DFS Alerts

Is Archie Bradley best value SP of the early slate?

Arizona SP Archie Bradley had a subpar rookie season but has shown signs of life in his last two starts. He’s one of the cheaper pitching options in the afternoon slate and provides good value against a Rays team that is 29th in K% against RHP this season. The other SP in the game, Jake Odorizzi, is better at home and has to face a decent Arizona lineup in their hitter friendly park – he’s best avoided. From the Tampa offense, Taylor Motter is a good value option leading off at a low price point. Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, and Logan Morrison are also secondary options. The top four of the Arizona lineup (Segura, Lamb, Goldschmidt, Peralta) are good options with Goldschmidt and Lamb the best of that group. Chris Herrmann is also in play at catcher batting sixth.

Tigers have highest run total of early four game slate

The Tigers bats are the clear cut top option for the early four game slate, especially if you believe Vegas which has given the team a run total of over five runs, more than 3/4 a run more than the next closest team. They face knuckleballer R.A. Dickey who has his moments of respectability but is generally someone to target hitters against (career wOBA’s approaching .320 to both sides of the plate). Victor Martinez and Cameron Maybin get the day off. Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, and J.D. Martinez are the Tigers bats that everyone will have their eyes on and will likely have high ownership as a result. Some players to target that will give you exposure to the team at a likely lower ownership are Mike Aviles (batting second at minimum price), Nick Castellanos (batting cleanup), and James McCann (at the always thin catcher position). Jordan Zimmermann will start for the Tigers and outside of one start against the Twins has not given up more than three runs in any start this season. He’s good at keeping the ball in the park but doesn’t have high K upside. You’d be better off going with Drew Pomeranz at a similar price point. That said, the Blue Jays bats are nothing more than secondary options today.

John Lackey looks to continue on impressive 2016 season against Phillies

Cubs SP John Lackey has certainly been impressive this season as he enters today with a .283 wOBA allowed to LH bats (23.9% K rate) and a .259 wOBA allowed to RH Bats (28.2% K rate) while showing a dramatic increase in K rate to both sides of the plate when compared to what he did in 2015. He faces a Phillies team today that while they aren’t as bad as you might think (ok, they probably are) has only one batter in their lineup today (Odubel Herrera at .406) topping a .350 wOBA against RHP. Lackey, along with Drew Pomeranz of the Padres, is one of the top SP options on the four game afternoon slate. A pitcher with as much upside as any (27.3% K rate vs LH bats and 29.8% K rate vs RH bats), Vincent Velasquez, will get the nod for the Phillies. While the upside is certainly there, the fact that he can’t make it past the fifth inning is cause for concern. Velasquez has three straight starts where he exited in the fifth inning. It’s hard to trust someone who gets the quick hook, especially going against a potent Cubs lineup. As usual, the top five (Fowler-Heyward-Bryant-Rizzo-Zobrist) are all in play for the Cubs. Miguel Montero is also a viable option at the C position batting seventh. The aforementioned Herrera is the only bat worth targeting from the Phillies.

Ketel Marte scratched; Shawn O'Malley will play shortstop and bat 9th

Ketel Marte has been scratched due to neck spasms. Shawn O’Malley will play SS in his place. O’Malley does not have a ton of upside at the bottom of the order.

Evan Longoria not in the lineup against Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke has really turned it around after a poor start to the season. His recent success has really caused his salary to spike and we’ll have to pay a premium on him today. Greinke struck out 11 batters in his last start and faces the Rays, who are tied for 2nd in the majors in K%. Greinke has a ton of upside in this matchup and is likely going to heavily owned across the industry. The Rays have a 3.6 run projection (3rd lowest) and will be without Evan Longoria tonight. Desmond Jennings will now bat third and is a relatively cheap bat with his salary only $2.8K on DraftKings. Even with the discount Jennings and the Rays are better off avoided and Greinke is a solid cash game lock. He’s playable in all league formats if you can afford it.

Check out the full breakdown for today’s games by following the link below.

Urias struggled in his first start, but has a 29.7 K% at AAA and his best matchup yet

Julio Urias struggled to command the strike zone in his first start, accustomed to getting a wider zone in the minors it was mentioned. In his 2nd start against the Cubs, three of his strikes left the park. This will be his most friendly test against a Rockies offense with a 24.0 K% vs LHP and 15.1 K-BB% on the road, though they do retain some power away from Coors (14.8 HR/FB). We might see something closer to his enormous 30% AAA strikeout rate tonight, which can pay off his low price (especially on DraftKIngs – $5.9K) even on a pitch count of 80 to 90. The usable Rockies bats (Arenado, Story) appear to be a bit expensive here at $5K on DraftKings, though Story (122 wRC+ road, 119 wRC+, .279 ISO vs LHP) is just $3.1K on FanDuel. Ryan Raburn hasn’t been as much as a lefty killer this year (104 wRC+), but is still hitting for power (.282 ISO vs LHP) and bats 2nd at an affordable price of less than $3.5K on either site.

Buster Posey scratched Tuesday, Trevor Brown will now catch and bat 8th

Belt, Crawford, Parker and Blanco will all move up one spot in the order. This is a decent boost for Belt and Crawford, but the Giants in general are not a terribly appealing offense to target against Rick Porcello.

Cody Anderson struck out nine of 26 in his last major league start and then 13 of 41 AAA batters

Cody Anderson pitched seven innings of one run baseball, striking out nine of 26 batters two weeks ago in his last start before a short trip to the minors, where he struck out 13 of the 41 batters he faced at AAA. He has a 12.2 SwStr% that suggests better than his 17.5 K% and did receive some hype this spring for increasing his velocity. HRs have been a major problem (he’s allowed 10), but you could do worse for $4.4K on DraftKings tonight. While he’s nowhere near a top pitcher tonight, this is a cheap arm with some upside in a good park, although he’s facing a dangerous offense with a 16.3 HR/FB in that park and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP, so we’re certainly not suggesting abandoning any Mariner bats you may like. Dae-Ho Lee has a 180 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs RHP and costs less than $3K somehow, while Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the most expensive bat ($4.1K on DK) against a pitcher with a .345 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season. Kyle Seager (124 wRC+, .192 ISO vs since 2015) is a top Third Base bat as well.

Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed 5 or more runs in five straight starts

Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled in his 11 starts this season but has been really poor in his last five games. He has allowed five or more runs in five straight games but not all of them have been earned Due to his struggles, a Royals stack could be a viable tournament play on a full slate. With so many good hitting options available, we can expect the ownership levels to be spread around tonight. Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain are the two most expensive batters in the lineup and deservedly so. Even though they struggled last night against Mike Wright, they have played well over the last couple weeks. Hosmer (.409 wOBA, 161 wRC+ L14) and Cain (.384 wOBA, 143 wRC+ L14) could be low-owned since they let their owners down last night. Salvador Perez also provided a nice big fat bagel but should be able to bounce back against Jimenez. Since the Royals are not known as a long ball team, a stack from the heart of the order would be the best way to get the most upside from this game. Jimenez has only been able to get out of the 5th inning in three out of his eleven starts, making him a pitching option that you do not want to consider. Jimenez has only struck out 13 batters in last 5 starts.

Arizona has a 17.4 HR/FB at home and 18.1 HR/FB vs LHP.

Matt Moore has gone just five innings with at least four runs and fewer than five strikeouts in three of his last four starts and faces an offense with a 17.4 HR/FB at home and an 18.1 HR/FB vs LHP with hard hit rates above 35% in both situations. Moore has allowed RHBs a .367 wOBA since last season with a 33.6 Hard% and hasn’t been much better vs RHBs (.335 wOBA, 35.8 Hard%). Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t been as potent this season (127 wRC+, .128 ISO vs LHP), but has a history of destroying lefties (170 wRC+, .220 ISO since 2015) and has to be considered a top (but expensive) First Base bat tonight. Welington Castillo (179 wRC+, .377 ISO vs LHP this season) may be the top catcher at an affordable price too ($3.5K or less). Yasmany Tomas may be an under the radar bat for less than $4K, who has been potent against LHP this year (169 wRC+, .308 ISO). Brandon Drury (110 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP) has been just an average bat, but with some power at a low price ($3.3K or less).

Aaron Blair has allowed a 415 wOBA to LHBs and has a -1.4 K-BB%

Aaron Blair has a -1.4 K-BB% in 31 big league innings and a 415 wOBA vs LHBs, which means we can even look at a few Padres in Petco against a RHP for once. Yangervis Solarte has been punishing RHP this year (141 wRC+, .200 ISO) for around $3.5K on either site. Brett Wallace (134 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since last season) is an affordable First Base option ($3K) should you need to save salary. Wil Myers (113 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the one RH bat worth a look. He has a 244 wRC+ and 40.7 Hard% over the last week.

Domingo Santana (169 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP) moves back to the two hole against Manaea

Sean Manaea is still a top prospect for the A’s and is coming off his best major league start, striking out eight of 26 Twins, but still has a 6.16 ERA with a 4.41 FIP and a .393 wOBA, 34.6 Hard% vs RHBs. His 1.0 GB/FB can get him into trouble in this park against a Milwaukee lineup that strikes out a bit less than you probably realize (22.3% vs LHP) and have a healthy 15.2 HR/FB at home. Domingo Santana might be one of the top value plays on the board moving back into the 2nd spot. He has a 169 wRC+ and .236 ISO vs LHP since last season and costs $3.5K on DK, $2.4K on FD. He has a 60 Hard% over the last week. Jonathan Villar (148 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Ryan Braun (166 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are two much more expensive, but very potent bats at the top of the lineup. Chris Carter (98 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has cooled, but still has some value out of the cleanup spot for $3.5K.

Kevin Roth has no ORANGE in the weather report but there is YELLOW in a handful of games. Additionally, we have some games being affected by the wind. Check out the full details at the link below!

Joe Ross has a .219 wOBA, 20.4 K-BB%, and 57.8 GB% vs RHBs

Joe Ross has a 2.37 ERA two runs below his estimators, but has completely dominated RHBs in his career (.219 wOBA, 20.4 K-BB%, 57.8 GB%), while being punished by LHBs (.341 wOBA, 6.3 K-BB%, 37.6 GB%). The problem for the White Sox here is that they don’t have many LH bats with just four in the lineup tonight and none of them have a wRC+ above 93 vs RHP this season. This makes Ross a daily fantasy candidate even with the large gap between his ERA and estimators. While he has a strikeout rate below league average (18.8%), his 10.2 SwStr% suggests he might be better, though he still might be a difficult call for nearly $10K on DraftKings. There’s little interest in any of the below average LH bats for Chicago, though Adam Eaton does have a 121 wRC+ vs RHP going back to last season.