DFS Alerts

Moustakas DL'ed, Morales OUT for Royals against Miguel Gonzalez

Miguel Gonzalez struck out eight of these Royals in his last start, but his 7.5 SwStr% was actually his lowest mark of the season and he’d struck out just 11 of 76 batters previously. Kansas City is generally a good park for a fly ball pitcher, but Gonzalez won’t have the KC defense behind him and will even be lacking his normal OF defense with Eaton sitting. Gonzalez has a career 0.96 GB/FB with a 12.0 HR/FB. This is not a great park for power and we’ll have to keep an eye on the forecast. Eric Hosmer has a -42 wRC+ over the last week, but would be the most obvious bat with a 147 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since last season and Gonzalez’s ..353 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015. He doesn’t fare much better against RHBs either (.337 wOBA), so we’ll be looking at a few of those as well. Salvador Perez (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP this season) has been hammering the baseball (292 wRC+ last seven days) and is one tonight’s top bats behind the plate for less than $3.5K. Lorenzo Cain (100 wRC+, .115 ISO vs RHP this season) has under-performed, but is heating up (224 wRC+ last seven days). The unknown value bat here might be batting 6th. Paulo Orlando has a 141 wRC+ vs RHP this season and has a 238 wRC+ over the last week. He costs just under $3K.

Yelich, Stanton remain OUT, Dietrich down to 6th

Williams Perez has successfully been generating a lot of weak ground balls (4.7 Hard-Soft%, 59.2 GB%), but has just a 3.7 K-BB% and a .231 BABIP keeping his ERA below four. Lefties have pounded him for a .359 wOBA in his career, giving Justin Bour (129 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since last season) great value in the 3rd spot for just $3.5K. He has a 94.2 mph aEV this season. With Yelich and Stanton remaining out, Derek Dietrich (137 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) would the other strong play here at a similar cost, but Mattingly continues to drop him in the batting order in favor of much lesser hitters vs RHP.

Cubs favored by over 2.5 runs in lone Friday afternoon game; some weather concerns

In what is one of the biggest spreads we’ve seen all year, the Cubs enter today’s game against the Phillies as substantial favorites (-272) with Jon Lester taking the mound. While Lester, on paper, appears to be a lock and load play going against the Phillies woeful lineup, RotoGrinders.com Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has classified this game as a YELLOW/ORANGE meaning delays and postponement are possible/likely which makes Lester, and the game in general, a risky one, especially on an all day slate where this is the only afternoon game. If you are willing to take the risk, Lester is obviously in play as are the right-handed bats from the Cubs squaring off against Adam Morgan of the Phillies who allowed a .351 wOBA to RH hitters in 2015. The Cubs have given their LH bats (Rizzo and Heyward the day off) meaning they have all RH hitters in their lineup. Kris Bryant and Dexter Fowler are the top options with anyone else in the top six of the order also in play for a team that has a run total of over 5 1/2 runs.

The game between the White Sox and Royals has been postponed. If you are rostering any of these players, remove them from your lineups before they lock.

Roth's Weather Update: KC now Orange/Red, WAS now Yellow/Green

Kevin has shifted the CWS/KC game from Yellow/Orange to Orange/Red (which makes it a much riskier game to target, especially with pitchers), while the STL/WAS game has been upgraded from Yellow/Orange to Yellow/Green (making it a safer target for hitters and pitchers). Check out the full weather report by following the link below.

Wisler has 38.0 Hard%, Brewers have a 27.6 K% vs RHP

How DFS players attack this matchup depends on which site they’re playing on. On FanDuel, Matt Wisler costs just $6.5K and though he has just a 17.7 K% (7.7 SwStr%), we can look for the Brewers’ 27.6 K% vs RHP to push him up close to an average K% tonight. On DraftKings, however, he costs $9.1K where an average K rate might not cut. In this case, we look at the .230 BABIP holding down his ERA and see a 38.0 Hard% with a 0.74 GB/FB and realize how lucky his 6.5 HR/FB has been. While the Brewers swing and miss a ton, they do have some power (15.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Wisler has nearly a 100 point difference in his wOBA allowed (.367 vs LHBs, .276 vs RHBs career), so leadoff man Jonathan Villar (99 wRC+, .088 ISO vs RHP since 2015) does not have power, but has to be looked at as a SS batting leadoff from the left side for less than $4K. Wisler has allowed RHBs a 34.6 Hard% despite the lower wOBA, so we can still look at the RH bats who hit for power vs RHPs. Those, of course, are Ryan Braun (159 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP this year) and Chris Carter (128 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP this year). Kirk Nieuwenhuis hits 5th from the left side, but has shown less power this season (138 ISO vs RHP).

Astros with viable GPP bats vs. Kevin Gausman, who struggles against RHB (.365 wOBA)

The Astros will send continue to send out a right-handed top heavy lineup against their series finale. Springer (.344 wOBA, .170 ISO vs RHP) will be the leadoff hitter for the third consecutive game. He has a hit in both games that he has started at the top of the order and has a .399 wOBA over the last 14 days. Jose Altuve has struggled over the past week and has also stranded 8 runners in this series. Even though there are no elite pitching options on this short slate, Altuve’s $5.1K on DraftKings is not recommended for cash games. With ownership levels that could be lower due to his recent slump, Altuve is still a viable GPP option on a short slate due to his upside. Carlos Correa is also in a bit of a slump (.248 WOBA L14) but has a .359 wOBA vs. RHP and is now at $4k on DraftKings, which is down from a season-high of $5k, which he hit recently. Kevin Gausman has been elite against LHB (.157 wOBA) in 6 starts but continues to struggle vs RHB. The Astros have the 6th highest run projection out of the remaining 10 teams and could be a sneaky stack with weather issues on the slate.

Moustakas DL'ed, Morales OUT for Royals against Miguel Gonzalez

Miguel Gonzalez struck out eight of these Royals in his last start, but his 7.5 SwStr% was actually his lowest mark of the season and he’d struck out just 11 of 76 batters previously. Kansas City is generally a good park for a fly ball pitcher, but Gonzalez won’t have the KC defense behind him and will even be lacking his normal OF defense with Eaton sitting. Gonzalez has a career 0.96 GB/FB with a 12.0 HR/FB. This is not a great park for power and we’ll have to keep an eye on the forecast, but might have to look towards Royal bats with 2nd highest run projection tonight (4.7). Eric Hosmer has a -42 wRC+ over the last week, but would be the most obvious bat with a 147 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since last season and Gonzalez’s ..353 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015. He doesn’t fare much better against RHBs either (.337 wOBA), so we’ll be looking at a few of those as well. Salvador Perez (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP this season) has been hammering the baseball (290 wRC+ last seven days) and may be tonight’s top catcher bat. Lorenzo Cain (100 wRC+, .115 ISO vs RHP this season) has under-performed, but is heating up (223 wRC+ last seven days). The unknown value bat here might be batting 6th. Paulo Orlando has a 141 wRC+ vs RHP this season and has a 237 wRC+ over the last week. He costs just $3K.

Duffy limited to 80 pitches against White Sox, but it might be enough

Danny Duffy has gone three and 4.1 innings in each of his first two starts, but they’ve been effective innings (5 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 7 K – 29 BF). He’s on an 80 pitch limit tonight, but in a neutral matchup at home that might be enough for $5.7K on DraftKings if Kevin gives us a favorable report tonight (there was some concern for this game in the morning forecast). Adam Eaton sits out against the lefty tonight, but another issue we run into with Chicago bats is that the Royals are a decently sized favorite here (-154) and will likely be mixing and matching with the top of their bullpen by the 6th inning. Todd Frazier (135 wRC+, .335 ISO vs LHP since 2015) would be the most potent bat, but costs $5K on DraftKings.

Slumping Trumbo dropped to 6th against McCullers

Lance McCullers was better in his 2nd start, striking out seven of 25 Rangers through six innings (two runs) than in his first start back from the DL this season against Boston. He still has come control issues (three walks in each start and a double digit walk rate in every stop in the minors), but does have tremendous upside against a struggling lineup (74 wRC+ over the last week) and players have to pick at least one pitcher tonight. The Orioles have a ton of power (16.2 HR/FB vs RHP, 16.3 HR/FB on the road), but also a 23.1 K% vs RHP. One hidden concern might be that Baltimore has struggled this last week against several soft tossing RHPs (Shoemaker, Weaver, Fister, McHugh), but were previously dominating righties and McCullers is a different animal with a 94 mph fastball. Looking at Baltimore bats, none are above $4.1K on either site, so although cost saving might not be a consideration tonight, this might be an interesting way to go if you think the O’s will do better against harder stuff. McCullers has allowed righties a higher wOBA (.306 vs .283), though been difficult to hit from either side. Manny Machado might have the most significant reverse platoon split in the majors (149 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since last season) and would be a top play (with SS eligibility on DK) if not using McCullers tonight. Chris Davis (156 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for under $4K and Matt Wieters (141 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP this season) at $3K could also be considered. A slumping Mark Trumbo (10 wRC+ over the last week) has been dropped to 6th tonight.

Carpenter, Holliday, Grichuk all OUT as Cardinals line up lefties vs Ross

Matt Carpenter is on paternity leave, but Holliday and Grichuk sit tonight as well because Joe Ross has a major platoon split (.345 wOBA vs LHBs, .225 vs RHBs). While the initial thought was that Carpenter’s absence would give him a boost, that doesn’t appear the case with the Cardinals severely altering their lineup to match up against him with just three RH bats. These are all LH bats with a 107 wRC+ or better vs RHP since last season too with just Kolten Wong (80 wRC+) dropping below that mark this year. Jeremy Hazlebaker (128 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP) hasn’t gotten much playing time recently, but gets a major bump at leadoff for less than $4K on DK and $3K on FD. Matt Adams (162 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) and Brandon Moss (138 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP this season) are both red hot bats (200+ wRC+ over the last seven days each) who are strong overall and value plays tonight for less than $3.5K. Aledmys Diaz is on the tougher side of the platoon split, but is still an affordable SS hitting 2nd with a 156 wRC+ and .252 ISO vs RHP. Ross has spiked a double digit SwStr% in three of four starts, which is encouraging, but his struggles with LHBs against a good offense from either side of the plate makes him a difficult sell for $8K tonight.

Buchholz has just a 4.9 K-BB% with a GB% 10 points less than his career rate

Clay Buchholz went from being a pitcher expected to regress towards his estimators to one who’s underlying performance has been so bad, they now nearly meet his 5.92 ERA. His strikeout rate is way down (15.5%) and his walk rate up significantly (10.6%) with a 37.0 GB% that’s more than 10 points below his career average. He’s allowed exactly five runs in five starts. The Rockies have an 88 wRC+ on the road and 87 wRC+ vs RHP, but this is not a pitcher to be trusted or even necessary tonight at his $5K price tag on DraftKings. The issue with the Colorado lineup is that several of their more competent hitters are priced as if they’re playing at home. Only Charlie Blackmon has a wRC+ above 81 over the last week (116) and the one formidable bat against RHP, Nolan Arenado (128 wRC, .302 ISO + since 2015, 119 wRC+, .244 ISO this season) costs $4.9K on DraftKings and $4K on FanDuel. Carlos Gonzalez has disappointed this year (109 wRC+, .175 ISO vs RHP), but does cost less than $4K on either site.

Braves have 72 wRC+ vs RHP, but Peralta a 6.55 ERA, 4.0 SwStr% over the last month

Wily Peralta has just a 4.0 SwStr% with a 6.55 ERA over the last month, averaging a HR per start in which he’s even completed six innings just once. It’s unfortunate that he offers very little in the best matchup of the night. Freddie Freeman (137 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is still the team’s best hitter in a down year and your best option for a decent point total at a moderate cost. We could additionally look at some cheaper RH bats in the top half of the lineup, who are likely to be low owned, though Peralta has allowed a wOBA above .380 to batters from either side since last season. Gordon Beckham (154 wRC+ vs RHP this season) and Tyler Flowers (99 wRC+ vs RHP this season) both have favorable lineup spots for about $2.5K, but the question may be if players even need the salary relief tonight. Leadoff man Ender Inciarte is priced a bit higher and has struggled out of the gate this season (59 wRC+ vs RHP). Nick Markakis had been batting cleanup recently, but gets the night off.

Bradley leads off with Betts OUT against Jonathan Gray

Jonathan Gray pitched his worst game of the season against the only other offense that hits RHP nearly as well as this Red Sox lineup (127 wRC+). They are a juggernaut few pitchers have been able to stop, especially at home (136 wRC+). Gray has shown tremendous upside in his previous starts, striking out at least eight in three of his last five. With a cost reduced by over $2K on DraftKings since his last outing, players looking for an inexpensive arm with upside would need a high risk tolerance, but could reap a major reward if Gray pitches to his upside at low ownership rates. He probably holds too much risk for cash games/double ups. The absence of regular leadoff man Mookie Betts shouldn’t hurt too much, especially with Jackie Bradley Jr. (172 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP this season) taking his place. He is a top value play for $4K atop the lineup with the highest run projection (5.3). David Ortiz (205 wRC+, .389 ISO vs RHP this season) remains on fire (305 wRC+, 53.3 Hard% last seven days) and may be the top overall bat tonight and worth the price even at a cost above $4.5K on either site. Bogaerts, Shaw, and Pedroia all hit RHP for a 130 wRC+ or better this season and appear of moderate value between $3.5K to $4.5K on either site.

Murphy sits against Leake

Mike Leake has a 5.5 SwStr% and 35.5 Hard%. He’ll generally keep the ball on the ground (52.2% this year), but when he doesn’t, it often goes a long way (14.3 HR/FB this year, 13.7 HR/FB career). There’s not really enough upside to cover his $7.3K cost on DraftKings, but it could be closer for $6.6K on FanDuel, especially with the needle moving a bit towards his Win potential with one of the two batters who can handle RHP out of the lineup tonight (Murphy). Bryce Harper is the only useful bat in this lineup. He has a 196 wRC+ at home and 195 wRC+ vs RHP since last season with a .339 ISO. Those numbers are a bit less this year 151 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP as he’s pitched around and might be even less likely to see hitable pitches without Murphy batting cleanup. There is not another bat in the lineup with a wRC+ above 92 vs RHP since last season.