DFS Alerts

Former Cy Young Winner Among Friday's Top Projected Arms

Considering that the top of the board has lots of question marks, it would certainly be reasonable for players to consider dropping down for their pitching needs tonight. The first thing that jumps out is that PlateIQ projections currently have Corey Kluber and Ranger Suarez as top three overall pitchers on FanDuel and top four on DraftKings. The latter is projected to be very popular on DK for $8K, but they both otherwise project for five percent ownership or less. Kluber has effectively struck out nine of 39 batters and while he walked four in his first start, he didn’t walk any last time out. One of his two barrels (7.7%) has left the yard. He actually threw fewer pitches in his second start (75) than in his first (87). He’s shown some glimpses, but has been the pitcher he was in Cleveland since leaving that team. The Red Sox have just an 84 wRC+ and 22.4 K% vs RHP so far and Tampa Bay is a pitcher’s park.

Especially compared to last season, Suarez’s first two efforts of 2022 have been a disappointment. He’s walked four of 38 with just six strikeouts (5.7 SwStr%). Only one of his three barrels (10.3%) has left the yard with the contact profile being otherwise favorable (86.4 mph EV, 64.3 GB%). The whiff rate on his changeup (20%) has been cut in half, but he’s only thrown 30 so far. The Brewers have an early 50 wRC+ vs LHP and if Suarez turns back into last year’s version, he would be a bargain. In fact, he’s the third best projected value on FanDuel, behind two lower priced rookie pitchers who have really struggled thus far.

Bailey Ober opened eyes with a 20.3 K-BB% over 20 major league starts last season, although he did allow 20 home runs in just 92.1 innings. While he’s allowed just one over his first 11 this season, that comes with just seven strikeouts (15.9%), a 17.6 GB% and 92 mph EV. He’s been extremely fortunate that just one of his six barrels (17.6%) has left the yard. The good news is that a 14.8 SwStr% suggests or even demands a spike in his early season strikeout rate. He’s an upside arm against a White Sox lineup with just a 61 wRC+ vs RHP so far, but is projected to be the third most popular pitcher on FanDuel right now. Michael Wacha has allowed just a single run over 9.1 innings for the Red Sox, while striking out nine of 35 with four walks and a single barrel allowed (4.8%). The only appeal here is a pitcher’s park and a ton of strikeouts in the Tampa Bay lineup. Tarik Skubal struggled in his first start, but struck out seven of 22 Royals without a walk last time out and still hasn’t allowed a home run (35 last year). He has, however, allowed three barrels (9.7%) with an average 91 mph EV. Skubal has also generated 51.6% of his contact on the ground so far, as it seems he’s throwing his sinker a bit more, but it’s only a five point increase (17.8%) through two starts. His largest problem is not opposition (Rockies), but a potential weather interruption.

Could This Be the Breakout One Team Has Waited Years For?

The largest slate night slate of the season so far offers 13 games on Friday, though Justin Verlander is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites, where he is $10.5K. Like he never left, Verlander has struck out 15 of 47 batters, most recently with eight shutout innings of three-hit ball in Seattle. If he has a flaw, it’s that he’s become a bit home run prone in recent seasons, but solo home runs are about all he gives up, accounting for approximately half his runs allowed since going to Houston. Projected for the top overall point total by three points (PlateIQ) on either site, Verlander is also expected to be the most popular pitcher on the board and significantly so on FanDuel. It’s not an easy matchup. Each of the first five in the projected Toronto lineup exceed a .325 wOBA vs RHP since last season with only two in the entire lineup above a 21.8 K% vs RHP.

Julio Urias is $10.1K on DraftKings, but $300 less on FanDuel. However, he is not even a top five overall projected arm and a recommended fade in all except large field GPPs. After failing to strike out any of the 16 Rockies he faced at Coors with two walks in his first start, Urias struck out five of 15 Reds over five one-hit innings the next time out. Considering Cincinnati’s lack of accomplishment against all pitchers this season, that doesn’t seem too impressive. While still two miles per hour below last year (94.7 mph), his velocity was up nearly a mile per hour (92.3) from his first start (91.4). This is still a bit of a concern though. Manny Machado is the only batter in the projected San Diego lineup above a .200 ISO vs LHP since last season.

Kyle Wright is the only other pitcher on the slate to reach the $9K point on both sites and while that sounds a bit shocking, he’s been dominant through two starts this year. He’s struck out 15 of 42 batters (13.7 SwStr%) with just a single walk and hasn’t allowed a barrel yet. Wright seems to have cut down on his slider for more changeups and curveballs against the Reds and Padres. It’s hard to believe he’s still only thrown 81 innings of major league baseball. The Marlins are not a bad lineup against LHP, but there should be some strikeouts here for Wright, who shows up somewhere in the middle of the board in terms of overall projected point total. With projected ownership rates below five percent on either site, he could be a great GPP choice.

Brad Keller, Freddy Peralta and Michael Kopech eclipse a $9K price tag on FanDuel, but are all in the $8K range on DraftKings. Keller has reshaped and improved his changeup as more of a platoon busting weapon against RHPs. He’s struck out 10 of 45 overall with three walks and exactly half his contact on the ground. Just one of his three barrels (9.4%) has left the yard though. He allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE with just a 9.1 K-BB% last year that was actually a career high. He pitches in a favorable park in Seattle. Peralta has had some control issues reform through two starts, walking six of 37 batters, failing to record a fifth inning out in either of his two starts. His ability to miss bats has not waned though (27 K%, 14.5 SwStr%) and while one of four fly balls has left the yard, it’s the only barrel he’s allowed so far (5%). Peralta has yet to drop his walk rate below 9.6% in any season and Philadelphia seems a park downgrade. Kopech struck out eight of 34, but also walked four with just 23.8% of his contact on the ground and a 90.1 mph EV so far. He faces a tough lineup in Minnesota and also still doesn’t seem entirely stretched out after spending almost all of last season in the bullpen. Current projections don’t like Keller very much, especially on DraftKings, where Peralta owns the second highest projected point total and ownership rate.

Pirates-Cubs will start at 8:05pm ET due to forecasted rain Friday afternoon

Game Update: Pirates-Cubs will start at 8:05pm ET due to forecasted rain Friday afternoon

LHBs .349 wOBA vs Pitcher In Potential Top Leverage Spot

On just a five game DraftKings slate, early ownership projections suggest that the top two projected offenses, the Twins and Blue Jays, are likely to be immensely popular, to no surprise. The Royals (vs Chris Paddack), Diamondbacks (at Washington & Erick Fedde) and Mariners (vs Dane Dunning) also break double digit stack ownership projections. Arizona is the only real surprise here. Perhaps this is because Ketel Marte (106 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) is the only projected starter above $4K on DK. Despite Fedde’s recent improvements into at least a competent back end arm, batters from either side of the plate still eclipse a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. With five additional games on FanDuel, no team overwhelms ownership projections with the Blue Jays and Twins the only ones in double digits.

The surprise is in the Smash% colum today. True, there are just five games on DraftKings, but the Royals smashed the slate in 11.9% of simulations, more than any team except the Blue Jays. Keep in mind that these numbers can change throughout the day, but this is iinteresting, since they carry just a modest 4.28 implied run line. On FanDuel, the Yankees (4.23 implied runs) are the only team to break into a double digit Smash% in Detroit, against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has really struggled early. RHBs have a .337 wOBA, but just .291 xwOBA against him since last season. The Twins are the overwhelming top projected Value on DraftKings and also currently slightly ahead of Oakland for the top spot on FanDuel.

If you are looking for something that is going to hit more often than not, the rest of this may not be for you, but if you are hoping to find the best way to differentiate from most of the player pool and potentially win a GPP, then Leverage is what you’re looking for. We can easily see that the Twins are the obvious negative Leverage situation against Daniel Lynch on DK. The highest combined Leverage is in New York against the top two priced pitchers on the slate, Carlos Rodon and Chris Bassitt and then Texas against the third highest priced pitcher, Logan Gilbert. This makes sense because people generally won’t attack the top pitchers, especially if they’re going to have them in many of their lineups. An interesting spot pops up in Boston though. Jose Berrios has really struggled through two starts (5 Ks & BBs, 3 HRs, 25% Barrels/BBE, 94.5 mph EV). He’s thrown three pitches at least 30 times this season and none have a wOBA or xwOBA below .485. Additionally, LHBs own a .349 wOBA (.348 xwOBA) against him since last year. Rafael Devers (150 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is already the top overall projected bat on the board (PlateIQ), but make sure to include Alex Verdugo (142 wRC+, .194 ISO) in stacks as well.

On FanDuel, the early top Leverage projection belongs to the Cardinals in Miami. Sandy Alcantara has just nine strikeouts to six walks through two starts (48 BF), while St Louis has a 108 wRC+ both over the last seven days and against RHP so far this year. This is certainly a tough spot in a pitcher’s park (otherwise more people would be expected to be on it), but LHBs do own a league average .310 xwOBA against Alcantara since last season. Unfortunately, the Cardinals are predominantly right-handed, but Dylan Carlson (99 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (102 wRC+, .137 ISO) both cost less than $3K, while their top RHBs like Tyler O’Neill have smashed RHP (136 wRC+, .254 ISO).

RHBs Own a .392 wOBA Against This Pitcher

Whether you’re talking about the now five game DraftKings slate or the 10 game FanDuel one, no single team reaches a five run team total tonight. The Twins (4.72) and Blue Jays (4.63) are the only teams above even four and a half. Both teams are available on both slates. As you might imagine, PlateIQ projections have several Twins and Blue Jays populating the top of the board in terms of overall point totals. Carlos Correa (138 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021) is a top three overall projected bat on either site, while Jorge Polanco (112 wRC+, .217 ISO) cracks the top five over on DraftKings. Second year pitcher Daniel Lynch has failed to live up to his prospect hype yet. RHBs own a .392 wOBA and .389 xwOBA against him. Kyle Garlick (136 wRC+, .328 ISO) is the stone cold minimum on either site and easily the top projected value, although Gio Urshela (118 wRC+, .176 ISO) is just $2.2K on DK as well. As a matter of fact, seven of the top eight projected values on DraftKings are Twins, while the other two of the top nine are Royals (Bobby Witt Jr. & Michael A. Taylor).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (173 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since LY) and George Springer (132 wRC+, .284 ISO) own top five overall projections on either site. Over 24 batted balls, Nick Pivetta has allowed a 98.7 mph average exit velocity, which seems like it should be impossible. One-quarter of his contact has been barreled, though only half of those (three) have left the yard. He’s also walked five of 35 batters with just six strikeouts. His velocity is down a full two miles per hour. You’re not going to find a lot of Blue Jays atop the point per value projections, but Zack Collins (118 wRC+, .176 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site.

Interestingly, the top overall hitter projection on DraftKings belongs to a batter on the other side of the game at Fenway. Rafael Devers (150 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP since LY). Through two starts, he’s struck out as many as he’s walked (five). He’s allowed three home runs and a barrel on exactly one-quarter of his batted balls (94.5 mph EV). He’s thrown three pitches at least 30 times this season and none have a wOBA or xwOBA below .485. In addition, LHBs own a .349 wOBA and .348 xwOBA against him since last year. A 4.37 implied run line would put Boston sixth on the board on FanDuel, but third on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Mike Trout (219 wRC+, .396 ISO) owns the top overall projection against Jake Odorizzi (RHBs .300 wOBA, but .330 xwOBA since LY).

Early Returns For One Time Ace Are Encouraging

Luis Severino, Sandy Alcantara and Shohei Ohtani are all $9K pitchers available only on FanDuel tonight. All but Ohtani are projected as top five overall pitchers (PlateIQ) there tonight. Ohtani’s most recent effort in Texas was not among his best, as he walked two of 20 batters and allowed a grand slam to the backup catcher. It’s the only home run he’s allowed in two starts though (two barrels), while striking out 14 of 39 (14 SwStr%) with just three walks. He dominated this Houston lineup in his first start (nine Ks). While Alcantara struck out just five of 27 Phillies in his second start and nine of 48 overall, he did drop his walk total from five to one the last time out. Curiously, Statcast reveals that the velocity is down on his four-seamer (nearly a mph), but not his sinker. The former has gone from a 23.3 Whiff% last year to just 14.3% so far. The Cardinals have a 108 wRC+ vs RHP this year so far. While Severino did not entirely hold his velocity gain from his first start when he increased his pitch count to 83 in his second, he did increase his swinging strike rate from 7.7% to 16.9%, as he worked in more cutters and changeups to the Blue Jays. He’s struck out 11 of 35 with just two walks and 52.4% of his contact on the ground against two good offenses. He has allowed three barrels (14.3%), but that’s not damning against Toronto and Boston. The results have been almost entirely encouraging. He carries the highest projected value of these three arms in Detroit (67 wRC+ vs RHP).

Interestingly, Daniel Lynch projects as the top value on either site. He allowed three home runs and more barrels (four) than ground balls (three) to the Cardinals in his first start, but he did strike out seven of 25 with just a single walk and 14.8 SwStr% in his first start. Lynch failed to live up to his prospect hype with a 7.7 K-BB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE over 68 innings. It’s just one start, but maybe he’s at least on the path to fixing one of those things and likely a better option as a secondary option on DraftKings for just $5.5K. Chris Paddack is nearly as cheap on the other end of this matchup. He didn’t walk a batter or allow a home run, as only one batted ball was even barreled against him in his debut for the Twins. Paddack struck out just three of 20 Dodgers, but with a perfectly credible 11 SwStr%. However, his fastball velocity was down 2.8 mph according to Statcast, which is frightening if it’s not just a cold weather, single game blip. While his K-BB has decreased each season, it was still a very respectable 16.8% last year, though the contact profile has been an issue (9.1% Barrels/BBE since 2020).

Jose Berrios projects as a top three value on DK and top five on FD. Through two starts, he’s struck out as many as he’s walked (five). He’s allowed three home runs and a barrel on exactly one-quarter of his batted balls (94.5 mph EV). He’s thrown three pitches at least 30 times this season and none have a wOBA or xwOBA below .485. We know he’s a better pitcher than this and often a streaky one, but it’s a tough matchup at Fenway. Eduardo Rodriquez is a top three projected value on FanDuel, but he has struggled out of the gate as well in his new uniform with an ERA above five even though just half his 10 runs have been earned. His estimators actually match the results so far. He’s walked five of 38 and generated just a 28 GB% with a 95.2 mph EV. E-Rod has struck out just seven with an 8.4 SwStr%. Although, with a 73.7 F-Strike% and the highest Zone rate (43%) since his rookie year, the walks probably won’t continue to be a problem.

Second Year Pitcher Offers Upside at Potential Low Ownership

The theme of tonight’s slate is chaos, weather related once again. Two games have altered their start times in Oakland and Chicago. The O’s & A’s moved their game forward and will start at 6:07 ET. The FanDuel main slate, which was already intended to start a half hour earlier and include three more games than DraftKings, moves with it and now will start an hour earlier and include the same 10 games it was originally supposed to. The Rays & Cubs moved forward and then backwards. Neither game is included on the DraftKings slate, which is now a five game board. Either way, the three most expensive arms on the board (Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt and Logan Gilbert) are available on both slates.

Rodon and Bassitt face off at Citi Field, a well-known negative run environment. Much like he started off last year, Rodon has simply dominated through two starts, striking out 21 of 45 batters (15.6 SwStr%), walking four with a single barrel (5.3%). According to Statcast, his velocity (97.1 mph) is up 1.7 mph since last season. Though he was up in the same range last summer before his shoulder started barking. Rodon has a 35.6 K% since the start of last year with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE allowed. The Mets are hot (132 wRC+ L7 days). Rodon is the top overall projected pitcher (PlateIQ) and a top two value on DraftKings. The only pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites, he’s expected to be one of the most popular pitchers on the board too. Bassitt could get lost in this rotation, but all he’s done is strike out 14 of 44, allowing just a single run on a home run (his only barrel) over 12 innings. Omitting the shortened 2020 season, Bassitt has otherwise increased his K-BB% in four straight seasons. The Giants have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP, but six of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. Bassitt has the second highest projected point total and may be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings. He may have the higher floor than Rodon, but lower ceiling.

Logan Gilbert is the only other pitcher above $9K on both sites. He broke into the league with an impressive 19.9 K-BB% over 24 starts last year and has improved that to 25% through his first two of this season. He’s walked just one of 40 batters, allowing a single barrel (3.7%) and 87.2 mph EV. He just might be Seattle’s best pitcher already. Seattle is another severely negative run environment and the Rangers have just a 72 wRC+ vs RHP. Gilbert does not project as well, but this may work to keep his ownership lower too. He has a lot of upside in GPPs.

Rays-Cubs will start at 6:30pm ET on Wednesday due to forecasted inclement weather

Game update: Rays-Cubs will start at 6:30pm ET on Wednesday due to forecasted inclement weather

Gavin Lux (back) scratched Tuesday

Gavin Lux (back) scratched Tuesday

Game Update: Giants-Mets Game 2 start time set for 7:30 ET Tuesday

Carlos Santana scratched Tuesday

Carlos Santana scratched Tuesday

Top NL Teams May Provide High Leverage Bats Tonight

On a fairly sizeable slate, despite their failures against Chad Kuhl last night, the Phillies are once again the only team nearing 10% with either their team ownership or Smash% projections. In terms of projected value, it’s very different on both sites, but Cincinnati is one team that projects fairly highly on both sites. They have a tough matchup in San Diego, but LHBs have had some success against Joe Musgrove since last season (.314 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) and Joey Votto ($3.5K DK – 157 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) is the only batter in the entire projected lineup above $3K on either site.

Looking at the Leverage projections, which won’t come through all that often, but could win you GPP when they do, likely mean attacking a solid pitcher tonight. However, we also find some offenses that aren’t expected to be under-owned very often. On DraftKings, that’s the Blue Jays ( at Boston – Nathan Eovaldi) and Dodgers (vs Atlanta – Max Fried). Both teams have implied run lines just below four and a half, which is not terrible. Both pitchers have ERAs of at least 4.5 through two starts, but both pitchers also have estimators much lower. Eovaldi has struck out 13 of 43 batters (14.1 SwStr%), but has already allowed four home runs and five barrels (18.5%) in New York and Detroit. He allowed just 15 dingers all of last season. He does have a reverse split though (RHBs .314 wOBA since last season), while George Springer (133 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (172 wRC+, .314 ISO) have smashed same handed pitching and have low ownership expectations against quality pitching at a high cost.

Batters from either side of the plate are below a .304 wOBA and xwOBA against Fried since last season. Truth be told, the Dodgers are probably going to need some ground balls to sneak through, but that’s been happening this year (.395 BABIP and 52.9 LOB% for Fried). We don’t expect that to sustain, but Trea Turner, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor all exceed a 140 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs LHP since last season. Mookie Betts and Justin Turner both exceed a 110 wRC+ and .200 ISO as well. On the opposite side, the Braves are potentially a top Leverage team on FanDuel. Walker Buehler has been the opposite of Fried, perhaps with some undeserved success (.248 BABIP, 80.8 LOB% since last year). Batters from either side of the plate are still below a .285 xwOBA against him, but also more than 10 points above their wOBA. Matt Olson (148 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .247 ISO), Ozzie Albies (94 wRC+, .221 ISO) and Adam Duvall (114 wRC+, .275 ISO) could all do some damage.

Game Update: White Sox-Guardians postponed Tuesday due to inclement weather

These Two Lineups Are Where You'll Find the Value Bats

You’re likely paying up for pitching tonight and if you want to be anywhere near the top of the board offensively, you’re likely going to need to pay up for Coors bats as well, so where are players going to find their much needed savings tonight? That depends which site we’re talking about, but over on DraftKings, three Minnesota bats carry top six point per dollar projections (PlateIQ) in Kansas City against Carlos Hernandez, who has a nearly 50 point reverse split by wOBA (RHBs .320), while Statcast puts batters from either side within five points of a .320 xwOBA. Luis Arraez (114 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021), Gio Urshela (125 wRC+ this season overall) and Trevor Larnach (103 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) all cost $2.5K or less on DK tonight.

Over on FanDuel, Tampa Bay bats are three of the top six values at Wrigley against Justin Steele, who has some strikeouts and lots of ground balls this season, but just a 6.7 SwStr%. It’s cold and the wind is blowing in, prime pitching weather, but Harold Ramirez (110 wRC+ vs LHP since 2021), Yandy Diaz (124 wRC+) and Mike Zunino (222 wRC+) all cost $2.5K or less against a pitcher with a 90 point platoon split (RHBs .342 wOBA since last season).

Power Stroke May Be Returning to Top Projected Bat

The two teams at Coors (Phillies 6.12 implied runs, Rockies 5.38) sit atop the board tonight, despite the fact that two ground ball pitchers are on the mound and one, Kyle Gibson, has exceeded an 18.5 SwStr% in each of his first two starts. It should be no surprise that the first four in the projected Philadelphia lineup (J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos) also own the top overall point projections via PlateIQ tonight. Ownership expectations for these players are fairly enormous on a sizeable slate.

The Red Sox are the only offense outside Coors to reach five implied runs and we find their RH power bats (Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Trevor Story) right below Philly bats in terms of projected point totals. RHBs have a .360 wOBA (.362 xwOBA) against Yusei Kikuchi since last year. It’s expected to be fairly cold at Fenway tonight, but with a decent wind blowing out to center. All three batters exceed a 115 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, but also consider Enrique Hernandez (131 wRC+, .239 ISO), Bobby Dalbec (126 wRC+, .262 ISO) and even Christian Arroyo (113 wRC+, .184 ISO) in Boston stacks.

One of the top projected bats outside of these three teams is Christian Yelich (116 wRC+, .133 ISO vs RHP since 2021). The numbers against RHP since last year aren’t great and are certainly lacking power, but did hit a grand slam yesterday and does lead the projected lineup with a 140 wRC+ this season. Maybe the power is beginning to return and Brubaker’s main issue was home runs last year, while he’s struggled with walks in his first two starts this year, which means Yelich could come to the plate with runners on ahead of him a few times.