DFS Alerts

Vegas expects a pitchers duel in today's Marlins-Rays game

Jose Fernandez and Drew Smyly take the mound today in a game that Vegas has given a paltry 6.5 run total to with the game being a relative pick ‘em. Fernandez has struggled with control against LH bats this season (17 BB’s in 25 IP) but fortunately for him the Rays only have two LH bats in their lineup and one of them is named Brad Miller. Against RH bats he has struck out almost two per inning (51K in 28 2/3 IP) which makes his upside in this match up extremely high. Smyly has been great for the Rays thus far this season averaging more than a K per inning with a wOBA allowed of <.295 to both sides of the plate. There is cause for concern, however, as his career wOBA allowed to RH bats is .320 and he faces a Marlins line up stacked with them (8 in total). Yea, it’s the Marlins (who are generally terrible on offense, especially with Giancarlo Stanton out and Dee Gordon suspended) but it’s still something to worry about if you’re considering using Smyly. If you are going to roster any bats from this game, Marcell Ozuna is swinging a hot bat right now (and his price tag shows it) and is worthy of consideration.

Gerrit Cole and Pirates largest favorites of early games

The Pirates host the Diamondbacks this morning and Vegas has them listed as the biggest favorites of the three morning games with their ace Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole hasn’t been as impressive as he was last season and has only pitched more than six innings twice. However, those two times were his last two starts and it looks as if he may be warming up as he has allowed only 3 runs in his last 21 innings of work. He’s definitely a risk as his high K upside doesn’t seem to be there (he struck out 0 in 7 innings his last start) but he does have a career 23%+ K rate so it’s the type of risk we can take in DFS, especially assuming lower ownership due to his recent struggles. While we won’t want to go overboard on using Arizona bats today there are a couple of intriguing options we can look at as secondary targets. Michael Bourn is batting second and in the three games he has started for Arizona has topped double digit (FanDuel) fpts each time. LH bats Jake Lamb and Chris Herrmann (especially at an always thin C position) are also worth a look and you can never rule out Paul Goldschmidt as an option. The Pirates face LHP Patrick Corbin who has been mashed by RH bats to the tune of a .345 wOBA allowed this season after allowing a .340 wOBA last season. The Pirates have loaded up with RH bats with 7 of their 8 hitters swinging from that side and any of their top six of the batting order are viable options today. David Freese is particularly compelling at a reduced price tag hitting third – he’s hit lefties extremely well (.456 wOBA) in limited AB’s (19) this season.

Mariners currently with the 3rd highest run projection (4.65)

The Mariners will be taking on Zach Neal, who is making his first major league start. Leonys Martin has been on fire (.512 wOBA L14) and has seen his salary spike accordingly. Still, Martin (.690 wOBA, 366 wRC+ over the last week) is an elite option in a more pitcher-friendly park. Robinson Cano (.370 wOBA, .212 ISO vs. RHP) and Nelson Cruz (.370 wOBA, .225 ISO vs. RHP) should also be considered elite options against the rookie but are over $5k on DraftKings, making it tough to stack multiple big bats unless you punt pitching (which is possible on this slate). Left-handed batter Seth Smith also deserves some tournament consideration in a Mariners stack because he is the cheapest bat atop the order. Smith (.344 wOBA, .187 ISO vs. RHP) has a .404 wOBA, 169 wRC+ at home this seaosn.

Puig sits as Kendrick plays OF against the Straily

It might mean more for Kazmir and the LA defense, but Yasiel Puig is being benched tonight, perhaps for his HR trot on a ball off the wall last night, but he wasn’t hitting RH pitching anyway. All eight Dodger bats are at least average (99 wRC+) against RHP since last season, though Turner, Grandal, and Kendrick have all fallen far below that mark this year (72 wRC+ or less). Focusing on the other six bats, Straily has no real platoon split (.305 wOBA vs RHBs, .295 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015). Trayce Thompson (138 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2015) continues to be a cheap source of offense ($3.3K or less). Joc Pederson is actually the top bat in the lineup vs RHP this season (154 wRC+, .268 ISO). Straily has a league average strikeout rate (20.6%), but his 11.6 BB% has kept him from going deep into games (just 6.1 innings once) and does not allow his 10.7 SwStr% to do even more. His 2.85 ERA is a bit or a BABIP (.230) and LOB (85.2%) mirage. The Dodgers have a bit of power in this lineup (13.0 HR/FB at home) and walks may lead to multi-run homers than can ruin an outing in one swing.

Sean Rodriguez to replace Josh Harrison in the Pirates lineup

Rodriguez will slot into Harrison’s spot in the order (6th). Harrison was reportedly scratched due to an illness, but there isn’t much more information available. Rodriguez isn’t a recommended DFS option against Rubby de la Rosa, a RH pitcher who fares much worse against LH bats.

Lowrie returns to Oakland lineup, bumps K.Davis down to 6th

Hisashi Iwakuma clearly seems to be a pitcher in decline with a higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate. From a batted ball standpoint, he’s normalized his HR rate (9.7 HR/FB), but is allowing more fly balls, evening everything out. A great park might help slow the decline and the A’s struggle a bit against RHP (89 wRC+). Iwakuma is not a pitcher to build around tonight (nobody is), but might be as good as anyone else who fits your remaining salary cap. The A’s get a LHB back tonight in Lowrie (80 wRC+ vs RHP since last season), but he doesn’t come close to replacing the one they lost (Reddick) and pushes Khris Davis (118 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) down to 6th tonight. Danny Valencia (129 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has cooled recently (39 wRC+, 17.4 Hard% last seven days), making Iwakuma look even better here and leaving Stephen Vogt (121 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as perhaps the most interesting bat in the lineup as a Catcher batting 3rd for $3K or less.

There are no risky games tonight, enjoy the GREEN. Check out the full analysis at https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Reds are the worst offense in baseball (63 wRC+) and coldest (38 wRC+ last seven days)

The Cincinnati Reds might be the best matchup on the board tonight as they can’t seem to muster any offense outside the cozy confines of their home park (63 wRC+, 6.0 HR/FB, 16.3 K-BB%). They have a 38 wRC+ and 20.2 K-BB% over the last week. Scott Kazmir may have scared investors off when he muffed another easy one against the Padres last week with seven walks and two HRs. In fact, he’s allowed 12 HRs on the year now (20.7 HR/FB), but still has an above average strikeout rate (21.1 K%, 9.8 SwStr%) and has never had a HR problem before (9.7 career HR/FB). He has now walked at least four in three starts, but no more than one in any of his other six starts. Kazmir may be a forgotten man in a great spot at a reasonable cost on a night where there is no top pitcher. Kazmir doesn’t have much of a platoon split career and has allowed LHBs (.332 wOBA) more offense than RHBs (.299 wOBA) since last season. If not using Kazmir, just two Reds hold interest. Zack Cozart (139 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHPs since 2015) is the only hot bat in the lineup (150 wRC+, 43.5 Hard% last seven days). Joey Votto has just a 42 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but still a 151 wRC+ since last season and has traditionally hit lefties well. While he has scuffled along with the rest of the Reds, he has hit the ball hard (58.8%) over the last week and costs just $3.5K tonight.

Manny Machado the leadoff hitter with Joey Rickard out of the lineup tonight; Jonathan Schoop batting 2nd

Collin McHugh has allowed a .335 wOBA to RHB over the last two seasons and allowed a .377 wOBA to them this season at home. Manny Machado (.391 wOBA, .256 ISO vs. RHP) is an elite option with multiple position eligibility and a reasonable salary. Machado will be the leadoff hitter for the 6th time this season, allowing for Jonathan Schoop to bat 2nd for the first time all season. Schoop has a .389 wOBA, 148 wRC+ over the last week and this season has a .342 wOBA, 115 wRC+ vs. RHP. Schoop is fairly priced across the industry and should be considered a discount option at 2B with all the other high-end choices available on the short slate. Chris Davis (.367 wOBA, 133 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) is the other bat over $4K in the Orioles lineup that can really do some damage. He has struggled over the last week (.186 wOBA, 5 wRC+) but that has also caused his salary to drop from a season-high $5,200 to a more playable $4,100 on DK.

Astros have a 50 wRC+ last seven days, but Wilson just an 11.9 K%, 4.87 SIERA

The Astros stay with George Springer (118 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the leadoff spot and Jose Altuve (116 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the 2nd spot as they try to ignite a stagnant offense (50 wRC+ over the last week). Tyler Wilson may or may not be the pitcher they do that against, but his 11.9 K% and 4.87 SIERA offer daily fantasy players nothing from a pitching perspective, even if his ERA is more than a run lower due to a .237 BABIP. Players are probably sick of Houston bats sinking them over the last week and there are really none that stand out at high costs here except for Colby Rasmus (111 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who can’t break $4K on either site. Wilson has offered no real platoon split (.307 wOBA vs LHBs, .305 vs RHBs).

Expensive Blue Jays in play at Yankee Stadium against Ivan Nova

Ivan Nova has allowed a .326 wOBA to RHB this season and has a low 14.6 K%. Nova has also walked 6.7% of the batters he’s faced and the Blue Jays are 6th in the Majors, 2nd in the AL with a 9.4 BB%. Jose Bautista is the most expensive outfielder available today and has a nice matchup against Nova. Bautista has a .419 wOBA and a 171 wRC+ over the last week and has seen his salary spike accordingly. With no real expensive pitching options available on the late slate, it is possible to stack multiple Jays, even though the top three hitters are over $4k on DraftKings. Josh Donaldson (.329 wOBA, 107 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) and Michael Saunders (.396 wOBA, 154 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) are the other two viable targets for tournaments. Edwin Encarnacion has swung the bat better against LHP this season.

Segura sits, Ahmed & Weeks top Arizona lineup vs lefty in Pittsburgh

Jeff Locke has pitched decently in three of his last five, but two of those were against Atlanta and Cincinnati, while a trip to Colorado is more impressive, lefties have often given that team trouble. Although in a friendly home park, he has just a 4.0 K-BB% and Arizona has a 116 wRC+, 37.8 Hard%, 18.7 HR/FB vs LHP. One of Locke’s issues is his ability to throw strikes (11.5 BB%) and the D’Backs have patience (9.7 BB% vs LHP). Arizona looks a bit different up top with Ahmed (105 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) and Weeks up top at mostly below $3K on the two major sites, but it’s still a formidable lineup with Goldschmidt (174 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Castillo (139 wRC+, .296 ISO vs LHP since 2015) following. Castillo (211 wRC+, .442 ISO vs LHP this year) look particularly strong as a catching option tonight.

Story sits as Rockies balance lineup against knuckleballer

Splits don’t really mean much against knuckleballers and in fact, Steven Wright has held both left and right handed batters to a wOBA just below .300 since last season. His performance has been strong (21.8 K%, 11.6 SwStr%) and has been daily fantasy worthy, but he’s the highest priced pitcher on the board tonight and the only one above $9K on either site.His 2.52 ERA sits well below his estimators and even if you give him a .250 BABIP (because knuckleballs), a 5.7 HR/FB seems unsustainable. It’s a difficult asking price tonight in an offensive environment, and though the Rockies still struggle on the road (89 wRC+), their 4.01 run expectation sits in the middle of the board. None of the Colorado bats really jump out and you never know how they’ll handle a knuckleball they might never have seen, but Nolan Arenado (129 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a reverse platoon split anyway and might be interesting here.

Brewers have 27.6 K% vs RHP and 33.5% last seven days

Mike Foltynewicz gets fewer swings and misses (7.6%) than most pitchers who throw 95 mph, but the Brewers will swing and miss more than enough for nearly any pitcher especially one who costs below $6.5K on such a weak slate tonight. He’s had control issues in the minors, but hasn’t walked a batter in three starts, but has allowed five HRs in just four starts overall. If players are not using Folty, we should note a career .421 wOBA vs LHBs that’s even higher this year (a .342 wOBA vs RHBs is no prize either). A few powerful Milwaukee bats aren’t entirely out of play here. Ryan Braun (127 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hits righties well as does Chris Carter (109 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since 2015) from a power perspective at least. Villar (97 wRC+), Gennett (87 wRC+) , and Nieuwenhuis (93 wRC+) haven’t been particularly proficient against RHP since last season, but face a pitcher that has no answer for LHBs for less than $4K each.

Rays 127 wRC+, 15.5 HR/FB vs LHP face Nicolino (4.9 K%)

Justin Nicolino has six strikeouts and a 3.1 SwStr% through five starts. His 4.30 ERA is still well below his estimators due to a .233 BABIP. The Rays have an implied run total of five tonight and could punish him with some strong RH bats against LHP. The top five (Guyer, Mahtook, Longoria, Pearce, Souza) are all stack worthy candidates with a wRC+ above 120 and ISO above .200 vs LHP since last season. Mahtook would be the bargain of the bunch ($3.2K on DK, $2K on FD), but is also the most likely to be PH for against a RHP. Pearce has pounded lefties for an even better 279 wRC+ and .447 ISO this season and costs below $4K on either site.