DFS Alerts

The start of Nationals-Rockies will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Game update: The start of Nationals-Rockies will be delayed Wednesday due to rain

Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel scratched Wednesday, placed on COVID IL

Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel scratched Wednesday, placed on COVID IL

The Stack That Projects For Far More Value Than Any Other

This afternoon’s stacking projections for a seven game slate are going to tell us some obvious things. The four teams that reach four and a half implied runs or higher are expected to be the most highly owned stacks on DraftKings and FanDuel for the most part. Simulations see only Colorado smashing the slate more than 10% of the time, which might be a bit of a surprise on a smaller slate, but then not so much of one when you consider how far above everyone else their team run total is. The only major outlier in terms of Value% is the Orioles above 30% on FanDuel, where nobody in the lineup costs more than $3.2K against Dylan Bundy (RHBs .349 wOBA since LY). For more, including the team with a surprisingly high Leverage Rating tonight, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Low Cost Offense That Could Light Things Up Tonight

There’s some separation at the top of the board between the only three teams above 4.5 implied runs on a seven game Wednesday night slate. At the top, the Rockies (5.72) sit alone, as they’ll host Patrick Corbin (RHBs .386 wOBA since 2021), more than half a run above the Brewers (5.12), who have picked it up with a team 126 wRC+ over the last week and will be facing Vladimir Gutierrez (-4.8 K-BB%). Nearly half a run below them sits the other Coors offense tonight, the Nationals (4.78). Austin Gomber has been perfectly fine with a 15.0 K-BB% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE, which does make him fairly vulnerable at Coors.

Perusing the PlateIQ hitter projections, the top four batters come from these teams: Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP since 2021), C.J. Cron (158 wRC+, .309 ISO vs LHP since LY), Juan Soto (124 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Randal Grichuk (117 wRC+, .197 ISO). Colorado pushes a third batter, Connor Joe (148 wRC+, .208 ISO) inside the top 10, while Kolten Wong (106 wRC+, .175 ISO) joins Yelich. The Boston Red Sox, at exactly 4.5 implied runs, are the only other team with multiple top 10 projected hitters in their lineup tonight. In this case, it’ll be Trevor Story (137 wRC+, .306 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (119 wRC+, .144 ISO) and Rafael Devers (106 wRC+, .123 ISO) against rookie Reid Detmers (RHBs .374 wOBA).

Considering that Vladimir Gutierrez’s contact profile is fairly average behind the -4.8 K-BB% and that the Milwaukee lineup doesn’t really have a ton of power, this is certainly a spot where you don’t want to pick and choose batters, rather than a full stack to get exposure to all the base-runners who may cross the plate. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA against Gutierrez since last season and the great news is that Milwaukee bats are fairly cheap, especially on FanDuel, where only Willy Adames costs more than $3.3K.

Mid-Range Pitcher with a 19.0 K-BB% Despite Velocity Drop

We can pretty easily cover your sub-$9K pitching options (excluding Freddy Peralta) fairy quickly by immediately omitting Austin Gomber & Patrick Corbin at Coors, the still barrel-prone Yusei Kikuchi against the flaming hot and predominantly right-handed Yankees and Vladimir Gutierrez’s -4.8 K-BB%. Everyone else might have some sort of argument. We can start with Dylan Bundy, who current projections (PlateIQ) see as potentially the third best pitcher on the board tonight. Despite sitting below 90 mph on average, Bundy has produced a 19.0 K-BB% with only 32.3% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. However, he has allowed six barrels (9.7%) with just two of them leaving the yard. He’ll return to a more pitcher friendly Baltimore park with his worst estimator being a 3.11 SIERA. Baltimore bats with an 85 wRC+ and 24.4 K% vs RHP are pretty pitcher friendly too.

Garrett Whitlock hasn’t seen much dropoff in transitioning from the pen to a starting role, but he also hasn’t been fully stretched out yet (61 pitch high). The Angels have a 114 wRC+, but 24.3 K% vs RHP. Kyle Bradish had a respectable major league debut. While he only struck out two of the 23 Red Sox he faced, he did so with a 9.9 SwStr% and induced swings on one-third of his pitches outside the strike zone. If there is a concern, it’s that he allowed three barrels (15%) on a 92.8 mph EV. Bradish produced a 17.5 K-BB% over 86.2 AAA innings last year and has a 45+ Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. He costs just $5.5K on DK at home against the Twins (106 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs RHP). Kyle Hendricks is less than $7.5K and may have the Wrigley winds at his back against the White Sox (71 wRC+, but 19.4 K% vs RHP). A 9.1 K-BB% with a career low 35.5 GB% and career high 9.2% Barrels/BBE generates estimators no lower than a 4.43 SIERA and as high as a 5.67 xERA for Hendricks. A 57.6 F-Strike%, 24.6 O-Swing% and 39.8 Zone% are all career lows.

Reid Detmers is running a perfectly fine 15.5 K-BB% through four starts with a somewhat average ground ball rate and contact profile, though the 90.6 mph EV is a bit high. Estimators run between a 3.61 SIERA and 4.52 FIP, all more than half a run below his ERA. He has an odd combination of a .239 BABIP, but 63.3 LOB%. He costs $8K on the road in Boston (Red Sox 74 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs LHP) on DK, but much lower on FD. A single walk in Tony Gonsolin’s last start still has his walk rate sitting at 11.3%. The good news is that a 13.3 SwStr% projects something much higher than his current 18.3 K%. He’s also generated a 53.1 GB% with just a single barrel (2.0%). Really, it’s just an issue of getting his walk rate back under control so great things can happen. The Giants have a 112 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP, but depending on ownership projections (currently very low), Gonsolin makes for an interesting GPP upside play on this slate.

Wednesday's Top Pitchers May Also Be the Best Values

A seven game Wednesday night slate offers one clear top arm among many other flawed ones. Despite a short IL stint after his first start, Lucas Giolito is off to a great start with a 37.9 K% (18.6 SwStr%) through three starts, though he has walked six of 58 batters and allowed four barrels (13.3%). Early returns on the changeup are a 51.9 Whiff%. All estimators are below three and a half. The Cubs have a team 62 wRC+ and 31.5 K% over the last seven days, while the wind is once again blowing in from left at Wrigley (though not as hard as yesterday). Giolito threw 99 pitches in his last start, so you can’t even nitpick the workload. He’s the top projected pitcher on the board tonight (PlateIQ) and one of just two to reach the $10K price point (both on FanDuel). For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the one who may be a better value than Giolito, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog

Travis Demeritte scratched Wednesday

Travis Demeritte scratched Wednesday

Padres-Guardians postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Padres-Guardians postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Pirates-Tigers postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: Pirates-Tigers postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Stack That Tops Today's Simulations Does Not Come From Coors

If you were expecting a Colorado runaway train tonight in terms of stacking projections, that’s not really the case, though they are the only team expected to be stacked in more than 10% of lineups on DraftKings tonight, though these numbers are subject to change as information roles in. Due to pricing, Detroit currently projects to be more popular on FanDuel, though no team reaches 9%. Perhaps a bit surprisingly, simulations don’t see either of the teams with the top two run lines at Coors smashing the slate all that often. Again, no team reaches a 9 Smash%, but the Angels (at Boston vs Michael Wacha) come closest. Detroit shows up with around a 15 Value% on either site right now, which is good enough for the top value stack on FanDuel, but a bit behind the Orioles (against Joe Ryan) on DraftKIngs, though it’s highly unlikely a lot of players will be pulling that latter trigger. For more on which stacks have the best Leverage Ratings, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Entire Lineup is too Cheap on FanDuel

So you’re paying up for pitching and need some value bats. The answer to that might be pretty straight forward on FanDuel, according to current projections (PlateIQ), and that’s simply to stack the Tigers against Bryse Wilson. He’s only recorded one fifth inning out over his three starts with eight runs allowed. A 3.1 K-BB% with a 90.3 mph EV is not going to keep anyone in a major league rotation for too long. A 4.49 DRA is his only estimator below a 4.70 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Wilson since last season. Jonathan Schoop (78 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Robbie Grossman (104 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Miguel Cabrera (94 wRC+, .140 ISO) are currently the top three projected point per dollar values on FanDuel (Bryan Reynolds is fourth in this same game). Of course, this is more due to price tag (all $2.6K or less) and matchup than their own production. The Tigers do own the fourth highest team run total on the board (4.61). Javier Baez (107 wRC+, .220 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup above $3K on FD, while Jeimer Candelario (114 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Akil Baddoo (118 wRC+, .212 ISO) are top 10 projected values as well.

Detroit also is one of just two teams featuring multiple top 10 projected values on DraftKings, one who doesn’t even make the list on FanDuel and that’s because Spencer Torkelson (100 wRC+, .136 ISO) costs $100 less on DraftKings. He’s joined by Grossman. Baez is the only one costing above $3.5K on DraftIngs as well. We also find both Franchy Cordero ($2.1K) and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2K) as top 10 values against Noah Syndergaard. This is purely a function of cost. Neither Syndergaard, nor Cordero have much in the way of volume the last couple of years, while Bradley has been very silent (31 wRC+ vs RHP). The top projected value on DraftKings is currently Jose Miranda at just $2K. Remember that Baltimore plays a bit more difficultly for RH power these days, but Bruce Zimmermann still has a 92.4 mph EV this year and Miranda makes top projected overall batters Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa much easier fits.

Entire Top Half of This Lineup Projects Strongly

In a scoring environment where four runs is the average after nearly a month’s worth of play, it still seems a bit light that only six teams on an 11 game slate reach 4.25 implied runs and only four exceed four and a half. The top two offenses come from Coors tonight (Rockies 5.68, Nationals 4.82) and we have to question how much we’ll see that reflected in ownership numbers. Only three lineups currently feature multiple top 10 projected bats (PlateIQ). We’re not surprised to see Shohei Ohtani (144 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (225 wRC+, .448 ISO) up there no matter who they’re facing. In this case, both are top three overall projected bats at Fenway against Michael Wacha. His 1.77 ERA through four starts for Boston is purely the product of a .194 BABIP and 92.6 LOB%. While he has just a 10.0 K-BB% due to a double digit walk rate, the real wonder is how he’s been able to keep those runs off the board with a 91.2 mph EV. It’s RHBs that own the edge on him via wOBA (.329 to .306), but Statcast pushes LHBs up to a .341 xwOBA since last year as well. The Angels have a 4.45 team total in a great hitting park.

No surprise either to find four Rockies among the top 10 either. Erick Fedde’s 2.97 K/SwStr is the highest mark on the board, by far, which means his 23.5 K% should not be sustainable with his current 7.9 SwStr%. The latter mark has been below that in each of his last three starts too. In addition to a 9.9 BB%, he does appear to be reversing some gains made last year. You might think an 84.5 mph EV saves him, but even with the contact profile, he has a 5.33 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. PlateIQ projections really like C.J. Cron (122 wRC+, .251 ISO), Charlie Blackmon (98 wRC+, .174 ISO), Connor Joe (114 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Randal Grichuk (84 wRC+, .177 ISO), which should encompass the top half of the Rockie lineup, against Fedde tonight.

The only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected batters is the Minnesota Twins with just a 3.93 implied run line. Byron Buxton has smashed LHP since last year (179 wRC+, .360 ISO), while Carlos Correa has not (138 wRC+, .150 ISO). The .336 wOBA and .373 xwOBA RHBs own against Bruce Zimmermann since last year helps and he still owns a 92.4 mph EV this year, but has also struck out 21 of 80 batters with just six walks and Baltimore has become a much tougher park on right-handed power since moving the fences back this off-season.

Bottom of the Board Pitching in High Upside Matchups

The bottom of the board is fairly well favored in point per dollar projections (PlateIQ), especially on DraftKings. Ryan Yarbrough makes his first start or appearance of the season tonight and currently projects as the top point per dollar value on either site for $6K or less. With a career and 2021 84.8 mph EV, he’s an excellent contact manager with great control (5.2 BB%), but few strikeouts (19.5 K%). He’s in a great spot in Oakland (28.3 K% vs LHP), but his own lack of upside and workload uncertainty may still make him a difficult roster.

The good news is that Michael Pineda has not walked any of the 39 batters he’s faced. The bad news is just about everything else, as he’s only struck out four, while his velocity was down below 90 mph in his last start. In fact, it was coming back at him (95 mph EV) more than five mph harder than he was sending it in. The result was three home runs. And it wasn’t any better in his first start (94.1 mph EV), despite the more positive results (no runs). However, he’s another pitcher projections currently like on a point per dollar basis for just $5.8K in a favorable spot at home against the Pirates (86 wRC+, 26.4 K% vs RHP).

Cristian Javier might be the most interesting of the low priced ($6.8K) top five projected values on DraftKings. He has struck out 16 of 51 batters faced this year. With only 27.6% of his contact on the ground and a 90 mph EV, 10% of batted balls against him have been barreled with just one of three leaving the yard. He has walked only three though. Lack of a third pitch (fastball/slider 90%) may work against him in a starting role, while Seattle has a 116 wRC+ and 12.1 K-BB% vs RHP. Yet, he does have some strikeout upside that is otherwise lacking for less than $7K tonight.

Two more potential DK SP2 arms worth mentioning are Tyler Mahle ($6.9K) and Bruce Zimmermann ($6.1K). Neither project all that strongly, but for different reasons. Mahle has a 6.45 ERA that is purely a function of BABIP (.388) and LOB (54.1%). He’s walking too many (10.8%) with fewer strikeouts (23.5%), but the swings and misses are there (11.6 SwStr% vs 11.4% last year) and he hasn’t allowed a single barrel yet with five popups. His worst estimator is a 4.01 SIERA. The Brewers have been hitting the ball better, but are still a below average offense vs RHIP (89 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP) and Milwaukee can be considered a park upgrade for him. Zimmermann has struck out 21 of 80 batters with just six walks, However, there are still issues in a contact profile that contains a 92.4 mph EV. Allowing just four barrels (7.5%) produces a 3.61 xERA that’s right next to a 3.64 DRA as his worst estimators. Things improve by more than half a run when neutralizing the contact profile. Dimension alterations have made it very difficult for right-handed power in Baltimore this year and while the Twins have a 112 wRC+ vs LHP this season, it comes with a 24.7 K%.

Mid-Range Pitcher Could Greatly Benefit From Weather Boost

The middle of the board may not offer a ton of upside tonight, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting pitchers. One of the more interesting pitchers on the board might be Drew Smyly tonight. Despite all the issues in the White Sox lineup, they have still smashed LHP (139 wRC+) this year. That said, the wind is blowing in from left at Wrigley and Smyly has made some changes. He’s cut down his four seam usage to one-quarter of his offerings, while increasing his cutter to the same frequency. The result has been fewer strikeouts (16.7%), but with a 13.4 SwStr% that strongly suggests that won’t remain the case. More surprisingly, he seems to becoming a ground ball pitcher (54.8%), which he may have to be at Wrigley. It is a bit mind-boggling that he’s induced four infield flies, while six of his remaining 24 non-ground balls have been barrels, yet he has just an 81.5 mph EV. Either way, he’s currently projected as the second best point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on FanDuel tonight.

Aside from Brandon Woodruff, there really are no mid-range pitchers who project that well on DraftKings between $6K and $9K. Something you might have to stare at for a minute or two before it sinks in is that Brad Keller has the best DRA in the majors at 2.80. He costs just $7.5K on DraftKings in a decent home matchup with the Cardinals (89 wRC+, but just a 19 K% vs RHP), at least in terms of run prevention. We could say the same of Dakota Hudson (Royals 79 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP), but who wants to pay more than $8K for his 6.5 K-BB% and 90 mph EV?

German Marquez projects as a top five value on FD ($6.1K), but since opening the season with a gem against the Dodgers, at Coors no less, he has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) over just 14 innings. He struck out just a single Phillie last time out, in his first road start. He’s walked only four (4.2%) with 51.9% of his contact on the ground, but a 91.2 mph EV has still resulted in 9.1% Barrels/BBE with just a 14.7 K% (7.7 SwStr%). Velocity and spin rates are in line with last year, but the Whiff rate on basically every one of his pitches is down for some reason. A 94.5 Z-Contact% is more than an eight point jump from last season. He’s home against the Nats (113 wRC+, 17.2 K% last seven days).

Julio Urias projects fairly well on DraftKings, but his velocity remains down 1.8 mph from last year, according to Statcast. However, the fastball is getting better results (.331 xwOBA last season compared to .267 this year) and since failing to strike out a single batter in his first start, he’s struck out 15 of 57 since. He retains a double digit walk rate and single digit SwStr% though. In addition, while an 87.9 mph EV would be a perfectly respectable mark, it’s nearly a full mile per hour above his career high (87.1 mph in 2020). He’s still managing contact well enough that a 2.59 xERA is very much in line with his 2.50 ERA, but all other estimators are nearly two runs higher (.170 BABIP). The Giants have just an 88 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs LHP though.

Top Projected Pitcher Also A Great Value

Woodruff is currently the top projected pitcher on the board and is tied for the top point per dollar projection on DraftKings. The unfortunate part of that is that it’s very likely going to shoot his ownership up in a cozy little matchup against the ailing Reds (57 wRC+ on the road, 71 wRC+ vs RHP). However, outside his first start against Pittsburgh (his third of the year), Woodruff has scuffled this year. Even including those results, he owns just a 22.9 K% (13.3 K-BB%) with the contact profile doing most of the heavy lifting (5.6% Barrels/BBE, 86.8 mph EV). He’s throwing a ton of first pitch strikes (72.3%) with the same rate of chasing as last year (34.7%), but the Zone rate is down (41.3%). There almost seems enough ammunition to consider a fading (or at least coming in underweight) in this spot, but the juicy matchup makes it so difficult. For more on top of the board arms, including which one might go under-owned tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.