DFS Alerts

Half of the Contact Against This Lefty Has a 95 mph EV or Higher

A 4.5 implied run line currently has the Astros tied for the fifth highest total on the board and it might be hard to argue that they’re in one of the top spots on the slate. This is especially true should the roof be open, where Statcast Park Factors suggest an eight percent increase in run scoring environment. In addition, they’re facing a lefty with a wide platoon split since last season (RHBs .358 wOBA, .367 xwOBA). Since competing four innings in his first start, Taylor Hearn hasn’t done so since, allowing eight runs over his next 6.1 innings. He’s struck out 14 of 58, but with just a 9.3 BB%, while also walking six. The contact profile is disastrous. He’s allowed 16.7% Barrels/BBE behind a 92.7 mph EV and exactly half his contact at least 95 mph off the bat. He has a 7.59 ERA despite only two of his six barrels leaving the yard. Omitting Martin Maldonado, in the lineup strictly for his defense, the remaining five right-handed batters in the projected Houston offense all exceed a 110 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Yuli Gurriel (152 wRC+), Aledmys Diaz (120 wRC+) and Chas McCormick (129 wRC+) have all punished them above a .200 ISO as well. McCormick is currently projected to leadoff and is within $300 of $2.5K on either site.

Value Bats in Top Offense That Crushes LHP

Should you be paying up for pitching tonight and foregoing Dodger bats, there are currently four teams, two on each site with multiple top 10 point per dollar projected hitters (PlateIQ). On DraftKings, we find a couple of Royals (3.77 implied runs) and Twins (3.74) against Dallas Keuchel and Eduardo Rodriguez, respectively. After striking out five of 21 Mariners in his first start, Dallas Keuchel didn’t strike out any of the 17 Guardians he faced in his most recent one with 10 of them crossing the plate. He’s still good for the ground balls (59.4%), but not much else. Keuchel hasn’t reached an 11 K-BB% since 2017. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against him since last year. Edward Olivares hasn’t had many opportunities, but is currently projected to bat second with a minimum price tag on either site with a top five projected point per dollar value. Carlos Santana (96 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021) costs just $2.5K on DK. Eduardo Rodriquez has struggled early on. Opponents have drilled him for a 93.5 mph EV (9.3% Barrels/BBE) with just a 31 GB%. RHBs own a .333 wOBA (but just .292 xwOBA) against him since last year, but Kyle Garlick has smashed LHP over that same span (138 wRC+, .318 ISO) and costs the minimum on DK, while Miguel Sano (91 wRC+, .115 ISO) isn’t much more.

RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within a point of .385 against Daniel Lynch since he entered the league and if there’s one thing the White Sox (4.73) are extremely proficient at, it’s smashing LHP. Both Yasmani Grandal (174 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Adam Engel (90 wRC+, .184 ISO) cost less than $2.5K on FD, where they’re top projected values. Luis Robert (222 wRC+, .392 ISO), Jose Abreu (154 wRC+, .299 ISO) and Andrew Vaughn (165 wRC+, .292 ISO) are a bit more expensive, but have crushed LHP too. Projections also like the FD price tags on a couple of Marlins (3.89) in Washington. Josiah Gray’s strikeout rate is up (31%), but his swinging strike rate is down (10.4%) with a high mark of 11.3% in his first start. His velocity is down over a mile per hour and he’s generated just 22.6% of his contact on the ground with a 90.9 mph EV. Just two of four barrels (12.5%) have left the yard, while he’s also walked seven of 58 batters. Batters of either side of the plate are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him since being called up last year. The projections like Jorge Soler (88 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Jesus Aguilar (106 wRC+, .181 ISO), both within $100 of $2.5K. Jesus Sanchez (142 wRC+, .269 ISO) has been the star of this lineup against RHP though.

A 95.2 mph EV and 28.6 GB% Has Lead to 17.9% Barrels/BBE

Both sites have cut out the early evening games tonight and feature an 11 game slate with the Dodgers (at D’Backs) clearly at the top (5.59), the only offense above five implied runs at this point. The Yankees (vs O’s), White Sox (vs Royals) and Blue Jays (vs Red Sox) are the only other teams above four and a half runs on a board that features several domes and lots of cool weather. Three of the top four overall projected point totals for hitters tonight belong to Dodgers against Zach Davies (batters from either side of the plate above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last season). Cody Bellinger is the only batters in the projected lineup below a 107 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but seems to have found himself and has a 149 wRC+ in 2022 overall. Mookie Betts (131 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since LY), Freddie Freeman (151 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .166 ISO) are those top projected bats with Max Muncy (132 wRC+, .269 ISO) not too far behind. Expect Dodgers bats to be quite popular tonight despite the high price tags as players may choose to go with bats over high priced pitching, considering how far ahead of the rest of the slate the Dodgers are.

Only two other teams feature multiple hitters among the top 10 overall projected point totals (PlateIQ). Shohei Ohtani (146 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Mike Trout (232 wRC+, .425 ISO) seem to rent space here no matter who they’re facing. Tonight, it’s Triston McKenzie, who has displayed some control problems early on again (though nowhere near as severe as last year). He can miss bats, but is also prone to barrels occasionally. He’s only allowed one barrel (3.8%) so far, which stayed in the yard, but has averaged a 90 mph EV with just a 37.5 GB%. He also hasn’t been fully stretched out yet, so the Angels should see a lot of the Cleveland bullpen, which has been fairly mediocre so far (4.00 FIP, but 3.05 SIERA).

Vladimir Guerrero (173 wRC+, .203 ISO) and George Springer (135 wRC+, .283 ISO) have top 10 projections against Nick Pivetta, who has allowed more than a run per innings with just 10 strikeouts and nine walks (1.7 K-BB%). He also owns an astonishing 95.2 mph EV with just a 25.6 GB%. Four of his seven barrels (17.9%) have left the yard. Pivetta does have a bit of a split and the Blue Jays are predominantly right-handed, but same-handed batters still own a healthy .317 wOBA against him since last season. In a protected, somewhat neutral environment, the Jays should be a safe bet tonight with Zack Collins (114 wRC+, .18O ISO) potentially the value bat, within $300 of $3K on either site.

Bottom of the Board Pitchers Could Hold Some Value

Covering the bottom of the board ($7K or less) for those who might looking for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings specifically… Chris Paddack has not walked any of the 39 batters he’s faced, nor has he allowed a home run with exactly half his contact on the ground and just one barrel against him. His 11.8 SwStr% is right on his career rate (11.3%) too, but he’s struck out just seven of 39 (17.9%). The velocity was down significantly in his first start under difficult weather conditions, but bumped back up to 94 mph last time out. He may be a bit too cheap against the Tigers (89 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP) and does projected as a top three point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on either site tonight.

It was very plain for everyone to see that Eduardo Rodriguez pitched better than his 4.74 ERA last year. His estimators were more than a run lower and the Tigers rewarded him handsomely based on those. Unfortunately, those estimators have adjusted to meet last year’s ERA. E-Rod has just a 9.9 K-BB% and 7.5 SwStr% through three starts. The contact profile isn’t any sexier. Opponents have drilled him for a 93.5 mph EV (9.3% Barrels/BBE) with just a 31 GB%. The odd thing is that his BABIP is actually down 95 points from last season. He currently projects as the top point per dollar value on either site. The Twins have been perfectly average against LHP (98 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 14.4 HR/FB).

Much like last year, half of Marcus Stroman’s contact has been on the ground, which is actually a bit low for him traditionally, but unlike last year, he’s allowed 14 runs over his first three starts. It took him eight starts to allow that many last year. The strikeouts have been there (22.7%), despite just a 7.7 SwStr% and he’s walked 9.7%. You may want to say the .333 BABIP and 30 HR/FB are bound for some serious regression, as he’s allowed more home runs (three) than barrels (two), but opposing batters also have averaged 93.1 mph of exit velocity on contact. He’s in one of the tougher parks (Atlanta) against one of the better offenses (100 wRC+ vs RHP), but there is some upside here (24.6 K% vs RHP) and $5.9K on DK may be too cheap.

Plenty of Mid-Range Upside On a Strong Pitching Board

There are plenty of viable pitching options on tonight’s 11 game slate. The two most expensive arms have shot out of the gate throwing absolute fire, but there are also a number of mid-range arms that project fairly well and/or have quite a bit of upside in their matchups tonight. After 88 pitches in his third outing, Luis Severino should now be fully stretched out. The strikeouts haven’t entirely been there (25%, 12.7 SwStr%), but the pre-injury velocity is, along with exceptional contact management so far (54.1 GB%, 83.6 mph EV). There are some weather concerns in New York tonight, but you can’t argue with the matchup. The O’s have an 84 wRC+ and 24.9 K% vs RHP this year. Severino owns a top three overall projection on either site currently (PlateIQ), but is currently projected for four times the ownership on DK vs FD.

The underlying metrics looked quite a bit better than Max Fried’s results through two starts and he justified that optimism by two hitting the Dodgers over seven innings without a walk and eight strikeouts last time out. He’s walked just a single batter so far (22.5 K-BB%) with 52.9% of his contact on the ground, 25% of his fly balls as popups, an 84.6 mph EV and 3.8% Barrels/BBE. His SIERA (2.46) is more than a run below his 3.50 ERA. The Cubs have a 25.2 K% vs LHP early on, but have also been a fairly patient team (9.8 BB% vs LHP, 10.6% last seven days). Fried is currently projects for the second highest point total on either site, but is expected to be fairly popular around the $9K mark and probably has a higher floor than ceiling.

Sandy Alcantara is within $100 of $9.5K on either site. He has been his usual workhorse self, completing three full trips through the order in two straight starts, which gives him a fairly high floor. The strikeout rate (19.7%) is down through 19.1 innings, but the 12.3 SwStr% is healthy enough that we should expect more going forward. With 49% of his contact on the ground and 86 mph EV, Alcantara has allowed just two barrels (3.8%) and one home run so far. The Nationals have a 95 wRC+, but just a 21.6 K% vs RHP and Alcantara sits just inside the top seven overall in terms of projected point total with very low projected ownership, which makes him another great GPP play.

Tony Gonsolin is within $200 of $8K on either site. He’s struck out just eight of 53 batters with seven walks, which equates to a 1.9 K-BB%. The good news is that he’s had at least a 14.5 SwStr% in all three starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and an 86.8 mph EV. The issue remains the same as last year: walks. There may be some workload issues here, but the D’Backs have a 79 wRC+ and 25 K% vs RHP. He’s a longer shot GPP arm.

A 20.7 SwStr% & 60.3 O-Swing% in Three Starts for New Team

Tonight’s top two pitchers have come out of the gate on absolute fire to start the 2022 season with both new teams and leagues. Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight, while Kevin Gausman does so on DraftKings only. Might as well include Chris Bassitt as well, as he is within $200 of $10K on either site. Rodon has done everything he can through three starts to prove that the first half of last season was no fluke. He simply has a 44.6 K% (16.8 SwStr%) and has allowed just a single barrel (3.4%) behind an 84.6 mph EV. Four of his 16 fly balls have been popups. Rodon’s worst estimator is a 2.84 DRA with no other estimator within even half a run. Considering the A’s are basically running out a AAA lineup at this point (72 wRC+ last seven days), Rodon is the clear top overall projected pitcher (PlateIQ), a top five overall projected value on either site tonight, but is also projected to be the most popular arm and in over one-quarter of lineups tonight on either site.

Gausman has a 30.1 K% through three starts that still doesn’t do his 20.7 SwStr% justice and he’s been above 18% in every start. His slider and split finger, which combine for about half his offerings, both have a whiff rate above 45%. Overall, he owns an outrageous 60.3 O-Swing%. To put that into context, league average is currently 31.2%. He has neither walked anyone yet, nor allowed a home run on just two barrels (3.8%). Kind of hard to walk anyone when they’re swinging at more than half the pitches out of the strike zone. For some reason, DRA hates him (3.66), but his next highest estimator is 3.03 xERA, which still may not be doing him justice. Gausman projects well on either site, but not directly below Rodon, though these numbers are fluid and can change before game time. However, if we suspect his ownership is going to be much lower than Rodon, he makes for a great GPP play against a struggling offense (Red Sox 50 wRC+ last seven days).

Bassitt had a rough first inning last time out in which the Giants put a three spot on the board, but that represents half the runs he’s allowed over three starts. He settled down from there and has pitched exactly six innings with at least six strikeouts in all three starts with just four total walks. In addition to the 22.9 K-BB%, Bassitt has a 45.6 GB% and 17.6 IFFB% with just an 83.5 mph EV. His 3.00 ERA is within a quarter run of all his estimators. In his favor is a great park in St Louis against an offense that struggles against RHP (92 wRC+) with a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side of the plate are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against Bassitt since last season. Bassitt doesn’t have the upside of the other two, but generally has a pretty high floor and will pitch deep into games.

Weakness Against LHB Could Create Strong Leverage Situation

Stacking projections on DraftKings expect to see a lot of the top three teams by implied run total (Phillies, Dodgers and Astros) in that order with the Red Sox the only other team currently reaching double digit ownership expectations on a seven game slate. With four fewer teams on FanDuel and some major pricing differences, the Astros ahead of the Dodgers and no other team even close. Smash potential simulations are in line with team run totals as well. Houston is the top projected value by a mile on FanDuel, where they currently have a number twice any other team. On DraftKings, Houston stacks still project for solid value, though both the Brewers and Red Sox are currently ahead of them.

Getting into the stuff that wins GPPs, Leverage, we find the Cardinals with the only projection over five percent on FanDuel, but a full on stack against Max Scherzer in a negative run environment, even on a five game slate, seems like shear lunacy, though he has become prone to more hard contact in his later years. The Cardinals have few LHBs and RHBs are still below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Scherzer since last season. The Mets currently have the second best Leverage% projection on FD and that makes some more sense. A 27.2 K% for Miles Mikolas over his last two starts is a complete fabrication with just an 8.5 SwStr%. The Mets have a deep and balances lineup with only Robinson Cano and James McCann below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since the start of last season, among projected starters. LHBs have a .301 wOBA, but .327 xwOBA in 13 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA.

DraftKings is a bit more interesting, where the Cardinals are a bit behind the Rockies in terms of Leverage%. After striking out 16 of his first 43 batters with a 19.1 SwStr% against the A’s and Marlins, Kyle Gibson struck out just three of 26 at Coors with an 11.1 SwStr%. He’s getting nearly double the rate of swings and misses on his sinker and changeup from last year and nothing really looks different about them, so perhaps we can chalk this up to young hitter over-aggression early in the season. All estimators are currently more than half a run below his 3.57 ERA (66.3 LOB%). His low price tag likely means he’ll be rostered in a lot of lineups, but LHBs own a .321 wOBA against him since last year. Among the four LHBs in the Colorado projected lineup, only Ryan McMahon is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season, but only Charlie Blackmon is below a .200 ISO and he’s off to a hot start this season (126 wRC+ overall). The Diamondbacks are currently third by Leverage% and Walker Buehler has struggled with a 4.02 ERA that’s well below estimators, most extremely a 5.66 xERA (11.8% Barrels/BBE), but batters from either side of the plate are still below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA since last season and there Seth Beer is the only batter in the projected Arizona lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. Daulton Varsho (100 wRC+, .211 ISO) is right there though.

The Top of the Board Offense That Includes Great Value Bats

The Houston Astros sit somewhat alone at third highest team run total tonight, right around four and a half against Dane Dunning in Texas. He’s going to keep it on the ground over half the time (51.3%), though half of his eight fly balls have been barrels and one-quarter of them have left the yard so far. He struck out 22.3% of batters last year and is right there again this year (23%), but with just a 7.9 SwStr% and 11.5 BB%. With his fastball sitting below 90 mph this year, the ground ball rate might be the only thing working against the Astros tonight. Houston bats project well, though not at the very top of the board overall. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Dunning since last year, so we certainly like someone like Jeremy Pena (163 wRC+, .325 ISO vs RHP) in the leadoff spot ($2.9K on FD), along with Michael Brantley (159 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP since 2021) at $3.5K or less on either site, as great potential values. As a matter of fact, six of the top 11 projected point per dollar values on FanDuel are Houston bats, including Pena, Brantley and Kyle Tucker (143 wRC+, .327 ISO), who still somehow costs less than $3K. Yordan Alvarez (140 wRC+, .266 ISO) is the most expensive piece of this puzzle.

Addtionally interesting low cost bats, who project decently from a point per dollar value and should find themselves in the middle of their teams’ lineup tonight include Franmil Reyes (115 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since LY) against Michael Lorenzen. RHBs are below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, but Reyes costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Alex Verdugo (139 wRC+, .188 ISO) costs just $3.3K on DK and Jose Berrios has traditionally struggled with LHBs (.351 wOBA, .350 xwOBA since LY).

Low Ownership Projections for Some Top Bats

It’s not rare to see Shohei Ohtani (148 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since 2021) atop the overall projections (PlateIQ), even against Shane Bieber, but it is rare to not see Mike Trout (.234 wRC+, .422 ISO) right there with him. That is because Bieber has a very large platoon split (LHBs .319 wOBA since LY, RHBs .245). That’s not to say Trout projects poorly because he never does. He’s also projected for the lowest ownership among top ten projected bats, which makes him much more interesting tonight.

No team on either a five (FD) or seven (DK) game slate eclipse five implied runs tonight with the Dodgers (at Merrill Kelly) and Phillies (vs Kyle Freeland) just below that, as the only two offenses firmly above four and a half runs. Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .165 ISO) own top three projected point totals on either site, as Merrill Kelly owns a reverse split since last year (RHBs .342 wOBA, LHBs .284), though this is not confirmed by Statcast (RHBs .315 xwOBA, LHBs .327). Freddie Freeman (151 wRC+, .214 ISO) also projects very well and you might as well add Max Muncy (131 wRC+, .268 ISO) to stacks, if affordable. Cody Bellinger (76 wRC+, .188 ISO) homered twice on Sunday and is now up to a 165 wRC+ overall this season with a cost still below $3.5K on either site. Freeman is currently projected below 10% ownership on FanDuel.

Phillies bats own four spots among the top eight projected point totals on DraftKings (they’re not available on FanDuel). Bryce Harper might be the most interesting name in the lineup tonight. He’s been DHing a bit with an elbow issue, but still has a 107 wRC+ this season and a 119 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP since last season. LHBs have a .346 wOBA against Freeland (though .296 xwOBA) since last season and while Harper owns the highest projected point total in the lineup, he’s currently expected to the lowest ownership in a lefty on lefty matchup. Remember that ownership projections are fluid throughout the day though. Make sure to check back before lock. Rhys Hoskins (149 wRC+, .336 ISO), Nick Castellanos (146 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Jean Segura (136 wRC+, .197 ISO) are the remaining projected top bats.

A Trio of Struggling Workhorses That Could Provide Some Value

This slate is loaded with pitchers who have traditionally been workhorses, but have not been this season, due to both the shorter spring ramp up and early performance issues. As such, many of these pitchers are priced below $10K on FD or even $9K on DK tonight. Framber Valdez, Jose Berrios and Walker Buehler are all pitchers we generally expect to get six or even seven innings out of, a rarity in this day and age. Valdez has generated less than two-thirds of his contact on the ground just once over his last 11 starts and has been above 73% in all three this year. He has not allowed a home run, nor even a barrel yet. That’s where the good news ends because he’s struck out (12) only two more than he’s walked (10), generating just a 3.3 K-BB%. He’s failed to compete five innings in any of his last two starts with the 84 pitches he threw in his first start still standing as his season high. He’s thrown a first pitch strike in just over half his battles this season (51.6%), which is a pretty awful number. He is currently a top five projected pitcher on DraftKings in Texas (PlateIQ), but with very low ownership expectations, which could make him a great GPP play if he could rediscover the strike zone.

After two disastrous starts (vs Tex, at NYY), Berrios finally got on track in Boston last time out (6 IP – 28 BF – 1 R – 1 BB – 6 K), though his 93.7 mph EV in that game was still his lowest mark of the season. With an average 94.1 mph EV, he’s already allowed seven barrels (17.5%) with good fortune that just three of them have left the yard. He has just five more ground balls than barrels and had just a 7.3 SwStr% against Boston. His four-seamer and sinker both still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .500. There are still some concerns here and seeing the same lineup for a second consecutive start generally favors the offense. That said, Berrios owns a top three projection on FanDuel with a very moderate ownership projection against an offense with an 80 wRC+ vs RHP. Berrios costs an absurd $5.5K on DraftKings. He’s currently projected to be the top point per dollar value on either site, costing less than $8K on FanDuel as well.

Buehler hasn’t completed six innings yet with just a 16.2 K% (but 12.2 SwStr%) and a 4.02 ERA that’s a half run below his estimators. Add in the contact profile and Statcast spits out a 5.66 xERA. He hit 98 pitches in his second start, but was pulled before 80 in each of his other two. He’s also dropped about a mile per hour in velocity each of the last two seasons now and for a guy who throws his fastball (four-seam, cutter, sinker) two-thirds of the time, that’s potentially problematic, though pitchers have done more with less and it’s been written that he’s constantly tinkering, so we’ll see how he adjusts. Last season started a bit less than ideally as well and he is in a very favorable spot in Arizona last night (75 wRC+ at home), against a lineup that should have a lot of strikeouts in it. Buehler is only a top five projected pitcher on FD currently.

Kyle Gibson’s getting nearly double the rate of swings and misses on his sinker and changeup from last year and nothing really looks different about them, so perhaps we can chalk this up to young hitter over-aggression early in the season. More expectedly, half his contact has been on the ground. All estimators are currently more than half a run below his 3.57 ERA (66.3 LOB%). He faces the Rockies (106 wRC+ on the road so far) in a hitter friendly park, but it’s not Coors. He projects as the second best DK value, the only site he’s available on. Nathan Eovaldi is the second best projected value on FD. He didn’t allow his fifth home run until July in 2021. This year, it took him just three starts. The good news is a 24.6 K-BB%. The bad, obviously, is in the contact profile. A 33.3 HR/FB pace won’t sustain, but a 92.8 mph EV and 14.3% Barrels/BBE are far off from his contact management last year (88 mph EV). An xERA of 4.58 is two runs above his SIERA (2.56) so far with his ERA (3.68) sitting in the middle. He was unable to complete five innings despite 95 pitches against these Blue Jays last time out, although he only allowed a solo home run. Michael Lorenzen is the only pitcher outside Sam Long today with fewer than three. After striking out seven of 20 Marlins over six dominant innings (two hits, one run), it went a bit more roughly in Houston, where he struck out just two of 17 Astros with as many walks and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning. A 56 GB% is impressive and 11.3 SwStr% more than competent, but we’ll see how he continues to fare with reduced velocity (about a mile and a half so far) in a starting role. He does cost just $6.3K on DK against the Guardians tonight.

No Shortage of Top Pitchers Despite Small Slate

The FanDuel main slate stands at just five games tonight, while DraftKings will start an hour earlier and include all seven, which means there probably won’t be full lineup disclosure at lock with two west coast games. Four of seven parks have dome capabilities and there are no weather issues expected in the other three. This slate is loaded with pitchers who have traditionally been workhorses, but have not been this season, due to both the shorter spring ramp up and early performance issues. Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher to reach $10K on DraftKings and does not on FanDuel only because he’s not available on that site tonight. He owns the top overall point projection on DK currently (PlateIQ projections). After a rough first outing at Wrigley, Burnes has simply struck out 18 of his last 50 batters with a single walk and two solo home runs the only damage against him over 14 innings. The 3.61 FIP is about a run above most other estimators and 45.5% of his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat, while the 24.4 K-BB% is actually two points below his career rate. He’s just fine, even if his velocity is down about a mile per hour from last year. There may be some strikeout prone bats at the top of this San Francisco lineup, which is not to say they are not still very dangerous (112 wRC+ vs RHP this year).

Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber are the two $10K pitchers on FanDuel tonight and the only two remaining pitchers above $9K on DraftKings. Scherzer has been fortunate that just one of five barrels (13.2%) has left the yard and he’s walked seven of 69 batters. That said, he’s also struck out exactly one-third of them and only 28.9% of his contact has been at or above a 95 mph EV. His 2.50 ERA is only a bit below estimators that range only as high as a 3.16 xFIP and DRA. St Louis is a power suppressing park and likely the second most negative run environment on the slate behind Seattle. The Cardinal lineup likely won’t have a ton of strikeouts in it, but they have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and 77 wRC+ over the last seven days. Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on FanDuel and just behind Burnes on DK. He’s currently projected to be the most popular on both.

Diminished velocity be damned. Bieber is down over two miles per hour via Statcast, but still living large with a 22.4 K-BB% and 13.9 SwStr% through three starts. That being said, none of his four barrels (10.3%) have left the yard and an 89.3 mph EV so far would be tied for the lowest he’s ever generated. Maybe the shortened 2020 season was a very short peak by a large margin, but the worst of his estimators is still just a 3.13 DRA so far. The Angels have some very dangerous hitters when they’re fully healthy, but also a ton of strikeouts in the projected lineup. Bieber is the next best projected pitcher after Scherzer on either site, but with much reduced ownership considering the size of the slate, at least in comparison to Burners and Scherzer, which makes him a great GPP option.

Brandon Marsh (illness) scratched Sunday

Brandon Marsh (illness) scratched Sunday

As reported by: Sam Blum via Twitter

The start of Pirates-Cubs will be delayed due to rain Sunday

Game update: The start of Pirates-Cubs will be delayed due to rain Sunday

As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter

Josh VanMeter (illness) scratched Saturday

Josh VanMeter (illness) scratched Saturday

As reported by: Jason Mackey via Twitter

Gary Sanchez (undisclosed) scratched Friday

Gary Sanchez (undisclosed) scratched Friday

As reported by: Dan Hayes via Twitter