching options aren’t strong tonight (understatement) and some of the more usable ones may be affected by weather. This is what brings Jhoulys Chacin into potential consideration tonight. He followed up a complete game 10 strikeout performance with four walks and one K. He preceded it with no more than four strikeouts in five straight starts. The Yankees have just a 26.1 Hard% at home and 25.1 Hard%, 88 wRC+ vs RHP this season despite last night’s outburst. For just $5.9K on FanDuel, Chacin doesn’t even have to be good. From an offensive standpoint, the Yankee bats are cheap with not a single on above $4.4K on either site. That would be Carlos Beltran (127 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He has a 240 wRC+ and 52.4 Hard% over the last week. Other Yankee bats, such as Gardner (109 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Rodriguez (111 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and McCann (104 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are good values at $4K or less.

Tyler Wilson has a 50% ground ball rate, but doesn't miss bats (12.0 K%)

Tyler Wilson has not struck out more than four in a game this season, but has an ERA only just above four due to a .257 BABIP and an ability to keep the ball on the ground 50% of the time. With the Blue Jays being projected for five runs tonight, this is a spot where we’ll want to target some hitters. Wilson has shown no real platoon split (.311 wOBA vs LHBs, .318 vs RHBs) since last season, so our top overall bat and one of the top overall bats tonight is Josh Donaldson (143 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He appears to be over his thumb injury with a 176 wRC+ over the last week and a big game yesterday. He’s expensive, but no more than usual. Jose Bautista (145 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appears to be one of the top OF bats tonight and a better value on DraftKings ($4.4K). He has three career plate appearances against Wilson with a HR that left the bat at 107 mph. Justin Smoak (113 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the value play here for less than $3.5K, though you might not need to save on salary tonight.

Texas teams battle in lone afternoon game on Thursday

Vegas sees some runs being scored this afternoon in Texas as they have given the Astros-Ranger game a high run total of 9.5 with both teams projected to score more than 4.5. The struggling Collin McHugh and the inconsistent Martin Perez are the SP’s for the game. As is usually the case, you’ll want to target the top of the Astros order. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Evan Gattis all mash LHP (only Correa is below a .400 wOBA this season). Carlos Gomez batting sixth is also in play as he comes in with a .394 wOBA vs LHP thus far this season. It’s pretty much the same if you are looking at Rangers bats – target the top four (Profar, Desmond, Mazara, and Odor). Profar and Mazara are the top two options for the team and it’s worth noting that Adrian Beltre is not playing today due to a neck injury.

Jose Ramirez scratched Wednesday

Jose Ramirez has been scratched due to a bruised ankle. Michael Martinez will take over at 2B and bat 9th.

Kenta Maeda extremely discounted on DK; Rockies with only a 3.28 run projection

Maeda has not seen his salary under $8K since April, making him an elite SP2 and also a strong SP1, if you want to differentiate in tournaments. Maeda has held RHBs to a .259 wOBa and LHBs to a .260 wOBA this season, which does not leave much upside for the Rockies. He has only allowed one run in his last two starts but does not strike out a ton of batters. Maeda has averaged 4.5 strikeouts in his last four starts but did record 8 against the Rockies earlier this season. The Rockies currently have the 6th lowest run projection on the slate and don’t offer much upside in a pitcher-friendly park. If you still want some exposure to the game, Charlie Blackmon (.389 wOBA, 129 wRC+ L14) and Carlos Gonzalez (.560 wOBA, 244 wRC+ L14) are viable left-handed bats against Maeda. Blackmon and Gonzalez are not really that cheap and will likely limit your roster flexibility.

Buster Posey OUT again vs David Price

David Price is the least expensive of the top dogs on DraftKings ($9.4K) and just got a bit of a boost in a great park with the Giants absent both Posey and Pence now. While his ERA has declined over the last month his peripherals have too (22.5 K%) and he has uncharacteristically walked seven over his last two starts. Hard contact is still a concern (19.0 Hard-Soft%) and he has allowed a HR in each of his last four starts, but is a good bet to get deep into the game against a lineup with little power tonight. There’s no interest in any of these bats in a tough park against a quality pitcher.

Red Sox with the 2nd lowest run projection (2.92) against Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner is expected to be in a pitching duel tonight with David Price, which pretty much puts the offenses out of play in SF. With so many elite pitching options available tonight Bumgarner should not be too heavily owned across the industry and is playable in all league formats. Bumgarner has recorded 11 Ks in two out of his last four outings, providing a ton of upside and is even discounted compared to his last start where he was $12.9K. Bumgarner has also not allowed a run in two out of his last three starts and should be able to pitch deep into the game tonight. Mookie Betts (.456 wOBA, 190 wRC+ L14) is really the only viable bat available in the lineup but carries too much risk for cash games against Bumgarner.

Rusin hasn't been bad on the road (3.09 ERA, 3.01 FIP), but low cost Dodger bats could provide salary relief

Chris Rusin does not miss many bats (17.3 K%), but keeps the ball on the ground 58.8% of the time this season and has not been bad on the road (3.09 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 3.39 xFIP). If players are looking for a viable punt in their SP2 spot on DraftKings, this might be your guy for $5K. In just 35 innings, batters from either side have a wOBA below .300 against him on the road this season, though it was above .370 from either side last season in 65 innings, so we don’t have to avoid Dodger bats if we’re not looking to skim on our 2nd pitcher. The Dodgers have two lefty mashers in the top four spots tonight. Trayce Thompson has a 158 wRC+ and .299 ISO vs LHP since last season and Kike Hernandez has 192 wRC+ and .301 ISO. Both are well below $4K on either site. In fact just Thompson on FD ($3.7K) and Adrian Gonzalez are above $3.6 anywhere tonight. Low cost Dodger bats, including Justin Turner (114 wRC+, .163 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for under $3K could be your gateway to expensive pitching.

Carlos Carrasco has struggled against left-handed batters so far this season

Even though it is a small sample size, Carlos Carrasco has allowed a .354 wOBA against LHBs this season. With so many elite pitching options available, it’s better to pay up for them or pay down for some value. Switch-hitting Ketel Marte is back in the lineup tonight batting 8th after missing last night with neck spasms. Carrasco is still tough and has held hitters from both sides of the plate to under a .290 wOBA over the last two season, so the Mariners upside is pretty limited. Vegas currently projects the Mariners with the 9th lowest run projection at 3.71, making Robinson Cano the only player with enough pop from the left side to make an impact. Cano (.369 wOBA, 138 wRC+ L14) leads the team with runs scored (15) over the last two weeks and is a playable $4k on DraftKings.

Taijuan Walker has not been missing bats, 11 HRs last six starts

Taijuan Walker has been a mess over the last month, allowing 11 HRs over six starts with three strikeouts or less four times. He’s struck out four or fewer in seven of 11 starts total. He has a 20.7 K-BB% at home since last season, but also a 15.6 HR/FB. This is just not a pitcher that can be depended on right now. Walker does have just a .301 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season though, so there’s not a lot to be drawn to in the Cleveland lineup in a pitcher’s park. This may be a spot best avoided altogether for daily fantasy purposes.

Kevin Roth details the windy conditions across the slate in his latest update. Check out the details at the link below.