DFS Alerts

A 20.7 SwStr% & 60.3 O-Swing% in Three Starts for New Team

Tonight’s top two pitchers have come out of the gate on absolute fire to start the 2022 season with both new teams and leagues. Carlos Rodon is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight, while Kevin Gausman does so on DraftKings only. Might as well include Chris Bassitt as well, as he is within $200 of $10K on either site. Rodon has done everything he can through three starts to prove that the first half of last season was no fluke. He simply has a 44.6 K% (16.8 SwStr%) and has allowed just a single barrel (3.4%) behind an 84.6 mph EV. Four of his 16 fly balls have been popups. Rodon’s worst estimator is a 2.84 DRA with no other estimator within even half a run. Considering the A’s are basically running out a AAA lineup at this point (72 wRC+ last seven days), Rodon is the clear top overall projected pitcher (PlateIQ), a top five overall projected value on either site tonight, but is also projected to be the most popular arm and in over one-quarter of lineups tonight on either site.

Gausman has a 30.1 K% through three starts that still doesn’t do his 20.7 SwStr% justice and he’s been above 18% in every start. His slider and split finger, which combine for about half his offerings, both have a whiff rate above 45%. Overall, he owns an outrageous 60.3 O-Swing%. To put that into context, league average is currently 31.2%. He has neither walked anyone yet, nor allowed a home run on just two barrels (3.8%). Kind of hard to walk anyone when they’re swinging at more than half the pitches out of the strike zone. For some reason, DRA hates him (3.66), but his next highest estimator is 3.03 xERA, which still may not be doing him justice. Gausman projects well on either site, but not directly below Rodon, though these numbers are fluid and can change before game time. However, if we suspect his ownership is going to be much lower than Rodon, he makes for a great GPP play against a struggling offense (Red Sox 50 wRC+ last seven days).

Bassitt had a rough first inning last time out in which the Giants put a three spot on the board, but that represents half the runs he’s allowed over three starts. He settled down from there and has pitched exactly six innings with at least six strikeouts in all three starts with just four total walks. In addition to the 22.9 K-BB%, Bassitt has a 45.6 GB% and 17.6 IFFB% with just an 83.5 mph EV. His 3.00 ERA is within a quarter run of all his estimators. In his favor is a great park in St Louis against an offense that struggles against RHP (92 wRC+) with a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side of the plate are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against Bassitt since last season. Bassitt doesn’t have the upside of the other two, but generally has a pretty high floor and will pitch deep into games.

Weakness Against LHB Could Create Strong Leverage Situation

Stacking projections on DraftKings expect to see a lot of the top three teams by implied run total (Phillies, Dodgers and Astros) in that order with the Red Sox the only other team currently reaching double digit ownership expectations on a seven game slate. With four fewer teams on FanDuel and some major pricing differences, the Astros ahead of the Dodgers and no other team even close. Smash potential simulations are in line with team run totals as well. Houston is the top projected value by a mile on FanDuel, where they currently have a number twice any other team. On DraftKings, Houston stacks still project for solid value, though both the Brewers and Red Sox are currently ahead of them.

Getting into the stuff that wins GPPs, Leverage, we find the Cardinals with the only projection over five percent on FanDuel, but a full on stack against Max Scherzer in a negative run environment, even on a five game slate, seems like shear lunacy, though he has become prone to more hard contact in his later years. The Cardinals have few LHBs and RHBs are still below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Scherzer since last season. The Mets currently have the second best Leverage% projection on FD and that makes some more sense. A 27.2 K% for Miles Mikolas over his last two starts is a complete fabrication with just an 8.5 SwStr%. The Mets have a deep and balances lineup with only Robinson Cano and James McCann below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since the start of last season, among projected starters. LHBs have a .301 wOBA, but .327 xwOBA in 13 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA.

DraftKings is a bit more interesting, where the Cardinals are a bit behind the Rockies in terms of Leverage%. After striking out 16 of his first 43 batters with a 19.1 SwStr% against the A’s and Marlins, Kyle Gibson struck out just three of 26 at Coors with an 11.1 SwStr%. He’s getting nearly double the rate of swings and misses on his sinker and changeup from last year and nothing really looks different about them, so perhaps we can chalk this up to young hitter over-aggression early in the season. All estimators are currently more than half a run below his 3.57 ERA (66.3 LOB%). His low price tag likely means he’ll be rostered in a lot of lineups, but LHBs own a .321 wOBA against him since last year. Among the four LHBs in the Colorado projected lineup, only Ryan McMahon is above a 100 wRC+ against RHP since last season, but only Charlie Blackmon is below a .200 ISO and he’s off to a hot start this season (126 wRC+ overall). The Diamondbacks are currently third by Leverage% and Walker Buehler has struggled with a 4.02 ERA that’s well below estimators, most extremely a 5.66 xERA (11.8% Barrels/BBE), but batters from either side of the plate are still below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA since last season and there Seth Beer is the only batter in the projected Arizona lineup above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. Daulton Varsho (100 wRC+, .211 ISO) is right there though.

The Top of the Board Offense That Includes Great Value Bats

The Houston Astros sit somewhat alone at third highest team run total tonight, right around four and a half against Dane Dunning in Texas. He’s going to keep it on the ground over half the time (51.3%), though half of his eight fly balls have been barrels and one-quarter of them have left the yard so far. He struck out 22.3% of batters last year and is right there again this year (23%), but with just a 7.9 SwStr% and 11.5 BB%. With his fastball sitting below 90 mph this year, the ground ball rate might be the only thing working against the Astros tonight. Houston bats project well, though not at the very top of the board overall. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Dunning since last year, so we certainly like someone like Jeremy Pena (163 wRC+, .325 ISO vs RHP) in the leadoff spot ($2.9K on FD), along with Michael Brantley (159 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP since 2021) at $3.5K or less on either site, as great potential values. As a matter of fact, six of the top 11 projected point per dollar values on FanDuel are Houston bats, including Pena, Brantley and Kyle Tucker (143 wRC+, .327 ISO), who still somehow costs less than $3K. Yordan Alvarez (140 wRC+, .266 ISO) is the most expensive piece of this puzzle.

Addtionally interesting low cost bats, who project decently from a point per dollar value and should find themselves in the middle of their teams’ lineup tonight include Franmil Reyes (115 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since LY) against Michael Lorenzen. RHBs are below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, but Reyes costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Alex Verdugo (139 wRC+, .188 ISO) costs just $3.3K on DK and Jose Berrios has traditionally struggled with LHBs (.351 wOBA, .350 xwOBA since LY).

Low Ownership Projections for Some Top Bats

It’s not rare to see Shohei Ohtani (148 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP since 2021) atop the overall projections (PlateIQ), even against Shane Bieber, but it is rare to not see Mike Trout (.234 wRC+, .422 ISO) right there with him. That is because Bieber has a very large platoon split (LHBs .319 wOBA since LY, RHBs .245). That’s not to say Trout projects poorly because he never does. He’s also projected for the lowest ownership among top ten projected bats, which makes him much more interesting tonight.

No team on either a five (FD) or seven (DK) game slate eclipse five implied runs tonight with the Dodgers (at Merrill Kelly) and Phillies (vs Kyle Freeland) just below that, as the only two offenses firmly above four and a half runs. Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .165 ISO) own top three projected point totals on either site, as Merrill Kelly owns a reverse split since last year (RHBs .342 wOBA, LHBs .284), though this is not confirmed by Statcast (RHBs .315 xwOBA, LHBs .327). Freddie Freeman (151 wRC+, .214 ISO) also projects very well and you might as well add Max Muncy (131 wRC+, .268 ISO) to stacks, if affordable. Cody Bellinger (76 wRC+, .188 ISO) homered twice on Sunday and is now up to a 165 wRC+ overall this season with a cost still below $3.5K on either site. Freeman is currently projected below 10% ownership on FanDuel.

Phillies bats own four spots among the top eight projected point totals on DraftKings (they’re not available on FanDuel). Bryce Harper might be the most interesting name in the lineup tonight. He’s been DHing a bit with an elbow issue, but still has a 107 wRC+ this season and a 119 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP since last season. LHBs have a .346 wOBA against Freeland (though .296 xwOBA) since last season and while Harper owns the highest projected point total in the lineup, he’s currently expected to the lowest ownership in a lefty on lefty matchup. Remember that ownership projections are fluid throughout the day though. Make sure to check back before lock. Rhys Hoskins (149 wRC+, .336 ISO), Nick Castellanos (146 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Jean Segura (136 wRC+, .197 ISO) are the remaining projected top bats.

A Trio of Struggling Workhorses That Could Provide Some Value

This slate is loaded with pitchers who have traditionally been workhorses, but have not been this season, due to both the shorter spring ramp up and early performance issues. As such, many of these pitchers are priced below $10K on FD or even $9K on DK tonight. Framber Valdez, Jose Berrios and Walker Buehler are all pitchers we generally expect to get six or even seven innings out of, a rarity in this day and age. Valdez has generated less than two-thirds of his contact on the ground just once over his last 11 starts and has been above 73% in all three this year. He has not allowed a home run, nor even a barrel yet. That’s where the good news ends because he’s struck out (12) only two more than he’s walked (10), generating just a 3.3 K-BB%. He’s failed to compete five innings in any of his last two starts with the 84 pitches he threw in his first start still standing as his season high. He’s thrown a first pitch strike in just over half his battles this season (51.6%), which is a pretty awful number. He is currently a top five projected pitcher on DraftKings in Texas (PlateIQ), but with very low ownership expectations, which could make him a great GPP play if he could rediscover the strike zone.

After two disastrous starts (vs Tex, at NYY), Berrios finally got on track in Boston last time out (6 IP – 28 BF – 1 R – 1 BB – 6 K), though his 93.7 mph EV in that game was still his lowest mark of the season. With an average 94.1 mph EV, he’s already allowed seven barrels (17.5%) with good fortune that just three of them have left the yard. He has just five more ground balls than barrels and had just a 7.3 SwStr% against Boston. His four-seamer and sinker both still have a wOBA and xwOBA above .500. There are still some concerns here and seeing the same lineup for a second consecutive start generally favors the offense. That said, Berrios owns a top three projection on FanDuel with a very moderate ownership projection against an offense with an 80 wRC+ vs RHP. Berrios costs an absurd $5.5K on DraftKings. He’s currently projected to be the top point per dollar value on either site, costing less than $8K on FanDuel as well.

Buehler hasn’t completed six innings yet with just a 16.2 K% (but 12.2 SwStr%) and a 4.02 ERA that’s a half run below his estimators. Add in the contact profile and Statcast spits out a 5.66 xERA. He hit 98 pitches in his second start, but was pulled before 80 in each of his other two. He’s also dropped about a mile per hour in velocity each of the last two seasons now and for a guy who throws his fastball (four-seam, cutter, sinker) two-thirds of the time, that’s potentially problematic, though pitchers have done more with less and it’s been written that he’s constantly tinkering, so we’ll see how he adjusts. Last season started a bit less than ideally as well and he is in a very favorable spot in Arizona last night (75 wRC+ at home), against a lineup that should have a lot of strikeouts in it. Buehler is only a top five projected pitcher on FD currently.

Kyle Gibson’s getting nearly double the rate of swings and misses on his sinker and changeup from last year and nothing really looks different about them, so perhaps we can chalk this up to young hitter over-aggression early in the season. More expectedly, half his contact has been on the ground. All estimators are currently more than half a run below his 3.57 ERA (66.3 LOB%). He faces the Rockies (106 wRC+ on the road so far) in a hitter friendly park, but it’s not Coors. He projects as the second best DK value, the only site he’s available on. Nathan Eovaldi is the second best projected value on FD. He didn’t allow his fifth home run until July in 2021. This year, it took him just three starts. The good news is a 24.6 K-BB%. The bad, obviously, is in the contact profile. A 33.3 HR/FB pace won’t sustain, but a 92.8 mph EV and 14.3% Barrels/BBE are far off from his contact management last year (88 mph EV). An xERA of 4.58 is two runs above his SIERA (2.56) so far with his ERA (3.68) sitting in the middle. He was unable to complete five innings despite 95 pitches against these Blue Jays last time out, although he only allowed a solo home run. Michael Lorenzen is the only pitcher outside Sam Long today with fewer than three. After striking out seven of 20 Marlins over six dominant innings (two hits, one run), it went a bit more roughly in Houston, where he struck out just two of 17 Astros with as many walks and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning. A 56 GB% is impressive and 11.3 SwStr% more than competent, but we’ll see how he continues to fare with reduced velocity (about a mile and a half so far) in a starting role. He does cost just $6.3K on DK against the Guardians tonight.

No Shortage of Top Pitchers Despite Small Slate

The FanDuel main slate stands at just five games tonight, while DraftKings will start an hour earlier and include all seven, which means there probably won’t be full lineup disclosure at lock with two west coast games. Four of seven parks have dome capabilities and there are no weather issues expected in the other three. This slate is loaded with pitchers who have traditionally been workhorses, but have not been this season, due to both the shorter spring ramp up and early performance issues. Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher to reach $10K on DraftKings and does not on FanDuel only because he’s not available on that site tonight. He owns the top overall point projection on DK currently (PlateIQ projections). After a rough first outing at Wrigley, Burnes has simply struck out 18 of his last 50 batters with a single walk and two solo home runs the only damage against him over 14 innings. The 3.61 FIP is about a run above most other estimators and 45.5% of his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat, while the 24.4 K-BB% is actually two points below his career rate. He’s just fine, even if his velocity is down about a mile per hour from last year. There may be some strikeout prone bats at the top of this San Francisco lineup, which is not to say they are not still very dangerous (112 wRC+ vs RHP this year).

Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber are the two $10K pitchers on FanDuel tonight and the only two remaining pitchers above $9K on DraftKings. Scherzer has been fortunate that just one of five barrels (13.2%) has left the yard and he’s walked seven of 69 batters. That said, he’s also struck out exactly one-third of them and only 28.9% of his contact has been at or above a 95 mph EV. His 2.50 ERA is only a bit below estimators that range only as high as a 3.16 xFIP and DRA. St Louis is a power suppressing park and likely the second most negative run environment on the slate behind Seattle. The Cardinal lineup likely won’t have a ton of strikeouts in it, but they have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and 77 wRC+ over the last seven days. Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on FanDuel and just behind Burnes on DK. He’s currently projected to be the most popular on both.

Diminished velocity be damned. Bieber is down over two miles per hour via Statcast, but still living large with a 22.4 K-BB% and 13.9 SwStr% through three starts. That being said, none of his four barrels (10.3%) have left the yard and an 89.3 mph EV so far would be tied for the lowest he’s ever generated. Maybe the shortened 2020 season was a very short peak by a large margin, but the worst of his estimators is still just a 3.13 DRA so far. The Angels have some very dangerous hitters when they’re fully healthy, but also a ton of strikeouts in the projected lineup. Bieber is the next best projected pitcher after Scherzer on either site, but with much reduced ownership considering the size of the slate, at least in comparison to Burners and Scherzer, which makes him a great GPP option.

Brandon Marsh (illness) scratched Sunday

Brandon Marsh (illness) scratched Sunday

As reported by: Sam Blum via Twitter

The start of Pirates-Cubs will be delayed due to rain Sunday

Game update: The start of Pirates-Cubs will be delayed due to rain Sunday

As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter

Josh VanMeter (illness) scratched Saturday

Josh VanMeter (illness) scratched Saturday

As reported by: Jason Mackey via Twitter

Gary Sanchez (undisclosed) scratched Friday

Gary Sanchez (undisclosed) scratched Friday

As reported by: Dan Hayes via Twitter

Rockies-Tigers postponed Friday due to inclement weather

Game update: Rockies-Tigers postponed Friday due to inclement weather

As reported by: Jason Beck via Twitter

Top of the Board Offenses Could Provide Some Leverage Too

On a 13 games slate without a single team above five implied runs, you can expect ownership to be fairly well spread out. On DraftKings, the Yankees currently project for 14.2% stack ownership, likely because cheap secondary pitchers are in large supply tonight. It also doesn’t hurt that the Yankees are facing a barrel prone lefty at home. The Giants are the only other team to reach double digits on either site and do so on both currently. No team currently reaches a double digit Smash% on either site, though the Yankees, again, come closest. And again, it’s no surprise.

Where we start to see some differentiation is in the Value% column, where the Orioles (at Reid Detmers) and White Sox (at Bailey Ober) come closest to 10% on FanDuel. Both are interesting young pitchers, but Ober has shown more upside than the more highly regarded prospect, Detmers, to this point. He’s also already allowed six barrels (17.6% of his contact) this season. San Francisco bats are simply too cheap on DraftKings and their Value projection far exceeds any other stack except for Baltimore. Lastly, we cover the most interesting column, which is Leverage%. Naturally, since the entire point is differentiating from other players and giving ourselves the best opportunity to win a GPP, high Leverage% projections are generally going to suggest attacking some of the top pitchers on the board.

On DraftKings, the top Leverage% projections are very clearly with the Blue Jays (at Justin Verlander) and Phililes (vs Freddy Peralta). Verlander has become a bit home run prone in recent years, but he doesn’t walk many. A lot of those home runs are solo and that’s about all he gives up. He’s come out of the chute like he never left, striking out 15 of 47 batters, most recently with eight shutout innings of three-hit ball in Seattle. An interesting approach might be to try and one-off with some high power Toronto bats for a home run or two. It may even help that Verlander has even had a slight reverse split since 2017, considering how predominantly right-handed the Toronto lineup is. Peralta has had some control issues reform through two starts, walking six of 37 batters, failing to record a fifth inning out in either of his two starts. This could be a more interesting stacking situation in a hitter friendly park. The Milwaukee bullpen has a middling 3.75 xFIP and 3.46 SIERA so far.

On FanDuel, there are currently several teams, including the Phillies, Rockies, Rays, Astros, Angels and Dodgers virtually tied at the top of the Leverage projections. The Phillies have already been covered. The Rockies are facing a fly ball prone pitcher, but have weather concerns and have seemingly never hit well on the road in their existence. The Rays strike out a ton, but batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 xwOBA against Michael Wacha since last season. The Astros and Angels are two of just four teams above 4.5 implied runs. It’s not often you find teams with top run totals with strong Leverage projections. While Petco is a negative run environment, which Weather Edge suggests may be even more emphasized tonight, the Dodgers are murder on RHP and Nick Martinez was barreled five times by the Braves last time out. Max Muncy has pummeled RHP (130 wRC+, .265 ISO since LY) and costs a reasonable $3.2K on FD.

Despite Reverse Spilt, Statcast Suggests All Batters Hit this Pitcher Well

When you look at the Tampa Bay offense, the first thing one might notice that they strike out a lot against RHP (25.9%). In fact, only one team on the slate has struck out more against RHP this season and they’re facing a lefty tonight. Michael Wacha may be worth a look for $6.6K on DraftKings. But also, high strikeout totals don’t preclude this offense from being successful. At 4.4 implied runs, the Rays are currently tied for the fifth spot on the board and Wacha has a substantial reverse platoon split since last season (RHBs .375 wOBA, .401 xwOBA). Yandy Diaz (101 wRC+ vs RHP since LY) hasn’t shown much power against same handed pitching (.104 ISO), but he’s batting fifth and costs just $2.5K on FD. Manuel Margot (123 wRC+ in 2022) is two spots below him, but costs $3K or less on either site. While LHBs have a wOBA 80 points lower against Wacha over the same time span, Statcast drives that up to a .355 xwOBA, so we’re not going to dismiss the most potent part of this Tampa Bay lineup at all. Brandon Lowe (158 wRC+, .304 ISO vs RHP since 2021) may be the most under-rated hitter in baseball. Ji-Man Choi (152 wRC+, .233 ISO) is more than $1K less on DK. Then there’s Wander Franco (105 wRC+, .137 ISO) who only has a 208 wRC+ this season.

RHBs Have Smashed This Pitcher for a .400 xwOBA Since Last Year

On a nearly full 13 game slate, it’s almost shocking that no team exceeds five implied runs tonight, although we are still dealing with cooler April weather. The Yankees (vs Eli Morgan), Angels (vs Bruce Zimmermann), Astros (vs Ross Stripling) and Giants (at Patrick Corbin) are the only teams even above 4.5 run totals tonight. When we filter by overall projected point totals (PlateIQ), we see Shohei Ohtani (148 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Mike Trout (111 wRC+, .065 ISO) at the very top. If that’s a surprising ISO for Trout, recognize it includes just 63 PAs. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Bruce Zimmermann since last season. Other teams to find multiple batters inside the top ten projected point totals on either site are the Yankees (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton), Giants (Darin Ruf and Austin Slater) and Astros (Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman).

Judge (140 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP since LY) and Stanton (133 wRC+, .243 ISO) facing a barrel prone (11.8% of contact last year) lefty (Eli Morgan) at home. Of course. Alvarez (144 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Bregman (166 wRC+, .169 ISO) are facing a pitcher (Ross Stripling) who has allowed batters from either side of the plate a .333 or better wOBA and xwOBA since last season. The Giants face Patrick Corbin , who really hasn’t been as bad as his 7.50 ERA through three starts. In fact, having not allowed a home runs, he has a FIP of just 3.49, but 4.73 xERA on just 2.5% Barrels/BBE. Corbin has just a 5.0 K-BB% and appalling 93.9 Z-Contact%. His velocity was down to 90 mph with just a 5.4 SwStr% in his last start and RHBs have smashed him since the start of last season (.374 wOBA, .400 xwOBA). In addition to Ruf (156 wRC+, .291 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Slater (126 wRC+, .220 ISO), consider Wilmer Flores (112 wRC+, .171 ISO) at just $200 removed from $3K on either site. In fact, Thairo Estrada (67 wRC+, .131 ISO) is the only projected right-handed San Francisco starter to reach the $4K price point on DK tonight, which is why you’ll also find many Giants among the top projected values tonight as well.

A Couple of Very Cheap Upside Arms on DraftKings Tonight

Interesting sub-$7K arms on DraftKings are aplenty tonight. The list includes Wacha, Nick Martinez, Patrick Corbin, Trevor Rogers and Zach Gallen. Martinez struck out six of 21 Giants with a single walk in his first major league start since 2017. But then the home runs allowed were equal to the strikeouts (three) in his second start, additionally walking four Braves. After not allowing a barrel in his first start, opposing batters generated five in his second. He faces a terrifying Dodger lineup. Corbin hasn’t been as bad as his 7.50 ERA through three starts. In fact, having not allowed a home runs, he has a FIP of just 3.49, but 4.73 xERA on just 2.5% Barrels/BBE. Corbin has just a 5.0 K-BB% and appalling 93.9 Z-Contact%. His velocity was down to 90 mph with just a 5.4 SwStr% in his last start. The only appeal here is that the San Francisco lineup may have some strikeouts in it.

Rogers has gotten off to a rough start, striking out just six of 35 batters (8.8 SwStr%) with five walks. Ten runs have crossed the plate over his 6.2 innings on the mound. His Zone and F-Strike rates are actually up, but the chase rate is down and batters are connecting more when they do swing at pitches outside the zone. This is a young pitcher throwing at the same velocity as when he produced a 20.2 K-BB% last year though. He gets a park downgrade against a tough lineup in Atlanta, but certainly seems worth a GPP flyer. A finger injury pushed Zac Gallen’s season debut back a week. He struck out just two of 15 batters with a walk. Injuries were the story last year too when he made just 23 starts. He now has 277.1 innings of work with a 17.9 K-BB%. This price tag seems too low, even against the red hot Mets (127 wRC+ L7 days).