DFS Alerts

Taylor Jungmann could be sneaky SP play today facing Twins

While the game has a high over/under of 8.5 and is being played in hitter-friendly Miller Park, Brewers SP Taylor Jungmann makes for an interesting GPP play today facing a Twins team that is 26th in wOBA against RHP and 22nd in strikeouts. Jungmann struck out 107 in 119 IP last season so the K upside is there.You can still target the high upside bats of Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier from the Twins. Ricky Nolasco takes the mound for the Twins and he comes in with a career wOBA allowed to LH bats of .340 – he’s a little better against RH bats (.314) but still not good enough to want to avoid them completely. The top five of their order (Domingo Santana, Scooter Gennett, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Chris Carter) are all viable options.

Rays-Red Sox game might be lower scoring than expected

Rays SP Jake Odorizzi has upside but struggles a bit on the road (.346 career wOBA allowed but was a bit lower at .317 in 2015). He’s also a reverse-splits pitcher with a career wOBA allowed of .290 to LH bats and .319 to RH bats. This makes the Red Sox bats secondary options today with David Ortiz (.419 wOBA vs RHP), Mookie Betts, and Dustin Pedroia the top options. David Price takes the mound for the Red Sox and while he has given up some runs, he continues to strike out batters (27 K’s this season) and is a great GPP SP option today. That said, there are a couple of Rays we want to look at today as they hit LHP very well and that’s the three guys at the top of their order – Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer, and Evan Longoria. Those three have wOBA’s of .376 and ISO’s of .188 or better against LHP.

If you're fading Kershaw, Scherzer is probably your man

With Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup and pitching in Miami’s huge ball park, Max Scherzer has a great match up today against the Marlins and makes for a great pivot if you’re looking to fade Clayton Kershaw in GPP’s. His team is the second largest favorite of the day and you can avoid any Marlins bats. Tom Koehler pitches for the Marlins – he had a wOBA of over .313 against both sides of the plate last season and is a bit more vulnerable (.332 wOBA) to LH bats which bodes well for Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Harper will be hard to fit in your lineups at his exorbitant price tag so he’s likely a fade but Murphy is certainly in play. If you’re looking for some cheap value options, Matt den Dekker is leading off and is minimum priced on FanDuel. Clint Robinson is similarly priced and batting sixth.

Mariners loading up with lefties against Cody Anderson

Mariners SP Nate Karns has strikeout upside but faces an Indians team that doesn’t strike out as much as people might think (seventh lowest against RHP the last two seasons). He’s definitely worth a shot in your GPP lineups if you are making upwards of 10+ lineups but outside of that scenario there are better options out there. The Indians SP Cody Anderson was hammered in his last outing and doesn’t strike anyone out (12% K rate) – he’s also an easy avoid. Anderson is more vulnerable to LH bats (.324 wOBA in 2015) and the Mariners have noticed that as 8 of their 9 bats will bat from that side of the plate today. Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz (the lone RH bat) and Adam Lind all have wOBAs topping .348 and are your top options. Karns has career wOBA’s of over .316 to both sides of the plate – your top options from the Indians today are Jason Kipnis (.396 wOBA against RHP) and the other three bats (Rajai Davis-Francisco Lindor-Carlos Santana) at the top of the order.

Is Kershaw against the Braves worth the price?

The biggest decision that usually comes with rostering Clayton Kershaw is answering the question “can I afford him?” He is certainly not cheap, priced at $13k on FanDuel and $13.6k on DraftKings and with other pitching options like Max Scherzer (also not cheap), David Price, and Johnny Cueto available on the afternoon slate it’s not like he is the only option out there. A closer look, however, clearly makes him the best option out there. The Dodgers are -270 favorites, a huge number, and on a site like FanDuel that makes him almost certainly a lock for that 12 bonus points for picking up the win. Only Adonis Garcia has a wOBA topping .330 vs LHP in their starting lineup today and he’s been abysmal this season with a .264 wOBA. So yes, Kershaw is worth the price. Fade all the Braves bats. That much is easy to figure out. The harder part will be finding the value to fit in around Kershaw. Some of that value could come from his own team as their opposing pitcher, Matt Wisler, in his limited time in the majors has given up a .413 wOBA to LH bats. The top four in the Dodgers batting order (Chase Utley-Corey Seager-Adrian Gonzalez-Joc Pederson) will all bat from that side of the plate and all are moderately priced options.

The Giants strikeout a league low 14.3% against RHP

Not particularly good news for Zack Greinke, the Giants have done a great job being patient hitters at the plate and putting the ball in play this year. Though a small sample size, Greinke’s K% is down 5% from last year and is allowing a 33.3% Hard Hit Rate early on this season. Even so, the Giants have a low projected run total of just 3.51 tonight – good for the 3rd lowest on the slate. This doesn’t make the SFG lineup very appealing tonight, and it doesn’t help that the game is being played in pitcher friendly AT&T Park. If you want to go contrarian in GPP’s tonight, the Giants 1-5 hitters all boast a wOBA of .358 or higher against RHP, putting them in consideration for a lineup or two.

Pirates stack 8 RHBs against Pomeranz

The Pirates are pulling out all the stops to load up on RHBs tonight, including Jordy Mercer leading off and Francisco Cervelli at 1B. Pomeranz definitely has a large platoon split, but you’ve seen worse than his .336 wOBA vs RHBs. This year, he’s struck out 12 of the 35 RHBs he’s seen with a 52.6 GB% and 15.8 Hard%. His SwStr rate has been above 16.5% in each of his two starts. There might be some value in his low price in a pitcher’s park, even if the matchup is not entirely ideal. Two of those RH bats have really been above average against lefties since the start of last year. Andrew McCutchen (160 wRC+, .198 ISO) has an amazing 274.3 average on all batted balls this season (4th best) and Francisco Cervelli (143 wRC+) is often an under-rated Catcher eligible bat. Starling Marte (100 wRC+ vs LHP) has actually hit RHP better.

LHP Locke has much better numbers against RH hitters than LH

While the Padres are listed as small favorites tonight against LHP Jeff Locke, there aren’t many hitters to get excited about in the San Diego lineup tonight. Locke has better numbers against RH (18.6K% – 3.98 xFIP) than he does against LH (11.8K% – 4.52 xFIP) which slightly downgrades the right handed SDP hitters. Matt Kemp (.377 wOBA – .207 ISO – 132 wRC+ vs LHP in Petco last year) and Derek Norris (.377 wOBA – .173 ISO – 145 wRC+ vs LHP in Petco last year) are the preferred plays for the Padres tonight. Note that Cory Spangenberg is headed to the 15-day DL and that Jemile Weeks, who is not available on DK or FD, will start in his spot and bat 8th.

The late update from Kevin is here and there looks to be very little weather impact upon tonight’s games. A couple of games have a low risk of some showers, but nobody needs to be avoided. Check out the entire late update at our Weather Page linked below.

Bumgarner velocity, SwStr% were up in his last start

Madison Bumgarner was roughed up in his last start, but the underlying numbers suggest some good things going forward. His velocity is still down relative to last year, but according to Fangraphs, he was at least in line with last April for the first time. Additionally, he struck out seven on his best SwStr rate (11%) in three starts. There was still an uncomfortable amount of hard contact and two more HRs, but less than his first two starts. It’s hard to say he’s over his ailments, but it’s not like there’s a clear option at the top tonight, so you might probably lean towards at least some exposure. There’s never comfort in attacking Bumgarner, but Paul Goldschmidt is matchup proof against just about any lefty (189 wRC+, .262 ISO, 46.7 Hard% vs LHP since last year). If you want a sneakier play, Yasmany Tomas bats cleanup tonight with a 132 wRC+, .236 ISO, and 37.1 Hard% vs LHP. His 94.5 mph exit velocity this season leads the team. Arizona has the lowest projected run total (2.99) on the board tonight though.

Nelson has a 2.79 ERA on a .157 BABIP & 90.9 LOB%, just a 5.4 SwStr%

Jimmy Nelson has a 2.79 ERA through three starts, but that’s where the good news ends. Nine of his strikeouts came in one game and he has just a 5.4 SwStr% and was below 5% in two starts. His walk rate is in double digits and he’s sneaking by on a .157 BABIP and 90.9 LOB% so far. He has allowed a HR in every start. Nelson has handled RHBs (.257 wOBA), though two Twins at the top have been strong vs same handed pitching. Nunez (147 wRC+) and Sano (142 wRC+, .245 ISO) have pounded RHP since last season and get a park upgrade tonight. Both also have a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. From the left side he allows .367 wOBA since last season. Joe Mauer (152 wRC+ last seven days) and Oswaldo Arcia (155 wRC+ last seven days) have been hot.

Hamels velocity is down 1.7 MPH from last year

While Hamels has pitched well this season, his velocity has seen a dip of nearly 2 MPH from last year. In addition, his Zone% has dropped from 47% in 2015 to just under 40% in 2016. These are not particularly welcome statistics in Hamels case, showing that he may not continue to be quite the pitcher that he has been in the past. While he still has pitched well this season, he has struggled with his command as shown by his 10.7BB%. Jose Altuve (.413 wOBA – .973 OPS – 166 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) and Carlos Correa (.378 wOBA – .282 ISO – 142 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) are two hitters who crush LHP and serve as excellent plays in any format tonight. With a projected run total of just under 4, the Astro’s are expected to put up some runs and make for an interesting GPP stack given their ability to hit HR’s and score runs in bunchs. Hitters 1-7 make for legitimate GPP options if you are looking to attack Hamels this evening.

Mitch Moreland has a .235 ISO vs RHP since 2015

Maybe the Tigers weren’t so dumb. Doug Fister has been a disaster since leaving except for that first year with the low BABIP. He’s averaging just 85 mph with a 5.9 SwStr% this year. The question now becomes which Rangers to attack him with. Both Fielder and Moreland homered last night, but Moreland is cheaper and has an ISO nearly 80 points higher vs RHP since last season (.235 vs .156). He’s also averaging 14 feet more distances (252 vs 238) this season, though Fielder does have an edge in Hard% 36.6 to 31.5. The rest of the Texas bats are just average, but can be used against this pitcher. Nomar Mazara has just 35 major league PAs, but has crushed it (183 wRC+) from the two hole so far. The Rangers are projected for 4.5 runs tonight, tied for 3rd most.

Padres put Cory Spangenberg on the 15-day DL, select the contract of Jemile Weeks

Spangenberg is dealing with a quad strain and has been placed on the 15-day DL. Jemile Weeks has been recalled in a corresponding move and will get the nod at 2B tonight. He’ll bat 8th in his Padres debut, but isn’t available on most DFS outlets.

Tigers hold a 26.4K% against RHP this year

Ian Kennedy has pitched quite well this season and hopes to continue his success tonight against the Detroit Tigers. He currently holds a 29.2K%, which is nearly 8% higher than his career mark. So while we can’t expect him to sustain his early season strikeout numbers, Kennedy is in a good spot to keep them up tonight as the Tigers hold a 26.4K% against RHP this season. While the Tigers aren’t in a particularly appealing spot against Kennedy tonight, their lineup does feature a few hitters we can consider on this slate. Miguel Cabrera (.408 wOBA – 161 wRC+ vs RHP in 2015) is in a good spot tonight and is hitting in the 3 spot, and Ian Kinsler (.333 wOBA – .194 ISO – 119 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is 8-19 with a HR in his past four games making him a quality option hitting out of the leadoff spot.