DFS Alerts

A Reverse Platoon Split with Contact Profile Issues is not Ideal in this Spot

Both FanDuel and DraftKings are making it really hard to get away from the top offenses on the board with the three teams that separate themselves up top (Rockies, Red Sox and Nationals) not only having the top bats in great matchups tonight, but several cheap ones as well, making these stacks fairly easy. One interesting a bit lower on the board, the Astros have a 4.74 implied run line against the Rays that still has them a top seven offense tonight. Michael Wacha has spiked his strikeout rate to 30.6% with just a 3.3 BB% over his last 29.1 innings, but contact problems still persist with a 91.1 mph EV and five home runs over this span. Season estimators range widely from a 5.84 xERA that’s actually above his 5.49 ERA, all the way down to a 3.90 xFIP. Costing just $6.3K on DraftKings, you might even be able to consider Wacha a punt pitching option with that kind of upside here, but as a pitcher with a reverse split (RHBs .367 wOBA, .373 xwOBA) this is also a pretty strong spot for Houston bats, considering that contact profile. In fact, there’s a possible lineup construction on DraftKings that might include both a Rockies/Red Sox stack with room for a more costly Jose Altuve (135 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP) and Alex Bregman (114 wRC+, .154 ISO) and then say A.J. Alexy in a high upside matchup and Charlie Morton in your pitching spots. If you want to go further in on a Houston stack, Carlos Correa (131 wRC, .227 ISO) and Chas McCormick (105 wRC+, .170 ISO) are additional bats you might want to consider, the latter costing $2.7K or less on either site.

Two Offenses Separate Themselves Atop a Pitching Heavy Board

On a 13 game slate, we find the Rockies and Red Sox hovering around six implied runs atop the board before a half run drop off to the Nationals (at Coors) with only two more teams above five (Giants & White Sox) on a strong pitching slate. In fact, only two other teams have totals above 4.5 runs (Astros & Blue Jays). The two teams at the top should be no surprise. The Rockies haven’t done much offensively this year, even at home (89 wRC+), but they are better against LHP (94 wRC+) and Patrick Corbin brings a 10.6 K-BB% and 9.2% Barrels/BBE to Coors. RHBs have a .386 wOBA and .376 xwOBA against him this year. Projected to bat leadoff, Garrett Hampson (110 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP) may be one of the top overall bats on the board and costs less than $3K on either site. Trevor Story (130 wRC+, .298 ISO) and C.J. Cron (148 wRC+, .279 ISO) join him at the top of the board with the latter costing just $3.6K on DraftKings.

The Red Sox travel to Baltimore for Bruce Zimmermann’s first major league pitches since June 13th. With a marginal 12.6 K-BB%, 9.6% Barrels/BBE had done him in, his best estimator being a 4.27 xFIP. Nagging injuries haven’t helped either. He struck out six of 15 in his most recent rehab start. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .349 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and your concerned he may not go very deep into this game, the Orioles have the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days (7.06 ERA/5.48 FIP/5.55 xFIP/5.05 SIERA). Incidentally, the Washington bullpen isn’t much better (6.20/5.97/5.02/4.59), but the Nationals figure they’re paying Corbin a lot of money, so why not let him earn it by eating up unimportant innings, no matter the results. As for Boston, everyone in the projected lineup outside Christian Vazquez owns a wRC+ above 100 against LHP this year. Consider Hunter Renfroe (139 wRC+, .240 ISO), Enrique Hernandez (127 wRC+, .226 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (125 wRC+, .166 ISO), J.D. Martinez (112 wRC+, .201 ISO) and even Bobby Dalbec (131 wRC+, .266 ISO) top of the board bats here. Dalbec is $3.1K or less on either site.

Upside and Favorable Spots for Lower Priced Pitchers

Considering that seven pitchers cost at least $8.8K on both sites, you wouldn’t think there’d be much more to discuss on a 13 game slate, but that wouldn’t be true. We’ll break the remaining options down into two categories: those who can stand on their own and SP2s. Charlie Morton has thrown quality starts in eight of his last 10 and has a 20.4 K-BB% with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE on the year. Only a 3.07 DRA is more than a quarter run removed from his 3.53 ERA. The Braves need these home games against the Phillies (94 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs RHP), but only three batters in the opposing projected lineup exceed a 20 K% vs RHP this year in a positive run environment. Considering the cost though ($8.6K on FD), Morton is a reasonable pivot for those looking to add offense to their lineups.

Brady Singer has had some BABIP problems this year (.346), leading to a 4.72 ERA that’s above all of his estimators, the highest being a 4.50 xERA. However, he’s allowed just 5.7% Barrels/BBE this year with half his contact on the ground (50.1%). Over his last six starts, he has a 16.1 K-BB% with just a .286 BABIP and 80.8 LOB% driving his ERA (2.97) below estimators over this span. None of that is great and neither team is playing for anything, but they haven’t been for quite a while. It’s a power suppressing, neutral run environment at a moderate cost (within $300 of $8K on either site) and the projected lineup for Cleveland includes five batters exceeding a 27 K% vs RHP this year. That last part is the key here.

Chris Bassitt & Jose Urquidy would be interesting options if we knew the workload would be there, but Bassitt emerged from his first start in over a month with a scoreless three innings (48 pitches), allowing just a single hit and walk, while striking out four batters. Urquidy has allowed nine runs over 18.1 innings in four starts since returning from the IL. From a positive standpoint, the A’s, Astros (and even Mariners) are still fighting for something, though that’s probably still not enough to get either of these pitchers deep enough into their games tonight.

The matchup in Texas between the Angels and Rangers may be most interesting for those looking for a cheap SP2. A.J. Alexy struck out one-third of the 57 batters he faced at AAA after 28.8% in 50.1 AA innings, but the transition to the majors has been a bit rougher. He’s struck out 15 of 78 with as many walks and just 22% of his contact on the ground. A 5.00 ERA is below all of his estimators, a 5.19 xERA the only one below six so far. However, Texas is a negative run environment with the roof closed and each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for the Angels have at least a 24.4 K% vs RHP this year. Packy Naughton has struck out just 12 of 95 batters with one less walk. Even with a 48.6 GB% and 87.3 mph EV, ERA and estimators all exceed five. Similar story, but the Rangers have a 79 wRC+ vs LHP and four in the projected lineup have at least a 27 K% against them this year.

Kyle Freeland & Michael Wacha are cheap pitchers in much tougher spots, but with some upside. Freeland’s start to start performances have been very volatile this year, though he does have two straight quality starts, striking out 12 of his last 50 batters with a 52.8 GB%. Season estimators are all within half a run of his 4.50 ERA without any standout metrics. The Nationals still have a few bats who have hit LHP well in smaller samples and not a lot of strikeouts, but Freeland is a near average pitcher for just $5.7K. Wacha is facing the Astros and has some major contact profile problems, but costs $6.6K with a 30.6% and 3.3 BB% over his last 29.1 innings.

Which Top Arms Still Have Something to Pitch For?

Zack Wheeler is the most expensive pitcher on slate, costing at least $10.5K on either site. The workload has been slightly less, but Wheeler’s allowed just three runs in 23.2 innings over his last four starts, striking out 32 of 95 batters with just five walks and an 83.4 mph Ev. Riding a 23.7 K-BB% and 84.6 mph EV for the season, estimators are all within half a run of his 2.79 ERA. There’s added importance in this start in Atlanta, so we might expect the Phillies to push Wheeler for everything he’s got tonight as he transitions from one positive run environment to another tonight. The Braves have an even 100 wRC+ at home and vs RHP with a projected lineup of middling strikeout rates. While we can’t say for certain that Wheeler’s the top pitcher on the board, he’s definitely a major part of that conversation and still likely a decent value.

Brandon Woodruff is the only other pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites. He has completed six innings with at least six strikeouts in five straight starts, only once failing to qualify for a quality start over that span. His 30.2 K% (24 K-BB%), 85.9 mph EV and 5.8% Barrels/BBE are probably overshadowed by Corbin Burnes. Even if a 2.52 ERA is below all estimators, a 3.26 SIERA and 3.21 xERA are nothing to scoff at. He gets a park upgrade against a below average offense (92 wRC+) in St Louis, but there are two concerns here. First, the Cardinals are red hot (142 wRC+ last seven days) and more importantly, the Brewers have absolutely nothing to play for this week. They’re locked into their spot as the second seed in the National League. This is nothing more than a tune up start for Woodruff. In a vacuum, he’d be a candidate for top overall arm and a decent value, but the Brewers have every reason to utilize caution with him tonight.

Chris Sale is exactly $10K on FanDuel tonight, the only other pitcher to reach that mark on either site, and $600 less on DraftKings. First impression might be that he’s one of the top arms on the board against the Orioles, but he’s struck out just nine of 37 Orioles in two starts against them, while allowing three home runs. It’s not a favorable park and the Orioles do have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, while only four in the projected lineup exceed a 22.3 K% vs LHP this year. Even after striking out eight of 22 Mets last time out, Sale still has just a 20.7 K% (11.5 SwStr%) over his last four starts. Just as interestingly, Sale has generated most his contact on the ground (51%) with an 84.3 mph EV. Estimators are about a run above his 2.57 ERA (.348 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%). Sale’s been fine, but not elite and may be over-priced here.

Adam Wainwright and Walker Buehler are the only other pitchers reaching $9K on both sites, though Logan Webb misses by $100 and Yu Darvish by $200. Wainwright was tagged for two home runs and five runs by the Brewers last time out and while the best defense in the league has helped him produce a 3.05 ERA that’s more than half a run lower than all of his estimators, he now has just a 13.6 K% over five September starts, making it a bit tougher for his defense to compensate. While the Cardinals haven’t clinched, they’re pretty much locked into that second wild card spot and don’t have much incentive to push Wainwright either here. With limited upside, your betting on workload and defense, making him difficult to recommend in this spot. Buehler has just a 15.7 K% over his last five starts, failing to compete four innings twice in his last four after having failed to complete six in just one start previously this year. He’s been a bit fortunate with a 2.47 BABIP and 80.4 LOB% this season. All estimators are more than half a run above his 2.58 ERA, the worst being a 3.79 SIERA. The positive is that the Dodgers are still fighting to stay out of the Wild Card game, but as Buehler will likely hit the 200 inning mark in this game, the drop in strikeout rate is concerning and just three batters in the projected San Diego lineup exceed a 20 K% vs RHP this year.

We’re covering a lot here, but just two left. Darvish has struck out at least seven in six innings or more with no more than a single run in two of his last four starts. He also still has a 6.78 ERA with a 5.15 FIP, but 3.73 xFIP since the start of July. Those two recent quality starts are the only ones over this span in which he hasn’t allowed a home runs. With a 29.2 K%, all estimators are below four on the season. His incentive may be keeping the Dodgers away from a division title, but the highest strikeout rate in the projected lineup is 22.4%. It was an uncharacteristically poor start for Webb against Padres last time out, just his second non-quality start in his last 12. He’s simply been the best pitcher on the best team in baseball with a 26.2 K%, 61.3 GB% and 6% Barrels/BBE. A 3.04 ERA is within a quarter of a run of all estimators. He checks all the boxes tonight. Negative run environment, favorable matchup (Arizona 78 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP), strikeouts (five in projected lineup above 22% vs RHP), incentive (the Giants have a two game lead in the West). Webb may not only be the top value on the board, but potentially in the conversation with Wheeler (and maybe Woodruff) for the top overall spot tonight.

Joey Votto (knee) scratched Saturday

Joey Votto (knee) scratched Saturday

Don't Let the Negative Run Environment Scare You

With the Giants the easy answer at the top the board (7.32 implied runs) and the Dodgers the most obvious pivot (5.74) perhaps the Rays (5.41) could go under-owned in a negative run environment in a spot where they shouldn’t be ignored. Edward Cabrera’s 10.6 SwStr% is nearly average and suggests improvement to a 17.4 K% after striking out more than 30% at both AA and AAA this year. The 14.1 BB% is a problem though with all estimators above five, including an (OUCH) 10.47 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .420 xwOBA against him so far. Consider Ji-Man Choi (142 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP) one of the top values on the board ($3.3K DK/$2.5K FD) and Brandon Lowe (151 wRC+, .291 ISO) one of the top overall bats outside Coors. In fact, each of the first six batters in the projected lineup for Tampa Bay have at least a 110 wRC+ vs RHP with an ISO exceeding .150 and that’s not even accounting for the possibility that Wander Franco returns tonight. Should Cabrera take an early exit tonight, the Miami bullpen does have just a 2.89 ERA over the last 30 days, but a 4.50 xFIP.

Bats Were Quiet Last Night, but Another Smash Spot Tonight

There’s a clear answer on tonight’s slate if ownership is of no concern. That’s because the Giants (110 wRC+ vs RHP) are playing at Coors and facing a pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery. Peter Lambert started 19 games for the Rockies in 2019 (5.0 K-BB%, 47.3 GB%, 89.8 mph EV, 5.0% Barrels/BBE). He’s started seven games across three minor league levels, encompassing 16 total innings this year, striking out 19 of 71 batters faced. The Giants have a 7.32 implied run line that clears every other team by more than a run and a half and everyone but the Dodgers (5.74) by nearly two. Affordability may not even be much of an issue because there are plenty of reasons to fade the highest priced pitchers and no San Francisco hitter costs more than $4K on FanDuel.

For those concerned with things like affordability and ownership (which is less of an issue for bats on a 13-15 game slate), attacking the Baltimore pitching staff in Baltimore is generally a solid idea (even if it didn’t work out last night). The Orioles are giving the Rangers another shot at below average lefty. In 31.2 major league innings, Alex Wells has just a 14.8 K%, 24.1 GB% and 90.3 mph EV with eight home runs on 10 barrels. He has a single estimator (5.63 SIERA) below six. The projected Texas lineup only includes three batters above a 100 wRC+ and two above a .150 ISO against LHP, yet still have a 4.75 run team total that’s tied for 8th best on the board (7th on FanDuel). Part of that is because RHBs have a .449 wOBA and .425 xwOBA against Wells. Part of it is because the Baltimore bullpen has a 6.85 ERA, 5.57 FIP, 5.56 xFIP and 4.99 SIERA over the last 30 days. In addition to that, Tyler Wells and co-closer Cole Sulser have been heavily worked this week and may not be available tonight, so the Rangers are likely facing the middle and bottom of the worst bullpen in baseball behind a pitcher who has been mauled by RHBs in a great hitting park. To help make up for the fact that Texas bats aren’t normally very good against LHP, they’re exceptionally cheap. Andy Ibanez (137 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel, the same as Nick Solak (109 wRC+, .109 ISO, .349 xwOBA), who’s just $500 more on DraftKings. A Texas stack is probably going to give you access to whatever else you want to do in that particular lineup.

Concerning the Two Games Complicating the DraftKings Slate

Two games appear on the docket on DraftKings, but not on FanDuel. That is because one is the second game of a double header at Wrigley and the other is the regularly scheduled game following the completion of a suspended game in San Diego. The second game of the double-header at Wrigley complicates the DraftKings slate because it’s a great hitting spot with the current forecast calling for 20 mph winds blowing out to left field. The easy part is that we can ignore Jack Flaherty returning from injury, but on the other side, Zach Davies will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup. That Davies has no split (LHBs .360 wOBA, RHBs .361) actually hurts him quite a bit here. The downside, of course, is that in a seven inning game, you probably lose a plate appearance, which is kind of a big deal here, but perhaps the offensive production still gives us four to five trips though the St Louis order? Our best indicator is that the Cardinals still have a 4.92 run team total that’s seventh best on the board.

The game in San Diego may be even more complicated, but is more easily ignored. A press release by the Braves after the initially suspended game stated that the first game would resume and last seven innings, while the regularly scheduled one to follow will be a full nine. We know that Max Fried will be pitching for the Braves in the regularly scheduled game that appears on DraftKings. That’s about all we know. The Padres have not yet named a starter, who will likely be an opener and lineups will not be available before lock because the suspended game doesn’t even resume until an hour after lock. We won’t know who’s pitching. We won’t know who’s hitting. It could even go extra innings. Thankfully, it’s a game that wouldn’t normally be of much interest to daily fantasy players anyway.

Lower Priced Pitching with a 20+ K-BB%

Considering the complications at the top of the board tonight (injuries, weather, matchups), tonight might be an ideal night to consider paying down for your pitching needs (in GPPs at least). Kyle Gibson has suddenly struck out 16 of his last 47 batters (Mets and Cubs) with swinging strike rates of 22% and 5.2% in his last two starts. Make of that what you will, considering he has just two other double digit SwStr% effort with the Phillies. He has continued to generate lots of contact on the ground (54.4%), but perhaps that’s part of the problem (4.76 ERA) with that Philadelphia defense behind him. Season estimators range from a 3.80 xERA to a 4.44 SIERA, all a bit above the 3.51 ERA. Despite the difficult park, he’s in a great spot. The Pirates have a 76 wRC+ on the road, 83 wRC+ vs RHP and the projected lineup includes six batters with at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year.

After the Cardinals touched him up for six runs in three innings, Tylor Megill was given an extra few days off and hasn’t pitched in over a week. Missing bats has not been a problem (26.6 K%, 20.2 K-BB%), but the contact profile is (90 mph EV, 9.3% Barrels/BBE). He’s allowed 11 home runs and 17 barrels (14.7%) over his last three starts. However a 3.72 SIERA matches a 3.72 xERA well below his 4.57 ERA. He carries upside with risk in Milwaukee (86 wRC+ at home, 92 wRC+ vs RHP), but costs less than $8K on FanDuel.

After three consecutive starts in which he allowed at least five runs in each, Logan Gilbert has allowed a total of five over his last four (22.1 IP), the biggest underlying change being five home runs allowed vs two. He’s struck out 23, while walking just there of his last 89 batters with a 19 GB%, but 87.4 mph EV. In a rookie year that has included 22 starts so far, Gilbert owns an impressive 21.3 K-BB% with all estimators more than half a run below his 4.74 ERA (67 LOB%). In fact, a 4.05 xFIP is his only estimator exceeding four. The Angels have just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP, 58 wRC+ over the last seven days and the projected lineup includes just one batter below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Costing just $6.4K on DraftKings, Gilbert may be the top lower priced value on the board.

Looking at SP2 candidates on DraftKings, Bailey Ober (19.8 K-BB% through 19 starts) costs just $6.7K, but has some issues in his contact profile. He’s allowed 19 home runs (17 HR/FB) on 24 barrels (9.6%) and faces the Blue Jays. You may not be able to call Jose Suarez an above average starting option, but he’s surely been at least competent over 12 starts with an 11 K-BB%, 86.8 mph EV, 4.43 ERA and 4.44 xFIP. He also costs only $6.3K against the Mariners (93 wRC+ vs LHP, five in projected lineup above a 23 K% vs LHP). Although it comes with just one quality start, due to workload issues, Paolo Espino has a 29.7 K% (21.9 K-BB%) with a 3.45 ERA and xFIP over his last six starts. He’s in a tough spot in Cincinnati (Reds 104 wRC+ at home, 103 wRC+ vs RHP, only three projected batters above a 21.3 K% vs RHP), but costs just $6.6K.

Top of the Board is Loaded with Complications on Friday Night

There are many elements complicating Friday night’s slate, which is the full 15 games, including the second game of the double-header at Wrigley and the regularly scheduled game after the completion of a suspended one in San Diego on DraftKings, while FanDuel will go with a less complicated 13 games. We also have some big name pitchers working their way back from injury (Shane Bieber, Alex Wood, Jack Flaherty), teams who are being more conservative with their young arms to close out the season (Casey Mize, Spencer Howard) and weather, of course. Two pitchers exceed $10K on both sites tonight and there are major issues in either case. To start with, Shane Bieber takes a major league mound for the first time in over three months tonight, striking out seven of 26 batters over two rehab starts. Even if the White Sox clinched last night and could be fielding a “lesser” lineup, Bieber can’t be expected to take on nearly the workload that would make him rosterable at this price.

Since leaving a start against the Blue Jays early with a hamstring injury, Gerrit Cole has struck out 14 of his last 49 batters, but allowed two home runs and seven runs to Cleveland last time out with a .500 BABIP, but just an 84.3 mph EV. The Yankee fans naturally booed a guy with a 3.03 ERA and 28.6 K-BB% without a single estimator reaching three. Neither recent performance, nor hamstring issues are the main reasons for concern here, but the fact that he’s pitching at Fenway under hitter friendly conditions, according to Weather Edge (though that could change) with the potential for a delay (currently YELLOW/ORANGE) are factors in our pitching decisions tonight. The Red Sox have a 118 wRC+ at home, 110 wRC+ vs RHP and league high 169 wRC+ over the last seven days. The projected lineup includes just four batters above a 19 K% vs RHP this year. This is probably the worst pitching spot on the board outside Coors. In fact, it’s fairly telling that Boston sits in the middle of the board, at 4.4 implied runs against the potential Cy Young award winner. There are so many reasons to fade Cole in this spot that he makes a great GPP play should ownership projections drop low enough.

Frankie Montas and Nathan Eovaldi each reach the $10K mark on one site tonight. For Montas, it’s DraftKings, while costing $1.3K less on FanDuel. He has failed to record multiple seventh inning outs (or a quality start) in just one of his last six starts and has allowed more than three runs in just one of his last 15. With a heavy workload and 26.5 K%, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.57 ERA. This is great! Pitching in an negative run environment, he must be our guy tonight, right? Hold on because he’s facing the Astros (115 wRC+ on the road, 117 wRC+ vs RHP). While each of the last three batters in the projected lineup exceeds a 28 K% vs RHP this year, only one of the first six is above 20.2%.

Eovaldi faces the same environmental issues as Cole, but has the superior matchup (Yankees 99 wRC+ vs RHP, four of nine projected exceed a 25 K% vs RHP). He also has a 30.9 K% (26.8 K-BB%) over his last 13 starts with a 3.79 ERA that’s more than a half run above estimators over that span with a .326 BABIP and 72 LOB%. On the season, a 3.58 ERA is just slightly above his worst estimator, a 3.53 SIERA. Should the weather outlook improve, Eovaldi could be an interesting arm tonight with just a $300 difference in price between sites.

While Jose Berrios exceeds $9K on both sites in his trip back to Minnesota, Dylan Cease costs exactly that much on either site and has struck out at least nine in three of his last four starts. He is up to a 31.6 K% this season, but with a more inconsistent walk rate (11.2%) over his last eight starts. He still has a 21.8 K-BB% with estimators about half a run below his 4.09 ERA on the season. As a bit of trivia, he’s allowed exactly four hits in seven straight starts. As mentioned before, the White Sox did clinch the division last night. Will that have an effect on Cease’s workload here? If not, he may be the top value on the board. The Indians have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and five of nine in their projected lineup have a strikeout rate above 27.5% vs RHP this year.

Top Lineup Has Great Career Numbers Against Tonight's Opposing Pitcher

Consulting Weather Edge suggests the worst hitting conditions on the board by a fair amount probably reside in the Toronto/Minnesota game, but there are still some interesting bits of information concerning the bats in that game. Specifically their career totals against tonight’s starting pitchers. Steven Matz has pitched well enough for the Blue Jays, decreasing home runs behind increased sinker usage, but Josh Donaldson (140 wRC+, .287 ISO vs LHP) is someone who has hit well against him with three home runs in 17 PAs and a 97 mph EV on 12 BBEs. Most of those plate appearances occurring fairly recently during their NL East battles. Michael Pineda has not been as successful this year with a 90.1 mph EV, 40.6 GB% and strikeout rate below 20%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .320 xwOBA against him and there are three batters in the projected lineup for Toronto with multiple career home runs against him. The smallest sample belongs to Jake Lamb (95 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) with two (plus a double) in just eight PAs. He could be interesting as a punt play for $2.3K or less. The only other projected LHB for the Blue Jays tonight, Corey Dickerson (98 wRC+, .136 ISO), has displayed little power this year, but has two home runs (plus three doubles) in 19 PAs against Pineda. Lastly, George Springer (122 wRC+, .289 ISO) punishes most pitchers, but has given Pineda nightmares with three home runs and three doubles in just 26 PAs. We generally don’t need much incentive to roster Toronto bats and while the weather might be a turnoff, the matchup certainly is not.

Terrible Pitching Pumps Up an Otherwise Marginal Lineup

Whether you’re playing a four (FanDuel) or five (DraftKings) game slate tonight, the Phillies are the top offense on the board with a team total of 5.43 runs, well above the Blue Jays (5.09) and then the Reds (5.07), the latter only available on DraftKings, before another drop off of more than a quarter of a run to the Astros (4.75). For DraftKings players, the Reds have just a team 79 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but that’s a bit misleading because the lineup does include a few potent bats against LHP and for them, this is a smash spot against Patrick Corbin (RHBs .393 wOBA, .382 xwOBA). There’s really not a positive spin you can put on any portion of Corbin’s season (10.6 K-BB%, 6.11 ERA, 4.66 SIERA, 5.91 xERA). He’s allowed multiple home runs in six of his last 10 starts with 17 home runs on 27 barrels over that span. You can consider Jonathan India (125 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP) and Nick Castellanos (135 wRC+, .259 ISO) top overall bats tonight. Castellanos has a 176 wRC+ and .320 ISO at home this year. Tyler Stephenson (103 wRC+, .144 ISO) and Aristides Aquino (88 wRC+, .224 ISO) may be top values at $3.2K or less.

For those not playing on DraftKings, some of the more interesting bats on the board may belong to Texas Rangers, despite a middling 4.63 implied run line. Since returning to the majors as a starter, Zac Lowther has struck out just eight of 54 (7.4 SwStr%) with seven walks, 37.5 GB% and 93.8 mph EV. All estimators are above five over his 19.2 major league innings this season. The Rangers project to line up entirely right-handed against him, while batters from that side exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Lowther this year and the Baltimore bullpen only enrages the fire with a 7.13 ERA, 5.47 FIP, 5.42 xFIP and 4.93 SIERA over the last 30 days. The Texas lineup includes a lot of small samples and very few good batters against LHP this year, but nearly all are playable in this spot with Andy Ibanez (143 wRC+, .344 xwOBA) and Adolis Garcia (84 wRC+, .207 ISO) perhaps most interesting. Nick Solak (109 wRC+, .347 xwOBA) is a very cheap bat who grades out well against lefties, despite a lack of power (.110 ISO). Alternately, LHBs have a .421 wOBA/.364 xwOBA in just four starts against Glenn Otto, yet Cedric Mullins (156 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP) is the only Baltimore bat projected from that side. Consider him a top bat on this slate.

Top Pitchers, Top Values and an SP2 Pick for Thursday

A four game slate on FanDuel, five with an early start on DraftKings gives us just one $10K pitcher at the head of the pack tonight with nobody else even close. Lance McCullers is one of the few pitchers that you generally know what you’re going to get from a strikeout perspective. He’s struck out between seven and nine batters in 17 of his 26 starts. You also know he’s going to generate more than half his contact on the ground most times (55.5%). He does have a 12.2 BB% over his last five starts and 11.1% on the year, which is part of the reason he’s only hit the seven inning mark three times this year and has quality starts in just half of his attempts, but all estimators are below four even if they are more than a quarter of a run above his 3.11 ERA. He has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (27.5%) and is in an extremely high upside spot. Each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for the Angels exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP this season.

Aaron Nola has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.3%), but costs more than $1K less than McCullers on either site. has a 35.9 K% over his last five starts, but hasn’t completed six innings in any of them, due to a .356 BABIP and 54.6 LOB% over this span. It’s hard to blame bad luck too much with a 91 mph EV though. None the less, his 4.48 ERA is more than a run above all estimators this season with a 25.1 K-BB% and just 5.4% Barrels/BBE, but a 40.4 GB% that’s a career low by more than a touchdown. The matchup is ideal. The Pirates have an 83 wRC+ vs RHP and the projected lineup includes six batters with at least a 24.9 K% vs RHP this year. The park and weather (YELLOW/ORANGE) are not. However, should the forecast improve, Nola can compete with McCullers for the top spot on the board and is the better value here.

Luis Castillo and Steven Matz are the only other pitchers on the board to hit the $8K mark on both sites, though the former is available only on the DraftKings main slate. Castillo struck out 10 of 26 Dodgers with a 71.4 GB% over 6.1 shutout innings last time out. He’s had quality starts in six of his last seven, but still has a 4.08 ERA on the season, despite a 24 K%, 56.1 GB% and just 4.0% Barrels/BBE. Estimators range from a 3.60 xFIP to a 3.99 SIERA. The matchup against Washington is less ideal than you might think though. Only two in the projected lineup exceed a 21.4 K% vs RHP this year. Strikeouts are back up to a league average rate (22.7%) for Matz over his last four starts, but he’s also allowed home runs in consecutive starts for the first time since the break in his last two starts. A 12.1 HR/FB this year is four points below his career rate. He’s done this by throwing his sinker more than 50% of the time, which isn’t really much of a pitch usage shift from previous seasons. The Twins still have some dangerous RHBs with five in the projected lineup above a 24 K% vs LHP this year. Matz may be a bit overpriced.

The only other reasonable option on the slate is more of a low priced SP2 consideration on DraftKings ($6.7K). Glenn Otto’s major league career started out well, but he issued four of his six walks in his last start and has allowed 15 runs over his last 6.2 IP. The good news is that with a 16.9 K-BB% and exactly half his contact on the ground through four starts (87.3 mph EV), his 9.37 ERA is the product of a .408 BABIP and 43.5 LOB% against only the Astros (twice), A’s and Angels. He gets a park downgrade tonight, but the Orioles have just an 85 wRC+ vs RHP and only two batters in the projected lineup below a 23.8 K% against them.

The start of Pirates-Reds will be delayed due to rain Monday

This late start in Cincinnati was expected according to Kevin Roth’s latest update to his MLB weather forecast, and while he does expect the Reds and Pirates to play baseball Monday night, there is always the possibility of a postponement between division rivals if they are impatient waiting for the weather system to pass through the area. The Reds’ official Twitter account didn’t provide an estimated start time or a timeline for further updates moving forward this evening.

Gavin Lux (forearm) scratched Friday

Lux was a late scratch from the Dodgers’ lineup for Friday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Reds due to a right forearm injury. In his absence, Matt Beaty will take over the defensive responsibilities in left field and will slot into the vacated eighth spot in the batting order this evening.