DFS Alerts

Top Projected Offense Could See a Lot of Struggling Pen

We may have enough 2022 information at this point to start considering bullpens. You generally don’t want to use full season numbers anyway because there’s so much turnover throughout the season. A bit less than two weeks is still a fairly small sample, but may be worth looking at. The Arizona bullpen has the worst xFIP (5.28) and SIERA (4.84) in the league thus far and in game two of a doubleheader, starting Tyler Gilbert, there’s a good chance we see a lot of it this afternoon in a game that is only present on the DraftKings main slate. We know the Washington offense is lacking, but Juan Soto does not suffer a large platoon split. He, Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell all exceed a .360 wOBA and .185 ISO vs LHP since last season. The Nationals currently have the fifth highest implied run line on the slate (4.67).

The Texas Rangers come in with an equal bullpen 5.66 ERA and FIP that are worst in the majors. Seattle is not a hitter friendly park, but we may see a lot of this bullpen after Jon Gray faced just 16 batters in his first start due to a blister issue and is now making only his second start after an IL stint. On the other side, Robbie Ray has looked like the old Robbie Ray for the Mariners and that’s not good, but if you’re considering attacking him tonight, realize that Seattle has owned a top five bullpen by ERA and every estimator so far. Other top bullpens include the Dodgers and (checks twice, three times) the Orioles. Cincinnati is another bullpen that has struggled and could see a lot of action behind the rookie starter Reiver Sanmartin.

Quality Pitchers with Tough Matchups Populate Middle of the Board

It’s a fairly strong pitching board at the top tonight, including both reigning Cy Young winners, although one is really struggling to start the season. That’s a good thing too because the rest of the board is fairly risky without anything that stands out, though we can cover a few names. Jon Gray faced just 16 batters in his first start for the Rangers and then missed his second one with a blister. He struck out four, but also walked two with a 12.9 SwStr%. There had been some hype about a new slider and he threw this pitch 24 times, almost exclusively to RHBs with a 53.8 Whiff%. Statcast also suggests less drop and more sweep on the pitch than last year. Perhaps it’s something to watch and the matchup is fine in Seattle, but blister issues can be tricky. We may have to worry about workload, but he currently projects for low ownership.

Max Fried (at Dodgers) and Nathan Eovaldi (vs Blue Jays) are quality pitchers with tough matchups who are barely below the top arms in terms of pricing tonight. However, both have estimators well below their ERAs through two starts. Fried, in particular, has walked just two of 49 batters with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.6%) and an average exit velocity of just 84.8 mph. He’s struck out just nine, but a 12.3 SwStr% is higher than each of the last three years and his velocity is up nearly a full mile per hour. The problem has been a .395 BABIP and 52.9 LOB%. Patrick Sandoval’s first start of the season was delayed a few days, but it didn’t seem to affect him one bit, as he struck out six of 18 Marlins (16.9 SwStr%), building on a 25.9 K% last season. He also did walk three (9.9 BB% last year) and generated just a single ball (11.1%), but no barrels. It’s a tough spot for him too, though, in Houston.

Josh Fleming has struck out 11 of the 30 batters he’s faced this year (18.1 SwStr%). A quick check confirms this is the same Josh Fleming who struck out just 14.5% of batters last year. It’s not a velocity thing, but he seems to be throwing even more sinkers (65.7%) and a new slider (14.3%), while abandoning his cutter last year if Fangraphs is to be believed. Statcast is still classifying a cutter, but with more than double last year’s Whiff% so far. Fleming has also generated 72.2% of his contact on the ground with just one barrel so far. He may be worth a flyer in large GPPs on DK, costing just $6.1K in great pitching weather at Wrigley.

J.T. Brubaker nearly broke out with a 16.9 K-BB% last year, but a stretch of 18 home runs over 10 games over the summer sent his ERA soaring above five before he was shut down in September. He’s only allowed a single barrel and home run through two starts this year, but suddenly forgot how to throw strikes. He’s walked and struck out seven each of the 39 batters he’s faced this year. His F-Strike% and Zone% are the same as last year, but batters are swinging less overall and more often inside the strike zone. He has just a 22.2 O-Swing% so far. The Brewers have just a 79 wRC+ over the last seven days and Brubaker costs just $5.9K on DraftKIngs.

Kyle Gibson followed up a 10 strikeout performance to open the season against the A’s with merely six of 21 Marlins, though he’s exceeded an 18.5 SwStr% in each start. It’s not a velocity or arsenal change, but his sinker whiff rate has more than doubled to 43.8% this year. There doesn’t appear to be anything significantly different about it though, so maybe it’s just the fact that he’s faced two below average offenses, but he’s facing another one tonight, though the Rockies do have a 116 wRC+ vs RHP this year. If you can stomach Coors, Gibson costs $6.6K on DK.

Top Arm May Also Be Top Value

Weather may again be the headliner of Tuesday night’s slate, but not in the same way as last night. Thankfully, no games seem to be at risk of cancellation, but cold temperatures and strong winds throughout the country could play a large part in results before the night is done. FanDuel is offering 10 games tonight, while DraftKings will additionally offer the second game in Washington for a total of 11. Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher to reach the $10K mark on both sites, but is the most expensive on neither. He then dominated the Orioles in Baltimore last time out, striking out eight of 25 with a walk in three hits after struggling with his command at Wrigley (three walks) on Opening Day. His 16.1 SwStr% is within half a point of last year’s rate. Burnes has a 2.79 SIERA over the last two calendar years. The projected lineup for the Pirates includes just two batters below a 22.5 K% vs RHP since last year. Burnes is the top projected pitcher on both sites and potentially the top value on DraftKings as well, though may have some competition when it comes to ownership rates.

Joe Musgrove costs $11K on FanDuel, but just $8.6K on DraftKings at home against the Reds (48 wRC+ vs RHP, 50 wRC+ last seven days). Picking up right up where he left off last year, he’s struck out 14 of 45 batters with an 86.5 mph EV and just two barrels (6.5%) through two starts. He hasn’t walked a batter yet and has a 21.1 K% since the start of the 2020 season, over which all estimators have been below four. Musgrove is the number three pitcher overall in terms of projections (PlateIQ) and a great value on DraftKings.

Walker Buehler is DraftKings’ most expensive arm ($10.7K) and exactly $1K less on FanDuel. He’s struck out just nine of 45 with five walks and four barrels, but just one has left the yard and half his contact has been on the ground. His strikeout rate is more good than elite (26% last year) and his swinging strike rate has never exceeded 12.3%. Since the start of last season, he has a .248 BABIP, 80.8 LOB% and 10 HR/FB. These things shouldn’t be sustainable as estimators run nearly a run above his 2.51 ERA over this span. That’s not to say he’s not a good or even very good pitcher, but that he may be a tad over-valued, though there’s something to say for a guy who gave his team at least six innings in all but four starts last year. He’s failed to do so yet this year though. However, only two batters in the projected Atlanta lineup exceed a .325 wOBA vs RHP since last season with five batters above a 25 K%. This may be a better matchup than we suspect, but as a top five overall point total projection, Buehler is not nearly a top projected value on either site, which could keep ownership low.

Framber Valdez costs $10.2K on DK, $700 less on FD. He generated a ridiculous 70.3 GB% over 22 starts last year and has improved on that with a 73.9% rate over two starts this year. He did walk five Diamondbacks last time out and struggled with control last season (10.1 BB%). His sinker velocity is up nearly a mile per hour with a slight increase on the whiff rate (17.2%) so far. He’s struck out nine of 39 batters overall and generally goes pretty deep into games. He’s also a top five overall projected pitcher on either site, but the matchup could be a bit tricky tonight. While there are five batters in the projected Angels’ lineup with at least a 24.5 K% vs LHP since last season, if Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon remain out, it could end up being a great spot for Valdez. Lastly, Robbie Ray is the only other pitcher to reach $9K on both sites and he’s within $200 of $10K on DK and FD. It’s a pitcher’s park and there are just three in the projected Texas lineup below a 22 K% vs LHP since last season, but so far, he’s struck out just nine of 56 batters (10.9 SwStr%) with six walks and four home runs (six barrels). Statcast has his velocity down nearly three mph. Just about every fear anyone could have had about Ray regressing back to his former self has been realized through two starts. It’s coming back at him (94.5 mph EV) much harder than he’s sending it in (91.7 mph). We can’t proclaim a disaster after just two starts, but there’s been nothing encouraging other than his 90.3% strand rate, which can’t last.

Tyler Naquin (undisclosed) scratched Monday, placed on IL

Tyler Naquin (undisclosed) scratched Monday, placed on IL

Wander Franco (quad) scratched Monday

Wander Franco (quad) scratched Monday

Anthony Rendon scratched Monday

Anthony Rendon scratched Monday

Giants-Mets postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Game Update: Giants-Mets postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Potential Strong Leveraging Opportunity with Top Offense Tonight

The Philadelphia Phillies are projected to be the most popular stack tonight by a decent margin for fairly obvious reasons at Coors. No other team comes within a run of their implied total above six. Milwaukee bats are projected to be popular as well, especially on DraftKings because they are also a team with a high implied total, but just as importantly, they are cheap and could be combined with Philadelphia bats might allow for some decent pitchers. Again, PlateIQ simulations see the Phillies as the only team Smashing the slate at a double digit rate. In fact, they are separated from the second highest Smash% (Dodgers) by more than five percentage points. When we jump into potential value, it’s Oakland at the top in their home opener against Spenser Watkins and the Orioles. While Watkins increased his fastball velocity from last year a full two mph (92.8) in his first start, it resulted in just a single swing and miss over 57 pitches. Over 57.2 career innings, he has just a 5.5 K-BB% with estimators well above five. ZIPs projects him above six this year. Batters from either side of the plate have thumped him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .340, but RHBs have demolished him above .400 since last year. However, this all gives Oakland a negative Leverage value on either site, meaning enough people are expected to realize the advantage here and utilize it.

If you’re looking to differentiate and find a strong leveraging opportunity, you’re probably going to have to do something uncomfortable tonight and attack a quality pitcher with a marginal or below average offense. The Braves (vs Kerahaw in LA), Orioles (vs Montas in Oakland) and Reds (vs Manaea in San Diego) probably don’t jump out just from pure stats. The Mets (vs Cobb in NY) are a bit more potent, but there are significant weather concerns here and Alex Cobb looked great in his first start with noticeably increased velocity. Two teams that might make the most sense, though both have a better Leverage projection on DraftKings, are the Pirates and the Astros.

Eric Lauer is another spring training velocity increaser whose spike held through his first start. Averaging more than 94 mph on his fastball, he struck out five of 19 Orioles, but did so with just a 6.7 SwStr% and as many ground balls (two) as barrels. Lauer has a career 12.9 K-BB%, but is up to 15.6% since the start of last season, over which he carries estimators a bit above four. Lauer is a well projected pitcher tonight, but that also suggests he may be a popular roster, making it potentially more profitable to be on the other side of that. It’s not like Lauer is unhittable. Batters from either side of the plate are just a bit above a .300 xwOBA against him since last year. Bryan Reynolds (140 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP since 2021) is the must have bat here, but a more interesting one might be Michael Chavis (121 wRC+, .258 ISO), who’s much cheaper and projected to bat right behind Reynolds.

In just his sixth start since his rookie season (2015), Michael Lorenzen struck out seven of 20 Marlins (14.6 SwStr%), throwing his sinker, four-seamer, cutter, slider and changeup all more than 10% of the time. He also did not walk a batter with nine of 13 batted balls on the ground. His only barrel left the yard. That said, the Astros also have one of the highest team run totals on the board tonight, which makes their positive Leverage projections so interesting. Lorenzen has a large platoon split, including his bullpen work since last season, giving the three LHBs (Brantley, Alvarez, Tucker) a big boost, but the three RHBs among the top six in the projected order (Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel) all have a wRC+ above 110 vs RHP since last season as well.

A Pitcher To Attack with a Reverse Platoon and Contact Profile Issues

Much expectedly, the Philadelphia Phillies are the top offense on the board. No other team comes close to their 6.1 implied run total tonight at Coors against Chad Kuhl. In fact, no other team reaches five runs. LHBs have a .357 wOBA against Kuhl since last year (.355 xwOBA). He did strike out five of 19 Rangers with an incredibly impressive 17.5 SwStr%, but also walked four in his first start for the Rockies. A slider, which he threw 27 times and more often to LHBs (16 to 11), had a 60 Whiff% in Texas. The pitch produced half that (33.5%) last year. We can’t ignore that Kuhl has a career 10.5 K-BB% and has never produced a season exit velocity below 88.5 mph. His rolling two year SIERA is 5.04. Phillies own five of the top six overall projected bats (PlateIQ) tonight, broken up only by Shohei Ohtani in Houston (Luis Garcia). Bryce Harper (188 wRC+, .373 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected bat by more than two and a half fantasy points on either site tonight. This is going to be a tough stack to afford though, without sprinkling in some Johan Camargo and/or Simon Muzziotti for less than $3K (or whoever replaces them if not available).

The most highly regarded teams outside Coors are the Astros, Brewers and Dodgers, all at home. Each team has a run total around 4.8 tonight. The Astros will play their first home game against the Angels tonight. In just his sixth start since his rookie season (2015), Michael Lorenzen struck out seven of 20 Marlins (14.6 SwStr%), throwing his sinker, four-seamer, cutter, slider and changeup all more than 10% of the time. He also did not walk a batter with nine of 13 batted balls on the ground. His only barrel left the yard. Including his relief work, LHBs (.320 wOBA) are over 80 points better against him since last year. Obviously, this bodes best for Michael Brantley (158 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Yordan Alvarez (148 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (138 wRC+, .261 ISO).

Zach Thompson has similar platoon issues (LHBs .338 wOBA, RHBs .261 wOBA). All three Brewers in the projected lineup with an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season bat from the right side, but Rowdy Tellez (91 wRC+, .186 ISO) is the only bat in said lineup above a 100 wRC+ this season (147) and is also the cheapest on DK ($2.8K). Tellez is the highest projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and is second on FanDuel, where he’s joined by several additional Milwaukee bats.

The Dodgers will face Huascar Ynoa, who produced an exciting 20.2 K-BB% last season, but the contact profile was a bit of a mess (9.1% Barrels/BBE, 90.7 mph EV, 14 HRs in 91 IP). This seemed to follow him into his first start, in which he struck out four of 22 Nationals (12.5 SwStr%), though he also walked two. Three of 12 batted balls were barreled.. Contact neutral estimators are in the mid-threes since last season, though his xERA jumps well above four. This is an interesting spot for Dodger bats with marginal ownership projections outside Mookie Betts (126 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Trea Turner (123 wRC+, .169 ISO). Ynoa has displayed a reverse split since last season (RHBs .328 wOBA, LHBs .286), but we still have Justin Turner (127 wRC+, .166 ISO) and Will Smith (145 wRC+, .260 ISO) in the middle of the order at more reasonable price tags. Both are within $100 of $4K on DK.

Mid-Range Velocity Increaser with Improved K-BB% Since 2021

When thinking about potential upside with a cost below $9K on the mound tonight, Alex Cobb has to immediately come to mind. He struck out 10 of the 21 Padres he faced in his first start with a 16.9 SwStr%. Five of his nine batted balls were on the ground without a single line drive or barrel. Cobb threw only his sinker or split-finger 95% of the time and why not? The sinker held a spring training velocity spike of nearly two mph above last year. He’s in a very pitcher friendly park tonight in New York too. However, the game is currently color coded Orange in the forecast and carries great risk to starting pitchers. Hopefully, we get a more favorable update later in the afternoon.

Eric Lauer is another spring training velocity increaser whose spike held through his first start. Averaging more than 94 mph on his fastball, he struck out five of 19 Orioles, but did so with just a 6.7 SwStr% and as many ground balls (two) as barrels. Lauer has a career 12.9 K-BB%, but is up to 15.6% since the start of last season, over which he carries estimators a bit above four. Lauer costs just $7.1K on FD against the Pirates (104 wRC+ L7 days). PlateIQ projections suggest he could be a great value on either site tonight, which is impressive, considering he costs $1.8K more on DK. In just his sixth start since his rookie season (2015), Michael Lorenzen struck out seven of 20 Marlins (14.6 SwStr%), throwing his sinker, four-seamer, cutter, slider and changeup all more than 10% of the time. He faces the Astros in Houston’s home opener though. Five of nine projected batters have a strikeout rate below 18% vs RHP since last season.

Huascar Ynoa produced an exciting 20.2 K-BB% last season, but the contact profile was a bit of a mess (9.1% Barrels/BBE, 90.7 mph EV, 14 HRs in 91 IP). This seemed to follow him into his first start, in which he struck out four of 22 Nationals (12.5 SwStr%), though he also walked two. Contact neutral estimators are in the mid-threes since last season, though his xERA jumps well above four. The problem here is the Dodger lineup (130 wRC+ vs RHP this season, 142 wRC+ overall L7 days). Kyle Hendricks has struck out 11 of 45 batters (14.3 SwStr%) with a 53.6 Whiff% on his changeup through two starts. But he’s also walked seven with just a 38.5 GB% and 90.8 mph EV. He costs just $6.6K on DK against the Rays at home, but has considerable weather concerns. Nick Lodolo costs $6K on either site. In his first major league start, the Guardians took him deep twice and walked three times. It took him 24 batters to record just 12 outs, striking out just four with a 7.6 SwStr%, but he did keep the ball on the ground at a 53.3% rate, allowing just an 81.4 mph EV with only a single barrel. Lodolo only has 10.2 innings above AA, but produced a 34.1 K-BB% in 44 innings at that level last year. Most projection systems have him between a four and four and a half ERA this year. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego tonight and isn’t the worst lottery ticket on a potentially chaotic slate.

Weather Creates Potential Issues With High End Pitching

The prevailing theme to tonight’s nine game slate is weather. And not the favorable kind either. We’re already down one game in Washington, while Kevin has also labelled the game between the Giants and Mets in New York and Rays and Cubs in Chicago as potentially troublesome. This is a major disappointment because it likely takes Alex Cobb, Tylor Megill and Shane McClanahan, all velocity increasers who have looked dominant in early starts, off the board. The lone $10K pitcher tonight on either and both sites is Clayton Kershaw. You may remember that the evil, moustache twirling Dave Roberts intentionally broke baseball when you removed Kershaw from a perfect game with just 80 pitches after seven innings last week. He struck out 13 of the 21 Twins he faced with a 23.8 SwStr% and just a 78.8 mph EV on eight batted balls. In 22 starts last year, Kershaw produced a 25.2 K-BB% and allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. Of course, the problem in recent years has been staying off the IL, as he has a two year rolling SIERA of just 3.03. The projected Atlanta lineup the Dodgers will host includes five batters with a .315 or lower wOBA against LHP since last season, but not a ton of strikeouts and we have to be concerned with Kershaw’s workload again. Of course, if he repeats his effort against the Twins, neither cost, nor workload will be a factor. None the less, he would seem a risky roster. While he is projected neither for the most fantasy points (PlateIQ), nor highest ownership, he is top four on either site in both categories.

Aaron Nola, Sean Manaea and Tylor Megill reach the $9K price point on both sites. Nola struck out seven of the 23 A’s he faced without a walk, but allowed two home runs. He came back against the Mets to strike out five of 17, but with three walks and two hit batsmen. Now he has to pitch at Coors. Although 59.1% of his contact has been on the ground, he’s still allowed three home runs on four barrels (18.2%). The Philadelphia defense probably isn’t going to help him (though they rate as a top team in Outs Above Average through a week and a half), but Nola also has to help himself first. While there are several pitchers projected to have better nights, ownership expectations are nearly zero.

Manaea has pitched 13 quality innings for his new team, striking out 13 of 45 batters (11.5 SwStr%) with just three walks. His lone barrel allowed stayed in the yard. Manaea is looking to build on a career best 20.3 K-BB% (21.1% in just 29.2 innings in 2019) last year. He has a solid two year rolling SIERA of just 3.73. He’s a keeper at home against the Reds (50 wRC+ last seven days, 48 wRC+ vs LHP so far), but everyone knows it. Megill has struck out 11 of 36 batters (16 SwStr%) with a 52.2 GB% and just a single barrel (4%). He has not issued a walk yet. In addition to a nearly two mph velocity spike as well, the shape of his secondary pitches have changed too, resulting in all around improvement. Ownership projections are low against a quality lineup, but one that offers a ton of strikeouts in a pitcher friendly park, but again…weather.

Frankie Montas is $9.9K on FanDuel, but just $7.3K on DK, where he’s easily the top value. In fact, he’s tonight’s top projected pitcher overall, but also the top projected ownership rate. Montas has struck out 12 of 47 batters (16 SwStr%) with just a single walk through two starts (at Rays and at Phillies). He looks to continue building on a fantastic season last year, in which he had a 19.3 K-BB% with estimators below four. The A’s face the Orioles in their home debut. Luis Garcia is nearly $3K less on FanDuel ($6.7K). He was pulled after 16 batters (71 pitches in his first start), walking two Diamondbacks with just a single strikeout (5.6 SwStr%). The good news is that he was up a mile and a half per hour on his fastball (94.8) in Arizona. He’ll also face a projected Angels’ lineup that includes just one batter below a 24.5 K% vs RHP since last season and omits Mike Trout. Shane McClanahan costs $9.2K on FD ($8.1K DK). He’s struck out 15 of 38 batters (18.3 SwStr%), but also walked five, failing to get through five innings in either start, despite facing 19 batters in each. Statcast suggests his velocity is up nearly a mph on his four-seamer this year (97.3). McClanahan did have some barrel issues last year (10.7%), but was otherwise fantastic (20.1 K-BB%) and may be even better this year. However, again,…weather. If they do get it in, it’ll be near freezing, but with a strong wind blowing out to RF.

White Sox-Guardians postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Game update: White Sox-Guardians postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Diamondbacks-Nationals postponed due to inclement weather Monday

Game Update: Diamondbacks-Nationals postponed due to inclement weather Monday

Tigers-Royals postponed due to inclement weather Sunday

Game update: Tigers-Royals postponed due to inclement weather Sunday

Brad Miller (back) scratched Saturday

Brad Miller (back) scratched Saturday