DFS Alerts

Pitching should dominated Dbacks-Dodgers game today

The Arizona-Dodgers game has a low total of seven today with the Dodgers a reasonable favorite at their home park. Kenta Maeda takes the mound for the Dodgers coming off six shutout innings in the season opener. There’s not much MLB data to work with but his track record speaks for himself and Japanese pitchers have shown they are more than capable of making the transition, especially for the Dodgers. He is reasonably priced and an attractive SP option, especially for the early slates. Many expect big things for Dbacks pitcher, Patrick Corbin, this season and he pitched good but not great in his first outing giving up four runs in seven innings while striking out six. The Dodgers have some bats that can mash LHP though so while the potential might be there this probably isn’t the spot to take him. Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner are your top Dodger hitting options while your usual Dbacks core of Goldschmidt and Peralta are the two to target if you decide to look to Arizona for some contrarian hitting options.

Juan Nicasio could be interesting SP option today against Tigers

It appears as if Juan Nicasio has experienced a rebirth in Pittsburgh after a strong spring and first start and while he probably won’t see more than 100 pitches, he could be a compelling option going against a Tigers lineup that is dominated by RH bats. Nicasio has struggled in the past against lefties but only Anthony Gose and the switch-hitting combo Victor Martinez and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are in the lineup for the Tigers today. Last season in 42 2/3 innings against RH bats, Nicasio gave up a .277 wOBA but perhaps more importantly he struck out 49 and gave up only one home run. Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez has trended towards a reverse-splits type of pitcher the last two seasons giving up a .368 wOBA to RH bats last season as opposed to a .297 wOBA against LH bats. This puts the two through five bats of McCutchen, Freese, Marte, and Cervelli squarely in play. Sanchez is favored to get the win but he’s someone to avoid unless you’re just playing the small two game afternoon slate.

Kevin has sent in a rare late update on the game in NY between the Mets and Marlins saying that he is increasingly concerned about rain chances in this game, but still has it coded Yellow/Orange. Read the latest in our forum at the link below

Sonny Gray should be worth his price against Angels

With Sonny Gray, the performance doesn’t always far exceed the cost. He misses bats at an average rate and did exactly that in his first start (9 swings and misses). He excels at spotting his pitches and generating weak contact in a great park and that’s worth something too, especially at a reasonable cost (below $10K) on a six game slate. Gray is a fine pick with a reasonable floor for cash games as long as you’re not expecting double digit strikeouts. The Angels run the usual suspects out there against him, but there’s not a lot of upside in attacking Gray with bats either (1.95 GB/FB, 6.5 career Hard-Soft%), who has an identical .260 wOBA allowed to batters from each side since last season.

Kevin's forecast has been update for the night games

Kevin Roth has updated his forecast for the night games, which you can find on our Weather Page linked below. It looks like the only game with a slight chance of a rain delay is MIA/NYY. It’ll be cold in the CIN@CHC game and there are strong wind gusts out to center in the ATL@WAS game. Like Bryce Harper needs the help.

Mariners stack LHBs vs Colby Lewis

Don’t be fooled by the Win/Loss record, Colby Lewis gave up a lot of hard contact last season (19.7 Hard-Soft%) and has done so throughout his career (15.1 Hard-Soft%). The park in Seattle tempers expectations slightly, but this is a lineup that should punish bad RHPs. Everyone aside from Iannetta and Martin are well above average hitters vs RHP. Aoki is only at a 108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but has a coveted spot atop the lineup. Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, and Nelson Cruz all have a wRC+ above 125 against RHP since last season and are all off to hot starts (150+ wRC+ over last week).

DeShields sits, rookie Mazara bats 2nd in Seattle

Hisashi Iwakuma sent off alarm bells when the Dodgers backed out of a deal this off-season due to sketchy medicals. Seattle was unworried and welcomed him back, but perhaps they should have been more cautious. Iwakuma had just six swinging strikes against this same Texas lineup last week and exhibited a 2.5 mph drop in velocity off of last year’s average down to 86.4 mph. This is not a pitcher we want to pay nearly $10K for tonight. The park should still benefit him, but he allowed HRs at higher than a league avearge rate at home last season (16.4 HR/FB). Take a good look at all of the Texas lefties including Odor (101 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) and the possibly under-priced top prospect Mazara in the top two spots, while Fielder (144 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Moreland (127 wRC+, .226 ISO) supply potential power.

Tropeano potential value play on the mound tonight

Nick Tropeano is the lowest priced pitcher on both major sites tonight on a board where there’s not a lot of upside past the big dogs up top. However modest the arsenal, Tropeano has managed to accumulate an above average rate of strikeouts both in the minors as well as his 60 major league innings (20.2 K%). His issue through the minors has been HRs, but that hasn’t shown up in the majors yet, perhaps due to his spacious home park. Although his 2.7 HR/FB won’t stay that low for long, he may be able to take advantage of a weak lineup in another great park in Oaklannd tonight and is definitely worth a look, especially on two pitcher sites. On the other end, the middle of the order is solid, but not over-powering against RHP, led by Josh Reddick (131 wRC+ since last season) and Stephen Vogt (122 wRC+). Danny Valencia (136 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP) and Mark Canha (125 wRC+, .214 ISO) have exhibited reverse platoon splits since the start of last season.

McHugh struggled in first outing, Royals don't swing and miss

Despite the great tweet linked below from Mark Simon about Jason Castro being the 2nd best framing catcher so far this year, it may not do him much good against an offense that excels at jumping on pitchers early in the count and putting them into play. In addition, Collin McHugh greatly struggled in his first outing, getting just one out and exiting after seven batters in New York. Normally not a hard thrower who leans on his fastball anyway, he averaged just under 90 mph in the outing and might be an early area of concern. Mike Moustakas (224 wRC+ over the last week) is the hottest Royal, while Eric Hosmer (138 wRC+) and Kendrys Morales (144 wRC+) both spanked RHP over the last year, but McHugh has had a bit of a reverse platoon split (.329 wOBA vs RHBs, .291 wOBA vs LHBs) since last season. Lorenzo Cain (110 wRC+ since 2015) is the top RHB vs RHP in the lineup.

Marco Belinelli (ankle) and Omri Casspi (hamstring) continue to be out

The Kings will continue to be without their top bench scorers on Monday. They will only have 10 available players making James Anderson and Caron Butler valuable off the bench. Anderson has the higher upside but also did not play well in his last game. Anderson has proven that he is not a huge scoring threat thus limiting his upside. Anderson still has some appeal due to the matchup but there are other value options available in this game. With nine games on the slate, Butler lacks the upside needed to win a GPP.

Tyler White in five spot against Chris Young

Chris Young might occasionally be interesting at home, but as an extreme fly ball pitcher who excels at generating pop ups and consistently beating his ERA estimators, we probably want to stay away from him in some of the tougher parks. He travels to Houston tonight in a park that plays well for power hitters to face a lineup with a lot of it in the Astros. Young has dominated RHBs (.238 wOBA) since last season, but is more average (.318) vs LHBs. Preston Tucker bats down in the order, but has a 323 wRC+ over the last week and a 130 wRC+, .262 ISO against RHP in his career. Colby Rasmus hits cleanup and has a .252 ISO vs RHP since last season. Houston has the top projected run total tonight (4.54) according to our Vegas Odds page, so despite Young’s prowess vs RHBs, it’s probably worth including some near the top of the order in your lineups tonight. The red hot rookie Tyler White (.387 wRC+ over the last week) moves up the lineup to the five spot.

Felix Doubront to have Tommy John surgery

Felix Doubront is slated to have Tommy John surgery according to Rotoworld. He was slated to start the season as the 5th starter for the Athletics, who now may turn to Jesse Hahn. For DFS players, it’s perhaps more of a loss from an offensive standpoint as RHBs slammed him for a .382 wOBA last season.

Marlins facing off with LH Steven Matz in New York

Matz will make his season debut tonight at home against the Marlins, a match-up he should be able to take advantage of if he can steer clear of Giancarlo Stanton’s bat. We don’t have much data to go off of with Matz, but he got off to a very nice start after being called up last season and is expected to have a very nice year alongside an elite Mets rotation. He handled both right and left handed bats well last season (albeit in a very small sample size) and pitching at home in New York (where temperature are down considerably compared to Miami) also helps to keep his floor and ceiling a bit higher. Giancarlo Stanton is always in play against left-handed pitching (he hit 9 HRs in just 59 ABs against LHs last season, good for a ridiculous .525 ISO), but he’s a better target in tournaments with Bryce Harper in the much better match-up.

Scherzer looks to mow down Braves again

Max Scherzer perhaps didn’t reach his ceiling, but his seven Ks and two ERs in seven innings against the Braves in his first start wasn’t too bad either as he generated 16 swings and misses. He did allow two HRs and that’s the risk with the most expensive pitcher on the board. If you’re planning to roster him on two pitcher sites, you may have to go cheap on your 2nd pitcher at a $13.1K price tag, but he combines tonight’s highest ceiling with it’s highest floor. Use him as salary permits. The Braves debut Mallex Smith in the leadoff spot, but you’re asking for trouble rostering any offensive players here. Scherzer has held RHBs to a .233 wOBA since last season with LHBs faring exactly 50 points higher.

Nats stack up against Norris again

Bud Norris was fairly successful in his Atlanta debut against these Nats last week, but he missed few bats (5.1 SwStr%) and not much under the hood looked different. This all leads to the Washington bats being in a very coveted situation tonight. No less than four bats (Murphy, Rasmos, Espinosa, Werth) in tonight’s lineup have at least a 99 mph exit velocity against Norris in 15 PAs or more. Bryce Harper only has six looks with a 103.9 mph exit velocity. Norris has allowed a .360+ wOBA to batters from both sides since last season. Bryce Harper has a .211 wRC+, 3.62 ISO against RHP since last year. Stack your Nats confidently all the way through tonight.