DFS Alerts

Top Offense Also Projects for Great Value on DraftKings

Maybe that’s because the Reds own a 50 wRC+ on the road and 69 wRC+ vs RHP, but again, this is Coors and Antonio Senzatela has been awful. He was signed to a not insignificant contract extension because he supposed to generate tons of ground balls in a park where fly balls are a big problem. To this point, he has struck out just five of 61 batters with a 37.7 GB% and 91 mph EV. This is probably not what the Rockies had in mind. He’s very lucky to have allowed just four barrels (7.3%) and even luckier that only one has left the yard. On a positive note, he’s only walked one and had a FIP and xFIP below four, but an xERA above seven. Batters from either side of the plate range between a .320 to .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. It’s no surprise then, that the top three projected point per dollar values (PlateIQ) on DraftKings are all Reds tonight in Mike Moustakas (76 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Tommy Pham (101 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Joey Votto (150 wRC+, .320 ISO). Tyler Naquin (118 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Nick Senzel (78 wRC+, .095 ISO) also find themselves projected as top 10 values tonight. Atlanta (at Texas – Spencer Howard) is the only other offense with multiple top 10 projected values on DraftKings (Travis Demeritte, Adam Duvall). Check the roof status in Texas as run scoring increases by an average of eight percent with the roof open.

On FanDuel though, Votto is the only Cincinnati top 10 projected value and just barely. It’s Milwaukee bats that project for the most value however, with three bats among the top five against Kyle Hendricks, who hasn’t been bad this season (21.6 K% with estimators around four). Yet, Rowdy Tellez (88 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Kolten Wong (105 wRC+, .174 ISO) cost just $2.3K and LHBs have a .367 wOBA (.368 xwOBA) against Hendricks since last year. Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .125 ISO) costs $2.7K. None are above a 98 wRC+ overall this year though.

Top Projected Bats Not Necessarily Coming from Teams with Largest Run Lines

On a nearly full slate just two games shy of 15 on Friday night, only the two teams at Coors (Reds & Rockies) are currently above five implied runs tonight in a suppressed 2022 run environment (8.04 runs per game MLB average). The Yankees and Dodgers sit right around the five run mark, while the Braves and Giants the only other two teams firmly above four and a half runs. Interestingly, among those six teams, only the Dodgers have multiple batters among the top 10 projected overall bats tonight (PlateIQ). That would be Mookie Betts (122 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Trea Turner (194 wRC+, .298 ISO), who are both top three overall projected bats against Tyler Alexander, who has completed just 10 innings over three starts with as many runs crossing the plate. He’s struck out just eight of 47 with a 7.2 SwStr%, but an 86 mph EV has prevented even more damage (5.6% Barrels/BBE). RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA within a point of .333 on either site.

Two AL East teams also list multiple batters among the top 10 projected hitter point totals tonight. The Yankees are not one of them though with only Aaron Judge (178 wRC+, .328 ISO vs LHP) among the top three against Kris Bubic (RHBs .342 wOBA since LY). The Red Sox are expected to be facing well regarded Kyle Bradish, making his major league debut. He’s certainly talented enough to be worth an SP2 flyer on DraftKings at the minimum priced (in fact, he’s currently the top projected point per dollar value), but both Xander Bogaerts (143 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Trevor Story (83 wRC+, .168 ISO) project as top 10 batters overall bats. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (170 wRC+, .298 ISO) and George Springer (133 wRC+, .272 ISO) have become daily staples of the top 10 and face Jose Urquidy, who has struck out just seven of 62 batters (7.0 SwStr%) with merely a 25 GB% and 91.9 mph EV, resulting in three home runs on six barrels (11.3%). This, despite his velocity being up a full mile per hour (93.5). A 4.92 xFIP is his lone estimator below five at this point. In Toronto’s predominantly right-handed lineup’s favor though, is an 80 point reverse wOBA split (RHBs .326) since last season that’s pretty much confirmed by Statcast (RHBs .341 xwOBA). Toronto does sit inside the top third of the board at 4.37 implied runs tonight.

Two Talents Young Pitching Prospects at the Bottom of the Board

Kyle Bradish is the number seven prospect in the Baltimore system with a 45+ Future Value grade, according to Fangraphs. A February scouting report included a velocity uptick (94-96 mph) in addition to a pair of good breaking balls. Fifteen innings of a 24.6 K-BB% this year follows 86.2 with a 17.5% mark last year. Considering the alterations made to the park in Baltimore and the struggling Boston offense (76 wRC+), which may be without J.D. Martinez tonight, Bradish currently projects as the top DraftKings value at the minimum price tag of $4K (not available on FD).

On the other side of this game, It’s not that Rich Hill and his 12.1 K% (4.7 SwStr%, 94.6 Z-Contact%) or 1.8 K-BB% is all that imposing, but he’ll be piggybacked by Tanner Houck, who does have some talent (20.5 K-BB% over 101.2 major league innings and will probably have nearly no ownership at around $8K on either site. The workload will probably be in the neighborhood of four to five innings, but the Orioles have an 88 wRC+ and 25.4 K% vs RHP this year.

There are a few additional bottom of the board arms who may be worth considering in your DraftKings SP2 spot. With a marginal 11.3 K-BB%, Aaron Civale needs to manage contact better than the average pitcher to succeed, but he’s not been doing that so far. With just a 25.7 GB% and 91 mph EV, he’s allowed five barrels (15.9%) and been fortunate that just two have left the yard. Estimators may be half his 9.58 ERA (41.7 LOB%, .382 BABIP), but none drop below a 4.45 SIERA. This is all about the matchup in Oakland though (89 wRC+, 25.7 K% vs RHP), for less than $7K. Hunter Greene’s 100 mph fastball (avg 98.8) has impressed everyone, along with the 39.1 Whiff% on his slider. It’s added up to a good, not great 26.2 K% and 16.4 K-BB%. It is a bit problematic, at least in Cincinnati and maybe here, tonight, in Colorado, that he’s generated just 28.9% of his contact on the ground with an 89.9 mph EV. This has led to four barrels (10.5%) and three home runs. That said, his 5.27 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.66 SIERA to a 5.13 FIP. He’s at Coors tonight, but the wind is blasting inward and he costs just $6.5K.

Friday night’s large slate may include a number of mid-to-high range pitchers who are overvalued. A key stat in determining some of this is SwStr% in relation to K%. If the latter is in the neighborhood of around three times the former or more, its generally considered unsustainable. Nestor Cortes (4.13 K/SwStr) is one offender, but is not even the chief offender tonight. That would be Adam Wainright (4.25). While Waino is near the top of the league with a 22.4 CStr% again, he’s still going to be unable to maintain a 24.2 K% with just a 5.7 SwStr%. That’s a problem. Everything else in the profile is fine (7.0 BB%, 87 mph EV), although he has allowed six barrels (9.7%) with just two leaving the yard. St Louis will suppress a lot of those in the cold weather, especially this year, now that every park has a humidor and the balls are specifically made to travel less. He’s in a great spot (D’Backs 81 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs RHP) and projects as a top five arm on either site tonight, but buyer beware. This is more a high floor than high ceiling spot with an unsustainable K-rate. Weather Edge also currently implies more hitter friendly conditions in St Louis than usual tonight.

Alex Wood costs $9.5K on FD, but $800 less on DK and projects just outside the top five in a great spot. He isn’t generating as many ground balls (42.1%) and the contact has been a bit harder than you’d like (90.8 mph), but a 20 K-BB% could help rectify some of that. He has allowed six barrels (15.4%), though just two of them have left the yard. This explains why his xERA (4.74) is so much higher than his other estimators (3.04 SIERA). The Nats do own a board low 16.4 K% vs LHP, but with a 72 wRC+ and 1.9 HR/FB.

An interesting pitcher who is projected a bit better than you might expect is Tyler Anderson. The Dodgers have him throwing more cutters. The early result has been an 18 K-BB% with a 54.5 GB% and 81.7 mph EV. He’s pitched around four innings in each of his three outings, but with 80 pitches last time out, should be stretched to five or six innings should the Dodgers want to push him more than twice through the order. The Tigers have a 117 wRC+, but 25.1 K% and 2.5 HR/FB vs LHP. They’ve walked 11.5% of the time though. Anderson costs slightly less than $8K on either site.

Two more mid-range pitchers who might be worth talking about are Kyle Hendricks and Noah Syndergaard. The 10.2 BB% is uncharacteristic and problematic, but otherwise, Hendricks has been fine. His 21.6 K% would be his highest mark since 2017 and a 12.2 SwStr% the best of his career, though that’s really skewed by a 20.5% mark on Opening Day. He’s not generating a lot of ground balls (40.7%), but has still allowed just two barrels (3.4%). Most estimators are in more or less in line with an ERA around four. That might be good enough in Milwaukee (83 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). Syndergaard has failed to average more than 95 mph on his fastball in any of his three starts. The most obvious consequence has been in a 16.4 K%. However, his changeup and slider (thrown a combined 41.9% of the time) both still have whiff rates above 30% and Thor owns a 13 SwStr% overall. Pair this with just four walks and a nearly immaculate contact profile (58 GB%, 85.6 mph EV, 0 barrels) and it’s hard to see he’s suffered for any of the velocity loss. The White Sox have just a 21.3 K%, but 70 wRC+ vs RHP. There are some weather concerns in Chicago, but Syndergaard costs less than $8K on either site.

Projections Down on One Top Arm, May Be Undervaluing Another

Frankie Montas is the only pitcher costing more than $10K on either site ($10.2K on FanDuel) on a 13 game Friday night slate, though Nestor Cortes costs exactly that much on both. Lucas Giolito and Tylor Megill are the only other pitchers on the board to reach the $9K price point on both sites. Aaron Nola is $9.9K on FanDuel, but less than $9K on DraftKings. Starting at the top, early projections (PlateIQ) rank Montas, Nola and then Giolito in that order on either site and they are not separated by much in terms of point total or ownership currently, as the three are also expected to be the most popular pitchers right now (though remember, these numbers are fluid and change throughout the day). All Montas has done is rack up a 22.3 K-BB% with a 50 GB% and 20 IFFB%. This has led to just three barrels (4.7%) and estimators all more than a quarter of a run below his 3.28 ERA (.226 BABIP, 60.4 LOB%). Pitching at home in a great park, the matchup is not ideal (Guardians 126 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP), but they have been regressing heavily with just a team 61 wRC+ over the last seven days. Montas is currently the top projected value on DraftKings among confirmed pitchers tonight as well.

After punching out nine Brewers over seven one-hit shutout innings in his last start, Nola has the strikeout rate up to 29.8% with just a 6.0 BB%. The problem has been when contact is made, despite a 58 GB%. Six of his 22 non-grounders have been barrels with four of them leaving the yard. However, his FIP (4.28) is the only estimator above three. He gets a park upgrade and the Mets have just an 18.4 K% (132 wRC+) vs RHP. If ownership projections remain high, he could be a pitcher to fade. Giolito struck out six of 15 Tigers then missed a start with a short IL stint. He returned to strike out nine of 19 Twins and has a 21.2 SwStr% through 137 pitches. There is the 93.4 mph EV, but it’s only 14 batted balls. The Angels have a 130 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP, though this particular projected lineup includes four batters that have struck out in at least one-quarter of PAs vs RHP this year. Additional issues with Giolito include workload, due both to the fact that he only threw 76 pitches last time out and this being the one game on the board with significant weather concern. In addition to projection updates in LineupHQ, Giolito backers will need to keep on top of Kevin’s forecast today.

Down to the two New York pitchers, Cortes finds himself among the top 10 projected pitchers, while Megill is seventh on either site. Cortes has struck out an astounding 25 of 56 batters…with a 10.8 SwStr%. And a 19.5 CStr% that’s not even that high. Sure, the 64.3 F-Strike% is great, but this is a complete fluke. More sustainably, he’s walked just three. He’s also allowed just a single barrel (3.6%) with an 86.5 mph EV. Estimators, which entirely buy into the strikeout rate are mostly below one and a half. The Royals have just a 66 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but that’s in a small sample and mostly due to a 4.0 HR/FB. They’ve struck out in just 18.6% of PAs against southpaws. The projections are probably correct that Cortes may be a bit over-valued by his price tag.

Megill is a different story. He may still be under-valued by projections. He has worked through the order three times in each of his last two starts and while the velocity dipped two starts back, it was still above last year’s and jumped right back up last time out in Arizona. The profile includes a 21.3 K-BB% with a 24.7 K% that could move even higher with a 13.3 SwStr%. He’s allowed just four barrels (6.3%) and two home runs. A 3.47 DRA is his only estimator that reaches three. The Phillies own a 109 wRC+ and 21 K% vs RHP this season, but that includes a couple of series against Rockies pitching. If Megill remains around 10% ownership, as is currently projected, he’s your GPP arm tonight.

Andrew Knapp (illness) scratched Thursday

Andrew Knapp (illness) scratched Thursday

Brendan Rodgers (back) scratched Wednesday

Brendan Rodgers (back) scratched Wednesday

Could a Top Projected Stack Be a Top Leverage Spot Too?

Although there are currently three teams bunched closely atop the board right around five implied runs without any other team eclipsing four and a half, Yankee stacks project to be quite a bit more popular than any other team tonight. Perhaps the surprise here is seeing Texas stacks currently projected for double digit ownership, facing Javier Cristian in his first start. Remember, these numbers are fluid and can change throughout the day though. Early simulations currently see the three AL East teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays) all “smashing” the slate between nine and 11 percent of the time. Boston (4.12) the only one of those teams with a run total below four and a half. In terms of Value, Baltimore stacks project for the most of it by an overwhelming margin on DraftKings, while Texas has a slight edge over Detroit on FanDuel. The Rangers are the only one of those teams not facing a top pitcher tonight.

We don’t usually find an offense with a top Smash% projection and top Leverage ratio, but that does happen to be the case early on this afternoon, as the Red Sox project to both perform well and be low owned. Perhaps part of that is their team 77 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but Ross Stripling has had his own problems. He has kept the ball on the ground (54.5%) with lots of weak contact (83.6 mph), but he’s also been quite lucky that none of his three barrels (9.1%) has left the yard. He’s also only struck out five of 42 batters, while walking four. Stripling has been held below 65 pitches in each of his starts and the Toronto bullpen has been quite good though (3.08 SIERA). However, since last season, batters from either side of the plate own an xwOBA above .330 against Stripling. Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez all have a wRC+ above 130 and ISO above .180 against RHP since last season.

Top Offense with Several Top Projected Value Bats

While we don’t find many Braves atop the overall point total projections (PliateIQ) for batters, despite being a top of the board offense by implied run total tonight, we do find several of them atop the point per dollar value projections. In fact, on DraftKings, the top three projected values are all Braves in Alex Dickerson (84 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Travis DeMeritte, who owns a merit for his home run last night, and Adam Duvall (107 wRC+, .266 ISO). This is basically the bottom of the order for the Braves, but they should get some play in a favorable park against Mark Leiter Jr., who has been lit up for nine runs over 7.1 innings with both of his barrels (9.1%) leaving the yard, while he’s struck out seven of 35 batters with six walks. Aside from that, he hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since 2018. This will also give you plenty of room to add Matt Olson (146 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .247 ISO) as well.

We also find several Twins among the top point per dollar projections. Michael Pineda may have escaped two trips through the Yankee order without allowing a run in his first start of the season, but he generated just three swings and misses with a 94.1 mph EV. His K-BB has been riding a downward trend the last few years, which is even more important for him because his Barrels/BBE rate is going in the wrong direction. He posted respectable marks of 14.6% and 8.9% last year, but if it gets any worse, he may lose his usefulness. Projections believe Miguel Sano (106 wRC+, .277 ISO), Nick Gordon (84 wRC+, .140 ISO) and Trevor Larnach (102 wRC+, .129 ISO) to be the best DraftKings values against him, though Luis Arraez (120 wRC+) also costs just $3.2K.

It’s more interesting to find several Yankees and a couple of Astros among the top value projections on FanDuel. Joey Gallo (122 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (82 wRC+, .091 ISO) cost less than $2.5K, while Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .238 ISO) costs less than $3K against Tyler Wells. Kyle Tucker (143 wRC+, .235 ISO) is projected to bat leadoff and costs just $2.7K, the same as Michael Brantley (157 wRC+, .143 ISO), against Glen Otto, who has exhibited a massive platoon split in his small major league sample thus far (LHBs .441 wOBA, .401 xwOBA). Aledmys Diaz (84 wRC+) costs just $2.1K and projects as a top value as well.

Two Offenses Feature Multiple Top Projected Bats Tonight

On an eight game slate with some pitcher friendly weather, we find the Yankees (vs Tyler Wells), Braves (vs Mark Leiter Jr.) and Blue Jays (vs Michael Wacha) atop the board, all around five implied runs with no other offense above four and a half. The Braves are the only one of the three teams not to feature multiple hitters among the top 10 overall projected point totals for batters tonight (PlateIQ). In fact, there are no Braves among that group on either site, while the Yankees and Blue Jays are the only teams to feature multiple batters. Aaron Judge (141 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2021) tops the board on FanDuel by the barest of margins currently. Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .238 ISO) is not too far behind, despite posting just a 64 wRC+ this season overall. Three starts for Tyler Wells this season have covered just eight innings and 39 batters, as it’s been mentioned they aim to hold him to around 100 innings this season. With just a 5.1 K-BB% and 17.9 K-BB%, the quality of the work might do that alone, should it keep up at this pace. One thing to keep in mind here, if we’re going to be seeing a lot of the Baltimore bullpen, is that their 3.23 xFIP this season is currently the fifth best mark in baseball.

The Blue Jays actually post three batters inside the top 10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (172 wRC+, .301 ISO) is essentially tied atop the board with Judge and is joined by George Springer (134 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Bo Bichette (105 wRC+, .169 ISO) in the top 10. Control has been an early issue for Michael Wacha, who’s walked seven of 56 batters. With just an 8.9 K-BB% and marginal contact profile, we’re looking at most estimators in the fours. A 1.88 ERA is the product of a .114 BABIP and 98 LOB%. While he owns a small reverse split since the beginning of last season, batters from either side exceed a .340 xwOBA against him. Zack Collins (114 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (117 wRC+, .196 ISO) each cost less than $3.5K on either site and can help make this stack more affordable.

Potential Value Arms Include Struggling RHP & Under the Rader LHP

Charlie Morton is within $200 of $8K on either site tonight and while that seems cheap, he has struggled in the early going. He owns just a 9.7 K-BB% and 9.0 SwStr% through three starts with a 32.7 GB% that’s 20 points below his career rate. Three of his four barrels (8.2%) have left the yard. He’s still throwing mostly the same arsenal at roughly the same speed, but both his four-seamer (41.8%) and curveball (41%) have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350. Additionally, the Cubs have been better than expected and own a 10.5 BB% vs RHP, along with a 129 wRC+. That said, Morton is essentially tied for the top projection on the board (PlateIQ) with Shohei Ohtani (though that could change) and expected to be a very popular arm, who may be worth fading if those ownership projections (which are also fluid) remain constant.

Another strongly projected pitcher, who costs a bit less than $8K on either site is Jordan Montgomery. He’s currently behind only Morton it terms of point per dollar value projection on either site. It’s pretty hard to produce quality work in Yankee pinstripes under the radar, but that’s just what Montgomery seems to do every year. He has struck out just 11 of 60, but with a 12.3 SwStr% and solid contact management (87.6 mph EV). He’s allowed just a single barrel (2.3%) so far, producing a 2.59 xERA that matches actual results (2.51 ERA). The O’s own a board high 28.9 K% vs LHP this year.

Paul Blackburn doesn’t project very well, but has decided he’d like to be somewhat of a thing this year. While Oakland has capped him at twice through the order and exactly five innings in each of his three starts, the velocity is up a mile per hour (it was up two mph before dropping in his last start, which is something to watch), as he’s struck out 14 of 55 batters with just a single walk. He’s done this while maintaining his 52% career ground ball rate this year. He faces a dangerous lineup, but with a 24.3 K% vs RHP in a negative run environment. Watch the velocity though, because he had just a 3.2 SwStr% with the drop in his last start. He could be an interesting GPP play though.

On the cheaper end on DraftKings, one pitcher stands out. Glen Otto ($6.5K) struck out five of 18 A’s with a 20 SwStr% in his first start and since that’s kind of like facing a AAA team this year, we can note that he’s also struck out nine of 24 AAA batters too this season. Otto produces an 18 K-BB% over 23.1 major league innings last year. With a league average 8.2% Barrels/BBE over his 28.1 innings now, there does seem to be some upside in this young, unheralded arm. It may surprise you to learn the Astros have a 22.9 K% vs RHP this season.

Some Pitcher Friendly Weather Backing A Couple of Top Arms

While the overall quality of pitching may not be as strong as last night on Wednesday’s eight game slate, there are still several viable arms, some of whom may be weather aided in spots like Minnesota and Washington tonight, where it’s cold with inward blowing winds. Both Shohei Ohtani ($10.5K) and Pablo Lopez ($10.4K) eclipse $10K on FanDuel, while no pitcher does so on DraftKings. Joe Ryan is the only other pitcher on the board above $9K on both sites. Michael Wacha costs $9.4K on DraftKings, but might be best to forget we even saw that. Ohtani has struck out 21 of the 39 Astros he’s faced alone. His one bad start was in Texas (six runs over 3.1 innings), though he still struck out five of 20 and has walked just four batters this year. With a 44.1 K% (16.5 SwStr%), his worst estimator is a 2.68 DRA. The Guardians take a lot of pitches and strike out just 21.1% of the time this season against RHP, but Patrick Sandoval ran up nine last night, so it’s far from impossible. Ohtani is essentially tied atop the board, using PlateIQ projecitons, in terms of both overall point total and ownership. Remember though, that these numbers are fluid throughout the day and may change.

Lopez absolutely rolling with a 21.9 K-BB% and while a 0.52 ERA is obviously a fluke (.227 BABIP, 92.3 LOB%), as none of his four Barrels (9.1%) have left the yard, his worst estimator is a 3.01 DRA. The Nationals have a league average strikeout rate, but just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP this season and we already mentioned the weather boost, despite a park downgrade for Lopez here. Lopez does not currently project as a top overall arm tonight, but if that keeps his ownership below 10%, it’s could be a boon for his backers in GPPs tonight.

Ryan has jumped out to a great start in 2022, not only by allowing just three runs over 16 innings, but with a 26.7 K% that could still be on the way up (14.3 SwStr%). He doesn’t generate many ground balls (29.7%), but has managed contact well (87.6 mph EV). Estimators are pretty tightly grouped between a 3.51 xERA and 4.05 xFIP. The Tigers own an 88 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs RHP. Ryan won’t only have the cold weather and winds backing him, but potentially a very favorable umpiring situation as well. Ryan is a top three projected arm on DraftKings, where he’s currently expected to be fairly popular, but much less so on FanDuel.

The start of Orioles-Yankees will be delayed due to rain Tuesday

Game update: The start of Orioles-Yankees will be delayed due to rain Tuesday

Kris Bryant (back) scratched Tuesday

Kris Bryant (back) scratched Tuesday

Potential Leverage Spot in Lineup That Includes Two Top Bats

Early stacking numbers are available on LineupHQ and, as expected, with a team run total (now 5.99) so far above any other offense, the Dodgers are projected to be the most popular stack on either site and it’s not particularly close. On DraftKIngs, the Yankees are the only other team to hit double digits, although a few more do so on FanDuel. Smash simulations also have the Dodgers winning the punishing the slate 12.8% of the time with no other offense reaching nine percent on either site. The Royals project as a top Value stack on either site, against Dallas Keuchel, who allowed 10 of the 17 Guardians he faced in his last start to score. Leverage projections, currently find four teams above 5.0 on DraftKings with none reaching that high on FanDuel.

The highest Leverage ratio on either site belongs to the Orioles right now (these numbers are fluid and can change throughout the day), who also currently top the Value% projections on DraftKings. Luis Severino is a tough assignment and the Yankees have a top bullpen, but if we can play some small sample ball, LHBs do have a .412 wOBA & .389 xwOBA since he returned last year. Of the four LHBs projected to be in the Baltimore lineup tonight, only Cedric Mullins (144 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Anthony Santander (101 wRC+, .213 ISO) can even be called competent. Boston has a nice Leverage ratio as well and some stronger bats, but going against Kevin Gausman (20.7 SwStr%, 60.3 O-Swing%, 30.1 K-BB%) with a struggling offense seems almost suicidal right now, but it could win the slate if it hits. Batters from either side are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Gausman since last year.

It’s not like there are no positive leverage spots worth attacking though. Josiah Gray has generated just 22.6% of his contact on the ground with a 90.9 mph EV. Just two of four barrels (12.5%) have left the yard, while he’s also walked seven of 58 batters. Batters from either side are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him since he was called up last year and Miami bats are generally cheap tonight. Tigers have a healthy Leverage ratio on either site, while same-handed batters own a .369 wOBA against Chris Paddack since last season. Spencer Torkelson (135 wRC+, .188 ISO) has adjusted well to RHP at the major league level, while Javier Baez (103 wRC+, .215 ISO) retains his pop against same-handed pitching. The biggest negative here is that temperatures will be in the 40s.

The Mets and Angels have much better Leverage ratios on DraftKings. Triston McKenzie has been known to walk a few and can occasionally struggle with contact. He’s only allowed one barrel (3.8%) this year, which stayed in the yard, but has averaged a 90 mph EV with just a 37.5 GB%. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout own top of the board projections and will likely garner heavy ownership on most slates, but the Angels do have some productive youngsters in the lineup too: Brandon Marsh (123 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since LY), Jared Walsh (161 wRC+, .244 ISO), Taylor Ward (120 wRC+, .238 ISO & two HRs last night).

Jordan Hicks throws hard and has held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, pitching mostly in a negative run environment. However, he’s done so in a relief role up until this point. He struck out three of the 12 batters he faced in his first start over 46 pitches and probably won’t go much beyond four innings tonight. The Cardinals exhausted the top of their bullpen in a five run ninth that cost them the game last night. Overall, the pen has a mediocre 3.59 FIP and 3.65 xFIP this year. Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar and Jeff McNeil all exceed a 150 wRC+ this season overall. Robinson Cano and James McCann are the only batters in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season.