DFS Alerts

Adam Eaton leading off as usual and in a good position to have success today

Ivan Nova has been on a pitch count to start the 2016 season. Still, to begin the game, White Sox lefties like Adam Eaton and Jimmy Rollins get a chance to face a pitcher with an early wOBA of 0.348 this year against LHB. Nova’s wOBA against LHB in 2015 was 0.387, not leaving much hope for positive regression. Since the beginning of last year, Eaton has exhibited a wRC+ of 128 against RHP and looks to be a high floor play today from the leadoff position.

Kevin Roth’s weather report is posted with CIN@PHI receiving an ORANGE rating. Check out the full report here: https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Targeting Astos right-handed bats a viable strategy today

Clay Buchholz struggles have carried over from 2015. So far in the early 2016 season, he has an xFIP of 5.76 against LHB and 4.58 against RHB. To make things worse, his xFIP at home has been 5.76, even higher than his road xFIP of 4.58. Houston Astros right-handed bats like Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are still very much in play

Yunel Escobar scratched; Jefry Marte batting 8th as his replacement

Escobar will be out of the lineup due to a thumb injury and could possibly be headed to the disabled list. Jefry Marte is replacing him in the lineup and is not even available on DraftKings as a late-swap option. With Marte batting 8th, everyone moves up a spot from the last game and Kole Calhoun will be the new leadoff hitter.

Shelby Miller walks 9.4% of batters and has allowed a .403 wOBA at home

The Giants are 4th in the league with a BB% of 10.3% and could take advantage of Shelby Miller tonight. Leadoff man Denard Span has a .365 wOBA and 131 wRC+ against RHP and should be able to see five at-bats. Brandon Belt is batting fifth and sports a .452 wOBA and 181 wRC+ on the road in 2016. Expect his ownership to be low with his salary so elevated and the plethora of options on the slate. The Giants have a projected run total of 4.90 (4th highest), so their bats do deserve some consideration even though they are mostly all over $4,000 on DraftKings.

Nick Tropeano missing a ton of bats (13.8 SwStr%), but also getting hit hard (37.8 hard%)

Nick Tropeano has been one of the more interesting pitchers of 2016; he’s missing bats at an elite rate (13.8 SwStr%, 36 Ks in 31.2 IP), but is also being victimized by plenty of hard contact (37.8 hard% overall). He’s also yet to surpass six innings pitched in any game, something that’s pretty rare for an AL pitcher who has already made six starts this season. A lot of that has to do with his high pitch counts that result from a lot of strikeouts and walks; while the strikeouts are nice, he’s also walking hitters far too often, especially LH hitters (14 BBs in 16 IP). Tropeano is a potential GPP target due to a relatively weak group of pitchers taking the hill tonight, but his floor is very low, something that is more or less built into his price already. As for the Seattle bats, the LH hitters are where we’ll want to look. Robinson Cano is still struggling in his home park (.491 wOBA on the road, .294 wOBA at home) making him nothing more than a deep GPP play at a stocked 2B position; Rougned Odor, Daniel Murphy and Neil Walker are much stronger targets in his price range. Cano does own a solid .278 ISO at home against RH pitching, but that number fell to .155 in a much bigger sample size last season. Nori Aoki and Ketel Marte are probably too expensive (both over $3K on FanDuel) to make them worth targeting, which leaves us with Kyle Seager, Seth Smith and Adam Lind. Like Cano, Seager is also better on the road, but does own a respectable .349 wOBA/.249 ISO at home against RHP, making him a viable GPP play at 3B. Seth Smith being bumped down to the #6 spot in the order does make him a little less appealing, but his $2,900 price tag on FanDuel keeps him in play due to his .366 wOBA/.177 ISO against RHP. Adam Lind is nothing more than a deep GPP target near the bottom of the 1B salary pool; Matt Adams is basically the same price on FanDuel and offers much more upside hitting in the clean-up spot for St. Louis.

Cardinals have 128 wRC+ on the road, 126 wRC+ vs RHP

The Cardinals lineup is full of RH bats that punish RHP and Ross Stripling has allowed a .315 to RHBs so far, while holding LHBs to a .229 mark. Yadier Molina has the lowest wRC+ (102) of all the RH bats in the lineup since last season and Stephen Piscotty is 2nd worst at 121. Grichuk (132 wRC+, .265 ISO) and Holliday (131 wRC+, .191 ISO) thump RHP since the start of last season, while newcomer at SS, Diaz, bats 8th, but has a 193 wRC+ and .293 ISO vs RHP so far. Matt Carpenter (152 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the strongest play from the other side of the plate with Brandon Moss OUT for the 2nd straight night. The Cardinals are projected for one of the lower run lines tonight (3.55), so many of their bats against an average at best RHP might even go under-owned.

Rockies square off with Matt Harvey in Coors

Harvey hasn’t had a great start to 2016, although he has begun to turn things around in his last few turns, putting forth solid fantasy efforts against the Reds and Padres. The fact that he takes on this offense in Coors makes him an easy arm to avoid on most sites, and while his price on DraftKings is a little appealing, the chances of him pitching well in this spot doesn’t make it a worthwhile gamble. He owns a 21.5% Hd-Sft ratio against LH hitters, which bodes very well for Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. All three are viable targets in any format, with Gonzalez being the best target of the bunch on FanDuel where he’s the cheapest of the three ($4,000). Harvey has allowed a .391 wOBA to LH bats including 10 XBHs in 20 IP, but he has done a nice job against RH hitters (.276 wOBA, two XBHs in 20 IP). Nolan Arenado is still a viable GPP play at 3B given his outstanding numbers against RH pitching (.435 wOBA, .366 ISO at home vs. RHP), but taking the discount on Josh Donaldson (nearly $1K cheaper on FanDuel) is probably the better route to take in cash games. The 6-7-8 hitters aren’t worth targeting tonight due to their inflated price tags.

Gray has struggled at home, Mets have 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP

Jonathan Gray has struggled at home in his career as have most pitchers, but it gets mentioned here because he comes in with a 24.7 K% through 13 career starts, but has allowed at least four runs in each of his last five home outings with a 17.9 HR/FB at home overall since being called up. The Mets bats are coming off an LA trip where their LH bats have struggled though, and Gray is under $7K. This is one of the few situations where you might consider the upside of a Colorado pitcher with the rest of the board looking so weak. In the end, the Mets still have a powerful offense with the highest projected run line tonight (5.1), keeping most of their bats in play with the top ones being Cespedes (147 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP since last season), Conforto (152 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP), Granderson (141 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP), Duda (130 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP).

Rangers projected as one of the top offenses outside of Coors Field

R.A Dickey (4.10 ERA, 4.74 SIERA) has only struck out 14.5% of batters and faces a Rangers squad that strikes out only 19% of the time, which is fifth best in the league so far this season. Rougned Odor has a 129 wRC+ and .284 ISO against RHP in 2016 but is also one of the top-priced 2B on the slate. Odor has been consistently producing in the leadoff spot and his salary reflects as much. Nomar Mazara has a .388 wOBA against RHP with a 146 wRC+ and is the cheapest LHB on DraftKings to use from the Rangers lineup. Mitch Moreland has a .421 wOBA with a 163 wRC+ at home and only has six plate appearances against Dickey but has his gone yard on him once.

Toronto has been less potent vs LHP (101 wRC+) this year, but still 2nd highest run projection (5.05)

The Blue Jays have a 101 wRC+ and 23.1 K% with a 12.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year, but Martin Perez has just a 1.2 K-BB% this year and offers very little upside. He does keep the ball on the ground, but has allowed a .333 wOBA to RHBs since last season. Josh Donaldson (198 wRC+, .349 ISO vs LHP since last season) smashes lefties and is a strong play against them at any cost, while Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .294 ISO vs LHP) and Bautista (126 wRC+, .209 ISO vs LHP) have struggled a bit this season, but cost a lot less. Toronto has the 2nd highest run projection tonight (5.05) even though there’s a game at Coors.

Braun, Santana have 160+ wRC+ vs LHP since 2015

Christian Friedrich is a late replacement for the Padres and he’s not expected to go deep (just 9.2 innings in two AAA starts this year), but both Ryan Braun (167 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Domingo Santana (162 wRC+, .247 ISO vs LHP) should get a couple of shots and absolutely pummel LHP. Jonathan Villar (116 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) jumps back between them in the 2nd spot. Friedrich allowed a .389 wOBA to 514 RHBs faced last year.

Volquez has 7.0 HR/FB and 5.3 Hard-Soft% at home since 2015 and faces worst offense in baseball

Edinson Volquez has been pretty bad after an interesting start, but that’s been Edinson Volquez’s career. Players usually want to pick their spots with him and at home in Kansas City against the worst offense in baseball is about as good as it gets. The Braves have a 66 wRC+ with a 3.9 HR/FB and 5.4 Hard% vs RHP and those numbers are even worse on the road. Since last season, Volquez has a 7.0 HR/FB and 5.3 Hard-Soft% at home and all of his bad starts this season have come on the road. Atlanta is running neck and neck with the Yankees for lowest projected run line (3.2) and NY is facing Chris Sale. Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 228 wRC+ last seven days) and Kelly Johnson (103 wRC+ vs RHP, 178 wRC+ over the last week) for under $3K are the only real considerations in a lineup with Tyler Flowers batting cleanup against a RHP.

Teheran has allowed a .383 wOBA to LHBs since 2015

Julio Teheran hasn’t been bad this season (3.48 ERA, 3.98 SIERA, 22.3 K%) and Kansas City seems the type of big park (similar to Atlanta) that he might excel in, but he has a .383 wOBA to LHBs since last season with 4.61 xFIP on the road. We don’t know if it’s the parks, the routine away from home, or what, but we need to be conscious that it currently exists. Although Moustakas remains out, this means we can look at some of the stronger LH bats in the KC lineup, including Eric Hosmer (147 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and more affordably Kendrys Morales (119 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) or Alex Gordon (122 wRC+, .169 ISO), who may just be the best value here for around $3K, as he’s just heating up (201 wRC+, 47.1 Hard% last seven days).

Hill has lost some Ks, but continues to pitch well and is one of few strong pitching options tonight

Rich Hill joins Chris Sale far ahead of the rest of the pack tonight. We probably didn’t expect him to continue to strike out 30% of the batters he faces and he hasn’t, but he still has a double digit SwStr% and continues to pitch well facing some tough offenses recently (BAL, HOU, DET). The Rays are solid set of bats vs LHP (115 wRC+, 16.2 HR/FB), but have an 18.1 K-BB%, matching Hill’s own rate this year, while he’s allowed just two HRs and pitches in another favorable run environment tonight. Additionally, the Rays are still down a top RH bat in Logan Forsythe tonight, forcing Brandon Guyer (150 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, 233 wRC+ last seven days) into the leadoff spot as potentially the biggest value in this lineup around the $3K mark.