DFS Alerts

Lester gets Cubs home opener vs Reds

It’s going to be cool (low to mid 40s) with potentially a light wind blowing in from left in Chicago tonight. Jon Lester shouldn’t need much help with Cincinnati having one of the lowest projected run lines per our Vegas Odds page tonight (3.41 runs). He’s one of the top pitchers on the board tonight and possibly the most trustworthy as well. He held batters from both sides to a sub-.300 wOBA. Joey Votto does crush LHP (173 wRC+ since last season) and Eugenio Suarez has big numbers (159 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) in a small sample. Lester is the only confident play here though.

Cosart faces cold Mets lineup

There’s really not much to reach for in this matchup. When he’s on, Cosart throws a lot of ground balls (2.08 GB/FB career), using his fastball 70% of the time to generate weak contact (4.5 Hard-Soft% career), but doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses, striking out four or less in 10 of 13 starts with a high of six last season. The Mets do have a few bats that hit RHP well. Cespedes, Granderson, and Conforto all have a wRC+ between 140-150 against them since last season, but Cosart had a bit of a reverse split (.342 wOBA vs RHBs, .319 wOBA vs LHB) last year. With Wright the only Met to come out hitting (178 wRC+ L7 days), there’s not much to like that much aside from Cespedes on either side.

Zobrist bats 5th, Bryant 3rd against Finnegan

Brandon Finnegan is an interesting lefty tonight in that there isn’t a lot of upside beyond the top of the board tonight. The Cubs have struggled against LHP since last season, striking out 26.2% against them last year. Finnegan induced 13 SwStrs in 86 pitches in his 2016 debut with eight of those coming on a 94 mph fastball. There is some upside here near the bottom of the board, but also a lot of risk. Our weather page has temperatures in the mid to low 40s with a light wind coming in from left field, which could be a small bonus for the pitchers. While Finnegan deserves some GPP consideration, due to his issues with the long ball (20.5 HR/FB), you’re going to want some exposure to the Cubs in lineups without him. Dexter Fowler has a 146 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, while Anthony Rizzo pounds same handed hurlers for a 142 wRC+, .187 ISO over the same period. Ben Zobrist leads the lineup with a 154 wRC+, .178 ISO vs LHP since 2015 though. Kris Bryant hits lefties at about an average rate (112 wRC+), but a lot of power (.200 ISO).

Twins-White Sox game filled with uncertainty

Jose Quintana is always a tricky pitcher to predict – he can show great upside like his 7K performance against the A’s in his first start, or he can get shelled. While not a top option today, he’s definitely worth a GPP flyer against the Twins. For the Twins, Kyle Gibson is the favorite to get the win but his K upside isn’t the same as Quintana’s. Bats to target from the two teams include Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, and Todd Frazier for the White Sox and Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe, and Brian Dozier for the Twins.

Michael Wacha looks to bounce back against struggling Brewers

Michael Wacha got shelled in his first game but has a great opportunity to bounce back against a Brewers team that just isn’t that good. The Brewers have the lowest team total on the board and Wacha is an excellent pivot off of David Price on one SP sites and a great anchor on two SP sites. Ryan Braun is the only bat worth looking at on Milwaukee and at his price tag, he’s not really a viable option. Taylor Jungmann takes the mound for the Brewers and Matt Carpenter and the red-hot Jeremy Hazelbaker are the two top players in the Cardinals offense to target. Matt Holliday and Stephen Piscotty are good adds if you are looking to make a Cardinals stack.

Aaron Nola could be sneaky option at SP today

The Padres-Phillies game has the lowest total of the afternoon slate (tied with the Brewers-Cardinals game) and coming off a strong first start and facing an inept Padres lineup, Aaron Nola makes for an intriguing option at SP today. He is somewhat vulnerable to LH bats (.338 wOBA allowed) so you could target Jon Jay and Cory Spangenberg but those two don’t have much upside even in a positive match up. Padres SP Andrew Cashner also has a problem getting lefties out, even more so than Nola as he has given up a .384 wOBA to them since last season. The top five in the Phillies lineup are decent options for stacking with Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and Ryan Howard your top three options.

RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth is optimistic about MLB weather today as he does not foresee any postponements taking place today. He does have MIL@STL as Yellow but thinks there should not be any issues with that game being able to take place. Make sure to check out the RG forums for the full forecast and for updates from Roth throughout the day.

The Red Sox (bats and pitcher) are top options for this afternoon slate

Yovani Gallardo only had a 15.4 K% last season, a sure recipe for disaster against a powerful Red Sox lineup that has the highest Vegas total of the early slate. Mookie Betts and David Ortiz are two of the top options to target and if you’re looking to stack Boston, any of the bats in the top seven of the order are viable, especially Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez. David Price takes the mound for the Red Sox and he’s the chalk option at SP this afternoon, especially facing an Orioles lineup that is still without Adam Jones. Mark Trumbo and his .371 wOBA vs LHP and Manny Machado are in play for the Orioles but outside of those two, you’re probably best to look elsewhere.

Pirates-Tigers game should be high scoring affair

Vegas has the over/under for this game set at 9 which is a bit high considering Justin Verlander is on the mound but the bookmakers generally have a good idea of what they are talking about so it’s something we need to pay attention to. The Tigers crush left-handed pitchers (2nd highest wOBA against them since start of 2015 season) so Pirates starter Jon Niese could be in for a long day (or very short if you think about it). Verlander, on the other hand, has actually fared better against left-handed bats the last three seasons so we’re ok targeting the Pirates big right handed sluggers, Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte, today. John Jaso and his .360+ wOBA vs RHP is also in play leading off. For the Tigers, the top 7 of the batting order are all in play with Miguel Cabrera the top option followed closely by Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Victor Martinez. Kinsler’s .366 wOBA against LHP is the lowest of that group.

Get any Tigers and Yankees out of your lineups if you have late swap. The game has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Hanser Alberto, Bryan Holiday getting the spot starts for Rougned Odor and Chirinos

Jeff Banister has rested his players on occasion this year and he will give Odor a breather on Sunday. In addition to Odor, Robinson Chirinos fractured his forearm and will head to the DL. Bryan Holaday will start at catcher for Texas.

Angels going with a right-handed heavy lineup versus Perez

Martin Perez is an average pitcher against right-handed batters, owning a 0.336 wOBA against RHBs. The Angels are stacking righties in the lineup today with Craig Gentry batting second in between Yunel Escobar and Mike Trout.

The White Sox and Indians game has been postponed and will be made up in May.

Kelby Tomlinson is playing 2nd base against Scott Kazmir, Panik sitting

Kazmir is a southpaw, so the Giants will bat Kelby Tomlinson 7th and leave Joe Panik on the bench.

Ben Zobrist will be the leadoff hitter for the Cubs with Dexter Fowler getting to rest on Sunday

Zobrist is in an above average matchup, facing Shelby Miller who has given up a generous 3 homeruns already this season.