DFS Alerts
Beltran has a 99 mph aEV vs Estrada in 11 batted ball events since 2015
Since statcast started tracking exit velocity last season, Carlos Beltran (130 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has put bat to ball 11 times against Marco Estrada with an average exit velocity of 99.3 mph. He has homered three times against him 24 ABs. He is the hottest Yankee bat (272 wRC+) and probably the one most worth owning tonight. Marco Estrada has done a good job of missing bats this year (24.2 K%, 11.0 SwStr%), but carries an ERA (2.61) much lower than his estimators due to a career low 6.7 HR/FB. He’s a fly ball pitcher who has allowed well over 20 HRs in fewer than 200 innings in each of the last two years and is not a pitcher you want to pay $8.4K for in Yankee Stadium. Besides Beltran, McCann (113 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since last season) is an interesting bat in the cleanup spot at a difficult position for $3.5K or less. Gardner (148 wRC+ vs RHP this year) and Ellsbury (132 wRC+ vs RHP this year) are both setting the table well for the Yankees, but offer less power at a slightly higher cost. Mark Teixeira, who has three HRs in nine ABs vs Estrada, sits tonight.
Other tagged players: Marco Estrada, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner
Kang OUT against Rubby de la Rosa in Pittsburgh
Rubby de la Rosa has improved upon his issues against LHBs (.404 wOBA, 20 HRs 2015 – .250 wOBA, 1 HR 2016), but the Pirates have just two in the lineup and are a difficult matchup more due to making contact (18.1 K% vs RHP) and plate discipline (9.1 BB% vs RHP). de la Rosa has an 8.2 BB% near his 8.5% career rate and that could pose some problems here against an offense with a 122 wRC+ at home and 116 wRC+ vs RHP. A $6.7K price tag on FanDuel is more reasonable than his $7.6K in a tough spot on DraftKings. Players can still look to a couple of strong LH bats atop the Pittsburgh lineup here. Gregory Polanco (157 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this year) may be their best bat this year, but John Jaso (136 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is more affordable atop the lineup. Both have a wRC+ above 160 over the last week. Andrew McCutchen has struggled a bit more (118 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this year), but both he and Starling Marte (149 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP in 2016) in the cleanup spot today are a bit discounted from normally higher prices at $4.3K or less.
Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, John Jaso, Rubby De La Rosa Guerra (24.7 K%, 13.0 SwStr%) faces worst home offense in baseball (64 wRC+)
Junior Guerra struck out 11 Cubs in his last start to bring his strikeout rate up to 24.7% through four starts. While we can’t expect them all to be that good, he’s gone at least six innings in all four starts and backs up his strikeouts with a 13.0 SwStr%. The Braves have absolutely no power (4.1 HR/FB at home, 4.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and the lowest home wRC+ (64) in baseball. At just under $7.5K on either site, Guerra may be tonight’s top pitcher in a great matchup. It’s not that he’s so good that you should look to avoid him, but the Braves just fail to offer a decent bat at an attractive price. Freddie Freeman (141 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) would seem adequately priced ($4.4K on DK, $3.3K on FD).
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Bradley up to 6th for highest projected offense tonight (5.49 runs)
The Red Sox have tonight’s highest projected run line tonight (5.49) and with not a single pitcher that needs to be built around tonight, you can expect the Boston bats (135 wRC+ at home, 127 wRC+ vs RHP, 134 wRC+ last seven days) to be extremely popular. Jackie Bradley Jr. (171 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP this year) moves up another spot to 6th as the Red Sox try to protect his hitting streak. The odd thing is that Chad Bettis has actually been a bit better against LHBs (.312 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015) than RHBs (.333 wOBA), though neither mark is terrible for a Colorado pitcher. This is still a lineup you’ll want a lot of exposure to. Mookie Betts (132 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP this year) and David Ortiz (206 wRC+, .390 ISO vs RHP this year, 61.9 Hard% last seven days) are two of the top bats overall and very likely to be worth their high price tags. Pedroia (133 wRC+ vs RHP this season) and Bogaerts (131 wRC+ vs RHP this season) are strong middle infield candidates as well. Each of the batters mentioned has a wRC+ above 160 over the last seven days. Additionally, Travis Shaw brings a 164 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP to the 7th spot.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Chad Bettis, Travis Shaw Stanton and Yelich both OUT Wednesday night
Matt Andriese has a 2.11 ERA through three starts, but a 4.77 SIERA due to a .167 BABIP and 3.8 HR/FB. He’s struck out just 14.1% of batters on an 8.3 SwStr%, but a few more last year (17.4%) with the same SwStr%. His 18.1 Hard-Soft% suggests more offensive damage might be on the way with a cost above $7.5K on either major site difficult to justify. The Marlins will sit their normal 3rd and 4th hitters, though Stanton has been doing nothing but strike out recently anyway. A more disappointing move might be Derek Dietrich (134 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) dropping down to 5th because Ichiro Suzuki (55 wRC+, .033 ISO vs RHP since 2015) profiles more as a leadoff hitter after a 228 wRC+ over the last week. He does cost just $2.5K or less though. Andriese has held RHBs to a .274 wOBA since last season, so if we’re staying with LHBs, Dietrich would be one playable bat, but perhaps the bigger value is Justin Bour (128 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2015) moving into the three hole for less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Matt Andriese, Derek Dietrich, Ichiro Suzuki Denard Span scratched on Wednesday
Gregor Blanco will now leadoff while Kelby Tomlinson will take over in left field. Blanco becomes a viable punt play at or near minimum price across the industry against a righty who has had struggles with left-handed bats.
Buster Posey gets the day off - is Peavy actually playable?
The Giants are resting their star catcher and Jake Peavy, despite being awful all season, looks like a playable SP today facing a woeful Padres offense at home as a significant favorite. That said, we can still look at the Padres as a contrarian stack option given how awful Peavy has been. The 2-5 hitters (Upton, Kemp, Wallace, Myers) are the only four in their lineup with wOBA’s vs RHP topping .300 and they’d be the four to target. The Giants get a decent match up against James Shields who is extremely vulnerable to LH bats (.367 wOBA vs them last two seasons). The Giants have a lot of LH bats in today’s lineup (six of the first seven) and all are viable options today. Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford are the top tier with Denard Span, Jarrett Parker, and Gregor Blanco secondary targets.
As reported by: Giants official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Jake Peavy, Joe Panik
Jake Arrieta (as usual) top SP option in today's slate
Despite taking on a tough-as-nails Cardinals team, Arrieta is as usual the top SP option in today’s slate. He enters today with a 1.29 ERA, 3.23 SIERA, and 26.7% K rate. You can safely avoid all the Cardinals bats today. Carlos Martinez does not look like the same pitcher this season as he has a 4.34 SIERA and his K rate has dipped dramatically from last season’s 24.4% to just 17.9%. He’s struggled to get LH bats out which is good news for the Cubs as they have loaded up with six of those in today’s game. Any of those bats are in play today with Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist the top options of that group.
As reported by: Cubs official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, Dexter Fowler Hitting should rule the day in Angels vs Rangers game
Vegas thinks runs will be scored today in Texas as they have given this game a 9.5 run total, the highest of all the early games. With Hector Santiago and Colby Lewis on the mound, it’s easy to see why. Santiago started off great for the Angels but has predictably regressed as the season has gone on – he’s vulnerable to giving up the long ball which bodes well for Rangers bats at home. Lewis’s numbers (2.75 ERA) would suggest he has pitched well but a closer look (.261 BABIP, LOB% of 92.3%) tell a story of a pitcher who’s been rather lucky thus far and is due for regression. Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, and Albert Pujols are all top options from the Angels side and if you’re looking to stack the Angels any of the rest of the top six are in play. For the Rangers, start with Adrian Beltre who is an elite option whenever he faces a LHP prone to giving up HR’s. Ian Desmond is also a top play and Ryan Rua is intriguing today batting sixth at his price point. Not as favorable but contrarian and in a good spot today is the LH bat of Rougned Odor (who might have some time off after today).
As reported by: Ryan Posner on Twitter Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond Pitching should rule the day in Indians vs White Sox game
Two of the better SP’s in the AL take the mount today in Chicago with Corey Kluber starting for the visiting Indians and the somewhat surprising Jose Quintana getting the nod for the home team. Kluber hasn’t been as impressive as he was in 2015 but still enters today with a 3.35 SIERA and 24%+ K rate. Quintana has a sub 2 ERA with a 3.50 SIERA and 22.8% K rate. Both pitchers are excellent options on today’s afternoon slate facing teams that struggle to hit the ball (both bottom 10 in wOBA and ISO against the handedness of the SP they are facing today). Mike Napoli and his .392 wOBA and .263 ISO vs LHP is the only bat on the Indians worth a serious look against Quintana while Adam Eaton is really the only bat to target (if you’re looking for a contrarian plug in) from the White Sox side.
As reported by: White Sox official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, Mike Napoli Royals visit Twins in what should be high scoring game - some PPD potential
Kevin Roth has labeled the Royals-Twins game as ORANGE so know that there is potential for delays and/or postponements before rostering any players from either team. Both SP’s, Dillon Gee for KC and Tyler Duffey for MIN, struggle against LH bats. The fortunate news for Gee is the Twins don’t have many of those so he has sneaky GPP potential in a game that Vegas sees as one of the higher scoring affairs of the day. Robbie Grossman is one of those LH bats and batting fifth at near minimum price is an intriguing option from the Twins side of things. You can also target Joe Mauer along with the usual suspects Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. The Royals also don’t have many LH bats in their lineup (just Eric Hosmer who is a great option) but they are the type of team that will give a pitcher like Duffey trouble. Whit Merrifield, Paulo Orlando, and Lorenzo Cain are the best options for them today.
As reported by: LaVelle Neal on Twitter Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Robbie Grossman Bryce Harper gets the day off as Nationals take on Steven Matz
What was already a favorable spot for Mets SP Steven Matz is even more so after the Nationals posted their Bryce Harper-less starting lineup. The Nationals are going heavy RH bats with Daniel Murphy being the only LH bat in their lineup but Matz has actually performed better against RH bats over his short two year career. He’s one of the top SP options of the day, especially if you’re going the fade Arrieta route. The aforementioned Murphy actually makes for a nice contrarian play as he has shown the ability to fare well against southpaws and Matz has a career .323 wOBA allowed to LH bats. The Nationals bring Tanner Roark to the mound and while he has struggled at times he has also allowed 1 run or less in 4 of his last 6 starts (striking out 35 in those four starts) so he has the upside we look for when targeting cheaper SP options. He’s in play today for sure but we can still target Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes in a spot where they will likely be under owned because of the match up.
As reported by: Jamal Collier on Twitter Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Daniel Murphy Can Aaron Nola continue to impress in Detroit?
Nola had a somewhat disappointing introduction to the majors last season but the highly touted prospect has been anything but that this season as he enters today’s game with the Detroit Tigers with an impressive <.240 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate and a unprecedented for him K rate of 29.8% vs RH bats (24.6% vs LH bats). While he is definitely in play today, especially in GPP’s given his upside, we have to temper our expectations today facing a potent Tigers offense in their hitter-friendly park. The Tigers are without Ian Kinsler (illness) for the second straight day so that does help Nola’s cause a bit but with a projected run total of nearly 4 1/2 runs we can still target Tiger bats like Cameron Maybin who has scored double digit fpts (on FanDuel) in all but one of his last eight games. The other four in the top five of the batting order (J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Nick Castellanos) are also options if you want to look the Tigers way. The anemic Phillies offense gets to face the woeful Anibal Sanchez (over .355 wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate this season) making for some intriguing options if you can muster up the courage. Odubel Herrera and his .420 wOBA vs RHP this season is the obvious top option with the rest of the top seven of the batting order in play solely due to their price and match up.
As reported by: Phillies official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Cameron Maybin, Odubel Herrera Samardzija has gone at least 7.2 innings each of last four, striking out eight or more three times
It’s not often you’re happy to pay more than $10K for Jeff Samardzija, but he has pitched at least 7.2 innings in each of his last four starts, allowing a total of five runs, with at least eight strikeouts three times and faces the worst offense vs RHP (66 wRC+, 24.9 K%). The Padres played 17 innings Sunday, following another extra inning game Saturday, before being shut down by Johnny Cueto last night and have a 25 wRC+ over the last week. Additionally, one of their top bats, Wil Myers is out tonight. Samardzija is a top pitcher tonight with no San Diego bats of interest with Wallace (132 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the only above average hitter over the last week (124 wRC+, 40.0 Hard%) batting 6th. The Padres have tonight’s lowest run projection (2.8).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brett Wallace LHB in play for the Giants against Andrew Cashner
Andrew Cashner has allowed a .324 wOBA vs. LHB in his career and has a 4.93 ERA this season. Denard Span (.364 wOBA vs. RHP in 2016) and Joe Panik (.364 wOBA vs. RHP in 2016) are both viable tournament targets with their salary set at $3,800 on DraftKings. Span has put up a bagel in three out of his last four games, so it is a little surprising to see his salary at a season-high. Due to the matchup, Span is still a nice play as the leadoff hitter. Panik (.171 ISO vs. RHP) has a .344 wOBA L14, also making him a viable tournament target. It’ll be tough to stack the Giants due to their recent struggles at the plate. They have been carried mostly by their pitching and Jeff Samardzija should be able to get a win for them at home against the lowly Padres.
Other tagged players: Joe Panik, Andrew Cashner, Jeff Samardzija