DFS Alerts

The start of Padres-Pirates will be delayed Sunday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Padres-Pirates will be delayed Sunday due to inclement weather

Matt Duffy (undisclosed) scratched Sunday

Matt Duffy (undisclosed) scratched Sunday

Bobby Witt Jr. scratched Sunday

Bobby Witt Jr. scratched Sunday

Wander Franco scratched Sunday

Wander Franco scratched Sunday

Jonathan India scratched Saturday

Jonathan India scratched Saturday

J.D. Martinez scratched Saturday

J.D. Martinez scratched Saturday

Byron Buxton (hand) scratched Saturday

Byron Buxton (hand) scratched Saturday

Michael Brantley (protocols) scratched Friday

Michael Brantley (protocols) scratched Friday

Noah Syndergaard (illness) scratched Friday; Jimmy Herget will open for the Angels in his place

Noah Syndergaard (illness) scratched Friday; Jimmy Herget will open for the Angels in his place

Leverage Against a Pitcher with a .342 wOBA vs RHBs?

Early stacking projections don’t suggest any team will see overwhelming ownership on a 13 game Friday night slate, though the Red Sox and Reds both currently (barely) reach double digits on DraftKings. It may be surprising to see the Reds so moderately projected in terms of ownership at Coors, especially when they’re so cheap, but this offense has been absolutely awful. Remember also, that these projections are fluid and change throughout the day. When early simulations were run, neither the Rockies, nor Reds (the only teams above five implied runs) projected to “smash” the slate much more than five percent of the time. Again, we find the Red Sox, but now with the Dodgers, atop the board, but neither with a Smash% reaching double digits. In terms of projected value, Cincinnati stacks overwhelm on DraftKings with a 28.6 Value% that’s nearly three times the next highest team. Milwaukee is just ahead of Detroit, both in double digits on FanDuel. The Tigers are in L.A. and facing a remodeled Tyler Anderson, who’s throwing more cutters. The early result has been an 18 K-BB% with a 54.5 GB% and 81.7 mph EV.

The meat of these stacking projections for GPP players are the Leverage ratios. They’re not going to come through every night or even most of the time, but when they do a large GPP win is on the table. There are currently two teams above a 5.0 Leverage ratio on either site and one of them is very interesting. Up top we have the Angels at 9.6. This has been a very successful offense early on (130 wRC+ vs RHP), but they’ll be facing Lucas Giolito with potential weather issues. It’s the rare night where we don’t find Shohei Ohtani (145 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (242 wRC+, .442 ISO) as top of the board projected bats. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .270 and .290 wOBA and xwOBA against Giolito since last season.

Yankee stacks (6.6 on DK, 5.5 on FD) are a surprise find here (and that could change later in the day). They currently own the top implied run line outside Coors (5.0), but expensive bats in Kansas City (a park downgrade in terms of power output, but not overall run environment) aren’t expected to be highly owned and only smashed the slate in 6.5% of simulations upon early runs. The best of Kris Bubic’s three starts was a 4.1 inning effort in which he held the Tigers to one run despite walking six with just four strikeouts. Overall, he’s walked nine of 40 batters with just five strikeouts. Never mind anything else, including that he’s allowed just two barrels (7.7%). His best estimator is a 6.52 DRA. RHBs own a .342 wOBA against him since last year, yet Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP since last season) is the only Yankee bat currently projected for a top 10 overall point total.

Top Offense Also Projects for Great Value on DraftKings

Maybe that’s because the Reds own a 50 wRC+ on the road and 69 wRC+ vs RHP, but again, this is Coors and Antonio Senzatela has been awful. He was signed to a not insignificant contract extension because he supposed to generate tons of ground balls in a park where fly balls are a big problem. To this point, he has struck out just five of 61 batters with a 37.7 GB% and 91 mph EV. This is probably not what the Rockies had in mind. He’s very lucky to have allowed just four barrels (7.3%) and even luckier that only one has left the yard. On a positive note, he’s only walked one and had a FIP and xFIP below four, but an xERA above seven. Batters from either side of the plate range between a .320 to .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. It’s no surprise then, that the top three projected point per dollar values (PlateIQ) on DraftKings are all Reds tonight in Mike Moustakas (76 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Tommy Pham (101 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Joey Votto (150 wRC+, .320 ISO). Tyler Naquin (118 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Nick Senzel (78 wRC+, .095 ISO) also find themselves projected as top 10 values tonight. Atlanta (at Texas – Spencer Howard) is the only other offense with multiple top 10 projected values on DraftKings (Travis Demeritte, Adam Duvall). Check the roof status in Texas as run scoring increases by an average of eight percent with the roof open.

On FanDuel though, Votto is the only Cincinnati top 10 projected value and just barely. It’s Milwaukee bats that project for the most value however, with three bats among the top five against Kyle Hendricks, who hasn’t been bad this season (21.6 K% with estimators around four). Yet, Rowdy Tellez (88 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Kolten Wong (105 wRC+, .174 ISO) cost just $2.3K and LHBs have a .367 wOBA (.368 xwOBA) against Hendricks since last year. Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .125 ISO) costs $2.7K. None are above a 98 wRC+ overall this year though.

Top Projected Bats Not Necessarily Coming from Teams with Largest Run Lines

On a nearly full slate just two games shy of 15 on Friday night, only the two teams at Coors (Reds & Rockies) are currently above five implied runs tonight in a suppressed 2022 run environment (8.04 runs per game MLB average). The Yankees and Dodgers sit right around the five run mark, while the Braves and Giants the only other two teams firmly above four and a half runs. Interestingly, among those six teams, only the Dodgers have multiple batters among the top 10 projected overall bats tonight (PlateIQ). That would be Mookie Betts (122 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Trea Turner (194 wRC+, .298 ISO), who are both top three overall projected bats against Tyler Alexander, who has completed just 10 innings over three starts with as many runs crossing the plate. He’s struck out just eight of 47 with a 7.2 SwStr%, but an 86 mph EV has prevented even more damage (5.6% Barrels/BBE). RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within a point of .333 on either site.

Two AL East teams also list multiple batters among the top 10 projected hitter point totals tonight. The Yankees are not one of them though with only Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP) among the top three against Kris Bubic (RHBs .342 wOBA since LY). The Red Sox are expected to be facing well regarded Kyle Bradish, making his major league debut. He’s certainly talented enough to be worth an SP2 flyer on DraftKings at the minimum priced (in fact, he’s currently the top projected point per dollar value), but both Xander Bogaerts (143 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Trevor Story (83 wRC+, .168 ISO) project as top 10 batters overall bats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (170 wRC+, .298 ISO) and George Springer (133 wRC+, .272 ISO) have become daily staples of the top 10 and face Jose Urquidy, who has struck out just seven of 62 batters (7.0 SwStr%) with merely a 25 GB% and 91.9 mph EV, resulting in three home runs on six barrels (11.3%). This, despite his velocity being up a full mile per hour (93.5). A 4.92 xFIP is his lone estimator below five at this point. In Toronto’s predominantly right-handed lineup’s favor though, is an 80 point reverse wOBA split (RHBs .326) since last season that’s pretty much confirmed by Statcast (RHBs .341 xwOBA). Toronto does sit inside the top third of the board at 4.37 implied runs tonight.

Two Talents Young Pitching Prospects at the Bottom of the Board

Kyle Bradish is the number seven prospect in the Baltimore system with a 45+ Future Value grade, according to Fangraphs. A February scouting report included a velocity uptick (94-96 mph) in addition to a pair of good breaking balls. Fifteen innings of a 24.6 K-BB% this year follows 86.2 with a 17.5% mark last year. Considering the alterations made to the park in Baltimore and the struggling Boston offense (76 wRC+), which may be without J.D. Martinez tonight, Bradish currently projects as the top DraftKings value at the minimum price tag of $4K (not available on FD).

On the other side of this game, It’s not that Rich Hill and his 12.1 K% (4.7 SwStr%, 94.6 Z-Contact%) or 1.8 K-BB% is all that imposing, but he’ll be piggybacked by Tanner Houck, who does have some talent (20.5 K-BB% over 101.2 major league innings and will probably have nearly no ownership at around $8K on either site. The workload will probably be in the neighborhood of four to five innings, but the Orioles have an 88 wRC+ and 25.4 K% vs RHP this year.

There are a few additional bottom of the board arms who may be worth considering in your DraftKings SP2 spot. With a marginal 11.3 K-BB%, Aaron Civale needs to manage contact better than the average pitcher to succeed, but he’s not been doing that so far. With just a 25.7 GB% and 91 mph EV, he’s allowed five barrels (15.9%) and been fortunate that just two have left the yard. Estimators may be half his 9.58 ERA (41.7 LOB%, .382 BABIP), but none drop below a 4.45 SIERA. This is all about the matchup in Oakland though (89 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP), for less than $7K. Hunter Greene’s 100 mph fastball (avg 98.8) has impressed everyone, along with the 39.1 Whiff% on his slider. It’s added up to a good, not great 26.2 K% and 16.4 K-BB%. It is a bit problematic, at least in Cincinnati and maybe here, tonight, in Colorado, that he’s generated just 28.9% of his contact on the ground with an 89.9 mph EV. This has led to four barrels (10.5%) and three home runs. That said, his 5.27 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.66 SIERA to a 5.13 FIP. He’s at Coors tonight, but the wind is blasting inward and he costs just $6.5K.

Friday night’s large slate may include a number of mid-to-high range pitchers who are overvalued. A key stat in determining some of this is SwStr% in relation to K%. If the latter is in the neighborhood of around three times the former or more, its generally considered unsustainable. Nestor Cortes (4.13 K/SwStr) is one offender, but is not even the chief offender tonight. That would be Adam Wainright (4.25). While Waino is near the top of the league with a 22.4 CStr% again, he’s still going to be unable to maintain a 24.2 K% with just a 5.7 SwStr%. That’s a problem. Everything else in the profile is fine (7.0 BB%, 87 mph EV), although he has allowed six barrels (9.7%) with just two leaving the yard. St Louis will suppress a lot of those in the cold weather, especially this year, now that every park has a humidor and the balls are specifically made to travel less. He’s in a great spot (D’Backs 81 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs RHP) and projects as a top five arm on either site tonight, but buyer beware. This is more a high floor than high ceiling spot with an unsustainable K-rate. Weather Edge also currently implies more hitter friendly conditions in St Louis than usual tonight.

Alex Wood costs $9.5K on FD, but $800 less on DK and projects just outside the top five in a great spot. He isn’t generating as many ground balls (42.1%) and the contact has been a bit harder than you’d like (90.8 mph), but a 20 K-BB% could help rectify some of that. He has allowed six barrels (15.4%), though just two of them have left the yard. This explains why his xERA (4.74) is so much higher than his other estimators (3.04 SIERA). The Nats do own a board low 16.4 K% vs LHP, but with a 72 wRC+ and 1.9 HR/FB.

An interesting pitcher who is projected a bit better than you might expect is Tyler Anderson. The Dodgers have him throwing more cutters. The early result has been an 18 K-BB% with a 54.5 GB% and 81.7 mph EV. He’s pitched around four innings in each of his three outings, but with 80 pitches last time out, should be stretched to five or six innings should the Dodgers want to push him more than twice through the order. The Tigers have a 117 wRC+, but 25.1 K% and 2.5 HR/FB vs LHP. They’ve walked 11.5% of the time though. Anderson costs slightly less than $8K on either site.

Two more mid-range pitchers who might be worth talking about are Kyle Hendricks and Noah Syndergaard. The 10.2 BB% is uncharacteristic and problematic, but otherwise, Hendricks has been fine. His 21.6 K% would be his highest mark since 2017 and a 12.2 SwStr% the best of his career, though that’s really skewed by a 20.5% mark on Opening Day. He’s not generating a lot of ground balls (40.7%), but has still allowed just two barrels (3.4%). Most estimators are in more or less in line with an ERA around four. That might be good enough in Milwaukee (83 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). Syndergaard has failed to average more than 95 mph on his fastball in any of his three starts. The most obvious consequence has been in a 16.4 K%. However, his changeup and slider (thrown a combined 41.9% of the time) both still have whiff rates above 30% and Thor owns a 13 SwStr% overall. Pair this with just four walks and a nearly immaculate contact profile (58 GB%, 85.6 mph EV, 0 barrels) and it’s hard to see he’s suffered for any of the velocity loss. The White Sox have just a 21.3 K%, but 70 wRC+ vs RHP. There are some weather concerns in Chicago, but Syndergaard costs less than $8K on either site.

Projections Down on One Top Arm, May Be Undervaluing Another

Frankie Montas is the only pitcher costing more than $10K on either site ($10.2K on FanDuel) on a 13 game Friday night slate, though Nestor Cortes costs exactly that much on both. Lucas Giolito and Tylor Megill are the only other pitchers on the board to reach the $9K price point on both sites. Aaron Nola is $9.9K on FanDuel, but less than $9K on DraftKings. Starting at the top, early projections (PlateIQ) rank Montas, Nola and then Giolito in that order on either site and they are not separated by much in terms of point total or ownership currently, as the three are also expected to be the most popular pitchers right now (though remember, these numbers are fluid and change throughout the day). All Montas has done is rack up a 22.3 K-BB% with a 50 GB% and 20 IFFB%. This has led to just three barrels (4.7%) and estimators all more than a quarter of a run below his 3.28 ERA (.226 BABIP, 60.4 LOB%). Pitching at home in a great park, the matchup is not ideal (Guardians 126 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP), but they have been regressing heavily with just a team 61 wRC+ over the last seven days. Montas is currently the top projected value on DraftKings among confirmed pitchers tonight as well.

After punching out nine Brewers over seven one-hit shutout innings in his last start, Nola has the strikeout rate up to 29.8% with just a 6.0 BB%. The problem has been when contact is made, despite a 58 GB%. Six of his 22 non-grounders have been barrels with four of them leaving the yard. However, his FIP (4.28) is the only estimator above three. He gets a park upgrade and the Mets have just an 18.4 K% (132 wRC+) vs RHP. If ownership projections remain high, he could be a pitcher to fade. Giolito struck out six of 15 Tigers then missed a start with a short IL stint. He returned to strike out nine of 19 Twins and has a 21.2 SwStr% through 137 pitches. There is the 93.4 mph EV, but it’s only 14 batted balls. The Angels have a 130 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP, though this particular projected lineup includes four batters that have struck out in at least one-quarter of PAs vs RHP this year. Additional issues with Giolito include workload, due both to the fact that he only threw 76 pitches last time out and this being the one game on the board with significant weather concern. In addition to projection updates in LineupHQ, Giolito backers will need to keep on top of Kevin’s forecast today.

Down to the two New York pitchers, Cortes finds himself among the top 10 projected pitchers, while Megill is seventh on either site. Cortes has struck out an astounding 25 of 56 batters…with a 10.8 SwStr%. And a 19.5 CStr% that’s not even that high. Sure, the 64.3 F-Strike% is great, but this is a complete fluke. More sustainably, he’s walked just three. He’s also allowed just a single barrel (3.6%) with an 86.5 mph EV. Estimators, which entirely buy into the strikeout rate are mostly below one and a half. The Royals have just a 66 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but that’s in a small sample and mostly due to a 4.0 HR/FB. They’ve struck out in just 18.6% of PAs against southpaws. The projections are probably correct that Cortes may be a bit over-valued by his price tag.

Megill is a different story. He may still be under-valued by projections. He has worked through the order three times in each of his last two starts and while the velocity dipped two starts back, it was still above last year’s and jumped right back up last time out in Arizona. The profile includes a 21.3 K-BB% with a 24.7 K% that could move even higher with a 13.3 SwStr%. He’s allowed just four barrels (6.3%) and two home runs. A 3.47 DRA is his only estimator that reaches three. The Phillies own a 109 wRC+ and 21 K% vs RHP this season, but that includes a couple of series against Rockies pitching. If Megill remains around 10% ownership, as is currently projected, he’s your GPP arm tonight.