DFS Alerts

Chris Sale pitching more to contact, still tonight's top pitcher

Chris Sale at $12K is the only pitcher above $10K on either major site and is pitching to contact purposely more often this season according to a recent Fangraphs article. He thinks it’s working due to a 1.79 ERA, but he has .206 BABIP, 82.0 LOB%, and 6.0 HR/FB which are all quite unsustainable over the long run. He did tie a season high with nine Ks in his last start, but on just a 7.5 SwStr%. It’s good to know it might still be in him if needed though and he’s still tonight’s top pitcher against a Yankee lineup batting Chase Headley (84 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) 5th tonight. He had his first extra base hit of the season last night on a ball that barely got over the left field wall near the foul pole. We might have to scale back on upside and overall value expectations at this price, but Sale should suffer little resistance from this lineup without a single hitter exceeding a 115 wRC+ vs LHP since last season.

Odorizzi has a 5.2 HR/FB in 226 career innings at the Trop

It’s still not nearly a stable and completely reliable sample size, but it’s something that needs to be considered in that Jake Odorizzi just seldom allows HRs at home (5.2 career HR/FB – 226 innings). Along with league average swing and miss stuff, this often makes him a fairly reliable option for an average or slightly above cost at the Trop. This happens to be the case tonight facing a fairly average Oakland lineup (92 wRC+ vs RHP) on a night without a lot of standout pitching options. The A’s have just a 3.8 HR/FB and 4.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week. On the Oakland side, we can still look at Danny Valencia (133 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at a reduced cost ($3.1K DK, $2.4K FD), but would probably otherwise like to avoid attacking Odorizzi in this park.

Severino has allowed less hard contact, but five HRs last three starts

He’s actually allowed those five HRs all in his last two starts, but has had a hard hit rate below 30% in each of his last three starts, which is a major point of contention with him. HRs are something many Yankee pitchers have to suffer through at home and he’s no different with 16 allowed overall in 94.2 career innings. His K% (17.7) is down this year, but he struck out a season high nine in his last start with a 9.7 SwStr%, so perhaps things are starting to turn around as it seems that most of the hard contact he allowed has left the yard over hsi last few outings. It’s still a dangerous place to pitch, but he’s now below $7K on DraftKings. Due to the power threat, we can still consider rostering the two top threats in this lineup, who are Jose Abreu (138 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Todd Frazier (107 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP). Severino has actually been better vs LHBs (.310 wOBA), but Adam Eaton hits at the top of the order and is still in play with a 128 wRC+ vs RHP and enough power to threaten (.163 ISO vs RHP) at Yankee Stadium. None are exceptional values in the high $3K to mid-$4K range though.

Sano, Nunez hit same handed pitching well, while Tomlin has reverse split

Josh Tomlin doesn’t have a bad matchup (Minnesota 89 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP) and may even be a pitcher of some interest tonight in the middle of the board with a 21.7 K-BB% at home since last season and 18.4 K-BB% overall the last two calendar years, though the strikeout rate is down a bit this year (16.2%) and he dealt with an injury over his first few starts. The two Minnesota bats to focus on if not playing him though, are Miguel Sano (133 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP) and Eduardo Nunez (140 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) facing a pitcher with a 15 point differential in wOBA that’s higher vs RHBs (.332 vs .317) in his career. Sano has a 94.3 mph aEV and 249 foot distance this season, while Nunez is under $4K on DK and $3K on FD.

Ruiz hits cleanup, Finnegan has just a 5.8 K-BB%

The Phillies have just a 58 wRC+ that’s worse than the Braves against LHP and sit Ryan Howard tonight, but still may offer more opportunity than the pitcher they face. Brandon Finnegan has struck out more than he’s walked in just two of his last six starts and only by a combined three in those two starts. His ERA sits above four with a .214 BABIP. It’s a shame we can’t use him in this spot, but a few Philly bats offer some upside. Leadoff hitter Odubel Herrera remains hot (170 wRC+, 38.1 Hard% last seven days) in the $3.5K range on either site. Maikel Franco (132 wRC+, .280 ISO vs LHP) has a 45.0 Hard% over the last week, while Carlos Ruiz moves into the cleanup spot and has owned LHP since 2015 (159 wRC+, .246 ISO). None of these players cost more than $4K on either of the top two sites. It’s telling the Phillies have a run projection (4.37) on the middle of the board despite their complete inability to create offense vs LHP this year.

Brantley remains out vs Nolasco, who has an 18.6 K-BB%

Ricky Nolasco has taken some beatings is the rare pitcher who always has his ERA run higher than his estimators due to a career .314 BABIP and 68.2 LOB%, which has declined to 59.5% this year. There should be some bounce back from that though and the overall contact profile doesn’t look horrible (1.25 GB/FB, 14.7 LD%, 30.8 Hard%), while he maintains and excellent 18.6 K-BB%. On many daily fantasy sites, strikeouts can be just as important as run prevention, making Nolasco a high risk arm with some upside at a low cost tonight. He gets a further bump from Brantley remaining out and shortening the Cleveland lineup somewhat. Just three batters have a wRC+ above 100 vs RHP since last season now and only Kipnis (149 wRC+) above 120. Nolasco can be hit hard on occasion, keeping Kipnis as a solid play (151 wRC+ over the last week), but Napoli (199 wRC+ last seven days) and Jose Ramirez (186 wRC+ last week) are the only other hot bats in the lineup, while both are below average vs RHP.

Hellickson one of several flaws mid-priced arms with strikeout upside tonight

With the number of strong pitching options severely limited on tonight’s full slate, players may want to look into some flawed, marginally priced arms that allow a lot of hard contact, but also have above average strikeout rates who might be in good spots. Jeremy Hellickson (23.1 K%, 11.2 SwStr%, nine HRs, 17.1 Hard-Soft%) is one such arm. The Reds are not without power, but have a 65 wRC+ on the road and 77 wRC+ vs RHP with high strikeout and low walk numbers that match Hellickson’s own on the season. He’s been beaten up a bit in recent starts, but has faced far more potent offenses. If not playing him, Votto (159 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Duvall (128 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP) or even Cozart (101 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) could give you the most value, while Bruce (100 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP) could pop one, but gives you little else at an average cost. If you’re really looking for a punt catcher, Tucker Barnhart has a 154 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% over the last week.

McCullers returns vs hottest bats in the majors (175 wRC+ over the last week)

The Red Sox have a major league best 135 wRC+ at home and 175 wRC+ over the last week. Only the Orioles are a point higher against RHP (129 wRC+). Lance McCullers will be making his 2016 debut and probably be on a pitch count as he only faced 31 batters through two minor league rehab outings. He’s not usually a pitcher we’d look to attack with costly Boston bats and had a reverse platoon split last year (.260 wOBA allowed to LHBs). The Boston left handed bats hit RHPs better than the RHBs though, so that might be the way to go in this one, starting with David Ortiz (170 wRC+, .335 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has a 204 wRC+ and 52.2 Hard% over the last month, but is incredibly costly and maybe only of average value despite a potential top overall projection tonight. Two other LHBs bat lower in the order but have been on fire. Travis Shaw (132 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since last season) bats 6th and has a 210 wRC+ over the last week, offering some value for less than $4K. You’re not supposed roster 9th place hitters, especially for $4K, but Jackie Bradley Jr. (126 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been on fire, doing more with fewer opportunities and could provide some contrarian value tonight (as he did last night). He has a 325 wRC+ and 47.6 Hard% over the last week and has been hitting lefties well too for when they get into the bullpen (though the LOOGY is generally saved for Ortiz). Be sure to check Kevin Roth’s update later as this game was the only one in severe danger of being rained out as of his morning report.

Harper has 6 career HRs, 104.1 mph avg exit velocity since last year vs Koehler

Tom Koehler has been a one of the worst pitchers in the majors this year with an ERA and estimators above five along with a 17.3 K%. He has allowed a .340 wOBA to RHBs since last season. The issue with the Nationals remains their complete ineptness in hitting RHP by their RHBs with not a single one being above average since last season or particularly hot at the moment. Bryce Harper (198 wRC+, .349 ISO, .39.1 Hard% since last season) and Daniel Murphy (136 wRC+, .208 ISO, .34.6 Hard% vs RHP since last season) remain fine overall targets likely to do damage tonight, but Murphy now offers less value with a price tag in line with Harper’s. Harper might be the must play of the night at any cost. He has six career HRs off Koehler in 31 PAs with a 104.1 mph aEV on eight batted balls over the last year.

Orioles have top offense vs RHP (130 wRC+)

Justin Verlander has inconsistency shown flashes of past brilliance this year, but been pounded in other starts and he’s got a terrible matchup tonight in Baltimore. The Orioles are the top offense vs RHP (130 wRC+), including a 17.3 HR/FB against them. Manny Machado (157 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Chris Davis (163 wRC+, .348 ISO, 44.8 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) are strong overall plays nearly every time they face a RHP at home, even at high prices. Jones, Trumbo, Alvarez, and Schoop all have a wRC+ of at least 110 with an ISO of at least .179 against righties and 30 Hard% since last year. All also have a 127 wRC+ or better over the last week and offer similar values at lower, but still moderate prices. Justin Verlander is not our top target, but not a pitcher to avoid anymore and even can serve as a contrarian stack against if other players still think so.

Pirates visit Cubs in lone afternoon game

Vegas thinks some runs will be scored in the only day game this Friday as they have given the game an over/under of nine – somewhat surprising considering two solid pitchers in Francisco Liriano and Jason Hammel are pitching today. Liriano started off slow but has looked good his last two starts. He as always has high upside with K/9 of over 10 thus far this season but he’s also been a bit wild (4.89 BB/9) and vulnerable to the long ball (1.29 HR/9) so the right handed bats of Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, and Jorge Soler are all in play as GPP options. Hammel has been performing better than his numbers indicate (1.85 ERA compared to 4.38 xFIP) and doesn’t have the upside Liriano has as he only has a 7.41 K/9 rate this season (although it was 9+ last season so that potential is there). He does have a career wOBA vs LH bats of .340 so John Jaso and Gregory Polanco make for excellent plays if you are taking part in the all day slate.

Make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for further weather updates.

NO Moss in tonight's Cardinals lineup against Weaver

Brandon Moss was very likely going to be a popular play tonight against Jered Weaver (4.72 ERA, 5.32 SIERA), who has allowed a .341 wOBA to LHBs since last season. The Cardinals have a 122 wRC+ vs RHP, built on RHBs that hit righties well. This is a strong lineup with every batter holding a 99 wRC+ or better vs RHP since last season. The top half are all strong plays tonight, led by Matt Carpenter’s 151 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP. In fact, the top three along with Grichuk and Hazlebaker are all above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015. The Cardinals are a great and more affordable alternative to an Orioles stack tonight.

Happy Kershaw Day

You know the drill, play Kershaw! He owns an incredible 32.8K% and is only walking 1.5% of batters this year. Yes, you read that correctly. Insane. The Mets own the lowest Vegas projected run total of the slate at just 2.29. Fire up Kershaw with confidence in all formats.

Greinke owns a 4.00 xFIP and 32.1 Hard% at Chase Field this year

Zack Greinke (as imagined) hasn’t performed very well pitching in Chase Field this season, owning a 4.00 xFIP, 32.1% Hard% and 18.2K%. Tonight he will take on the Giants, who as a team strikeout the least in the league against RHP (15.6K%) and walk 11.4% of the time against them. There are better options tonight than Greinke, as his strikeout upside is limited given the matchup. As a team, the Giants own a Vegas projected run total of 3.71, making them relatively unappealing options. You could consider Buster Posey (.355 wOBA – 130 wRC+ career vs RHP) though, as the catcher position is a tough one to fill tonight.