DFS Alerts

Stacking Projections Really Like This Offense

On what is now an 11 game slate with two cancellations, the only three teams above 4.5 implied runs (Astros, Red Sox, Diamondbacks) are the only three teams projected for double digit stack ownership on DraftKings, while only the Angels (no current team total) and Red Sox currently get there on FanDuel. In an interesting turn of events, the Royals come through to “Smash” the slate most often in simulations, at barely less than 10% of the time, while they also project as the top value stack on either site with the Diamondbacks the only other stack in double digits. For more on Leverage Ratings and which road offenses could help win a GPP tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Both This Pitcher & Opposing Offense Project to be Worth Their Prices

While top of the board pitchers are dropping by the hour, if players are looking for potential value bats, Baltimore looks like a great place to start. It may sound a bit odd, but due to pricing, it appears Jordan Lyles is a top projected point per dollar pitching value, but so are Kansas City bats against him. Four Royals appear among the top 11 projected values on either site with Edward Olivares (120 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected value on DraftKings and costs $2.5K on either site, as he’s expected to lead off again tonight. Ryan O’Hearn (74 wRC+, .157 ISO) and top prospect M.J. Melendez are top 10 projected value on either site, while Andrew Benintendi (114 wRC+, .163 ISO) reaches that mark on FD ($2.6K) with Michael A. Taylor (70 wRC+, .107 ISO) doing so on DK ($2.3K). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Lyles since last season, but with alterations to Camden Yards to make it more pitcher friendly, the Royals land squarely in the middle of the board with a 3.83 implied run line.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the third highest implied run line tonight (4.59) and are also the only other team to feature multiple top 10 projected values. They accomplish this on FanDuel. Cooper Hummel (151 wRC+, .185 ISO) is the top point per dollar projected value tonight on FD ($2.1K) and also finds himself inside the top 10 on DK ($2.7K). He’s joined as a top 10 FD projected value by David Peralta (95 wRC+, .141 ISO). Chad Kuhl’s worst estimator this year is a 4.02 SIERA, while he owns a 13.5 SwStr%, but LHBs exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.

Couple of Rookie Pitchers Expected to Struggle Against Top Bats

Friday night’s now just 11 game slate includes just a single team (Houston Astros) above five implied runs with just two more above (Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks) exceeding four and a half. Houston (5.07) could have their way with a young Detroit pitcher. Beau Brieske was not a name ever mentioned when talking about the pitching future of the Tigers, but a few injuries and here we are. A 4.3 SwStr% and three home runs on five barrels (16.7%) over two starts won’t do much to make people remember him either. He’s also only thrown 64 innings above A ball, but has just a 40+ Future Value grade via Fangraphs. The Red Sox (4.8) have just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP and Vince Velasquez has looked respectable at points this season, though still has major contact profile issues (92.1 mph EV, 15.1% Barrels/BBE, 6.23 xERA). The Diamondbacks (4.59) are a bit surprising. They have just a 60 wRC+ at home and Chad Kuhl is running estimators between a 2.90 xERA and 4.02 SIERA with a 13+ SwStr%.

While all three teams feature players among the top 10 projected batters (PlateIQ) tonight, the Astros are the only one of the three teams to feature multiple batters and one of just two teams overall to do so, although a couple of Red Sox just miss. Brieske has shown a massive reverse split in his abbreviated major league work. This includes over a 200 point wOBA split and nearly 200 point xwOBA one as well with RHBs above .400 in each case. No Astros actually appear with top five overall projected point totals currently, but Jose Altuve (132 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Yordan Alvarez (149 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Alex Bregman (116 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all top 10.

Rafael Devers (148 wRC+, .318 ISO) currently projects as a top three bat tonight, but is not joined by any other Red Sox inside the top 10, though J.D. Martinez (138 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (142 wRC+, .207 ISO) sit just outside of it. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Velasquez since last season. You can probably guess that Shohei Ohtani (144 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Mike Trout (219 wRC+, .387 ISO) are top three projected batters against Joan Adon. We don’t yet have a team run total for the Angels, as they have yet to name a pitcher, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if they end up as a fourth team above four and a half. Adon has some interesting movement on his pitches, but struggles to throw them in the strike zone. Often falling behind, batters are chasing just a quarter of his pitches out of the zone, leading to a 6.9 SwStr% and 7.2 K-BB%. When batters do swing, they’re hitting it really hard too (91 mph EV, 17.6% Barrels/BBE). He has a 7.33 ERA and we can still say he’s fortunate that just four of 13 barrels have left the yard. His xERA is a half run higher. LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs own a .351 xwOBA.

Rookie Pitcher Projects as a Potential Top Value

Among pitchers below $7K tonight, the biggest standout is rookie Josh Winder. He is an older prospect (25), who will be making his second major league start for the Twins. He struck out seven of 20 Rays in his first after striking out five of 41 in relief, but he does have a 12.2 SwStr%. Winder is an intriguing prospect (#4 in org, 50 FV grade via Fangraphs), who only reached AA last year for the first time due to the pandemic and then was shut down at AAA with a shoulder injury. He’s generated a K-BB above 17% at every level of minor league play. Winder’s thrown four pitches more than 30 times at the major league level with only his four-seam fastball lacking a 30+ Whiff% and sub-.200 xwOBA. He gets a great matchup with the Twins hosting the A’s (76 wRC+, 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP). When you add it all up, Winder is currently a top three projected point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on either site tonight.

As far as other sub-$7K pitchers that players may want to consider in their secondary slot on DraftKings, Vince Velasquez threw 5.2 shutout innings at the Angels last time out and even though the Twins previously touched him up for five runs over 3.1 innings, he’s struck out 12 of his last 39 batters with just a single walk. Once again though, the issue is an awful contact profile that includes a 92.1 mph EV and 15.1% Barrels/BBE with just three of eight barrels leaving the yard. A 6.23 xERA is more than a run and a half above all other estimators that go as low as a 3.83 SIERA. We’ve reached the point where we have to believe in the contact profile for this pitcher though. With Velasquez, you play with fire, but the upside is not lacking against a Boston offense with just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP.

Lastly, we have to mention Jordan Lyles, but only because he is so cheap ($5.1K). Considering the alterations to Camden Yards and the team that will be visiting it tonight (Royals 79 wRC+, but just a 19.9 K% vs RHP), Lyles projects as tonight’s top DraftKings value. He is producing the expected numbers through five starts. That includes a 9.2 K-BB%, 10.6% Barrels/BBE with an ERA and estimators all between a 4.26 SIERA and 5.26 xERA. This is purely a matchup and price play for those who are okay with punting this spot in their lineup for offense.

Mid-Range Pitching Options Anchored by Workhorse

If you don’t like the abundance of top of the board arms or at least their weather forecasts, the middle of the board does offer some solutions tonight. Alex Cobb lasted just 10 batters in his return from the IL, not due to re-injury, but because the Nationals spanked him. While four of the five runs were unearned, he walked three without a strikeout, but has still struck out 14 of 50 batters faced this year with just two additional walks, a 73.3 GB% and 85.3 mph EV. Just as importantly, he’s continued to hold his spring training velocity spike. Expect him to be better going forward. He may not last much more than five innings, but costs less than $8.5K at home against the Cardinals (90 wRC+, 18.4 K% vs RHP). At his lower price point ($8.2K on FD), Cobb projects as a top five point per dollar value (PlateIQ), but may not last long enough for the Quality Start.

Luis Garcia surpassed 80 pitches for the first time this year in his last start, but he’s been efficient enough to have recorded at least two sixth inning outs three starts in a row now. The strikeouts are down a bit (22.4%), but he’s walked just five batters. With just a 30 GB%, five of eight barrels (13.3%) have left the yard. Estimators range widely from a 3.44 xERA to a 5.17 FIP with his ERA (4.15) sitting somewhere in between. At $7.4K, he projects as the second best value on DraftKings at home against the Tigers (83 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP).

Sandy Alcantara has not exceeded six strikeouts (21%) in any of his five starts and the velocity is down a bit, but the 12.2 SwStr% is still slightly above his career rate. With nearly half his contact (48.8%) on the ground and an 85.7 mph EV, Alcantara continues the excellent contact management portion of his game, allowing just three barrels (3.7%), all of which have left the yard. The biggest flaw has been an 11.3 BB%. While a 3.16 xERA is in line with a 2.90 ERA, other estimators exceed four, but should improve as the gap between his walks and strikeouts widen. The Padres have a 102 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs RHP, but $7.7K on DraftKings for the high workload floor you’re almost certain to get from Alcantara is too low. He’s the sixth best projected value on that site.

Weather Causing Chaos with Friday Night's Top Arms

Friday night features one of the largest (but getting smaller by the hour) and most chaotic slates we’ve seen so far this season. Already one game down (TEX/NYY) with several more in the northeast in danger, we can add openers, bullpen games, rookies and still unconfirmed starting pitchers to the list of things that make this slate quite volatile. We started the day with, perhaps, the best pitching board of the season. No fewer than five starting pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site. Four now, when we cross off Gerrit Cole. Three, as we’ve just lost Max Scherzer in Philly as well. Kevin Gausman & Shane Bieber also carry some risk, though the latter is just under $10K on FanDuel. That still leaves Eric Lauer and Yu Darvish. Scherzer was the top overall projected pitcher and one of the top values. Ownership projections will certainly have to be reconfigured in his absence.

Lauer is outside the top seven projected point totals on either site, but projection systems are often extremely slow to pick up on actual talent changes. Regression is simply always built in. However, Lauer is now a flame throwing, power pitcher because the Brewers needed more of those. He’s struck out 24 of his last 50 batters with a 17.5 SwStr% and owns a 31.2 K-BB% through four starts. Three of five barrels (9.4%) have left the yard and while all estimators are above his 1.93 ERA, a 3.08 DRA is the only one that even reaches three. Problematically, he’s in a difficult park, facing a difficult offense (Braves 110 wRC+, but 25.5 K% vs LHP this year) with winds blowing fairly strongly out to left. Perhaps, most importantly, He carries little weather related risk. For more on the other top pitchers tonight, including the top two projected arms overall, see Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mets-Phillies postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Mets-Phillies postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Rangers-Yankees postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Rangers-Yankees postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Dodgers-Cubs postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Dodgers-Cubs postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Tom Murphy (undisclosed) scratched Thursday

Tom Murphy (undisclosed) scratched Thursday.

Mauricio Llovera will start for the Giants on Thursday

Mauricio Llovera will start for the Giants on Thursday. Llovera is expected to serve as the starter (though will likely only throw an inning or so) in a bullpen game for the Giants, though this has not been confirmed as of yet.

One Team Rules Tonight's Stacking Projections

With only three teams above a 4.5 or even 4.0 implied run line and no team reaching a five run total on Thursday night’s six game slate, some of tonight’s early stacking projections (fluid and subject to change) are fairly straight forward. All three teams reach a double digit ownership projection on both sites, with the addition of Baltimore on FanDuel, but only the Twins exceed 15% on either site with a solid combination of top projected hitters overall (Buxton, Correa) and values on both DK & FD. Simulations also find the Twins the only lineup “smashing” the slate more than 15% of the time. Can you guess which team projects as the top value stack on either site? Yup, Twins again. While you might think this makes the Twins a poor leveraging choice, that’s actually not true according to current projections. They certainly don’t have the highest Leverage Rating, but they do have a positive one on either site. For more on the teams with top Leverage Ratings tonight, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Projected Bats, Top Projected Values...This Lineup Has it All

No single team reaches a five run team total on Thursday night’s six game slate, though three offenses clearly separate from the rest of the board, all within a 4.5 to 4.75 implied run range currently. We’re looking at the Phillies (4.75), hosting Taijuan Walker and the Mets, followed by the Twins (4.71), in Baltmore vs Spenser Watkins, and Astros (4.66) at home against Tarik Skubal. It’s difficult to say any of those spots are completely ideal to attack, only because Baltimore’s recent park alterations seem to have made a massive difference to the scoring environment.

Concerning some early afternoon batter projections (PlateIQ), which are fluid and always subject to change, you’ll find that eight of the top 10 overall projected hitter point totals come from those three lineups with only Manny Machado (vs Jesus Luzardo) and Cedric Mullins (vs Chris Archer) standing out. Byron Buxton (175 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Carlos Correa (127 wRC+, .213 ISO) are the top projected batters on the board. Spenser Watkins has estimators more than double his 2.55 ERA, as he’s walked as many as he’s struck out (eight) with a 90.3 mph EV. He’s kept more than half his contact on the ground (52.5%), but has just a .211 BABIP. Just two of his five barrels (8.5%) have left the yard. A 3.79 DRA is his only estimator below four and a half, so he’s certainly pitching above his head, whether it’s the park or not. RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him since last year with 11 home runs 179 PAs. Jorge Polanco (125 wRC+, .232 ISO) joins them inside the top 10. There’s also the matter that Twins’ bats come in as four of the top five projected point per dollar values on FanDuel with a list that includes Correa, Jose Miranda ($2K), Luis Arraez (117 wRC+) and Gary Sanchez (.191 ISO). Nick Gordon (87 wRC+) and Trevor Larnach (107 wRC+) join Miranda ($2K) as top five projected values on DraftKings. Pricing makes Minnesota a very easy stack tonight on either site.

Jose Altuve (115 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP since LY) and Alex Bregman (126 wRC+, .150 ISO) are the top Houston projected bats, but Altuve is questionable tonight and while RHBs own a .338 wOBA (.366 xwOBA) against Skubal since last season, he’s changed his pitch mix this year to generate more grounders and fewer barrels, walks and strikeouts. Taijuan Walker makes his third start of the year, all against the Phillies, with an IL stint mixed in. While he had a near 40 point reverse split by actual results, Statcast has batters from either side within five points of a .325 xwOBA against him since last year. Bryce Harper (183 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since last season), who has been hurting himself, Kyle Schwarber (156 wRC+, .362 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (138 wRC+, .249 ISO) all project as top of the board bats against him.

Has This Pitcher Improved By Dropping His K Rate?

The most interesting mid-range pitching option on the board is actually just below the top arms in terms of both cost and projections. The Marlins have to be thrilled with what they’ve gotten out of Jesus Luzardo so far. The walk rate is still a bit high (11%), but with a 34.1 K% (14.0 SwStr%). It’s been a bit inconsistent with single game swinging strike rates ranging from 5.5% to 21.8%, but hopefully he can round it all out eventually. The important part is that the upside is still there and is further enforced by a nearly mile and half per hour velocity spike, though that’s been inconsistent too. A 3.57 DRA is the only estimator above his 3.10 ERA. He’s in a pitcher’s park in San Diego, but the Padres have a 119 wRC+ vs LHP and the entire top half of the projected lineup is below a 20 K% vs LHP since last season.

Projections also favor Jose Urquidy in a home matchup against the Tigers (82 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). Six strikeouts last time out were one less than his total over his first three starts. That pushed his strikeout rate up to merely 15.1% and with just 29.6% of his contact on the ground and a 92.6 mph EV, Statcast spits out an ugly 7.13 xERA. The good news is that it’s his only estimator above a 5.95 ERA, though none dip below four and a half. He’s at least helped himself out slightly with a 3.5 BB%. This is purely a matchup and price play. Urquidy is less than $8K on either site.

On the other side of the field will be Tarik Skubal, perhaps the most interesting low priced pitcher on the board, though that only applies to DraftKings, where’s nearly $3K less than on FanDuel. A S22.7 K% is a three point drop from last season, but a four point drop in his walk rate has resulted in an increase to his K-BB (19.3%). The biggest problem last year was the 58 barrels (13.9%). To combat that, he’s nearly doubled his sinker percentage to almost a quarter of his pitches this year with a big jump in his ground ball rate (50.8%) through four starts. He’s allowed just four barrels (6.2%), all of which have stayed in the yard. However, he still has just one estimator (3.40 DRA) above his 3.05 ERA. Trading off a few strikeouts to avoid barrels may not be the sexiest fantasy move a pitcher can make, but it’s had a positive overall result for Skubal so far. Of course, the problem here is that the Astros don’t strike out a lot. Six of nine in the projected lineup are well below a 20 K% vs LHP since last season. However, Skubal won’t need that many to pay off $6.5K. Current projections see Skubal as the fifth best point per dollar value on DK and second best (behind Chris Archer) for less than $8K.

No Shortage of Top Arms on a Short Slate

Despite a mere six game slate starting at 6:45 ET tonight, there is no shortage of top tier pitching on Thursday night. Both Logan Webb and Shane McClanahan breach the $10K mark on FanDuel ($9K on DK), while Aaron Nola misses by just $100 on FD (just $8K on DK). And we didn’t even mention the reigning AL Cy Young winner, who’s available for less than $9K on either site. These are the top four projected pitchers according to PlateIQ projections, but just not in that order. In fact, Ray is the top projected pitcher in LineupHQ, followed by Nola, Webb and McClanahan. This also makes Ray the potential top value on FanDuel and both Ray and Nola top DraftKings values. For more on tonight’s top arms, including which one of the above pitchers has a good chance of beating his current projections, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog