DFS Alerts
Eovaldi allows .356 wOBA to LHBs since 2015, but D'Backs stack RHBs
Phil Gosselin (111 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) bats 2nd instead of Chris Herrmann (OUT) tonight against Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed a .356 wOBA to LHBs since 2015, but just a .292 wOBA to RHBs. A cost well below $3K in a great lineup spot in a great park still makes him valuable here, though little else in the lineup seems interesting now against a pitcher who has allowed a HR in each of his last three starts with just three strikeouts in two of his last three. The nearly entirely RH lineup now makes Eovaldi at least a bit interesting for $6.8K on DraftKings, though his FanDuel cost is $1.9K higher. Paul Goldschmidt (152 wRC+, .245 ISO vs RHP since 2015) isn’t putting up his normal numbers, but remains in play at home at a slightly reduced, but still expensive cost. Jake Lamb (112 wRC+, .167 ISO vs RHP) has homered in back to back games and is a bat of interest as the only LHB in the lineup tonight.
Other tagged players: Nathan Eovaldi, Phil Gosselin, Paul Goldschmidt
Cardinals have just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP
The Cardinals have a 91 wRC+ vs LHP and just an 83 wRC+ with a lot of the same players last season. In fact, just Stephen Piscotty (169 wRC+, .229 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Aledmys Diaz (135 wRC+ vs LHP) in a smaller sample, have a wRC+ above 111 vs LHP since last season. Piscotty is definitely a bat worth looking at and Randal Grichuk (106 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP) for less than $3.5K in the cleanup spot has some value as well. While still not expecting a strong performance here, Chris Rusin has a league average SwStr% and a 3.45 SIERA this season. Players wouldn’t need much (10 to 12 points) for just $4.6K as their 2nd pitcher on DraftKings to have him pay off. Pairing him with your highest expected upside pitcher in a GPP would leave you plenty to for a potent offense.
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Chris Rusin Jimmy Nelson has a 9.0 BB%, 16.0 HR/FB in 2016, .360 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015
Players may be hesitant to jump back on the Cubs after Chase Anderson nearly no hit them last night, but they have the 2nd highest run projection tonight (4.75) against a pitcher with a 9.0 BB% and 16.0 HR/FB with a SwStr below 7% this season. The Cubs have an 11.9 BB% vs RHP and while Nelson has held RHBs to a .264 wOBA since last season, lefties have hammered him for a .360 wOBA. A struggling Anthony Rizzo (152 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since last season) remains a top overall bat tonight with Zobrist and Fowler (115 wRC+ vs RHP each since 2015) provide decent value from the 1st and 5th slots and Jason Heyward (119 wRC+ vs RHP) maybe a bit more with a 170 wRC+ over the last week for under $4K. If you’re looking for an inexpensive middle infielder, Tommy La Stella (133 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) runs the risk of being pinch hit for, but is a stronger bat than many realize against RHP.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, Jimmy Nelson Donaldson OUT vs Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi has allowed just 18 HRs at home in his career, four in his last two home starts and one of those against the Blue Jays. He has allowed 30 HRs on the road in his career and all six of his HRs this year have been served up to RHBs, making this a difficult spot for basically a league average pitcher on the road, even if the Blue Jays aren’t as fearsome this season with just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP. Josh Donaldson has three HRs in 18 PAs vs Odorizzi and a 98.6 aEV in seven batted balls since last season, making the day off a bit puzzling. It also gives Odorizzi a slight bump, but may not move the needle enough to make this a favorable spot for him. The bat we want to look at now is the red hot Jose Bautista (149 wRC+, .296 ISO vs RHP since 2015). He has a 228 wRC+ over the last week. Also consider Troy Tulowitzki, who has been just average vs RHP since last season, but has a 188 wRC+ over the last week and is less than $4K. Odorizzi has held LHBs to a .264 wOBA since last season (RHBs .339).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Troy Tulowitzki, Jake Odorizzi Colon allows lots of hard contact (26.5 Hard-Soft%), but Nationals have an 83 wRC+ vs RHP
Bartolo Colon was hit hard in his last start with a 57.9 Hard% and two HRs against the Dodgers with a season low three strikeouts, but even at his worst, he won’t compound issues with walks, usually giving players who roster him at least something at an average or better cost. With a concerning 26.5 Hard%, Harper (197 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and/or Murphy (134 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) could find longball success and may be top, but costly bats at their position. The Nationals still have just an 83 wRC+ vs RHP this year though, because no RHB in the lineup hits RHP at even an average rate (all below 90 wRC+ since last season).
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy LHBs Dickerson and Miller OUT for Rays against Dickey
The Rays run out a right-handed top four against the knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (4.31 ERA, 4.51 SIERA, 16.8 K%), but Dickey has actually allowed a slightly higher .318 wOBA to righties since last season. That doesn’t explain why Steve Pearce is also out of the lineup too though as Steven Souza (105 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hits cleanup. Brandon Guyer (109 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Evan Longoria (95 wRC+ vs RHP) are both swinging hot bats (163 and 214 wRC+ over the last week respectively) and can provide value for less than $4K near the top of the lineup, while Taylor Motter is an unknown for under $3K batting 2nd.
Other tagged players: Steven Souza, R.A. Dickey, Taylor Motter, Evan Longoria Tillman has a 26.0 K% and 10.6 SwStr%, but unsustainable 2.1 HR/FB with a higher walk rate (9.9%)
Chris Tillman may have made some real improvements and has a 26.0 K% on a 10.6 SwStr%, but a 2.1 HR/FB is entirely unsustainable, while a 9.9 BB% nearly matches his DraftKings cost today ($9.7K) and is concerning against an offense with a 16.9 HR/FB on the road and 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Additionally, five batters through the middle of the lineup (2nd to 6th) have a wRC+ of 118 or higher and ISO of .186 and higher vs RHP since last season. Nelson Cruz (139 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 265 wRC+ over the last week and 168 wRC+ on the road since last season. He has two HRs off Tillman in 14 PAs, remaining a top bat tonight, while the other spots mentioned retain a moderate amount of value though a seemingly improved Tillman is not the top pitcher on the attack list tonight.
Other tagged players: Chris Tillman Braves have a 48 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs LHP with the lowest run projection tonight
While Atlanta may now be a bit more competent against RHP, they have a league low 48 wRC+ with a 25.6 K% and 4.7 HR/FB vs LHP. Francisco Liriano may not be the most consistent pitcher in the league, but a beating at the hands of the Cubs last time out is much different than facing the Braves at home and earlier season struggles may have coincided with a hamstring injury. He does have an odd 18.1 HR/FB at home since last season, but also a 28.0 K% and -2.5 Hard-Soft% with the HR rate not as worrisome with a high ground ball rate. As long as he can throw enough strikes, he could dominate here and has top of the board upside tonight. Atlanta, as expected, has the lowest run projection tonight with no bats of interest.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Walker has been good, but Orioles have a 124 wRC+, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP
Taijuan Walker (2.63 ERA, 3.07 SIERA, 24.4 K%) has pitched well and there may even be some merit with his $7.1K cost on DraftKings, but he has a double digit HR rate the last two seasons and the Orioles have a 124 wRC+ with a 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP. This is not really a pitcher we’re looking to attack, but a red hot Chris Davis (305 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% over the last week) pummels RHP (163 wRC+, .343 ISO since last season) and is a major threat to take anyone deep. Adam Jones (118 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been just as hot (307 wRC+, 50.0 Hard%) for about $500 less on either site.
Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Adam Jones Santana sits in NL park and Napoli's 148 wRC+ vs LHP since last season
Brandon Finnegan seems to have stunted in his development this season (4.7 K-BB%) and allowing at least three runs in each of his last five starts with eight HRs allowed in eight starts. Mike Napoli remains in the lineup with Carlos Santana sitting in an NL park perhaps due to his 148 wRC+ and .262 ISO vs LHP since last season. Or maybe it’s his 162 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week. These numbers make Napoli a potential 1B force tonight, though at in increased cost. Francisco Lindor (151 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP) is the other particularly strong bat against southpaws. Cleveland has the 3rd highest run projection of the evening (4.47).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Finnegan Mike Clevinger makes his major league debut in Cincinnati
Mike Clevinger is a 25 year old #6 prospect for Cleveland according to Fangraphs, who had his development interrupted by Tommy John surgery before making his way to the upper minor league levels the last couple of seasons, where he’s retained an above average strikeout rate with occasional control issues. He may end up developing a couple of average to above pitches with solid command and finds himself in a decent enough spot to start his career in Cincinnati, though in a tough park where the Reds have a 17.3 HR/FB this year. With a lot of unknown here, players may want to stick the top LH bats of Joey Votto (156 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jay Bruce (100 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP), who has a 240 wRC+ over the last week, the only bat in today’s lineup with a wRC+ above 115 over that span.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Mike Clevinger Martin Perez on mound = stack the other teams bats
Rangers SP Martin Perez enters today’s start with a 5.24 SIERA and a walk rate (13.3%) that is close to his K rate of 14.3%. He gives up hard contact and is a sizable dog in this road match up with the A’s. Danny Valencia and Khris Davis (fresh off a 3 HR outing last night) are your top targets on the A’s with all the right-handed bats in the top seven of the order worthy of consideration. For the A’s, Rich Hill takes the mound and he’s one of the top two options on the early only slate even given a relatively tough opponent in the Rangers. He’s held opposing hitters from both sides of the plate to a less than .260 wOBA over his last 12 starts and comes in with a 28.7% K rate this season. The only Ranger worth a solid look is Adrian Beltre who brings a .394 wOBA and .228 ISO against LHP to the plate.
As reported by: Susan Slusser on Twitter Other tagged players: Martin Perez, Khris Davis, Adrian Beltre
Red Sox and Royals to square off in first game of day-night double header
It should be a good game as Vegas has the game as a near pick ‘em with Steven Wright taking the mound for Boston against Ian Kennedy for the Royals. Both SP’s have upside but also have tough match ups as the Red Sox are the highest scoring team in baseball and the Royals are always a team to avoid when it comes to using a SP. The usual suspects from the Red Sox at the top of their order (Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, and Shaw) are all secondary options and a viable team stack even in a pitcher friendly park. Eric Hosmer and his .389 wOBA vs RHP is the top option on the Royals with Lorenzo Cain (.422 wOBA over the last 14), Kendrys Morales (.224 ISO vs RHP), and Alex Gordon (.342 wOBA vs RHP) all being worth a look if you’re looking for a contrarian team stack.
As reported by: Pete Abraham on Twitter Other tagged players: Ian Kennedy, David Ortiz, Eric Hosmer Victor Martinez scratched from today's lineup
Martinez has been scratched from the starting lineup with Steven Moya taking his place and batting sixth. Moya is an excellent value option going up against Ricky Nolasco. He has hits in three of four games since being called up including two doubles and a triple.
As reported by: Jason Beck on Twitter Other tagged players: Steven Moya Target Detroit (pitching and hitters) in the early only slate
Justin Verlander and the Tigers offense are great options today, especially in the four game early only slate. Verlander has looked relatively good thus far in 2016 with a 3.81 SIERA and 24.4% K rate. He is prone to the long ball which makes some of the Twins bats like Eduardo Nunez, Byung Ho Park, and Miguel Sano viable GPP options but for the most part avoid Twins bats if you can. Ricky Nolasco has struggled against both sides of the plate and the top seven of the Tigers lineup are all in play with Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Miguel Cabrera leading the way.
As reported by: LaVelle Neal on Twitter Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Ian Kinsler