DFS Alerts
Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy expected to lead the Nationals over James Shields
James Shields will be making his first start with the White Sox since being acquired from the Padres. U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago has been a more pitcher-friendly environment than Petco Park in San Diego so far this season. Still, Vegas has the Nationals with a 4.51 run projection (8th highest). Shields has allowed a .348 wOBA against LHBs this season, which puts Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy as the top options. Harper (.393 wOBA, 148 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) still sits below $5K, while Daniel Murphy (.419 wOBA, 165 wRC+ L14) has been hot over the last couple weeks. Making him the most expensive bat in the lineup at $5.1K but he is slightly discounted from the games earlier this week. Stephen Drew ($2.6K on DK) is also a viable cheap bat on a slate with so many high-priced pitching options available. Drew (.488 wOBA, 212 wRC+ L14) has played well over the last couple weeks and does deserve tournament consideration, even though he is at the bottom of the order.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Stephen Drew, James Shields
Darvish has struck out 12 of 43 batters, Astros have a 25.1 K% vs RHP
Yu Darvish has struck out 12 of 43 batters since returning in two tough matchups at home. Tonight, he faces another powerful offense (15.3 HR/FB, 33.9 Hard%), but one that strikes out a ton (25.1% vs RHP). With 88 pitches last time out, he should be good for at least 90 tonight, which gets him through six innings or maybe more if things go well. At $11K on DK and just $9.6K on FD, he’s a top pitching option tonight with upside equal to almost any of the top arms tonight. There’s little to no interest in Houston bats tonight, though the 4th and 5th batters for Houston come in at just over $3K and LHBs do have a 31.6 Hard% against Darvish through two games. If you’re not using him and desperately need salary relief tonight, Valbuena (118 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Rasmus (108 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might suffice with little needed to pay off.
Other tagged players: Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus
Profar OUT against Fister tonight
For those hoping to roster an affordable middle infield leadoff hitter atop a lineup projected for five runs tonight, direct your ire at the Texas Rangers as Jurickson Profar takes a seat and Rougned Odor (102 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returns to the leadoff spot tonight against Doug Fister, who has the lowest SwStr in baseball (4.9%) by 0.6 points. His 3.51 ERA is nearly a run and a half below his estimators due to stranding 79% of his runners. He excels at inducing weak contact on the ground vs RHBs (58.7 GB%, 18.3 Hard%), taking them out of the daily fantasy game tonight, but lefties have a .343 wOBA and 31.8 Hard% against him since last season, making the above mentioned Odor and Nomar Mazara (155 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) strong plays tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Rougned Odor, Doug Fister Jesse Hahn has been lit up this season, but Milwaukee bats are expensive
Jesse Hahn has been lit up this season (6.10 ERA, 5.09 SIERA, 11.0 K%), but has limited RHBs to a .256 wOBA and 17.2 Hard% since last year. This reduces the value of a hot hitting, but high priced Catcher like Jonathan Lucroy (169 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP this season). Jonathan Villar (111 wRC+ vs RHP this season) is probably the top bat, but costs over $5K on DraftKings as well. The Brewers are projected to score 4.71 runs, but with high priced RHBs and no other even average LH bats, it’s going to be tough to get much daily fantasy value out of it.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jonathan Lucroy, Jesse Hahn Eduardo Nunez is destroying LHP this year (214 wRC+, .462 ISO)
Eduardo Nunez is destroying LHP this year (214 wRC+, .462 ISO). Unfortunately, no other Twins are following his lead, as only Brian Dozier (155 wRC+, .235 ISO) and Byung-Ho Park (109 wRC+, .229 ISO) have been above average against southpaws this season. Robbie Grossman is a cheap OF bat that has been hot (206 wRC+, 38.5 Hard% last seven days) in the 2nd slot tonight. Wei-Yin Chen has allowed a .339 ISO and 31.9 Hard% to RHBs since 2015. He has struck out 10 of his last 42 batters, allowing just three runs over his last two starts, but has been very inconsistent this season, pitching into the 7th just once over his last six starts. This is not a pitcher you’re looking to build around tonight, but if you find yourself with $8K left for a pitcher, you could probably do worse. Minnesota has been terrible vs LHP (83 wRC+, 24.8 K%).
Other tagged players: Wei-Yin Chen, Byung-ho Park, Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman Syndergaard has a 1.91 ERA and 90/10 K/BB ratio this season; should dominate the Pirates
Noah Syndergaard has a strikeout rate of 32.9% and has been an elite pitcher all season. That should not change against the Pirates tonight. Even though the Pirates have hit right-handed pitching well this season, there is nothing that suggests that Syndergaard should struggle against them. Syndergaard has allowed a .188 wOBA to right-handed batters this season on the road and the Pirates have five in the lineup tonight. Syndergaard has also allowed a .269 wOBA to left-handed batters and has walked more batters from that side of the plate. Walks don’t win tournaments, so the expectations for the Pirates are low. With so many good pitching options tonight, Syndergaard is not even the most expensive pitching option on the slate. This should help spread some ownership around, If you can find enough value in the other games, two high-priced pitchers is a viable tournament play on DraftKings. With the Pirates having a run projection under 4 (3.76), Andrew McCutchen looks like a viable tournament bat at his discounted salary. McCutchen is only $3.2K on DraftKings and has a .334 wOBA, 112 wRC+ vs. RHP this season.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen Angels strike out a league low 15.7% vs RHPs
Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t been bad at all this season (4.09 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, 22.7 K%), but the Angels strike out a league low 15.7% of the time against RHPs, making it difficult to pay $8K for an average pitcher in this park. A pitcher with a 51.8 GB% is not one we really want to attack (57.6% vs RHBs), but he has allowed three HRs at home to LHBs this season already (17.6 HR/FB) and does have a .351 wOBA and 32.4 Hard% against them since last season. Kole Calhoun (118 wRC+, .169 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an interesting name to look at tonight. He has been scorching over the last week (205 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%). Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .284 ISO) is incredibly expensive and probably out of most price ranges with Eovaldi’s .281 wOBA, 26.4 Hard% vs RHBs sincce last year, but always deserves a mention.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Nathan Eovaldi Scherzer has eight or more Ks in four of last five, but a HR allowed in six straight starts
Max Scherzer is going deep into games (eight or more innings in three of last five) and striking out the world (eight or more Ks in four of last five), but is also allowing a ton of HRs (at least one in six straight starts and 16 total). With all of the other top arms on the mound tonight there’s a question of affordability (especially on DraftKings) for the top priced arm. There’s no question that only Syndergaard (and maybe Darvish) match him in strikeout upside tonight, but at this point, we almost have to expect a HR. There are no Chicago bats of interest, however, if speculating on that HR, Todd Frazier (119 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP this season) is likely to be low owned and the only bat in the lineup with an ISO above .151 vs RHP this season. Scherzer has dominated RHBs since last season (.225 wOBA), but with 21 HRs. The White Sox have just the 5th lowest run projection tonight (3.48).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Todd Frazier Granderson sits after DH as Mets shake up lineup against star prospect Taillon
Curtis Granderson gets the day off after playing both ends of a DH yesterday and a slumping Michael Conforto (147 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) bats 2nd tonight as Pirates star prospect Jameson Taillon makes his debut. Unfortunately, he costs $8.9K on DraftKings and is not even available on FanDuel, diminishing his daily fantasy usefulness. There has been no word about a pitch count (91 pitchers or more four of last five starts) and this is a pitcher who has returned from a two year absence (two different surgeries) to post a 23.3 K-BB% in 62 AAA innings this year, but DraftKings appears to be pricing him as if that will immediately translate over to the majors. Against a tired and slumping Mets offense, he could start his career strong. We’re not looking to attack him, but if you’re looking to punt an OF spot, Alejandro De Aza (110 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) bats leadoff for $2.4K or less tonight.
Other tagged players: Alejandro De Aza, Michael Conforto Nolasco has a 17.4 K-BB% this season and has allowed just four runs over his last two starts
Ricky Nolasco has allowed just four runs with 14 strikeouts (one walk) over his last two starts. The peripherals are always great (17.4 K-BB%), but the run prevention is severely lacking. He is an aberration as a pitcher who genuinely can’t strand runners throughout his career and has a 33.5 Hard% this year. Peripherals play strongly in DFS as strikeouts count nearly as much as a run allowed, so we can expect him to allow a few runs and strike out a few batters without many walks and he can return some value at a low cost (below $7K on either site), which could be important on a night like tonight on two pitcher sites. Players should not feel the need to avoid him if not using him though. This is an ice cold Marlins lineup (53 wRC+, 3.8 HR/FB last seven days) with the 4th through 7th batters all having a wRC+ below 40 over the last week, but Stanton (dropped to 5th) compliments that with a 60.0 Hard% when he does make contact and may be ready to break out. He still has a .236 ISO vs RHP this season. Christian Yelich (160 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP this season is the top bat in this lineup tonight from a consistency standpoint. Justin Bour also has a .245 ISO vs RHP this season and serves as a more affordable First Base option.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour Yankees are the top projected lineup (5.47 runs) with wind blowing out to right against Weaver
There’s a lot going in the Yankees favor here. They are facing an extreme fly ball pitcher in Jered Weaver, who has allowed a wOBA above .340 to batters from either side since last season. Kevin reported that the wind may be blowing out to RF 15-20 mph in his morning report and the Yankees have the top run projection at 5.47 runs. Equally important with all of the high priced arms on the mound, not a single bat in this lineup is above $4.3K on DraftKings or $4K on FanDuel. This is the lineup players will want heavy exposure to, allowing them still to afford a high priced arm. Carlos Beltran (126 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 60.0 Hard% over the last week. He is probably the top bat here and the most expensive on either site. Alex Rodriguez (111 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs about $3.5K. He has five career HRs off of Weaver (33 PA) and a 103 mph aEV on two batted balls last season. Brian McCann (105 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP) is a top power option behind the plate at a similar cost to ARod. Stack your affordable Yankees in a great spot tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann Valencia & Davis remain OUT for A's in Milwaukee vs Anderson
Chase Anderson has been pitching a bit better lately (2.97 ERA, 3.74 SIERA, 21.7 K%, 10.7 SwStr% over the last 30 days) and faces an Oakland lineup basically without the entire middle of their order with Reddick, Valencia, and Davis out. This lineup gives Anderson some credibility as a lower priced pitcher, but he is still $7.1K on DraftKings and probably not the guy you want to go with on one pitcher sites tonight. Realize he’s a fly ball pitcher (0.97 GB/FB) with a lot of hard contact (19.8 Hard-Soft%) in a dangerous park. Anderson actually has a reverse platoon (.349 wOBA, 33.1 Hard% vs RHBs), which makes the Oakland absences hurt even more, but LHBs still have hit him at an average pace since last season (.310 wOBA). A few LH bats might provide some salary relief here if paying up for pitching. Stephen Vogt (122 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $4K behind the plate. Jed Lowrie (118 wRC+ vs RHP this year) bats 3rd and is middle infield eligible for less than $3.5K. Yonder Alonso (106 wRC+, .105 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) is not likely on any radars, but might be worth a look for $3.2K or less as he has a 274 wRC+ and 38.5 Hard% over the last week and may be able to provide significant salary relief at a First Base position that may not be as strong as usual tonight. Billy Butler has a 256 wRC+ with a 50 Hard% over the last week, but is a ground ball machine with a 17 wRC+ vs RHP this year and is a bit more expensive.
Other tagged players: Chase Anderson, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Vogt, Billy Butler Chris Davis OUT at home against Edinson Volquez (4 BB + 2 HR in 3 of last 6 starts)
Edinson Volquez has walked four and allowed multiple HRs (both things in the same start) three times in his last six starts. A trip to Baltimore might be a good way to ensure at least one of those things happens again, but the Orioles are without their top LH bat tonight (Chris Davis). Though their 4.71 run projection may dip with this lineup news, this is still an offense to consider heavy exposure to considering some reasonable prices. Hyun-Soo Kim (163 wRC+ vs RHP) is probably the big value play here out of the two hole for $3.5K or less. He doesn’t have much power (.111 ISO vs RHP), but has been hitting the ball hard (160 wRC+, 50 Hard% over the last week) and should be in the middle of things tonight. The top eight in the lineup all have a 106 wRC+ or better vs RHP since last season with only Wieters and Kim below a .200 ISO. While Volquez has little platoon split since last season (.315 wOBA vs RHBs, .300 vs LHBs), lefties do have a 30.9 Hard%. Mark Trumbo (171 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this season) has been on fire (312 wRC+, 52.4 Hard% last seven days), but is the most costly bat in the lineup on either site ($5K DK, $4.1K FD). Manny Machado continues to pound RH pitching (165 wRC+, .320 ISO this season). This looks like a strong lineup with a lot of power potential tonight even without Chris Davis
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Edinson Volquez, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado Holliday out for one of tonight's top projected offenses (5.39 runs)
Alfredo Simon has allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in nine straight starts, exceeding five innings only three times this year. LHBs have a .382 wOBA and 33.3 Hard% against him since last season, while RHBs have hit him at a .344 wOBA clip too. The Cardinals have the 2nd highest run projection tonight (5.39) against a pitcher with an 8.94 ERA and 6.89 FIP. This is an expensive lineup, but it’s unlikely players can go wrong with exposure anywhere in it. The top of this order hold to of the top IF bats tonight in Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and a more affordable Aledmys Diaz (151 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Matt Adams (batting 3rd) might be the top value player here for less than $4K. He has a 158 wRC+ and .248 ISO vs RHP this season. Jhonny Peralta is still the minimum on FanDuel. Stack up your Cardinals as you can afford him.
Other tagged players: Aledmys Diaz, Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta, Alfredo Simon Garcia has struck out just 10 of last 92 batters and faces one of the hottest offenses in baseball (158 wRC+ last seven days)
Jaime Garcia has struck out just 10 of 92 batters over his last four starts, but continues to keep the ball on the ground 62%, despite a 33.3% hit hard rate. That makes him hard to do much with in either direction in a daily fantasy setting. The Reds have kept pouring on the offense since leaving Coors last week and are still one of the hottest offenses in baseball (158 wRC+ over the last week). Each of the top six in this lineup have a wRC+ above 130 and a 35+ Hard% over the last week. Even Billy Hamilton hit a HR last night. This is still going to be a difficult pitcher to do much with if you can’t elevate and LHBs have just a 17.1 Hard% against him since last season. Joey Votto does have a 101 mph aEV against him (four batted balls) since last season, but also 10 Ks in 42 career PAs. Additionally, these aren’t cheap bats on either site. Potentially, Eugenio Suarez may be viable on FanDuel for $3K. He’s been the team’s top hitter vs LHP this season (169 wRC+, .283 ISO) and the hottest bat over the last week (261 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%). Additionally, Garcia compliment a higher priced pitcher for just $6.7K on DraftKings, but there’s not a lot of daily fantasy allure here.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto