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The start of Guardians-Reds will be delayed due to rain Wednesday

Game update: The start of Guardians-Reds will be delayed due to rain Wednesday

Royals-Cardinals postponed due to inclement weather Wednesday

Game update: Royals-Cardinals postponed due to inclement weather Wednesday

Is It Worth Attacking One of Tonight's Top Pitchers?

On a nine game slate, no offense currently reaches the double digits in our Smash% simulations, but there are some interesting teams with strong Leverage and Value% numbers. On DraftKings, the Giants currently feature a strong leveraging spot against Yu Darvish, who didn’t allow a single hit or barrel in his first start, but did walk four Diamondbacks, while striking out only three of 22 batters. Darvish also suffered through a horrendous mid-season slump last year. In fact, LHBs have a .305 wOBA against him since last year that’s nearly league average. Brandon Belt (167 wRC+, .342 IS0) and Brandon Crawford (153 wRC+, .235 ISO) have both smashed RHP since the start of last season and both are fairly expensive on DK (though much less on FD), which should keep their ownership numbers down. Mike Yastrzemski (121 wRC+, .270 ISO) is much cheaper.

Along with the Giants, the Blue Jays and Royals look like strong leverage spots on FanDuel. Nestor Cortes came out of nowhere to establish himself as a key member of the Yankee rotation with a 20.1 K-BB% after being thrust into a starting role mid-season. Concern about repeating that performance starts with just a 9.8 SwStr% in that role last year, along with a 25.5 GB% and 85.2 LOB%. Toronto is expected to stack the lineup RH against Cortes (RHBs .283 wOBA) with each of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer and Bo Bichette exceeding a 150 wRC+ and .200 ISO against LHP since last season. Getting this lineup at low ownership seems like a steal.

The Royals present an interesting case. Remember, with leverage, we don’t expect to succeed very often, but when we do, the cash should flow in to more than make up for the failures. Dakota Hudson (2-3 IP this spring) worked his way back from Tommy John surgery at the very end of last season, but has totaled just 47.2 innings since 2019. He’s an extreme ground baller (57.6 GB%), but has produced strikeout (18.1%) and walk rates (11.3%) far worse than the league average through 249.2 career innings. He also has a near 50 point platoon split with LHBs owning a .323 wOBA against him. Another key here is that Kansas City bats are cheap. Andrew Benintendi (109 wRC+, .175 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is their only above average hitter against lefties, but with Hudson’s control issues, Bobby Witt Jr. ($2.5K or less) or Carlos Santana ($2.9K or less) could both pay off with a couple of walks and a run scored.

Potentially Under-valued Lineup Facing Former All-Star

Your eyes have to drop down to nearly the middle of the board before seeing the Dodgers currently at 4.8 implied runs with seven teams ahead of them. This is a bit perplexing for such a dominant lineup against a pitcher who was, at one time, an All-Star, but hasn’t had an ERA below four since 2015. Of course, Chris Archer has been injured for much of that time, but that doesn’t exactly get him off the hook today. Archer has thrown just 19.1 innings since the end of the 2019 season, in which RHBs have actually been over 100 points better against him by both wOBA (.363) and xwOBA (.401). That’s an extremely small sample, but even if it were to hold true, it wouldn’t really matter to the Dodgers because they specialize in RHBs who handle same-handed pitching awfully well. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Will Smith all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .165 ISO vs RHP since the start of last season. As far as projections go (PlateIQ), Betts and Trea Turner are the top overall bats, while Max Muncy (128 wRC+, .265 ISO) costs only $3.1K on FanDuel, serving as the top lineup value on that site.

RHBs Have a .387 wOBA Against This Pitcher Since Last Year

Patrick Corbin wasn’t awful in his first start, against the Mets (4 IP – 2 R – 2 BB – 4 K) and the Braves had just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP last year, despite a predominantly right-handed lineup. Yet, Atlanta is still just one of two teams with a run total above five runs tonight. Last year, Corbin produced a 5.62 ERA with a 4.29 xFIP his only estimator below four and a half. His strikeout rate dropped to 19% last year and 22.6% of his fly balls left the yard for a career high 37 dingers allowed. RHBs have a .387 wOBA against Corbin since last year. The Braves are the early Smash% favorite in LineupHQ and several of their hitters project near the top of the board (PlateIQ), including Ozzie Albies, who’s mashed LHP since last year (142 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna, who has not in a smaller sample (70 wRC+, .154 ISO). However, Ozuna is a relatively cheap bat in the middle of a highly regarded lineup tonight. If you’re looking for even more value for your Atlanta stack, you might want to consider starting at the bottom on DraftKings, as Orlando Arcia (86 wRC+) is the top point per dollar value, aside from Ozuna. On FanDuel, it’s Adam Duvall (.182 ISO) at $2.9K. The Brewers, Cardinals, Yankees, Astros and Angels are also around five implied runs, while the Rangers join the Braves at the top of the board above five.

Middle of the Board Loaded with High Upside Arms

The middle of the board offers a few interesting high upside arms, who are in different situations than they were last year. Particularly, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb are now pitching for particularly analytically inclined teams (though the Yankees couldn’t fix the former last season). Heaney struck out 26.9% of the batters he faced last year, but allowed 29 home runs in just 129.2 innings. This is not a new phenomenon, but simply the story of his career. Still, there was nearly a two run difference between his ERA (5.83) and SIERA (3.84). Even his worst estimator (4.85 FIP) was a run better than his actual results. The Twins have some potent RHBs with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa both healthy. PlateIQ projections are pretty high on the Dodger staff finding the problem, as Heaney is currently one of the top projected pitchers on the slate.

Cobb rescued his career pitching for the Angels last year. He struck out a career high 24.9% with a 53.3 GB% and allowed just 4.2% Barrels/BBE. His 3.76 ERA was within half a run of all his non-FIP estimators. The Giants would probably be quite happy with those results, but there have been reports that his velocity was up to 97 mph this spring after averaging four mph less last year. Should he be able to hold that through the season or at least part of it, things could become exciting in San Francisco again this year. Even if he holds it tonight, Cobb could be a great value for less than $7K. The Padres have just an 87 wRC+ on the young season.

Patrick Sandoval (3-4.2) saw an early end to his 2021 season and has already had his first start of this season pushed back a few days, but struck out 25.9% of batters and even that doesn’t tell the complete story, as he established a 15.2 SwStr% with 51.1% of his contact on the ground with an 85.3 mph EV. He was a bit wild (9.9 BB%) and 21% of his fly balls did leave the yard, but his 3.62 ERA was within half a run of all his estimators. He faces a Miami lineup he should be able to handle today. On the opposing side, Jesus Luzardo has a live arm, but just didn’t have the results last season, though he did finish up the season striking out 16 of his last 38 batters with just two walks. On the season, an 11 BB%, 17.7 HR/FB and 10.1% Barrels/BBE did him in, despite an impressive 13.2 SwStr%. Some still believe there’s a path to stardom here, but there are some things that need to be fixed as even his best estimator was a 4.72 SIERA. Seven batters in the projected Angels lineup exceed a 22.5 K% vs LHP since last season.

For those looking to drop a cheap secondary arm into your pitching spot on DraftKings, splitting the year between rotation and bullpen last year, Kuhl was done in by a 12% walk rate that had his 4.82 ERA within half a run of all of his estimators. However, as the lowest priced arm on DraftKings ($5.2K), he may be playable in GPPs simply due to the situation. Texas is a somewhat neutral park with a pitcher friendly umpiring situation. Daniel Lynch costs slightly more ($5.5K) and failed to come close to the prospect hype last season. His 5.69 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.82 FIP (11.0 HR/FB) to a 6.95 DRA and 6.32 xERA (90.7 mph EV, 10.4% Barrels/BBE) and the Cardinals smoked LHP last season (115 wRC+), but it’s another power suppressing park and he was/is a highly regarded prospect.

Unexpected Arms in the Upper Price Range

Yu Darvish is the only pitcher to reach the $10K mark on either site tonight with a price tag sitting at $10.1K on DraftKings. Three more reach $9K on either site, but none on both. Darvish did not answer many questions by opening the season with six no-hit innings in Arizona where he didn’t even allow a single barrel and experienced a slight velocity bump from last season because he struck out just three of 22 batters, while walking four and then the D’Backs were nearly no-hit the next night too. Even amid a massive mid-season slump last season, Darvish finished with a 22.7 K-BB% and estimators about half a run below his 4.22 ERA. This lineup will certainly be a tougher test for him, but San Francisco is a pitcher friendly park and the umpiring situation may be favorable as well. That said, Darvish projects to be popular tonight, so perhaps a fade is in order.

Dakota Hudson costs $9.5K on FanDuel and this seems erroneous, as he’s more than $3K less on DraftKings. Hudson (2-3 IP this spring) worked his way back from Tommy John surgery at the very end of last season, but has totaled just 47.2 innings since 2019. He’s an extreme ground baller (57.6 GB%), but has produced strikeout (18.1%) and walk rates (11.3%) far worse than the league average through 249.2 career innings. He also has a near 50 point platoon split with LHBs owning a .323 wOBA against him. It’s tough to recommend him even at the lower price tag.

Luis Garcia is $9.4K on DraftKings ($800 less on FD). He broke out with a 26.4 K% (16.5 K-BB%) and 3.48 ERA in 2021. Most estimators were slightly above that, but adding in the contact profile generates an even better 3.27 xERA. The only negative is that Garcia only got through six innings nine times last year, having some issues the third time through the order. This is a terrific spot against an Arizona offense that had just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP last year. If he’s on his game, he has a chance to be tonight’s top pitcher. Early projections (PlateIQ) aren’t quite as high on him, but that can change before game time.

Eric Lauer costs $9.1K on DraftKings and nearly $2K less on FanDuel. First response may be to ignore him at this cost, but he showed increased velocity in his last spring start and the Orioles have pushed the fence up and back, making it much tougher on RHBs. Lauer had a 3.19 ERA that was about a run below estimators last year, due to a .249 BABIP and 79.4 LOB%. He has the makings of a solid back end starter with a 23.9 K% and 8.4 BB%. Oddly, Lauer currently projects for around 20% ownership on DK even with the price hike.

The Strong Lineup That Nobody's Expected to Own Tonight

Using the Stack tool in LineupHQ, we’re seeing some amazing numbers pop for the Seattle Mariners on DraftKings this afternoon. Their 11.5 Smash% gives them a top five offense in our PlateIQ simulations, but they are currently the bottom team with a 0% stacking projection. Not only are they a top three projected value (11.5%), but their non-existent projected ownership gives them the highest leverage potential on the board tonight (10.0). The lack of interest is a bit surprising, considering how much Dylan Bundy struggled last year. Though his 6.06 ERA was well above his estimators, Bundy produced just a 12.6 K-BB% and allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE (19.2 HR/FB). None of his estimators dipped below four and a half. Batters from either side of the plate were above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him last year. This is a pretty solid Seattle lineup with the addition of Jesse Winker (177 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Adam Frazier (115 wRC+) to go along with Mitch Haniger (110 wRC+, .218 ISO) and top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, the latter also the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings with a price tag of just $2K.

The leverage projection is a bit lower on FanDuel, where Mariners are expected to be a bit more popular and no team really stands out, but the Blue Jays are top of the board with a 12.3 Smash% and under 10% ownership, which gives them a solid 4.1 Leverage projection. Some would consider Jameson Taillon simply returning and starting 29 games last year a major triumph. As to his effectiveness, it was a mixed bag of ups and downs that rounded out to a league average season with a 4.33 ERA (15.9 K-BB%) that was within half a run of all estimators. He had only a 12 point split with batters from either side of the plate a bit above a .300 wOBA against him, basically league average. George Springer (136 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP since last year) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (171 wRC+, .303 ISO) are the big bats here with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (110 wRC+, .194 ISO) costing less than $4K on either site.

Potentially Top Values Against Tough to Project Pitcher

With Nick Martinez being somewhat of an unknown, who last threw a major league pitch in 2017 and has 415.1 innings of work with a 4.9 K-BB%, projection systems may not be sure how to handle him. While some season long projection systems suggest he could be a near league average starter after his work in Japan, the truth is, we don’t really know how his work will translate. He may be worth taking a flyer on for just $5.9K on DraftKings, but he’s much tougher to trust on FanDuel, where you only roster one pitcher. However, something to note on FanDuel is that no projected San Francisco starter tonight costs more than $2.7K. As such, we find several Giants projected near the top of the board in terms of points per dollar in LineupHQ tonight (PlateIQ projections). Brandon Belt (164 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Mike Yazstremszki (122 wRC+, .273 ISO), Wilmer Flores (109 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Joc Pederson (93 wRC+, .203 ISO) are all top 10 projected values on FanDuel tonight. In fact, nobody in the projected lineup has an ISO lower than Flores’s .187 vs RHP since the start of last season and Belt is the only one of those four batters above $3.8K on DraftKings as well. If you’re not using Martinez as a cheap secondary arm on DraftKings, consider sprinkling some cheap Giants into your lineup as well, although they do find themselves on the lower half of the board at just 4.37 implied runs tonight.

The Top Offense That May Not Be Too Popular Tonight

At the top of our hitter projections tonight (PlateIQ), we find Shohei Ohtani (145 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP since last year) and Mike Trout (216 wRC+, .394 ISO) and that’s going to be no surprise on any given night. The Angels are the last of four teams above five implied runs tonight (5.09) at home, against Elieer Hernandez, who can miss some bats, but has some issues in his contact profile (88.8 mph EV, 8.4% Barrels/BBE, 38 HRs in 159.2 IP). Platoon splits are a real issue with LHBs owning a career .376 wOBA against him. He missed most of last season and has already had injury issues this spring as well.

The Braves sit atop the board tonight at 5.59 runs and you’ll find a number of Atlanta batters project fairly well right below Ohtani & Trout. Josh Rogers has just been confirmed as the opposing starter. Despite a 3.28 ERA over six starts last year, Rogers’ best estimator was a 5.78 SIERA (5.3 K-BB%). He generated just 29.7% of his contact on the ground, allowing 9.7% Barrels/BBE. RHBs thrashed the lefty for a .396 wOBA and seven home runs in just 106 PAs. This is great news for Ozzie Albies, who thrashes from the right side of the plate (141 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since last season) and sits atop the Atlanta lineup tonight. He’s a top three overall projected batter on either site.

Let’s talk about another offense with a strong run total (5.19) without a lot of top 10 projected bats. The Rays are facing Paul Blackburn, who has completed 138 major league innings over five seasons in which he’s never exceeded a 16 K%. He does keep the ball on the ground (52.3%), having allowed just 24 career barrels (5.0%), but batters from either side of the plate are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him. This is the type of pitcher you want to stack against, rather than pick out individual bats with so much of his contact on the ground, though such a low strikeout rate. Brandon Lowe (161 wRC+, .314 ISO vs RHP since 2021) may be the most under-rated bat in the majors and players can off-set some of his cost with a much cheaper Ji-Man Choi (143 wRC+, .219 ISO) batting in the cleanup spot tonight. The Phillies are the only other team above five implied runs and certainly could have their way with Taijuan Walker tonight, who is making the start despite dealing with a knee issue this spring. However, the Mets also have David Peterson in reserve and may consider piggybacking the lefty against a lineup focused on right-handed pitching tonight.

Strikeout Upside Facing Offense with 30 wRC+ Through Four Games

If you’re looking for an arm off the middle of the board tonight, Huascar Ynoa (3-4.2 IP this spring) may be your man. He produced and impressive 20.2 K-BB% last season, but some issues in his contact profile (90.7 mph EV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE, 18.4 HR/FB) resulted in a 4.05 ERA and 4.30 xERA much higher than his contact neutral estimators. The Nationals produced a board low 30 wRC+ in their four game series against the Mets this weekend. Ynoa costs $8.6K on either site and does not project to be all that popular currently.

Luis Patino (2-1.2) was shelled for two home runs and four runs very quickly in his second and last spring outing. He’s one of those guys with great stuff, who hasn’t been able to successfully develop a platoon busting third pitch yet. LHBs have a .340 career xwOBA against him, while he’s suffered from control (10.3%) and contact (89.4 mph EV) issues at the major league level with just a 22.7 K%. The Tampa Bay defense should benefit him as should the fact that he resides in a pitcher friendly park. There’s not much to fear in this Oakland lineup (70 wRC+ this year), but we probably should have some workload concerns with Patino here.

Nick Martinez (3-4-5) last threw a major league pitch in 2017 and with 415.1 innings of a 4.9 K-BB%, there probably weren’t many who thought we’d ever see him in a major league rotation again. He’s been a bit more productive in Japan since then, though ZIPs is the only projection system that sees him registering an ERA below four with a 15.3 K-BB%. Should he be able to accomplish anything close to that, it’ll be a quality signing for the Padres, and could be a decent value tonight for less than $6K. He currently projects to single digit ownership on either site.

2022 Breakout Candidate & 2021 Bounce Back Are Top Monday Arms

Tonight’s seven game slate starts a bit earlier, at 6:40 ET, and features just one pitcher to reach the $10K price point on either site. That’s Alek Manoah, who costs $10.2K on DraftKings and $9.8K on FanDuel. Manoah (2-3.1-4-4.2 IP this spring) is a 2022 breakout candidate, though you could argue that it’s already happened with a 111.2 innings of a 19.0 K-BB% in his rookie campaign. While his 3.22 ERA was about half a run below most of his estimators, his contact profile (86.8 mph EV, 5.8% Barrels/BBE) produced a 3.37 xERA. Despite it’s reputation as band box, Yankee Stadium actually plays fairly neutrally and even slightly negatively via Statcast Park Factors in terms of run environment. Manoah is not projected to be highly owned with other pitchers owning comparable projections in terms of fantasy points (PlateIQ). Perhaps that serves as the attraction here.

Additional pitchers crossing the $9K barrier on either site are Alex Wood, who is the only pitcher to do so on both sites at $9.2K, Ranger Suarez ($9.6K on FD) and Chris Flexen ($9.6K on DK). Alex Wood (2-3.2-4.1-3.1) had a career resurgence in his first year in San Francisco (though he was lit up in his last spring start) with a 19.3 K-BB%, allowing just 5.3% Barrels/BBE with just 50.8% of his contact on the ground. While Wood did suffer a bit of a mid-season slump, he finished it off with just eight runs over his last 30 innings. A 3.83 ERA was within half a run of all his estimators and below only one (3.87 xERA). The Padres have started the season with a team 123 wRC+ against a weak Arizona staff. This is not a terrible spot for him with only four batters in the projected San Diego lineup above a .320 wOBA vs LHP last year. Wood certainly has the potential to be tonight’s top pitcher and even projects as such, but also projects to be the most popular arm on the slate currently.

To say that Suarez (2-3.2) had success in transitioning to the rotation would be a vast under-statement. He flat out dominated with a 1.36 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 25 K%, and 56.7 GB%, allowing just three barrels in 11 starts. Today’s concerns would be about his workload, the Philadelphia defense and the addition of key RH bats to the Mets’ lineup. He’s projected for much lower ownership on FanDuel, where he’s the second most expensive pitcher, but costs just $8.9K on DraftKings. Flexen (3-4-5-4) got about as much as he could out of a 16.9 K% (8.6 SwStr%) last year, due mostly to a 5.4 BB% and allowing just 6.3% Barrels/BBE. Still, his 3.61 ERA was far lower than both his contact including (4.27 xERA) and omitting (4.70 SIERA) estimators. Flexen had a 71 point reverse split last year (RHBs .339 wOBA) that was confirmed by his Statcast profile. His high DK cost is perplexing, as he costs $2.6K less on FD.

Pirates-Cardinals postponed due to rain Monday

Game update: Pirates-Cardinals postponed due to rain Monday

Top Pitcher Struggled with LHBs Last Year

Projections are currently suggesting the Mets might be tonight’s most popular stack against a home run prone Josiah Gray (10.7 BB%, 12.2% Barrels/BBE), who is certainly not without potential (14.3 SwStr%), though they are a bit behind the teams in Los Angeles tonight (Astros & Angels) in PlateIQ simulations. If you’re looking for the highest leverage, that would be either Washington or Cincinnati. Of course, they’re facing the two toughest pitchers on the board in Max Scherzer and Charlie Morton. As we certainly saw last night, high leverage stacks are generally high risk, as neither Pittsburgh, nor Arizona really paid off, but when they do, players are likely to profit the most because not many other players are expected to be on them. Scherzer has been dealing with some hamstring issues recently too. He claims to be fine, but even if there’s a small chance that he’s not…

One of the remaining teams currently with a positive leverage ratio on DraftKings is the Braves (3.1). While Reiver Sanmartin had an impressive 19.2 K-BB% at AAA last year, Fangraphs gives him just a 35 Future Value grade and he didn’t get much work in during major league games in camp this year. Atlanta is one of the few teams with strong Smash%, Value% and Leverage numbers in LineupHQ tonight. It’s a bit different on FanDuel where both Texas and Los Angeles (AL) score well in all those numbers. The Rangers face Jose Berrios, who can either shut a team down or get lit up on occasion. Berrios had a nearly 100 point split by wOBA and more than 40 by xwOBA as well. LH Texas bats like Corey Seager (147 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last year) or more cheaply, Brad Miller (123 wRC+, .244 ISO), should draw your interest in large GPPs.

The Angels are a bit more obvious a choice. Jake Odorizzi pitched just two innings this spring after averaging not much more than four innings per start last season. The Astros like to limit his workload, as he produced just a 20.6 K% last year with a 4.21 ERA that was about a half run below his estimators, likely due to Houston’s excellent defense. While Odorizzi was 36 points better against RHBs last year, Statcast gives him an xwOBA within a point of .327 against batters from either side of the plate and he’s had a tendency towards a reverse platoon split in the past, which may not serve him well here. One reason the Angels may score so well here is due to their high cost bats. Shohei Ohtani (150 wRC+, .313 vs RHP) and Mike Trout (222 wRC+, .398 ISO) are tough to fit in the same lineup, while Anthony Rendon (104 wRC+) is a bit cheaper ($3.2K).

High Value Potential Against a Volatile Pitcher

The Mets offense did their job against the Nationals last night against a veteran pitcher and the Washington bullpen, but tonight they face a more volatile arm in Josiah Gray. The key piece in the trade for the guy the Nationals are facing last night, Gray exhibited swing and miss stuff beyond his 24.8 K% over 70.2 IP last year (14.3 SwStr%). However, everything else was a problem. He walked 10.7% of the batters he faced and when batters made contact, it was only on the ground 30.8% of the time and left the park 18.6% of the time when in the air. He was barreled up on 12.2% of the contact he allowed. Batters from either side of the plate hammered Gray for a wOBA above .330, Statcast suggests a wider spilt (RHBs .290 xwOBA, LHBs .361). An interesting case can be made for some exposure to Gray, but also playing a few lineups against him. The Mets are one of the five teams currently bunched on the top half of the board between 4.75 and 5.25 implied runs tonight, while the projected lineup supplies both strong overall bats and some of the potentially better values tonight. Most obviously, Robinson Cano costs less than $2.5K on either side. Plate IQ projections have him as a top five point per dollar play on FanDuel and the top value play on DraftKings. Brandon Nimmo (136 wRC+ vs RHP last year) has been dealing with a neck issue, but should he be atop the Mets lineup, he costs just $2.6K on FanDuel where projections peg him as a top three value. Jeff McNeil (94 wRC+) is looking to bounce back tonight, but is fairly cheap on both sites, while Francisco Lindor (106 wRC+, .190 ISO) is coming off a red hot spring.