DFS Alerts
Cory Rasmus owns a 6.26 xFIP through 14.1 IP in relief this season, will be making his first start against TBR
Cory Rasmus will be making his first start of the season tonight against the Rays. He has only pitched 14.1 innings this year, and likely wont pitch very far into the game. He hasn’t been good during his relief appearances this year, as he owns a xFIP of 6.26 and his K% is only 17.9%. He’s definitely a pitcher to target, but keep in mind that TBR hitters most likely won’t get more than a few at bats against him. The Rays own a Vegas projected run total of 4.01 but their lineup doesn’t feature any must plays this evening. Corey Dickerson has been moved down to the sixth spot, but still represents a solid value at $2.5K on DraftKings given his .333 ISO and .358 wOBA against RHP this season. Logan Forsythe is also a solid option tonight, as he owns a .200 ISO and .390 wOBA against RHP thus far in 2016.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe
Bumgarner has at least seven Ks each of last five starts
Madison Bumgarner has struck out at least seven in each of his last five starts, though the SwStr% (10.7) and velocity are still down just a bit from last year. The Rockies, with the addition of a couple of RH bats (Story, Reynolds and Raburn) have pounded LHP for a 27.1 HR/FB and 35.2 Hard%, but this is a different kind of park. Bumgarner has a 30.1 K% at home since the start of last season and is the top overall pitcher behind Syndergaard tonight. The only two Colorado bats worth considering are Raburn (183 wRC+, .307 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for below $3K and Trevor Story (192 wRC+, .483 ISO vs LHP) for $3.5K on DraftKings at a very tough position tonight. Most of our exposure should be on Bumgarner in this matchup though with Colorado having the lowest run projection (2.9) on the board tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Raburn, Trevor Story
Oakland/Baltimore game postponed, will be played as a double-header tomorrow
Make sure not to roster any players from this game. These teams will square off in a day/night double-header tomorrow.
As reported by: Susan Slusser
Joe Panik back from injury, Buster Posey owns a .358 wOBA and 132wRC+ in his career against RHP
Chad Bettis owns a 17.1K% and 4.02 SIERA thus far through the 2016 season. He will be taking on the Giants tonight who Vegas projects to score 4.10 runs tonight. Going up against Madison Bumgarner, the Rockies are a +174 underdogs which greatly diminishes Bettis’ shot at getting his fourth win of the year. He should really be in consideration in any format tonight. For the Giants, Buster Posey (.358 wOBA and 132wRC career vs RHP) is hitting cleanup and represents a top play at the catching position. Note that Joe Panik is returning from injury tonight and will be slotted back in the two hole.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Buster Posey Syndergaard is the clear cut top SP of tonight’s slate
This one’s pretty simple, play Syndergaard in all cash games tonight. He’s facing the light hitting Padres in San Diego, who own the lowest Vegas projected run total of the evening (2.93). Syndergaard owns an insane 34.4K% to go along with 2.04 SIERA this season. The Padres strikeout 25.7% of the time against RHP and rank in the bottom three teams in just about all of the major offensive statistics. Don’t think yourself out of this one, roster Syndergaard tonight.
As reported by: Fangraphs Pineda owns a HR/FB of 21.9%, David Ortiz has .353 ISO at Fenway this year vs RHP
Michael Pineda has had HR problems this year, as he owns an inflated HR/FB of 21.9%. He does own a 24.2K% but he is allowing a 34Hard% and will face an offense that is more than capable of hitting for power on any given night. Speaking of bombs, David Ortiz is in a great spot for one tonight. Ortiz owns a .436 wOBA, .302 ISO, and 171 wRC+ in his career at Fenway against RHP. Given Pineda’s high HR/FB rate, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ortiz went yard on him this evening. Consider Pineda a high risk-high reward GPP option tonight, given his ability to rack up the strikeouts.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: David Ortiz Latos has a 93.8 LOB% and just a 12.6 K%; Dozier out
Mat Latos has a 93.8 LOB% that is screaming for regression with just a 12.6 K%. It’s going to come crashing down sooner than later and there are several strong options in this Minnesota lineup that could hammer away at that foundation tonight. Unfortunately, Brian Dozier will not be among them. Miguel Sano is one of the top OF plays tonight with a 140 wRC+ and .229 ISO vs RHP. He has a 94 mph aEV and 255 ft avg distance this season. Eduardo Nunez moves into the two spot at a weak SS position and has a strong reverse split (145 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) with a 192 wRC+ over the last week. Byung Ho Park has thumped RHP for a 150 wRC+ and .347 ISO through 80 plate appearances.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez, Byung-ho Park, Mat Latos Seattle has a 17.2 HR/FB on the road.
Doug Fister has only allowed more than three runs in one start, but it’s not even the one he walked seven batters in and he’s struck out more than two just twice. Seattle has a 17.2 HR/FB on the road this season and Fister has allowed five HRs so far. Seattle has the 2nd highest run projection tonight (4.6), so we’ll want a lot of exposure to the guys who can go deep in this line and also the the guys up top they’ll be driving in. Seth Smith through Adam Lind are all strong hitters vs RHP and only Lind has (-38 wRC+) has a wRC+ below 170 over the last week. Cano is above $5K on DraftKings, but the top through middle of this lineup looks very strong tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Nelson Cruz, Doug Fister, Kyle Seager Rick Porcello owns a 28.1K% and 2.83 SIERA this season, Yankees are one of the leagues worst against RHP
Rick Porcello has pitched very well and is 5-0 to start the 2016 season. He currently owns a 28.1K%, 2.83 SIERA, and 4.7BB%. Tonight he will face the Yankees who are the 28th ranked team against RHP this season. Collectively, they own a 78 wRC+ and .284 wOBA against them thus far. While the Yankees do have a few hitters who hit RHP well, they aren’t a matchup to completely stay away from. Porcello possesses pretty high upside, and will most likely be an underowned GPP play this evening. If you are looking to target a few NYY hitters, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira are your guys. McCann is a very solid play whenever he’s facing a righty at home, where he had 20 HR’s and a.285 ISO against them last year. Mark Teixeira is also in play, as he hit 25 HR’s and posted a .385 ISO against RHP at home in 2015.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira Walker had nearly half his 25 Ks in one outing against Houston, has kept ball on the ground
Taijuan Walker has had success doing things a little differently than in the past this year. He struck out 11 of 27 Astros two outings back, but has only struck out 14 of the other 95 batters he’s faced this year. He’s doing it with excellent control and ground balls. Previously a HR machine (13.0 HR/FB last year), he’s attempting to mitigate that issue by generating more ground balls (2.14 GB/FB 2016, 0.99 GB/FB 2015). He’s made gains in control (3 BBs) and HRs (1), but it’s taken away from his upside (8.1 SwStr%). Houston has a 26.5 K% against RHP and should help him out there, making him a solid GPP option with a potentially higher floor than you’d expect tonight by keeping the ball on the ground. RHBs have hit him a lot better this year and a bit better for his career (.301 wOBA vs .295 wOBA), so if you’re determined to seek out a Houston bat, Carlos Correa (134 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP) remains viable at a weak position and has a 180 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa Gregory Polanco hitting third, Kang back from injury tonight
The Pirates have activated Jung Ho Kang from the DL and he will be making the start at 3B and bat 6th. Gregory Polanco has been hitting well recently and has been moved up the third spot tonight against RHP Carlos Martinez. Martinez owns an elavated 32.7% Hard% and has seen his K% decline to 20.7% this year. The Pirates rank in the top 5 against RHP this season, owning a .341 wOBA and 111 wRC+ against them. Martinez is not an overly attract option tonight, but also isn’t someone we want to go out of our way to attack. Gregory Polanco (.411 wOBA – 156 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) is a solid target tonight, as is Starling Marte (.392 wOBA – 145 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016).
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Jung-Ho Kang, Carlos Martinez, Starling Marte Nolasco has a career best 19.2 K%, ERA well above his peripherals (again)
Ricky Nolasco has a 19.2 K-BB% that matches the best mark of his career back in 2009…….when he had a 5.09 ERA in 185 innings. He has a habit of doing that with a .314 BABIP and 68.4 LOB% over 1,500 career innings, which is enough of a sample size to consider realistically. The other thing to note is that while 4.05 ERA is again well above his estimators (as usual), his peripherals play in daily fantasy where a strikeout is equal to a run on many sites and excellent control will help him to not make a total mess of things. This is a pitcher who may allow a few runs, but could also generate six or seven strikeouts without a walk and be well worth his $6-7K price tag. Nolasco has a bit of under the radar appeal her. Jose Abreu remains a good play tonight because he exhibits a strong reverse split (139 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Nolasco remains very hittable. Abreu has a 196 wRC+ over the last week. The White Sox do have the top projected run line tonight (4.74) via our Vegas Odds page, but it’s difficult to discern exactly why.
Other tagged players: Jose Abreu Phillies own 36 wRC+ and 29.5K% against LHP this year, face Wei-Yin Chen tonight
The Phillies have been terrible against LHP this year, owning a 36 wRC+, 29.5K% and .231 wOBA when facing them. LHP Wei-Yin Chen makes for a very solid cash game play this evening. The Phillies don’t hit for any power and can’t get on base, posing little threat to any SP. Chen doesn’t have overpowering stuff (19.2K%), but owns a 3.55 xFIP and is walking only 4.8% of batters. While he doesn’t carry the upside to be GPP play, he should be on the radars of those playing on two pitcher sites.
As reported by: Fangraphs Blair has had an unimpressive start to career (-2.4 K-BB%)
Aaron Blair has been a prospect of some note, included in one of the robberies of Arizona by Atlanta over the last year, but has started his major league career with a 90 mph fastball and -2.4 K-BB% through an unimpressive two starts. His K% dropped below 20 last year at both double and triple A in the Arizona system as well. Atlanta is not a great hitter’s park, but strong middle of the order bats Goldschmidt (152 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Peralta (142 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP) are still in play. Both remain strong hitters (120+ wRC+) on the road. Peralta is always a great value against RHP for less than $3.5K.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Blair Kenta Maeda has only allowed 5 runs in 32 IP this season
Kenta Maeda has pitched very well in his first season the show, allowing only 5 runs through 32 IP. He will be squaring off against the potent Blue Jays offense tonight in Toronto. He’s just not as appealing of an option this evening, given the opponent and availability of other quality SP options on the slate. Toronto owns a Vegas projected run total of 4.23, and are coming off a 12 run shelling of Derek Holland last night. They look to stay hot tonight, but aren’t must plays by any means. Probably best suited for GPP’s, Josh Donaldson (.350 wOBA career vs RHP) and Jose Bautista (.371 wOBA career vs RHP) are always a threat to drive the ball out of the ballpark, especially when playing at home. Otherwise, Michael Saunders (.373 wOBA – 142 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) provides a nice value at the leadoff spot at only $3.3K on DraftKings.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista