DFS Alerts

Wednesday's Top Pitchers May Also Be the Best Values

A seven game Wednesday night slate offers one clear top arm among many other flawed ones. Despite a short IL stint after his first start, Lucas Giolito is off to a great start with a 37.9 K% (18.6 SwStr%) through three starts, though he has walked six of 58 batters and allowed four barrels (13.3%). Early returns on the changeup are a 51.9 Whiff%. All estimators are below three and a half. The Cubs have a team 62 wRC+ and 31.5 K% over the last seven days, while the wind is once again blowing in from left at Wrigley (though not as hard as yesterday). Giolito threw 99 pitches in his last start, so you can’t even nitpick the workload. He’s the top projected pitcher on the board tonight (PlateIQ) and one of just two to reach the $10K price point (both on FanDuel). For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the one who may be a better value than Giolito, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog

Travis Demeritte scratched Wednesday

Travis Demeritte scratched Wednesday

Padres-Guardians postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Padres-Guardians postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Pirates-Tigers postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Pirates-Tigers postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Stack That Tops Today's Simulations Does Not Come From Coors

If you were expecting a Colorado runaway train tonight in terms of stacking projections, that’s not really the case, though they are the only team expected to be stacked in more than 10% of lineups on DraftKings tonight, though these numbers are subject to change as information roles in. Due to pricing, Detroit currently projects to be more popular on FanDuel, though no team reaches 9%. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, simulations don’t see either of the teams with the top two run lines at Coors smashing the slate all that often. Again, no team reaches a 9 Smash%, but the Angels (at Boston vs Michael Wacha) come closest. Detroit shows up with around a 15 Value% on either site right now, which is good enough for the top value stack on FanDuel, but a bit behind the Orioles (against Joe Ryan) on DraftKIngs, though it’s highly unlikely a lot of players will be pulling that latter trigger. For more on which stacks have the best Leverage Ratings, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Entire Lineup is too Cheap on FanDuel

So you’re paying up for pitching and need some value bats. The answer to that might be pretty straight forward on FanDuel, according to current projections (PlateIQ), and that’s simply to stack the Tigers against Bryse Wilson. He’s only recorded one fifth inning out over his three starts with eight runs allowed. A 3.1 K-BB% with a 90.3 mph EV is not going to keep anyone in a major league rotation for too long. A 4.49 DRA is his only estimator below a 4.70 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Wilson since last season. Jonathan Schoop (78 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Robbie Grossman (104 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Miguel Cabrera (94 wRC+, .140 ISO) are currently the top three projected point per dollar values on FanDuel (Bryan Reynolds is fourth in this same game). Of course, this is more due to price tag (all $2.6K or less) and matchup than their own production. The Tigers do own the fourth highest team run total on the board (4.61). Javier Baez (107 wRC+, .220 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup above $3K on FD, while Jeimer Candelario (114 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Akil Baddoo (118 wRC+, .212 ISO) are top 10 projected values as well.

Detroit also is one of just two teams featuring multiple top 10 projected values on DraftKings, one who doesn’t even make the list on FanDuel and that’s because Spencer Torkelson (100 wRC+, .136 ISO) costs $100 less on DraftKings. He’s joined by Grossman. Baez is the only one costing above $3.5K on DraftIngs as well. We also find both Franchy Cordero ($2.1K) and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2K) as top 10 values against Noah Syndergaard. This is purely a function of cost. Neither Syndergaard, nor Cordero have much in the way of volume the last couple of years, while Bradley has been very silent (31 wRC+ vs RHP). The top projected value on DraftKings is currently Jose Miranda at just $2K. Remember that Baltimore plays a bit more difficultly for RH power these days, but Bruce Zimmermann still has a 92.4 mph EV this year and Miranda makes top projected overall batters Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa much easier fits.

Entire Top Half of This Lineup Projects Strongly

In a scoring environment where four runs is the average after nearly a month’s worth of play, it still seems a bit light that only six teams on an 11 game slate reach 4.25 implied runs and only four exceed four and a half. The top two offenses come from Coors tonight (Rockies 5.68, Nationals 4.82) and we have to question how much we’ll see that reflected in ownership numbers. Only three lineups currently feature multiple top 10 projected bats (PlateIQ). We’re not surprised to see Shohei Ohtani (144 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (225 wRC+, .448 ISO) up there no matter who they’re facing. In this case, both are top three overall projected bats at Fenway against Michael Wacha. His 1.77 ERA through four starts for Boston is purely the product of a .194 BABIP and 92.6 LOB%. While he has just a 10.0 K-BB% due to a double digit walk rate, the real wonder is how he’s been able to keep those runs off the board with a 91.2 mph EV. It’s RHBs that own the edge on him via wOBA (.329 to .306), but Statcast pushes LHBs up to a .341 xwOBA since last year as well. The Angels have a 4.45 team total in a great hitting park.

No surprise either to find four Rockies among the top 10 either. Erick Fedde’s 2.97 K/SwStr is the highest mark on the board, by far, which means his 23.5 K% should not be sustainable with his current 7.9 SwStr%. The latter mark has been below that in each of his last three starts too. In addition to a 9.9 BB%, he does appear to be reversing some gains made last year. You might think an 84.5 mph EV saves him, but even with the contact profile, he has a 5.33 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. PlateIQ projections really like C.J. Cron (122 wRC+, .251 ISO), Charlie Blackmon (98 wRC+, .174 ISO), Connor Joe (114 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Randal Grichuk (84 wRC+, .177 ISO), which should encompass the top half of the Rockie lineup, against Fedde tonight.

The only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected batters is the Minnesota Twins with just a 3.93 implied run line. Byron Buxton has smashed LHP since last year (179 wRC+, .360 ISO), while Carlos Correa has not (138 wRC+, .150 ISO). The .336 wOBA and .373 xwOBA RHBs own against Bruce Zimmermann since last year helps and he still owns a 92.4 mph EV this year, but has also struck out 21 of 80 batters with just six walks and Baltimore has become a much tougher park on right-handed power since moving the fences back this off-season.

Bottom of the Board Pitching in High Upside Matchups

The bottom of the board is fairly well favored in point per dollar projections (PlateIQ), especially on DraftKings. Ryan Yarbrough makes his first start or appearance of the season tonight and currently projects as the top point per dollar value on either site for $6K or less. With a career and 2021 84.8 mph EV, he’s an excellent contact manager with great control (5.2 BB%), but few strikeouts (19.5 K%). He’s in a great spot in Oakland (28.3 K% vs LHP), but his own lack of upside and workload uncertainty may still make him a difficult roster.

The good news is that Michael Pineda has not walked any of the 39 batters he’s faced. The bad news is just about everything else, as he’s only struck out four, while his velocity was down below 90 mph in his last start. In fact, it was coming back at him (95 mph EV) more than five mph harder than he was sending it in. The result was three home runs. And it wasn’t any better in his first start (94.1 mph EV), despite the more positive results (no runs). However, he’s another pitcher projections currently like on a point per dollar basis for just $5.8K in a favorable spot at home against the Pirates (86 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP).

Cristian Javier might be the most interesting of the low priced ($6.8K) top five projected values on DraftKings. He has struck out 16 of 51 batters faced this year. With only 27.6% of his contact on the ground and a 90 mph EV, 10% of batted balls against him have been barreled with just one of three leaving the yard. He has walked only three though. Lack of a third pitch (fastball/slider 90%) may work against him in a starting role, while Seattle has a 116 wRC+ and 12.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Yet, he does have some strikeout upside that is otherwise lacking for less than $7K tonight.

Two more potential DK SP2 arms worth mentioning are Tyler Mahle ($6.9K) and Bruce Zimmermann ($6.1K). Neither project all that strongly, but for different reasons. Mahle has a 6.45 ERA that is purely a function of BABIP (.388) and LOB (54.1%). He’s walking too many (10.8%) with fewer strikeouts (23.5%), but the swings and misses are there (11.6 SwStr% vs 11.4% last year) and he hasn’t allowed a single barrel yet with five popups. His worst estimator is a 4.01 SIERA. The Brewers have been hitting the ball better, but are still a below average offense vs RHIP (89 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP) and Milwaukee can be considered a park upgrade for him. Zimmermann has struck out 21 of 80 batters with just six walks, However, there are still issues in a contact profile that contains a 92.4 mph EV. Allowing just four barrels (7.5%) produces a 3.61 xERA that’s right next to a 3.64 DRA as his worst estimators. Things improve by more than half a run when neutralizing the contact profile. Dimension alterations have made it very difficult for right-handed power in Baltimore this year and while the Twins have a 112 wRC+ vs LHP this season, it comes with a 24.7 K%.

Mid-Range Pitcher Could Greatly Benefit From Weather Boost

The middle of the board may not offer a ton of upside tonight, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting pitchers. One of the more interesting pitchers on the board might be Drew Smyly tonight. Despite all the issues in the White Sox lineup, they have still smashed LHP (139 wRC+) this year. That said, the wind is blowing in from left at Wrigley and Smyly has made some changes. He’s cut down his four seam usage to one-quarter of his offerings, while increasing his cutter to the same frequency. The result has been fewer strikeouts (16.7%), but with a 13.4 SwStr% that strongly suggests that won’t remain the case. More surprisingly, he seems to becoming a ground ball pitcher (54.8%), which he may have to be at Wrigley. It is a bit mind-boggling that he’s induced four infield flies, while six of his remaining 24 non-ground balls have been barrels, yet he has just an 81.5 mph EV. Either way, he’s currently projected as the second best point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on FanDuel tonight.

Aside from Brandon Woodruff, there really are no mid-range pitchers who project that well on DraftKings between $6K and $9K. Something you might have to stare at for a minute or two before it sinks in is that Brad Keller has the best DRA in the majors at 2.80. He costs just $7.5K on DraftKings in a decent home matchup with the Cardinals (89 wRC+, but just a 19 K% vs RHP), at least in terms of run prevention. We could say the same of Dakota Hudson (Royals 79 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP), but who wants to pay more than $8K for his 6.5 K-BB% and 90 mph EV?

German Marquez projects as a top five value on FD ($6.1K), but since opening the season with a gem against the Dodgers, at Coors no less, he has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) over just 14 innings. He struck out just a single Phillie last time out, in his first road start. He’s walked only four (4.2%) with 51.9% of his contact on the ground, but a 91.2 mph EV has still resulted in 9.1% Barrels/BBE with just a 14.7 K% (7.7 SwStr%). Velocity and spin rates are in line with last year, but the Whiff rate on basically every one of his pitches is down for some reason. A 94.5 Z-Contact% is more than an eight point jump from last season. He’s home against the Nats (113 wRC+, 17.2 K% last seven days).

Julio Urias projects fairly well on DraftKings, but his velocity remains down 1.8 mph from last year, according to Statcast. However, the fastball is getting better results (.331 xwOBA last season compared to .267 this year) and since failing to strike out a single batter in his first start, he’s struck out 15 of 57 since. He retains a double digit walk rate and single digit SwStr% though. In addition, while an 87.9 mph EV would be a perfectly respectable mark, it’s nearly a full mile per hour above his career high (87.1 mph in 2020). He’s still managing contact well enough that a 2.59 xERA is very much in line with his 2.50 ERA, but all other estimators are nearly two runs higher (.170 BABIP). The Giants have just an 88 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs LHP though.

Top Projected Pitcher Also A Great Value

Woodruff is currently the top projected pitcher on the board and is tied for the top point per dollar projection on DraftKings. The unfortunate part of that is that it’s very likely going to shoot his ownership up in a cozy little matchup against the ailing Reds (57 wRC+ on the road, 71 wRC+ vs RHP). However, outside his first start against Pittsburgh (his third of the year), Woodruff has scuffled this year. Even including those results, he owns just a 22.9 K% (13.3 K-BB%) with the contact profile doing most of the heavy lifting (5.6% Barrels/BBE, 86.8 mph EV). He’s throwing a ton of first pitch strikes (72.3%) with the same rate of chasing as last year (34.7%), but the Zone rate is down (41.3%). There almost seems enough ammunition to consider a fading (or at least coming in underweight) in this spot, but the juicy matchup makes it so difficult. For more on top of the board arms, including which one might go under-owned tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Best Leverage May Involved High Priced Pitching on One Site

On a 12 game slate with reasonably priced pitching and the Astros (4.7 implied runs) and Yankees (4.4) clearly atop the board tonight, it’s no surprise that both teams project for 20% stacking ownership on DraftKings currently with the latter the only team cracking 15% on FanDuel. Simulations also prefer the Yankees to “smash” the slate most often too, a bit below 20% of the time. Again, the Astros are the only other team coming through in more than 10% of simulations. Cheap Baltimore bats are the overwhelming top value stack on DraftKings with a Value% above 30%. The gaps are a lot smaller on FanDuel with Arizona bats leading the way at 18.2%. Not a batter in their already confirmed lineup exceeds $2.5K, but they have a very tough matchup against Pablo Lopez in Miami. It’s possible that the best leveraging scenario on FanDuel revolves around high priced pitching, while DraftKings players may find an advantage with a young lineup facing a struggling pitcher in one of the more power friendly parks in play tonight. For additional notes on some of the top leverage spots on the board tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

One Team Dominates Top Value Projections For Hitters

Viable pitching is abundant enough at reasonable prices, despite the short slate, that players may not need to roster a lot of cheap bats, but it’s always nice to find value on the board. On DraftKings, PlateIQ projections seem to believe there is a clear answer for value bats tonight and that’s the home team in Baltimore. Chris Paddack has made three solid starts for the Twins, striking out 13 of 60 batters with just a single walk and 51.2% of his contact on the ground in addition to an 87.4 mph EV. He’s is one of those affordable viable arms in a park that may play more pitcher friendly with the walls moved back this year, but four of the top five projected point per dollar value bats on DraftKings are Orioles. This group includes Trey Mancini (79 wRC+, .126 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Ryan Mountcastle (106 wRC+, .202 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (94 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Austin Hays (97 wRC+, .183). All cost less than $3K on DraftKings. In fact, Cedric Mullins (142 wRC+, .249 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup above $3K on DK and it would be pretty ridiculous not to include him in Baltimore stacks. RHBs do own a .368 wOBA against Paddack since last season.

No team dominates top value projections on FanDuel tonight, but the Orioles (Mancini and Ramon Urias) are joined only by the Mariners with multiple batters inside the top 10 projected point per dollar values. Jesse Winker has struggled in his new uniform (87 wRC+ this year), feasted on RHP since last season (162 wRC+, .257 ISO) and may be the top value on FD for just $2.6K against Jake Odorizzi (LHBs .341 wOBA since last season). Luis Torrens (79 wRC+, .128 ISO) joins him as a top value catcher with a minimum price tag ($2K). Jarred Kelenic (86 wRC+, .218 ISO) is just outside the top 10.

Top Offense Has Struggled in Recent Meetings Against Barrel Prone Lefty

With just 12 teams on the board tonight, the Houston Astros (4.74) are the only offense that exceeds even four and a half implied runs. This may not be as troubling as it sounds when you consider that the league average is a mere 4.08 runs per team per game so far, although it does mean Houston bats will likely be very popular tonight. Marco Gonzales was forced to leave his last start after just three batters after taking one off the wrist, but he hasn’t missed any time. The 14.9 K-BB% has been solid, but he’s remained barrel prone (10.4%), an issue that popped up last year. Four of his five barrels and 23.5% of his fly balls have left the yard, numbers that should regress a bit as the season goes on. Ironically, even with that and a 48.8 LOB%, he has just a 3.86 ERA because more than half his runs have been unearned. RHBs own a .354 wOBA and LHBs a .354 xwOBA against him since last season. However, he has one start against Houston this year and one last year…both quality starts. That said, Houston does have three batters pop inside the top 10 projected hitter point totals tonight (PlateIQ). They are the returning Jose Altuve (117 wRC+, .184 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Alex Bregman (127 wRC+, .149 ISO) and Yordan Alvarez (134 wRC+, .227 ISO) in a lefty on lefty matchup.

With the exception of Byron Buxton and Jesse Winker, the rest of the top 10 are filled up with Yankees (4.4 runs – second best on the board) and Blue Jays (4.1 – fourth). As luck would have it, these two teams are facing each other in Toronto, which is somewhat of a neutral run environment, with two quality pitchers on the mound. While Jordan Montgomery has just an 18.3 K% through four starts, his 12.6 SwStr% is well above league average. He’s walked just five with one of his two barrels (3.4%) leaving the yard. With a .224 BABIP and 4.5 HR/FB, estimators are well above a 2.70 ERA, but don’t expect it to fully regress as the strikeout rate should rise above league average. RHBs are about league average against him since last season (.304 wOBA, .319 xwOBA) and he’ll be facing a lot of them tonight. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (148 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP since LY) and George Springer (168 wRC+, .299 ISO) are top 10 projected bats on either site, while Bo Bichette (154 wRC+, .220 ISO) hovers right around the bottom of that list.

Ross Stripling has moved away from his four-seamer, which had resulted in more ground balls (52.2%) and fewer strikeouts until he punched out seven of 20 Bostonians with a 16.7 SwStr% last time out. He’s walked just one since moving into the rotation (three starts) with an 84.4 mph EV. A 3.60 ERA is actually a bit above estimators. The Toronto pen will likely factor in quite a bit here and they’ve been marginal overall with estimators in the mid-threes (the Yankee and Mariner pens has been great by the way). Like Gonzales, Stripling has struggled against RHBs by actual results (.341 wOBA since 2021), but also LHBs by expected results (.345 xwOBA). Aaron Judge (145 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since LY) and his 200 wRC+ in 2022 is the top projected batter on the slate, while Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (117 wRC+, .188 ISO) join him in the top 10. Anthony Rizzo (113 wRC+, .221 ISO) has been on fire as well (205 wRC+ this year).

No Shortage of Mid-Range Values on Small Slate

If you’re not liking the pricing at the top of the board tonight, Zac Gallen owns the fourth highest projected point total on either site (PlateIQ), but costs just $7.6K on DraftKings, where he currently owns a top two point per dollar value projection. Gallen has allowed just a single run over 14 innings, striking out exactly one-quarter of 56 batters faced with just four walks. While the 0.60 ERA is obviously unsustainable, he’s allowed just two barrels (5.4%) with an 86.5 mph EV so far. Gallen seems to be finally healthy and throwing a mile per hour harder than he ever has at the major league level. The Marlins have a 120 wRC+, but 23.5 K% vs RHP. For additional notes on mid-to-low priced pitching options on Monday night, including Drew Rasmussen and Chris Paddack, check out the Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Top Pitcher Who Could Provide Some Leverage Tonight

Both sites are starting about a half hour earlier than usual tonight in order to include six games instead of five on their main slates. We have three clear top of the board pitchers with Pablo Lopez the only pitcher cracking the $10K mark on both sites, Chris Bassitt costing that much only on FanDuel and then Max Fried the only other pitcher on the board above $9K on both sites. Lopez has a 17.6 K-BB% at home that’s two points higher than his road mark and a 9.8 HR/FB that’s 6.3 points lower than his road mark for his career. Overall this year, he allowed a single run in his first start and none since, striking out 23 of 85 batters with just four walks. He has allowed five barrels (8.6%), which have all stayed in the yard, but with just 29.3% of his contact at a 95 mph EV or above. Estimators are well above his 0.39 ERA, but none even come close to three (2.80 DRA). Early this afternoon, he carries the second highest point total projection (PlateIQ), but is expected to be only the third or fourth most popular pitcher. If these numbers hold true, and they are fluid throughout the day, Lopez would be a great GPP play at home against the Diamondbacks (81 wRC+, .26.4 K% vs RHP).

Outside of about a single inning to open his third start, Bassitt, as expected, has been a great addition to the Met staff. His 20.5 K-BB% would be a season high. While he’s allowed five barrels (8.6%), an 84.1 mph EV would be a career best too. Estimators are tightly packed between a 2.91 DRA and 3.26 xFIP, about a run above his ERA (.232 BABIP, 84.9 LOB%). He’s tonight’s top projected pitcher overall and currently expected to be the most popular against an Atlanta offense that has just a 99 wRC+ and 15.6 K-BB% vs RHP this season. He also pitches in a very pitcher friendly park and may get an additional weather boost with cool temperatures and a light wind blowing inward. Umpiring assignments are not yet available.

Max Fried will enjoy the same park conditions as Bassitt on the other side of this matchup. Through four starts, the numbers look about what they usually do. Fried strikes out a few more than average (22.3%) with lots of weak (84.3 mph EV) ground balls (55.1%). Just one of his four barrels (5.7%) has left the yard, but he’s also walked just one and that was in his first start. This has all estimators outside a 3.26 DRA below his 3.00 ERA. The Mets own a 105 wRC+ and 22.8 K% vs LHP early on. Fried is third on the board in terms of total point projection, but is currently projected to be the second most popular pitcher on FD, third on DK. Fried is a fine pitcher, but he along with Bassitt are more of a higher floor type pitcher than high ceiling ones.