DFS Alerts

Covering Pitchers in Meaningful Games and More

If we’re looking at paying down for pitching tonight, perhaps we’re looking at guys like Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nestor Cortes, Steven Matz and Marco Gonzales, who are still pitching for something. Well, okay, maybe not Gonzales (11.1% Barrels/BBE), who has nine quality starts in his last 11 starts, but with a 5.15 xFIP. Although, four in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 29 K% vs LHP this year. Rodriguez has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, finally dropping his ERA below five (4.93), but only has two quality starts to show for it. In fact, he’s completed six innings in just four of his last 14 starts. For a lot of the season, estimators were around two runs below his ERA. Now, they’re a run to a run and a half with a .365 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% to go with a 20.6 K-BB% and 86.6 mph EV. The workload is one problem and while it’s actually a park upgrade for him, Washington is still a positive run environment, one of very few on the slate tonight and the Nationals can still hit LHP (112 wRC+ with just two in projected lineup above an 18 K% this season).

DeSclafani has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than three runs, but has just three quality starts in that span, failing to complete even five innings four times. The peripherals are fine (16.2 K-BB%), even if estimators ranging from a 3.64 DRA to a 4.10 SIERA are a bit above his 3.26 ERA, but DeSclafani has barely averaged five innings per start this year. The Padres have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only three in the projected lineup exceeding a 20.2 K% against them.

Increasing his strikeout rate to 24.6% over his last five starts has brought Matz up to 22.3% on the season, in which he’s carrying a 12.1 HR/FB that’s his lowest mark since his 35 inning rookie season (2015). A 3.88 ERA is within a quarter run of non-DRA estimators. The Orioles have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, but that’s been dropping in the second half and Matz is at home in a more neutral run environment with four projected Baltimore batters above a 24 K% vs LHP. An 11.4 SwStr% over Nestor Cortes’s last eight starts has added more validity to his 25.5 K% as a starter, a span over which he’s generated just 25.7% of contact on the ground with an 89.7 mph EV, but still produced a 3.31 ERA. Of course, estimators are higher (85.3 LOB%), but with a 19.6 K-BB%, he’s removed a lot of doubt. The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP with four in the projected lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs LHP.

Who else? Eli Morgan has shown some strikeout upside with six or more in six of his 17 starts, but there’s also a fair amount of risk in his 28.7 GB% and 89.5 mph EV, resulting in 18 home runs on 31 barrels (12.4%) in just 83.2 innings. The good news is that all estimators are below his 5.27 ERA. The bad news is the lowest of them is a 4.44 SIERA. Texas has an 87 wRC+ vs RHP and the park is a negative run environment with the roof closed. Four in the opposing projected lineup have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP, which isn’t great, but Morgan can be a viable GPP play at a low price, attempting to establish his place in the rotation going forward. Lastly, Jon Gray didn’t exactly re-establish himself as a front line starter this year, but it was a nice bounce back from a pretty awful showing last year with a perfectly average 14.7 K-BB%, nearly half his contact on the ground (49.1%) and just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. His 4.28 ERA is actually a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.59 DRA to a 4.22 SIERA. He’s headed into free agency and faces an Arizona lineup, likely without a lot of strikeouts, but with a 78 wRC+ vs RHP. Another little tidbit in this game is that the roof is expected to be open according to the team website and Statcast Park Factors actually suggest that makes it a more pitcher friendly environment since the humidor installation.

A Lot of Information About Expensive Pitchers in Meaningless Games

The last large night slate of the MLB season is a difficult one to navigate, due mostly to incomplete information, so let’s give you all the information we currently have. We still don’t even know who’s pitching for the Cubs and Padres, while we have to guess at pitcher workloads for much of the slate in meaningless games. For example, the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites tonight is Clayton Kershaw. He’s certainly still pitching for something, though it’s a long shot for the Dodgers to win the division at this point, but he hasn’t reached 75 pitches in any of three starts since returning from the IL, but has been just beneath that mark in each of his last two. He’s struck out 16 of 56 since his return with a 52.8 GB% and two walks, so the quality of the performance has been the same, but it’s the length we certainly can’t trust at this cost tonight. For the sake of completion, the Brewers have a 90 wRC+ vs LHP with three in the projected lineup exceeding a 30 K% vs LHP, but this is a meaningless game for them, unless they really want to keep the Dodgers in that Wild Card game.

Framber Valdez, Lance Lynn and Sandy Alcantara each cost at least $10K on one site tonight. Nonen of them are pitching for anything, while two of them are tuning up for post-season starts next week. That may mean that Alcantara has the loosest strings with the Marlins not needing to hold anything back? He has 10 quality starts in his last 12 attempts and has recorded seventh inning outs in exactly half of his 32 starts with a 24 K% (18 K-BB%), 53.4 GB% and just 5.7% Barrels/BBE. Estimators are tightly packed between a 3.30 DRA and 3.67 SIERA. Maybe the Phillies (92 wRC+ vs RHP) are flat, having just been eliminated in a pitcher friendly park, but only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.1 K% vs RHP this year.

Framber Valdez has completed six innings in eight of his last nine starts, but has just a 3.6 K-BB% (14.5 BB%) over his last three. If there’s any goal for him today, perhaps it’s finishing the season with a ground ball rate above 70% (70.1% currently)? But when a good portion of the value is built into the workload and that’s somewhat of a coin flip here….and it’s not even a good matchup, though five in the projected Oakland lineup have at least a 23 K% vs LHP this year. Lynn has been blistered in two of his last four starts, pushing his ERA up to 2.72, still more than a half run above all estimators except for a 2.63 ERA that accounts for the 5.9% Barrels/BBE that he’s allowed. A 20.5 K-BB% is in line with his work in Texas the last couple of years, though he hasn’t been the typical workhorse this year, averaging just under six innings per start and the White Sox have no reason to push him even that far tonight, which doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t. The matchup here is fine. Detroit has a 91 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected lineup have at least a 25 K% vs RHP this year.

Sean Manaea and Shane McClanahan are the only other pitchers to reach $9K on both sites, though Ranger Suarez is short by just $200. All three are quality left-handed pitchers, pitching in meaningless games, though not necessarily for their opposition. The Rays have the most incentive NOT to over-work McClanahan for obvious reasons and the Yankees (the only team still playing for something here) have a 111 wRC+ vs LHP. Strikeouts have been dipping for McClanahan, who has four or less in three of his last five starts, but still exactly a 20 K-BB% on the year. The larger concern with a drop in his strikeout rate is a troubling contact profile that includes a 91.6 mph EV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE. In fact, he’s allowed 20 barrels (14.6%), but just five home runs since the start of August (49.1 IP), which seems a bit fortunate. A 4.63 xERA is exactly a run above his SIERA and DRA, his next highest estimators. He’s recorded a sixth inning out in just one of his last six starts.

Suarez has allowed as many as three runs just once in his 11 starts. Is he as good as his 1.69 ERA? No, but the fact that he’s been really good and even still improving can’t be argued. Suarez has a 21.8 K-BB% with a 52.6 GB% over his last 44 innings. This comes with a 1.96 FIP, but he’s allowed just three barrels over this span. His worst season estimator is a 3.54 SIERA. It’s a great matchup (Marlins 80 wRC+ vs LHP with three in the projected lineup striking out more than one-third of the time against them) in a great park. If the Phillies are going to just let him do his thing, he may even be the top pitcher and top value on the board tonight. Manaea has thrown seven innings of two run ball or better with at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five starts, but has allowed nine runs in 10 innings with just six strikeouts in the other two. On the season, he owns a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.94 ERA that’s above all estimators except for a 4.11 ERA that takes his 90.4 mph EV into account. The projected lineup for Houston has three batters above a 15 K% vs LHP. There’s every reason in the world to fade high priced pitching tonight, but if you’re going to pay up, perhaps the matchup in Miami is your best bet.

This Big Lefty May Not Be Welcomed Home So Warmly

The short way of putting things is that Madison Bumgarner’s 4.58 ERA is the same as his SIERA with his remaining estimators all within one-third of a run. He’s a back end starter at this point in his career and with a .323 wOBA/.326 xwOBA against RHBs this year, his old team can take advantage, as they’re currently projected to line up entirely from the right-side with quality hitters. In fact, of those projected, only Thairo Estrada is below a 118 wRC+ or .170 ISO against lefties this year. Kris Bryant (144 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP) and Buster Posey (175 wRC+, .250 ISO) are your expensive bats here, but Evan Longoria (201 wRC+, .339 ISO), Austin Slater (130 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Darin Ruf (164 wRC+, .312 ISO) are quite a bit cheaper. While San Francisco is a negative run environment, it’s been less of one with some stadium alterations over the last couple of years and the Giants actually have the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.12).

Batters from Either Side Above a .400 xwOBA

Finding the value bats on this nine game board is not as easy as it has been the last few days, though a couple of Boston bats still qualify (Bobby Dalbec, Jose Iglesias). It also may not be as necessary with less of a need to pay up for extremely high priced pitchers. One spot we can to for some of these cheaper bats is ironically the same one we might be looking to for lower priced GPP arms at Citi Field. Edward Cabrera has shown some upside, striking out 13 of his last 36 batters, but the contact profile is a mess, including a 9.18 xERA with batters from either side of the plate above a .400 xwOBA against him. The Mets have a middling 4.41 implied run line in a negative run environment, but you might be surprised to learn that each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year with only Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+, .147 ISO) below a .185 ISO. And at $3.2K or less out of the leadoff spot, Nimmo is still one of the top values on the board. Another one would be Michael Conforto (118 wRC+, .203 ISO), who crushed a 469 foot homer last night and costs less than $3K on either site. Francisco Lindor (107 wRC+, .187 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup costing more than $4K on DraftKings.

The Clear Top Offense is a Difficult Fade Once Again

The Red Sox are at it again. Or at least the odds makers are. For the third straight night they are the top projected offense outside Coors by a large margin in Baltimore (facing a lefty). At 6.02 implied runs, no other team is within half a run on a nine game slate. In fact, only two other teams (Dodgers, Giants) have run totals above five tonight. While the Red Sox failed spectacularly on Tuesday night, at least they hit their run total last night, shutting out the Orioles 6-0. It’s virtually the same spot tonight. Alex Wells has thrown 36.2 innings with just a 13.7 K%, 28.4 GB% and 47% of his contact at a 95 mph exit velocity or higher. His only estimator below six is a 5.62 SIERA. RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him, though LHBs are within five points of .350 too. And the O’s still have the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days and by far the worst on the board (6.35 ERA/5.22 FIP/5.29 xFIP/4.78 SIERA). The right-handed core of this lineup are among the top bats on the board, including Xander Bogaerts (120 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP), J.D. Martinez (114 wRC+, .212 ISO) and even Hunter Renfroe (135 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Enrique Hernandez (124 wRC+, .220 ISO) with Bobby Dalbec (126 wRC+, .260 ISO) the lower priced value play. Jose Iglesias (117 wRC+, .151 ISO) is also worth a look at a low cost.

A Dodger stack is also great, but probably more expensive in a more neutral to negative run environment. While Vince Velasquez has a 50+ point wOBA split, Statcast closes the gap to less than 10 points with batters from either side still above .330. Vince Velasquez has faced 37 batters over three starts for the Padres. He’s struck out nine, but also has a 94.2 mph EV. The plan seems to be aimed towards less than twice through the order, but then it’s also shocking how poor the San Diego bullpen has been over the last month (4.97 ERA/5.07 FIP/4.79 xFIP/4.12 SIERA). Every batter in the projected lineup for the Dodgers exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP. In fact, Gavin Lux is the only one below either a 120 wRC+ or .165 ISO vs RHP this year, but he does have a 164 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Pitching choices below $9K aren’t as robust as they’ve been in the earlier part of the week as we’re getting towards the back end of most rotations and seeing a lot of pitchers either working their way back from injuries, winding down on the year or even auditioning for major league roles next season. How many of these pitchers can we have any confidence in rostering? We can really focus on two games here.

Ian Anderson faces Kyle Gibson on one of the most important games on the slate (at least for the Phillies). Not ideally, it may also be the most positive run environment on the slate after weather is factored in, but both pitchers have been pitching well or have at least increased their strikeout rates over their last three starts. Gibson has struck out 22 of his last 71 batters, while maintaining a 52.3 GB% over his last three starts. Of course, he’s allowed 11 runs in 17.2 innings over this span because a quarter of his fly balls have left the yard and his ground ball rate is nearly higher than his strand rate (54.1%). He has significantly increased his cutter usage in these starts to over 20%. On the season, his 3.60 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.77 FIP to a 4.42 SIERA. The Braves have an even 100 wRC+ vs RHP with four in a pretty stable projected lineup above a 23.5 K% vs RHP. Since not striking out any of the first 39 batters he faced after returning from the IL, Anderson has since struck out 24 of his last 69, raising his season K-BB from barely double digits to a more respectable 14.1 K-BB%. While half his contact has been on the ground (49.7%), he’s still allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE with a 3.60 ERA bellow estimators ranging from a 3.67 DRA to a 4.35 xERA. While the Phillies have just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP, only three in the projected lineup exceed a 20.1 K% vs RHP. Both pitchers cost between $7.8K and $8.8K on either site.

Nick Pivetta and Tony Gonsolin are pitchers with a 26% strikeout rate or higher, hindered by high walk rates, which also generally hinders their work loads. Despite a 26 K% (16.1 K-BB%), Pivetta has a 4.52 ERA that’s above all of his estimators, but by more than half a run only of his 3.94 xERA. He also hasn’t completed six innings in six straight starts. He’s in the only other troubling run environment tonight in Baltimore, but the O’s have just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP and eight of nine projected against him exceed a 23 K%. Pivetta is a fine GPP SP2 risk for $7K on DraftKings. You look at the 27.4 K% and can understand Gonsolin’s 3.00 ERA. Then there’s the 14.6 BB% with all of his estimators at least 0.7 points higher, running all the way up to a 4.66 SIERA. The good news is that he struck out seven of 18 Diamondbacks last time out without a walk, only his second walkless outing of the season. Don’t expect him to exceed twice through the order though. His high for batters faced this season is 20, for pitches it’s 83. The park is fine, but the Padres have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only three in the projected lineup exceeding a 20.2 K% vs RHP. Also, problematically, Gonsolin costs $8.8K on DraftKings and $1.6K less on FanDuel, where the quality start is more important.

In a more strictly SP2 sense we can look at Edward Cabrera and Rich Hill facing off at Citi Field, which is a great pitcher’s park. Thirteen of Edward Cabrera’s 22 strikeouts have come in his last two starts (36 batters faced). The rest of the profile is incredibly problematic (15.9 BB%, 12.5% Barrels/BBE) through six starts. Estimators range from a 4.98 DRA to a 9.18 xERA. The Mets have a 97 wRC+ vs RHP with only three batters above a 21.1 K% vs RHP in the projected lineup, but he costs just $5.6K. Rich Hill will step in for Tylor Megill. Over his last nine outings (eight starts), Hill has a 3.35 ERA and 3.37 FIP with a 23.4 K%. He’s only gone beyond five innings twice in this stretch, but once against these Marlins with eight strikeouts. Four batters in the Miami projected lineup exceed a 30 K% vs LHP this year. Hill costs $7K on DraftKings.

The last pitcher we have to talk about is making his major league debut in Kansas City tonight and that’s because Angel Zerpa costs the minimum on DK. Zerpa is the 10th ranked prospect in the KC system with a 40 FV grade (Fangraphs). He had a 17.5 K-BB% in 45.1 AA innings and pitched just 1.1 innings at AAA with three of the seven batters he faced scoring with a walk and strikeout. The Indians have a 99 wRC+ vs LHP, but four in the projected lineup exceed a 27 K% vs LHP. Regardless of our expectations, Zerpa is a free square against a lineup that will likely provide some upside in a decent park.

Tonight's Top Arms in Very Similar Spots

Robbie Ray is the only pitcher to reach the $10K mark on both sites tonight and costs exactly that much on DraftKings at home against the Yankees, who have handled LHP extremely well this year (110 wRC+). Ray has improved on every facet of his game with a 32.5 K%, 6.7 BB% and even a 90.3 mph EV is an improvement on last year. With an 89.6 LOB%, his 2.68 ERA is about half a run below estimators that are tightly packed between a 3.14 SIERA to a 3.41 FIP and xERA. Can we call him the top pitcher on the board? It’s close, along with another arm we’ll talk about below.

Shane Bieber is the only other pitcher to reach $10K on either site, as he does so on DraftKings. Bieber struck out three of the nine batters he faced in his first major league action in over three months, keeping in line with his 33.9 K% this year. We shouldn’t expect too much more here, rendering him untouchable for daily fantasy purposes.

The only other pitcher reaching $9K on both sites on a nine game slate is Lance McCullers Jr.. The enviable parts of his game are a 27.3 K% and 55.7 GB%. The troubling parts, an 11.3 BB% and 90 mph EV, although the heavy ground ball lean has led to just 5.3% Barrels/BBE. While the run prevention isn’t elite and the control issues sometimes prevent him from getting through six innings, he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in an outing since April and has eight quality starts in his 14 attempts. His 3.17 ERA is below estimators that reach as high as a 4.02 SIERA. McCullers actually has a similar matchup (Rays 111 wRC+ vs RHP) in a similar retractable dome near neutral run environment. A quick peak at PlateIQ tells us that McCullers has a two point advantage in projected opposing lineup strikeout rates when averaged. Another small difference is in umpiring assignments with a hitter friendly umpire in Toronto, but a pitcher friendly one in Houston. Considering similar upside, McCullers may be the best value tonight.

The only other arm to reach $9K on either site is Joe Ryan, who struck out 11 of 18 Cubs last time out and 25 of 78 overall with all four starts being against either the Cubs or Indians. Ryan’s 28.2 K-BB% through four starts is actually less than his rate for two different organizations at AAA this year. Only 26% of his contact has been on the ground with five barrels (10%), yet a 2.23 xERA is actually his lowest estimator. A home matchup with the Tigers (90 wRC+ vs RHP) is no step up in competition and five in the projected lineup exceed a 23.5 K%, but Ryan has faced more than 19 batters once with a high of 89 pitches in his first start. He is slightly interesting on this slate though.

Two Pitchers with Awful Platoon Splits

This is a strong pitcher’s slate featuring not only good/great pitching, but a large majority of negative run environments with one standout offense. There aren’t a lot of great matchups for bats, so players are going to have to take what we can get, sometimes with below average offense. Let’s highlight a couple of those offenses with favorable matchup numbers tonight. The Cleveland offense has a 99 wRC+ vs LHP in a what appears to be a neutral run environment in Kansas City, which already puts them far ahead of most the pack. In fact, a 4.5 implied run line puts them 10th among 26 teams tonight. With a 12.0 SwStr%, you’d expect Daniel Lynch to exceed his 18.0 K% by quite a bit. A 9.9 BB% isn’t helping and when contact is made, it’s often fairly loud (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 90.2 mph EV). His best estimator and only one below five is a 4.86 FIP. Statcast is confirming the quality of that contact for RHBs (.375 wOBA, .377 xwOBA) and he’s projected to face nine of them tonight. Jose Ramirez (141 wRC+, .245 ISO) is the unquestioned top bat here, but quite expensive. Franmil Reyes (132 wRC+, .264 ISO) is a bit cheaper, while they can be supplemented with Amed Rosario (129 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Harold Ramirez (115 wRC+, .162 ISO), who costs near the minimum.

With only a league average strikeout rate this year (22.9%), Elieser Hernandez’s contact profile is a bit more concerning. He’s allowed 12 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 13 barrels (9.2%) in 46.2 innings. Currently expected weather conditions make Citi Field a firmly negative run environment tonight, but LHBs have blasted Ramirez for a .407 wOBA and .373 xwOBA that’s more than 100 points what he’s held RHBs to. With a 4.29 run team total the Mets sit smack in the middle of the board and this projected lineup does have several above average LHBs, including Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP), Michael Conforto (116 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Jonathan Villar (112 wRC+, .201 ISO), all for $3.3K or less on either site. And also the $300 million shortstop, Francisco Lindor (107 wRC+, .189 ISO), much more expensively because somebody’s gotta pay that contract.

Cheap Bats in a Great Spot

We’re not going to find many useful, cheap arms tonight, which amplifies the need for cheaper bats. This generally means we have to rely on some smaller samples or below average bats in high upside spots and that’s pretty much what we’re dealing with in Texas tonight. Janson Junk has struck out five of 51 batters with as many home runs allowed and a high of 61 pitches in his three starts. LHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him in a small sample and Texas only has three of those in the projected lineup with a wRC+ above 95 against RHP this year. However, those three range from fairly to extremely cheap in a lineup with a 4.63 team total that’s currently sixth best on the board. Nathaniel Lowe (115 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP) costs $4.4K on DraftKings, but that is the only price tag among the three above $3K on either site. DJ Peters (101 wRC+, .267 ISO) has flashed some power, while Willie Calhoun (101 wRC+, .124 ISO) costs the minimum on both sites and is projected to bat leadoff. It may not be pretty, but a left-handed Texas stack is going to allow you to do a lot of things with the rest of your lineup.

Great Career Results Against Two Quality Pitchers

Aaron Nola and Max Fried are two quality pitchers facing off in a very important game that may help decide the NL East. These are rarely pitchers we’re looking to attack, but there are some interesting things that stand out here. First of all, after factoring in weather with park effects, Atlanta may be the second most positive run environment on the board behind only Baltimore tonight. In fact, it may be the only other park on the board you can even call a positive run environment tonight. Secondly, a quick glance at the Daily Matchups page on Baseball Savant features several batters with strong results against these pitchers tonight. Nola has had some struggles with strand rate and RHBs have been near average with a .304 wOBA and .297 xwOBA against him this year. He’s actually been better against LHBs (.288/.267), but a pair of Braves in the middle of the order have had great career success against him. Freddie Freeman (150 wRC+, .224 ISO) punishes most RHPs, but in a large enough sample (65 PAs), he has a five extra base hits (two home runs) with a .404 xwOBA and 91.9 mph EV against Nola. Austin Riley (145 wRC+, .247 ISO) has had a break out season and has even more extra-base hits against Nola (six with three home runs) in just 25 PAs (.462 xwOBA, 93.9 mph EV). On the other side, Max Fried has been better against RHBs (.274 wOBA, .286 xwOBA), which may explain why Bryce Harper (126 wRC+, .152 ISO vs LHP) has handled him so well with two doubles and a home run in 21 PAs (.557 xwOBA, 89.9 mph EV). That might be a small sample, but you can rarely go wrong with Harper this season and he does hit same-handed pitching very well. J.T. Realmuto (102 wRC+, .159 ISO) has been merely average against LHP, but not this LHP (25 PAs – 6 XBH – 3 HR – .420 xwOBA – 90.5 mph EV). As noted at the top, these generally aren’t two pitchers we look to attack, but circumstances tonight suggest it might be worth a shot on this slate.

Clear Top Offense Tonight, But There Are Alternatives

Lots of strong pitching in several games with major playoff implications and the Boston Red Sox are far and away the top offense on the board at 5.92 implied runs on a slate that does not include Coors. It’s nearly a three quarter run drop off to the Dodgers with a 5.2 run team total that’s second best with only two more teams even above 4.75 runs. Part of that is due to the strong pitching, but also a lot of pitcher friendly weather and many negative run environments. The Red Sox didn’t get it done as the number two offense last night, but are in the same smash spot tonight. Zac Lowther struck out a season high seven of 19 Rangers over five shutout innings last time out, but just two of 15 Red Sox with three runs in 3.1 innings the start before. A 22.2 K% is nearly league average, but an 11.1 BB% and 92.2 mph EV (12.2% Barrels/BBE) is a major concern, though just 24.2 innings. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and of course, he’s backed by the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days (6.62 ERA/5.36 FIP/5.45 xFIP/4.95 SIERA) and with the Nationals off the board, it’s not even close. Like yesterday, Christian Vazquez is the only batter in the projected Boston lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year. This lineup provides some of the slate’s top bats like Enrique Hernandez (125 wRC+, .223 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (122 wRC+, .164 ISO vs LHP), Hunter Renfroe (139 wRC+, .237 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (110 wRC+, .199 ISO) with some more affordable ones, like Bobby Dalbec (129 wRC+, .263 ISO) and even Jose Iglesias (112 wRC+, .153 ISO), making them nearly impossible to fade tonight.

If you’re looking for a pivot offense though, the Twins (5.14 implied runs) jump out a bit tonight. Casey Mize’s last four starts have all gone exactly three innings, as they wind him down. He’ll likely face 10-15 batters with LHBs punishing him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 this year. The small workload might complicate things and a first look at the Detroit bullpen over the last 30 days might suggest it’s one to avoid with a 3.38 ERA and 4.06 FIP. However, additional estimators like a 5.07 xFIP and 4.86 SIERA make this matchup more attractive. Jorge Polanco (126 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP) is the most interesting bat here, but Max Kepler (117 wRC+, .248 ISO) is much cheaper, while Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .331 ISO), Mitch Garver (173 wRC+, .288 ISO) and Miguel Sano (117 wRC+, .310 ISO) have smashed RHP this year and projected leadoff man Luis Arraez (105 wRC+) costs just $2.1K on FanDuel.

Middle of the Board Has Interesting Arms with Playoff Implications Too

A lot of fun at the top of the board with several big name pitchers pitching in games with major playoff implications tonight, but now we have to answer the question if there’s anything useful below them. Alex Wood is below $8K on either site in a strong matchup in another game with major playoff implications. He has struck out 11 of 29 batters without a walk in two starts back from the IL and probably needs one more start to be back to a normal workload though, with 61 pitches last time out. It’s been a strong season for him with a 19.0 K-BB%, 50.7 GB% and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. His 4.00 ERA is above all estimators, most by nearly half a run, but none by more than half a run. Is he cheap enough to be DFS useful with an assumed 75-80 pitch count tonight? He pitches in a negative run environment and may be slightly weather aided (Weather Edge), while Arizona has a 78 wRC+ on the road, but 98 wRC+ vs LHP, although nobody in the projected lineup exceeds a 19.8 K% against LHP. That last factor in addition to the limited workload likely rules Wood out.

Luis Garcia has struck out just six of his last 67 batters with eight walks. This is obviously concerning, but his season numbers are still stellar (26.4 K%, 5.7% Barrels/BBE) with all estimators below four. In a neutral park against a good offense (Rays 110 wRC+ vs RHP), it’s tough to trust a pitcher who generally doesn’t go deep in games for more than $8K here. Max Fried is near $9K on both sites and offers enough strikeouts (23.7%) with good control (6.4 BB%) and lots of weak (86.5 mph EV) ground balls (51.5%). His worst estimator is a 3.79 SIERA. However, he pitches in an unfavorable run environment with only two batters in the opposing lineup above an 18.5 K% vs LHP this year. Elieser Hernandez is less than $7.5K with a league average strikeout rate (22.9 K%) in a weather aided negative run environment against an average offense (Mets 97 wRC+ vs RHP) with marginal strikeout rates, but the contact profile is a problem. He’s allowed 12 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 13 barrels (9.2%) in 46.2 innings. Zach Plesac had allowed 20 home runs over his last 107.1 innings this season, but two over his last 29.1 innings, while bumping his strikeout rate up to 20.8% with an 11.7 SwStr% over that span as well. Unfortunately, he has just a 17.2 K% on the season, resulting in a 4.54 ERA that runs very close to his estimators. However, he doesn’t cost much more than $7K in a neutral run environment and five in the projected opposing lineup above a 26 K% vs RHP.

Logan Gilbert is $100 to $200 above $7.5K. You wouldn’t know it by his 4.83 ERA, but Gilbert has had a very successful rookie season going by a 20.4 K-BB%. The contact profile isn’t ideal (89.9 mph EV, 33 GB%), but his worst estimator is still a better than average 4.11 xFIP. He pitches in a great park with a marginal matchup (A’s 102 wRC+ vs RHP) with four batters in the projected opposing lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs RHP. If you’re dropping below $8K, Gilbert is probably your top option.

A bit more expensively, but still below $9K, Nathan Eovaldi had a 33.3 K% (4.2 BB%) in the eight starts leading up to his last start. He proceeded to face 17 Yankees, putting nine on base with seven crossing the plate without a single strikeout and two walks. A 93.4 mph EV was his second highest single game average this season (his highest was also against the Yankees). Even if we consider this last start a blip and base our decision on a 20.8 K-BB%, 6.4% Barrels/BBE and estimators no higher than a 3.62 SIERA, we have to note that Eovaldi has only completed six innings in four of his last 11 starts. He’s also pitching in a tough park with an unfriendly umpire, but the Orioles have just an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and there is just one batter in the projected lineup below a 23.5 K% vs RHP.

Lastly, purely as an SP2 option on DraftKings, Taijuan Walker has allowed an astonishing 20 home runs on 28 barrels (15.9%) over his last 56.2 innings pitched (6.99 ERA/7.08 FIP). His 4.57 ERA on the season correlates very closely with all non-DRA estimators. However, he costs less than $7K in a tremendous spot in a great park. The Marlins have an 80 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected Miami lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP.

Top of the Board Has Major Post-Season Implications on Wednesday

Three pitchers reach the $10K mark on Wednesday’s 13 game slate and all three do so on both sites. The top pitcher and most expensive one on the board is Max Scherzer, $500 more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel at $11.5K. Although he got smacked around for five runs at Coors last time out, a total that actually doubles the amount of earned runs he’s allowed in a Dodger uniform, Scherzer has a ridiculous 35.7 K%, 3.4 BB% and 85.3 mph EV since the trade. For the season, his 2.28 ERA is about half a run below estimators (.237 BABIP, 85.9 LOB%). The matchup is somewhat neutral from a run prevention standpoint (Padres 99 wRC+ vs RHP) without a lot of strikeouts (only three in projected lineup exceed a 20.2 K% vs RHP), but Scherzer could get a small weather boost turning Dodger Stadium into a firmly negative run environment with a pitcher friendly umpire tonight. He basically has everything except for opposing strikeout rates in his favor and with a pitcher of this caliber, that’s not really much of a concern. Without regard to ownership concerns, finding a way to pay up for Scherzer is generally a good idea.

Gerrit Cole also reaches $11K on FanDuel, but is only third most expensive on DraftKings. Since striking out 15 Angels five starts back, Gerrit Cole has struck out just 22 of 91 batters (11.7 SwStr%) with nine walks and four home runs, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) over 20.1 innings. He also left his next start (against the Blue Jays) early with a hamstring issue. Could that still be lingering? His 3.08 ERA is above, but within a quarter run of all estimators this season. He gets a lateral park shift (the Rogers Centre and Yankee Stadium have the same near neutral, slightly negative run factor via Statcast), but the matchup is awful. The Blue Jays have a 111 wRC+ vs RHP with only one batter in the projected lineup above a 21.5 K% against them this year. Cole is probably best utilized as an ownership pivot off Scherzer in GPPs.

Carlos Rodon is a bit above $10K on either site. He has been struggling with a nagging arm injury, making less than a start per week in September and being pulled after just three innings from his most recent one, but he has struck out 13 of his last 35 batters with just an 82.3 mph EV. Had it not been for the late season injury issues, Rodon has put up Cy Young quality numbers, including a 35.1 K% with no estimator higher than a 3.03 xFIP. Whlie the White Sox are still jockeying a bit for post-season seeding, they really have little incentive beyond making sure Rodon is healthy here, which makes him virtually unusable. However, for the sake of being complete, the Reds have an 89 wRC+ on the road, 81 wRC+ vs LHP and while only three batters in the projected Cincinnati lineup exceed a 21.3 K% vs LHP, all three also exceed a 27 K%. Pitcher friendly weather likely gives Rodon a negative run environment to work with tonight.

Lastly, Aaron Nola and Frankie Montas both exceed $9K on both sites, while Jose Berrios misses by $100 on DraftKings. All three are pitching in games with significant post-season implications, which is going to stretch this post a bit. The strikeouts are there for Nola (30.3% on the year and 27 of his last 68), but he just can’t seem to strand runners (66.8%), resulting in a 4.64 ERA that’s at least a run and a quarter above all of his estimators. He’s also dealing with a positive run environment against a solid offense (Braves 100 wRC+ vs RHP) with half the projected lineup above a 24 K% vs RHP. Considering the gap between his estimators and actual results, the lower price tag still affords him some value here, more particularly on FanDuel for $9.2K.

Over his last 14 starts, Montas has a 30.5 K%, failing to produce a quality start just twice. The contact profile still leaves a bit to be desired (89.5 mph EV, 8.8% Barrels/BBE), resulting in his only estimator above four this season (4.06 xERA). He is in a great spot in potentially the most negative run environment on the board against an offense with a 91 wRC+ at home and 94 wRC+ vs RHP. The projected lineup for the Mariners includes just three batters below a 21.9 K% vs RHP, but also only three above 24%. Montas could be a great value here and possibly even the second best pitcher on the board, all factors included.

Last time out was the first time Berrios failed to record at least two seventh inning in six starts, but he still recorded a sixth straight quality start. With a 20.1 K-BB% and 3.48 ERA that’s below all estimators, but only more than a half run below a 4.17 xERA, his biggest issue has been a struggle with LHBs (.343 wOBA, .228 ISO), but the Yankees don’t have many of those. In a near neutral run environment, he’ll be facing an offense with a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with four batters above a 24 K% vs RHP, but also four below 21%. Berrios seems accurately priced, but could also be another ownership pivot for GPP players if it looks like ownership will be in the single digits.

Willy Adames (quad) scratched Tuesday

Adames has been scratched from the Brewers lineup as a precautionary measure due to reported left quad discomfort, which is the same quad that landed him on the injured list earlier this month. In his absence, Luis Urias will take over the shortstop duties and slot into the sixth spot in the batting order this evening.

Going Contrarian Against a Pair of Top Lefties

A number of cheap bats among the top projected offenses could make batter ownership more concentrated than you would usually expect on a 13 game slate, but there are a few opportunities to go a bit contrarian and embrace a bit of risk against some pitchers players wouldn’t normally attack with the statistics to back it up. First off, even including his six shutout innings against these Yankees (three hits, six strikeouts), Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 22 runs and seven home runs (14.5% Barrels/BBE, 92.2 mph EV) over his last 19.2 innings. He’s not been the same this year and RHBs have been a bit better than league average against him (.315 wOBA, .321 xwOBA). The middle of this Yankee lineup is loaded against LHP and hot. Aaron Judge (152 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP) remains your top bat, but Giancarlo Stanton (146 wRC+, .236 ISO) costs about $500 less and has a 190 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He hit a few at Fenway that still haven’t come down. Gary Sanchez (125 wRC+, .282 ISO) has three home runs and a double in 12 career PAs against Ryu.

Admittedly, the Yankees aren’t much of a stretch here. With a 4.27 implied run line, they’re actually right smack in the middle of the board tonight, but the Orioles (3.51 team total) are close to the bottom. Who’s crazy enough to attack Chris Sale? However, consider that the O’s have homered three times in 37 PAs against him this year with just nine strikeouts. It’s a positive run environment, Sale has just a 20.7 K% over his last four starts and the Orioles have a few cheap right-handed hammers against LHP. That includes Trey Mancini (144 wRC+, .257 ISO), Austin Hays (140 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Pedro Severino (121 wRC+, .194 ISO) all costing $3.5K or less. Although Baltimore stacks aren’t really recommended, you’ll probably be alone with a few cheap home run threats here.