DFS Alerts
Jays have been average vs RHP so far, but big 3 still dominating
Ubaldo Jimenez might be the most inconsistent pitcher in the league. There’s not telling what you’re going to get from 9 Ks, 1 BB in his first game to 5 Ks, 4 BBs in his last. The Blue Jays have actually been under-achieving (102 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 27.6 Hard%, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP). Those are average numbers aside from the high K rate and we expect much more. This doesn’t mean we’re suddenly leaning towards Ubaldo because the guys you’re mostly using for daily fantasy are still doing just fine. The big three (Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion) all have a 150+ wRC+, .250+ ISO vs RHP since last season and a 176 to 182 wRC+ over the last week. You can add new leadoff hitter Michael Suanders to that list with a 176 wRC+ and consider a Jays stack here if you already weren’t.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Ubaldo Jimenez
Chen velocity down, Zimmerman 180 wRC+ vs LHP
Wei-Yin Chen missed a start with an elbow issue, but his velocity has been down about two mph in both the start before and after that. This is a big red flag even though he pitched well in his last game, but you might not even need an elbow to beat Atlanta. The Nationals have mauled LHP (171 wRC) in their 97 PAs against them. Bryce Harper has no bias, destroying LHP for a 181 wRC+ since last season. Ryan Zimmerman has been equal to the task with a 180 wRC+, .357 ISO, 51.3 Hard% vs southpaws. Jayson Werth is coming on with a 64.3 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Wei-Yin Chen Rays have struck out 27.2% vs RHP
Rick Porcello’s surface numbers tell a different story than the deeper ones. He’s struck out 15 of 50 batters (good), but his SwStr% is down (7.3%) (bad). He’s allowed four HRs, but has only faced the Blue Jays and has the 2nd lowest exit velocity (82.35) among those with 20+ batted balls. Now he faces a different lineup with some pop, but also a 27.2 K% vs RHP in the early going. That amount of swing and miss makes Porcello an interesting play without too many standouts in his price range. Since he has become HR prone, Corey Dickerson might be the guy you want on the TB side. He has a 142 wRC+, .291 ISO, 41.6 Hard% vs RHP since last season, although a large portion of that sample comes from Colorado. Brad Miller (116 wRC+ vs RHP) has started to find his way with a 61.5 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller Brett Gardner scratched, Yankees looks to break out of hitting slump against Kendall Graveman
The Yankees hitters haven’t performing particularly well over the past few games and hope to breakout of their slump tonight against the A’s Kendall Graveman. Graveman is known as a ground ball pitcher who isn’t going to strike many out (15.6K% – 4.43 SIERA last year). Though hitless through his last 15 AB’s, Brian McCann is hitting RHP well this season (.459 wOBA – .269 ISO vs RHP in 31 AB’s) and provides us with a nice option at the catcher position. Mark Teixeira (.399 wOBA – .339 ISO – 155 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) also can be considered a serviceable option tonight and hit 12 HR’s at home last year at home against RHP. While it may be slightly risky playing any Yankee’s in your cash games tonight, they can be considered viable GPP targets given their favorable matchup with Graveman. NOTE: Brett Gardner has been scratched tonight, making it a wise decision NOT to include him on any of your rosters this evening. Starlin Castro will move up and hit second, making him a much more appealing option tonight.
As reported by: George A. King III Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira
Mets have hit 10 HRs last two games
The Mets are rolling out the HR machine again (10 in the last two days), but some may not realize that they’ve done most of their damage against a horrendous Phillies bullpen. Jeremy Hellickson was beaten up by Washington, but has showed some positive signs, including a 9.9 SwStr% in each start and a 20.0 K-BB% on the season. The bad news is a 0.97 career GB/FB with a 36.4 Hard% this season. This one could go either way, but Hellickson is cheap and likely to be low owned with some upside against a team that’s smashing the ball. For the Mets, the lowest wRC+ vs RHP since last season in the lineup is 102 in the 8 spot. The top five are all above 120. The top four aside from Wright are between 143-150. Conforto is still ridiculously cheap, possibly because he’s being lifted for defense late, even though he’s not necessarily the worst OFer. You can expect many players to be heavy on the Mets tonight. They have the 2nd highest run projection (4.6), but a small amount of Hellickson exposure in one or two Met faded lineups might not be crazy. If they pound the bullpen again, you can win both ways.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, David Wright, Lucas Duda, Jeremy Hellickson Struggling Chis Archer still boasts a 30.7K%, looks to rebound against the Red Sox
Chris Archer (10.7BB% – 47.7% Hard Hit Rate – 2.93HR/9) hasn’t yet pitched to his true ability this season, but looks to get back on track tonight against the Red Sox. While there isn’t a whole lot to like about how Archer has thrown so far this year, his strikeout numbers are still high (30.7K% – 13.50K/9 in 15.1 IP) and provide us with the upside we look for when rostering pitchers. With that said, there is no reason to go out of your way to roster any Red Sox hitters tonight, especially in cash games. If you believe that Archer’s struggles continue tonight, take a look at David Ortiz who is 9-26 with two HR’s lifetime against Archer and makes for a fine GPP target. Otherwise, it would be a wise decision to look elsewhere for hitters in your contests this evening.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: David Ortiz Adonis Garcia scratched, Castro replaced him
Adonis Garcia has been scratched from an Atlanta lineup we had little interest in past Freddie Freeman. He will be replaced by Daniel Castro against Ross Stripling according to David O’Brien, Atlanta beat writer
As reported by: David O'Brien Other tagged players: Daniel Castro Baltimore 155 wRC+, 21.1 HR/FB vs RHP
R.A. Dickey is not your standard RHP and has generated a double digit SwStr% in each of his three starts, but that’s a story for another time because the Orioles are just mauling right now. Matt Wieters doesn’t get to join in on the fun today as he sees the bench. Manny Machado has a reverse platoon split (156 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since last year) and has a 248 wRC+ over the last week. Chris Davis has a 165 wRC+, .360 ISO, 44.8 Hard% vs RHP since last year. Jonathan Schoop (136 wRC+, .267 ISO, 40.4 Hard% vs RHP) might be the sneaky bat here, though there are really no Baltimore bats you’re actively trying to avoid as they project for the highest run total tonight (4.8) via our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, R.A. Dickey Teheran .392 wOBA vs LHBs since last season
The Dodgers run out the same lineup as yesterday against the guy who was supposed to pitch yesterday and hope it turns out better after being shut down by Williams Perez and the bullpen. Julio Teheran has been better at home (3.85 xFIP since last season), but that’s mostly because it’s a big park that can hold a lot of his mistakes (18.5 Hard-Soft% at home since 2015), not because of any great skills he possesses. For some reason he still commands a price tag on the upper part of the board, which we are not interested in at all against a lineup full of tough LH bats. He has a .392 wOBA allowed vs LHBs since last season. Stack ALL of your Dodgers LH bats. All except Utley (84 wRC+ vs RHP) are above average vs righties and he has the prime lineup spot at the top. Possibly include Justin Turner in the middle of it with a reverse platoon split (146 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015).
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Chase Utley, Julio Teheran, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson Brewers stack RHBs vs HR prone Milone, Gennett sits
Tommy Milone has only allowed nine fly balls in two starts (that’s different). Four of them have left the yard (that’s not so much different). There hasn’t been a drastic change in anything he does, so I’d expect him to return to his fly ball ways soon, but he’s now allowed 21 HRs in just under 140 innings since the start of last season. The Brewers are rebuilding with some high power RH bats and this park is not good for Milone. Braun (149 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Santana (156 wRC+, 239 ISO) are the big bats vs LHP since 2015. Villar has a nice lineup spot and a 113 wRC+, .179 ISO vs lefties, while Chris Carter supplies only power (.211 ISO vs LHP). The top five Milwaukee bats should be fairly popular tonight and rightfully so. They are projected for the 3rd highest run total tonight (4.5 runs).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Domingo Santana, Tommy Milone, Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar Zimmerman 0.00 ERA with just 10 swinging strikes
Jordan Zimmermann hasn’t allowed a run in a Detroit uniform yet, but has just 10 swinging strikes through two starts. He continues to generate tons of weak contact though (12.8 Hard%, 84 mph EV). The inability to miss any bats is a concern, especially against a team that has made their reputation on making contact. It’s possible that he’ll continue to induce weak contact and the Royals have struck out a bit more this month (19.6% vs RHP), but there is great concern about paying for this type of skillset. The Royals have possibly the most predictable lineup in baseball (so much for all that rest Sal Perez was going to get). This might be a matchup we want to entirely avoid with Zimmermann neither a pitcher to covet or pick on right now. If you must, Moustakas has a 123 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since last season, while Hosmer and Morales have a matching 139 mark.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Jordan Zimmermann Ryan Howard among early EV, DST leaders, Phils still terrible
Mentioned on the Mets telecast last night several times was that the Phillies do not yet have 10 hits in any single game this season. Their 74 wRC+ and 24.0 Hard% vs RHP tells you why. We know Bartolo Colon’s limitations by now and while we shouldn’t expect him to continue striking out a quarter of the batters he faces, he won’t walk anyone and should be able to dispatch most of this young lineup with relative ease, making him a bargain basement bargain on DraftKings for $5.5K. The interesting names for the Phillies are Odubel Herrera (114 wRC+ vs RHP) and Ryan Howard, who’s bat is showing signs of life this season (270 ft avg DST, 97 mph avg EV according to Baseball Savant). Those marks are 5th and 4th in baseball respectively this month. He has a 113 wRC+, .244 ISO, and 41.6 Hard% vs RHP and is a very legitimate threat to go deep against one of the few fastballs we know he can still catch up to on this Mets staff.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Odubel Herrera Braves have a 4.3 HR/FB, -2.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP
Ross Stripling may have been better in his 2nd start in terms of walks and strikeouts, but still projects as a back of the rotation arm. That could be good enough against the Braves. He’s keeping the ball on the ground (54%) and not allowing a lot of hard contact (0.0 Hard-Soft%) through two starts, which matches up perfectly with Atlanta’s (4.3 HR/FB and -2.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). The price tag is still at a reasonable level, especially on DraftKings ($6.4K) and he has one of the top matchups on the evening. Freddie Freeman is the real threat in his lineup (144 wRC+, .226 ISO, 37.9 Hard% vs RHP since 2015), averaging 250 feet of distance on 29 batted balls this month. Nick Markakis has added a few feet (243 avg) and mph (93.5 avg) to the 39 balls off his bat with a 172 wRC+ over the last week and 129 wRC+ mark against RHP since last year at the top of the lineup tonight. Both are very much in play where not using Stripling as a complementary pitcher.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Ross Stripling Eovaldi avg 97 mph fastball, 93 mph exit velocity
Nathan Eovaldi is averaging 97 mph on his fastball, but it’s coming back at him at an average of 93 mph in exit velocity. He’s allowed four HRs, but has only faced the Blue Jays and Astros, stepping down in class against a decent, but not punishing Oakland lineup, who have struggled against RHP so far (80 wRC+). They do have some batters that hit RHP traditionally well though. In fact, after Burns, the five of the next six have a wRC+ of 119 or better vs RHP since last season. Eovaldi has exhibited some platoon split (.349 wOBA vs LHBs) since last season, but started throwing his splitter much more often, bringing up his K% to league average. He’s one of a few viable mid-range pitching options tonight, but you can also consider three LHBs (Coughlan, Reddick, Vogt) with a 120-135 wRC+ and .200-210 ISO vs RHP over the last year plus with the short porch in RF.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Chris Coghlan, Stephen Vogt Marlins sit 2 RHBs vs Ross's slider and extreme splits
Like his brother, Joe Ross throws 90%+ sinkers and sliders, generating a lot of ground balls and a decent amount of strikeouts. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an extreme platoon split (.193 wOBA vs RHBs, .342 wOBA vs LHBs) early on in his career. The Marlins will counteract that by sitting Martin Prado and Marcell Ozuna, utilizing five LHBs in their top six. This lineup is a slight downgrade for Ross, but it’s not like Ichiro Suzuki in the two spot is anything special at this point in his career. Only five of his 40 batted balls have been classified as Hard this year and in a decent matchup, he seems to be establishing himself as one of the more trustworthy mid-range cost arms. The Marlins do have some pop and you might alternately consider a small contrarian stack here. Christian Yelich (127 wRC+ vs RHP since last year) is coming into his own with a 94.71 exit velocity this season, higher than Stanton (94.19). Justin Bour has a .241 ISO vs RHP since last year. Derek Dietrich may be the undervalued bat here with a 136 wRC+ and .228 ISO vs RHP since the start of last season at a low price.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Ichiro Suzuki, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich