DFS Alerts

Weather Creates Potential Issues With High End Pitching

The prevailing theme to tonight’s nine game slate is weather. And not the favorable kind either. We’re already down one game in Washington, while Kevin has also labelled the game between the Giants and Mets in New York and Rays and Cubs in Chicago as potentially troublesome. This is a major disappointment because it likely takes Alex Cobb, Tylor Megill and Shane McClanahan, all velocity increasers who have looked dominant in early starts, off the board. The lone $10K pitcher tonight on either and both sites is Clayton Kershaw. You may remember that the evil, moustache twirling Dave Roberts intentionally broke baseball when you removed Kershaw from a perfect game with just 80 pitches after seven innings last week. He struck out 13 of the 21 Twins he faced with a 23.8 SwStr% and just a 78.8 mph EV on eight batted balls. In 22 starts last year, Kershaw produced a 25.2 K-BB% and allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE. Of course, the problem in recent years has been staying off the IL, as he has a two year rolling SIERA of just 3.03. The projected Atlanta lineup the Dodgers will host includes five batters with a .315 or lower wOBA against LHP since last season, but not a ton of strikeouts and we have to be concerned with Kershaw’s workload again. Of course, if he repeats his effort against the Twins, neither cost, nor workload will be a factor. None the less, he would seem a risky roster. While he is projected neither for the most fantasy points (PlateIQ), nor highest ownership, he is top four on either site in both categories.

Aaron Nola, Sean Manaea and Tylor Megill reach the $9K price point on both sites. Nola struck out seven of the 23 A’s he faced without a walk, but allowed two home runs. He came back against the Mets to strike out five of 17, but with three walks and two hit batsmen. Now he has to pitch at Coors. Although 59.1% of his contact has been on the ground, he’s still allowed three home runs on four barrels (18.2%). The Philadelphia defense probably isn’t going to help him (though they rate as a top team in Outs Above Average through a week and a half), but Nola also has to help himself first. While there are several pitchers projected to have better nights, ownership expectations are nearly zero.

Manaea has pitched 13 quality innings for his new team, striking out 13 of 45 batters (11.5 SwStr%) with just three walks. His lone barrel allowed stayed in the yard. Manaea is looking to build on a career best 20.3 K-BB% (21.1% in just 29.2 innings in 2019) last year. He has a solid two year rolling SIERA of just 3.73. He’s a keeper at home against the Reds (50 wRC+ last seven days, 48 wRC+ vs LHP so far), but everyone knows it. Megill has struck out 11 of 36 batters (16 SwStr%) with a 52.2 GB% and just a single barrel (4%). He has not issued a walk yet. In addition to a nearly two mph velocity spike as well, the shape of his secondary pitches have changed too, resulting in all around improvement. Ownership projections are low against a quality lineup, but one that offers a ton of strikeouts in a pitcher friendly park, but again…weather.

Frankie Montas is $9.9K on FanDuel, but just $7.3K on DK, where he’s easily the top value. In fact, he’s tonight’s top projected pitcher overall, but also the top projected ownership rate. Montas has struck out 12 of 47 batters (16 SwStr%) with just a single walk through two starts (at Rays and at Phillies). He looks to continue building on a fantastic season last year, in which he had a 19.3 K-BB% with estimators below four. The A’s face the Orioles in their home debut. Luis Garcia is nearly $3K less on FanDuel ($6.7K). He was pulled after 16 batters (71 pitches in his first start), walking two Diamondbacks with just a single strikeout (5.6 SwStr%). The good news is that he was up a mile and a half per hour on his fastball (94.8) in Arizona. He’ll also face a projected Angels’ lineup that includes just one batter below a 24.5 K% vs RHP since last season and omits Mike Trout. Shane McClanahan costs $9.2K on FD ($8.1K DK). He’s struck out 15 of 38 batters (18.3 SwStr%), but also walked five, failing to get through five innings in either start, despite facing 19 batters in each. Statcast suggests his velocity is up nearly a mph on his four-seamer this year (97.3). McClanahan did have some barrel issues last year (10.7%), but was otherwise fantastic (20.1 K-BB%) and may be even better this year. However, again,…weather. If they do get it in, it’ll be near freezing, but with a strong wind blowing out to RF.

White Sox-Guardians postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Game update: White Sox-Guardians postponed Monday due to inclement weather

Diamondbacks-Nationals postponed due to inclement weather Monday

Game Update: Diamondbacks-Nationals postponed due to inclement weather Monday

Tigers-Royals postponed due to inclement weather Sunday

Game update: Tigers-Royals postponed due to inclement weather Sunday

Brad Miller (back) scratched Saturday

Brad Miller (back) scratched Saturday

Top Prospect With a Wild Streak Could Be One to Stack Against

If all you’re concerned about is the probability of “smashing” the slate, then the Yankees are your best bet, as the only team that projects above a 10 Smash% in PlateIQ simulations. Kansas City is an overwhelming Value stack on DK (19.3%) currently, while San Francisco, Texas and Detroit are showing stacking value on FanDuel. Getting into Leverage projections, which means we’re looking for the lowest ownership with the best probability of going off, we again find San Francisco along with Atlanta as solid options on FanDuel, while Atlanta (again) and Houston project strong leverage possibilities on DK.

The Giants are in Cleveland tonight, against Zach Plesac. It’s a very strikeout prone, but productive projected lineup against a pitcher whom batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA within six points of .320 against since last year. In fact, not a single batter expected to be in tonight’s lineup drops below a 97 wRC+ or .186 ISO against RHP since last year. Led by Brandon Belt (170 wRC+, .348 ISO vs RHP since 2021) as the only Giant above $3K on FanDuel, an affordable San Francisco stack could certainly take down a GPP tonight.

Atlanta faces a top prospect making his debut in pitcher friendly environment in San Diego. Mackenzie Gore struck out seven of 16 in his first start at AAA this season, but lost some of his luster last season (6.3 K-BB% in six AAA starts). There is some polarization around him as a prospect and ZIPs projections currently see him as a pitcher with a four and a half ERA this season. This is a pitcher Atlanta could have their way with if he carries his wild streak with him to the majors tonight. The Braves have, inexplicably, had their issues with LHP the last few years, despite running with a predominantly RH lineup most nights. The exceptions to that have been Ozzie Albies (146 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since LY) and Travis d’Arnaud (149 wRC+, .167 ISO). Dansby Swanson (90 wRC+ .219 ISO) and Austin Riley (99 wRC+, .152 ISO) could do some damage as well.

Projections Suggest Top Bats Out West, Value in Kansas City Tonight

Score one for the DraftKings pricing algorithm, which made Coors bats very affordable in a game that featured just seven runs scored yesterday. Prices have only increased slightly and are much more justifiable in a matchup of solid ground ball pitchers (Stroman vs Marquez) tonight. In fact, our simulations project either team to “Smash” less than five percent of the team, which is actually where stack ownership percentages are as well on either site. Perhaps this is the day to actually roster Coors bats if they’re going to be so low-owned, but lineups the PlateIQ projections really like the two teams from LA tonight. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout have top three overall projections on either site, which generally makes sense no matter who they’re facing, which happens to be the Texas bullpen in our first bullpen game of the year tonight. Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the only one who breaks up those teammates. LHBs have a .357 wOBA against Vladimir Gutierrez in his career. While the Angels are on the road in Texas, which could play more hitter friendly again if the roof is open, the Dodgers are at home, in a park that has played more hitter friendly in recent years. Mookie Betts (128 wRC+, .215 ISO), Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .163 ISO) and Max Muncy (131 wRC+, .269 ISO) join Freeman as top 10 overall projected bats.

Should you be paying up for high end pitching and are seeking more value bats, PlateIQ projections may direct you to towards the game in Kansas City. Victor Reyes (63 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP since LY) is expected to lead off again against Brad Keller (LHBs .350 wOBA, .370 xwOBA since 2021) and costs $2.5K or less. He’s off to a strong start with an overall 142 wRC+ this year and is currently a top two projected value on either site. Bobby Witt Jr. joins him on DraftKings despite just a 19 wRC+ so far this year. A $2.4K price tag is still simply too low. Hunter Dozier (79 wRC+, .131 ISO) is also a top five projected value on DK and Carlos Santana (95 wRC+, .091 ISO) on FD. While their numbers are not strong against LHP, RHBs do have a .346 wOBA, .375 xwOBA against the home run prone Tarik Skubal since last year. Of course, the big expensive bat, Sal Perez, has mashed LHP (163 wRC+, .349 ISO) since the start of last season. One bit of concern might be that the winds are blowing in from LF in KC tonight, which could suppress both power and run scoring a bit more than usual according to Weather Edge.

Lefty Mashing Offense Facing HR Prone Lefty

Six teams either reach or exceed a five run total on Friday night and only one of them is playing at Coors, which makes some sense in a solid pitching matchup. In fact, the Rockies are only fourth on the board at 5.15 implied runs. The Dodgers, Blue Jays and Yankees all exceed that mark, but the Houston Astros sit merely in the middle of the board at 4.35. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, walking two and striking out just a single batter with a 4.9 SwStr%. He has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. Gonzales has also had his struggles with this Houston team that had a 117 wRC+ vs LHP last year. In 156 career PAs, current Astros have a career .368 xwOBA against him. You won’t find many Astros with high projected ownership rates today, despite the .358 wOBA RHBs have against Gonzales since last season. He’s been much better against LHBs (.250), but Statcast jumps that number over 100 points (.363 xwOBA). Seattle is a pitcher’s park, but added a humidor recently, which could boost offense. Two of the three projected LH Houston bats tonight (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since last season. Among RHBs, Yuli Gurriel (151 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the only one who can say the same, though Jose Altuve (118 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Alex Bregman (123 wRC+, .118 ISO) have been proficient as well. The latter is off to a hot start with a 180 wRC+ overall this year.

Favorable Conditions Could Suppress This Pitcher's HR Issues

The middle of the board on an 11 game slate features some viable, if not extremely exciting arms. German Marquez allowed the Dodgers just a single run, striking out five of 24 at Coors in his first start of the season. A 15.0 K-BB%, 51.8 GB% and 5.8% Barrels/BBE since the start of last year have produced estimators that are all at least one quarter of a run below his 4.28 ERA over that span. He’s cheap enough to be usable with four in the projected Cubs lineup above a 28 K% vs RHP since 2021. Ownership projections are below five percent currently.

A knee issue limited Jordan Montgomery to just 58 pitches and 17 batters in his first start, but he’s been proclaimed fit to go in Baltimore. Possibly one of the more under-rated pitchers in the game, Montgomery has produced a 16.8 K-BB% since last year with a somewhat average contact profile, making him an above average pitcher with a 3.92 ERA that’s within a quarter run of all estimators. While the Orioles sent the left field wall back and up partially due to these Yankees, Montgomery should benefit greatly from this as well. Workload could be an issue here though, as he does cost more than $8K.

Tarik Skubal was a strikeout monster in the minors, but struggled both in that area and with home runs upon reaching the majors. He did seem to figure out around mid-season last year, but also seemed to taper off again near the end, which is understandable for a young pitcher. He struggled through a tough assignment first time out this year, striking out just three of 20 White Sox with a 31.3 GB% and two barrels allowed, though neither left he park. Skubal has estimators ranging from a 3.92 SIERA to a 5.51 xERA since the start of last season. The interesting thing here though, is that Kansas City is already a power suppressing park and while Skubal will be facing a predominantly RH lineup, the wind is blowing in from LF today and should suppress RH power even more. This could be a major boost for Skubal. The projected Kansas City lineup includes three players above a 27 K% vs LHP since last season.

You’re Hail Mary secondary lottery tickets on DK include the following. Kyle Wright ($6.7K) impressively struck out six of 21 Reds with a 15.8 SwStr% first time out without allowing a barrel (14 batted balls). Last year, six of the 20 batted balls against him were barrels. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego, though the Padres smashed Charlie Morton last night. Reid Detmers is the top prospect for the Angels according to Fangraphs (50 Future Value), but as more of a plug and play major league ready back end starter than a higher upside type. He was impressive in 54 AA innings last year (43.1 K%), but has just a 7.7 K-BB% over 24.2 major league innings with 10 barrels allowed (12.5%). He costs $6.3K in Texas, another team that blew up on a great pitcher last night. Zach Plesac’s ($6.5K) posted one season of a 27.7 K%, but no others above 18.5%. Since the start of last season, all estimators are above his 4.49 ERA, though an 11.3 SwStr% certainly suggests something better than the 16.7 K% he’s posted over that time. The Giants are certainly not an easy matchup, but the projected lineup does include six batters with at least a 24.9 K% vs RHP since last season.

The Breakout Arm Projected For Low Ownership on Friday

Friday night’s slate features 11 games and three pitchers reaching the $10K mark, though none on both sites. Dylan Cease ($10.2K DK) is the most expensive arm on the board with a $500 price differential. He’s currently projected for the third highest point total on either site (Plate IQ), but also much lower ownership than the two pitchers above him. After striking out eight of 20 Tigers (13.9 SwStr%) in his first start, Cease has now published a 32.1 K% since the start of 2021, which helps diminish a 9.8 BB% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. A 3.85 ERA is above, but within half a run of all his estimators. It’s certainly not an easy matchup, hosting the Rays, but five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. If ownership projections are accurate and don’t change much, Cease is a great contrarian play tonight.

FanDuel’s most expensive arm is Carlos Rodon ($10.1K) with just a $300 differential. He gets both the top overall point projection and the highest ownership on in LineupHQ currently. Rodon struck out 12 of 20 Marlins in his San Francisco debut with a 23.6 SwStr%. He also averaged over 97 mph on his fastball. We can, at least temporarily, put to bed any concerns about his shoulder from last season. A 3.08 xFIP is his worst estimator since the start of last season by nearly a quarter of a run. He’ll face a familiar foe in Cleveland tonight. The Guardians have a 177 wRC+ over the last week that’s highest in the majors, though that’s mostly due to a single outburst. They did have a 99 wRC+ vs LHP last year though and only have three players in the projected lineup exceeding a 20 K% vs LHP since last year. While not advocating entirely abandoning Rodon, as he may just be the top arm on the board, there may be enough to consider coming in under-weight on him in GPPs.

Freddy Peralta costs exactly $10K on DK and just $100 less on FD. Naturally, he is the number two pitcher in our projections in terms of point total and ownership. Peralta struck out six of 18 Cubs in his first outing, but also walked four. He did experience control issues at times last year, but walked two or fewer in each of his last 11 starts last year. Peralta does have a 10% walk rate since the start of last season, but also a 33.6 K% and 86.6 mph EV, allowing just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. Estimators range from a 2.72 xERA to a 3.67 xFIP over this span. Those 18 batters cost him 88 pitches in Chicago, so he should be ready for a full workload here. The Cardinals had just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP last year with a mix of high, low and average strikeout rates in projected lineup. You should probably have some Freddy in your GPP builds and he’s likely fine for cash games too.

The three remaining pitchers to reach the $9K price point on either site (again, none on both) are a bit mind-boggling. Brad Keller struck out five of 19 Guardians with a 13 SwStr%., but has never struck out 20% in a season. He didn’t allow a barrel in that first start either, after generating one on 10.6% of contact last year. Keller does keep half his contact on the ground (51 career GB%), though his best estimator since the start of 2021 is a still just a 4.48 xFIP. A $9.4K tag on FD ($7K DK) is quite the stretch. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, striking out just a single batter and has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. He costs $9.3K on DK against Houston (117 wRC+ vs LHP LY). Marcus Stroman could effectively keep the ball on the ground at Coors, but had a career high 21.6 K% last year. That’s not enough for a $9K (DK) price tag at Coors. If you’re paying up for pitchers tonight, stick to the very top of the board.

Javier Báez (thumb) scratched Thursday

Javier Báez (thumb) scratched Thursday

The start of Blue Jays-Yankees will be delayed due to rain Thursday

Game update: The start of Blue Jays-Yankees will be delayed due to rain Thursday

Dee Strange-Gordon scratched Thursday

Dee Strange-Gordon scratched Thursday

One Spot That May Be Worth Attacking Quality Pitchers

We already know that Coors is a near impossible fade, given DraftKings pricing tonight, but GPPs aren’t won by having the same lineup as everyone else. In fact, our Stacks tool in LineupHQ currently projects any Coors stacks as having massively negative leverage as both teams currently project for more than 15% ownership stack-wise. The first point of interest is that neither of those teams tops the Smash% standings in simulations tonight. That honor currently belongs to the Dodgers, though they also have a negative Leverage number currently (although, that could change). Looking at some of the best leverage projections means we’d have to attack some top pitchers tonight. The Reds currently have one of the top Value projections and the top Leverage number, but that means a team with the worst wRC+ on the board for the season would have to pound Walker Buehler and the Dodger bullpen. That may be too unlikely to happen. Another option is both teams in San Diego. You’re dealing with two quality pitchers (Morton, Musgrove) in a negative run environment, but two capable offenses. That’s only slightly more interesting. The Rangers have a strong Leverage number, but weak Smash% and Value% projections. There’s a chance Shohei Ohtani could start walking batters again.

Yankee Stadium may have the most interesting numbers though. Luis Severino is facing Kevin Gausman and both pitchers gave their fans plenty to be enthusiastic about in their first starts. However, this is probably the most hitter friendly park on the slate outside Coors with some favorable weather and winds blowing out to RF. Gausman has a wOBA below .270 against batters from either side of the plate since last year, but Statcast pushes that up by 20-30 points (RHBs .287 xwOBA, LHBs .297). That’s still well below the league average, but this lineup is loaded with mashers. Anthony Rizzo (107 wRC+), Aaron Judge (141 wRC+), Giancarlo Stanton (134 wRC+) and Joey Gallo (127 wRC+) all exceed a .210 ISO vs RHP since 2021. The biggest problem here is that this is going to be an expensive stack on DK (less so on FD), though cheaper pitcher pricing will help you get there.

The other side may be more interesting. Much of the concern the Yankees may have had for Severino, making just his fourth start since 2018, evaporated when his fastball averaged 98 mph over three innings. He struck out five of the 14 Red Sox he faced with five of nine batted balls on the ground. However, two of the remaining four batted balls were barrels and he generated just a 7.7 SwStr%. He also threw just 65 pitches. That means we’re likely to see a lot of bullpen here. Though with the Yankees, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Yet, we’re unlikely to see their highest leverage relievers in the middle of the game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (175 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP since last season) homered three times on a day when he has to get stitches in his finger yesterday. George Springer (141 wRC+, .300 ISO) really has been worth the money when on the field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (108 wRC+, .190 ISO) is much cheaper and expected to hit cleanup with Teoscar Hernandez projected out.

This Cheap Stack Could Be Your Answer on FanDuel

While DK pricing makes Coors the easy answer to most questions tonight, let’s talk a little bit about what to do on FanDuel, where a Pittsburgh stack may be a bit interesting. To be clear, this is not a very good offense, but FD pitcher pricing is expensive tonight and only Ke’Bryan Hayes reaches the $3K price point among Pittsburgh bats and the Pirates actually have the fourth highest implied run line on the slate (4.7). Joan Adon has struck out 12 of the 46 major league batters he’s faced through two starts, though with just an 8.9 SwStr%. Stuff isn’t the problem, as he’s had some impressive SwStr rates in the minors and impressive movement on his pitches at times. The young man also seemingly doesn’t know where it’s going. He’s walked seven at the major league level and had some fairly high walk rates throughout the minors. As far as prospect ranking, Adon currently sits at 22nd in the Washington organization with a 40 FV grade (Fangraphs). Pirate bats are five of the top seven values or point per dollar projections on FanDuel tonight. Starting with Daniel Vogelbach (112 wRC+, .163 ISO), projected to bat leadoff, no other batters is projected for more than five points per $1K of salary on the slate. Vogelbach is at 5.41 currently. Ben Gamel (115 wRC+, .166 ISO), Yoshi Tsutsugo (88 wRC+, .153 ISO) and Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) are also top projected values on FD tonight.